Trading on protection against UK defaults jumped in Q1, says ISDA
Credit default swaps trading reported in the UK rose by 47% to $2.3 trillion, from $1.5 trillion in the first quarter of 2024, trade body ISDA reported.
The volume of insurance protection investors took out on UK corporate bonds in the first quarter illustrates the scale of unease ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping import tariffs on April 2.
While a UK/U.S. trade deal has since been signed, tariff uncertainty is a headwind for corporates globally as a July 9 U.S. deadline for other countries to strike deals looms.
The effective U.S. tariff rate based on announced policies has climbed to 13% from 3% at the start of the year, Goldman Sachs analysts said last week.
Even if some of the harshest levies are rolled back, higher effective tariffs this year could still drive up inflation and cut into company profits and consumer spending.
"Single-name CDS activity was particularly prevalent in the UK, making up 98% of European traded notional, compared to 2% in the EU," the ISDA report said.
This week, trade tensions topped a list of investor concerns alongside deepening worries over a potential global recession, a Bank of America investor survey showed on Monday.
Notional European CDS trading rose 28% to $3 trillion in the first quarter compared to $2.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2024, driven by heightened activity in index CDS, ISDA said.
UK-reported trades represented roughly 75% of total European CDS notional trading, and almost 82% of the total trade count, while the EU accounted for around 25% and 18%, respectively, the report said.
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