logo
#

Latest news with #InvestEra

Why Russia isn't taking Trump's threats seriously
Why Russia isn't taking Trump's threats seriously

AllAfrica

timea minute ago

  • Business
  • AllAfrica

Why Russia isn't taking Trump's threats seriously

US President Donald Trump recently announced that Russia had 50 days to end its war in Ukraine. Otherwise, it would face comprehensive secondary sanctions targeting countries that continued trading with Moscow. On July 15, when describing new measures that would impose 100% tariffs on any country buying Russian exports, Trump warned: 'They are very biting. They are very significant. And they are going to be very bad for the countries involved.' Secondary sanctions do not just target Russia directly; they threaten to cut off access to US markets for any country maintaining trade relationships with Moscow. The economic consequences would impact global supply chains, particularly targeting major economies like China and India, which have become Russia's commercial lifelines. Despite the dire threats, Moscow's stock exchange increased by 2.7% immediately following Trump's announcement. The value of the Russian ruble also strengthened. On a global scale, oil markets appear to have relaxed, suggesting traders see no imminent risks. This market reaction coincided with a nonplussed Moscow. While official statements noted that time was needed for Russia to 'analyze what was said in Washington', other statements suggested that the threats would have no effect. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, for example, declared on social media that 'Russia didn't care' about Trump's threats. The positive market reaction and lack of panic from Russian officials tell us more than simple skepticism about Trump's willingness to follow through. If investors doubted Trump's credibility, we would expect market indifference, not enthusiasm. Instead, the reaction suggests that financial markets expected a stronger response from the US. As Artyom Nikolayev, an analyst from Invest Era, quipped: 'Trump performed below market expectations.' Trump's threat isn't just non-credible – the positive market reaction in Russia suggests it is a gift for Moscow. The 50-day ultimatum is seen not as a deadline but as a reprieve, meaning nearly two months of guaranteed inaction from the US. This will allow Russia more time to press its military advantages in Ukraine without facing new economic pressure. Fifty days is also a long time in American politics, where other crises will almost certainly arise to distract attention from the war. More importantly, Trump's threat actively undermines more serious sanctions efforts that were gaining momentum in the US Congress. A bipartisan bill has been advancing a far more severe sanctions package, proposing secondary tariffs of up to 500% and, crucially, severely limiting the president's ability to waive them. By launching his own initiative, Trump seized control of the policy agenda. Once the ultimatum was issued, US Senate majority leader John Thune announced that any vote on the tougher sanctions bill would be delayed until after the 50-day period. This effectively pauses a more credible threat facing the Kremlin. People stand near the site of a drone strike on a residential building in Lviv, Ukraine, on July 12. Photo: Mykola Tys / EPA via The Conversation This episode highlights a problem for US attempts to use economic statecraft in international relations. Three factors have combined to undermine the credibility of Trump's threats. First, there is Trump's own track record. Financial markets have become so accustomed to the administration announcing severe tariffs only to delay, water down or abandon them that the jibe 'Taco', short for 'Trump always chickens out', has gained traction in financial circles. This reputation for failing to stick to threats means that adversaries and markets alike have learned to price in a high probability of backing down. Second, the administration's credibility is weakened by a lack of domestic political accountability. Research on democratic credibility in international relations emphasizes how domestic constraints – what political scientists call 'audience costs' – can paradoxically strengthen a country's international commitments. When leaders know they will face political punishment from voters or a legislature for backing down from a threat, their threats gain weight. Yet the general reluctance of Congress to constrain Trump undermines this logic. This signals to adversaries that threats can be made without consequence, eroding their effectiveness. And third, effective economic coercion requires a robust diplomatic and bureaucratic apparatus to implement and enforce it. The systematic gutting of the State Department and the freezing of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) programs eliminate the diplomatic infrastructure necessary for sustained economic pressure. Effective sanctions require careful coordination with allies, which the Trump administration has undermined. In addition, effective economic coercion requires planning and credible commitment to enforcement, all of which are impossible without a professional diplomatic corps. Investors and foreign governments appear to be betting that this combination of presidential inconsistency, a lack of domestic accountability and a weakened diplomatic apparatus makes any threat more political theater than genuine economic coercion. The rally in Russian markets was a clear signal that American economic threats are becoming less feared. Patrick E Shea is senior lecturer in international relations and global governance, University of Glasgow This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Russian rouble, stock market gain after Trump's statement on Russia
Russian rouble, stock market gain after Trump's statement on Russia

Yahoo

timea day ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Russian rouble, stock market gain after Trump's statement on Russia

MOSCOW (Reuters) -The Russian rouble reversed losses against the dollar and rose against China's yuan after U.S. President Donald Trump warned he would impose "very severe tariffs" on Russia if no deal on a peaceful settlement is made in 50 days. As of 1605 GMT, the rouble was 0.2% weaker at 78.10 per U.S. dollar after hitting 78.75 during the day, according to LSEG data based on over-the-counter quotes. The rouble is up about 45% against the dollar since the start of the year. Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine on Monday and threatened to hit buyers of Russian exports with sanctions, expressing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin due to the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine. "Trump performed below market expectations," said analyst Artyom Nikolayev from Invest Era. "He gave 50 days during which the Russian leadership can come up with something and extend the negotiation track. Moreover, Trump likes to postpone and extend such deadlines." Against the Chinese yuan, the most traded foreign currency in Russia, the rouble strengthened 0.8% to 10.87 after weakening by over 1% on Friday. The Russian stock market rose 2.7% after Trump's statement, according to the Moscow Stock Exchange.

Russian rouble, stock market gain after Trump's statement on Russia
Russian rouble, stock market gain after Trump's statement on Russia

Reuters

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Reuters

Russian rouble, stock market gain after Trump's statement on Russia

MOSCOW, July 14 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble reversed losses against the dollar and rose against China's yuan after U.S. President Donald Trump warned he would impose "very severe tariffs" on Russia if no deal on a peaceful settlement is made in 50 days. As of 1605 GMT, the rouble was 0.2% weaker at 78.10 per U.S. dollar after hitting 78.75 during the day, according to LSEG data based on over-the-counter quotes. The rouble is up about 45% against the dollar since the start of the year. Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine on Monday and threatened to hit buyers of Russian exports with sanctions, expressing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin due to the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine. "Trump performed below market expectations," said analyst Artyom Nikolayev from Invest Era. "He gave 50 days during which the Russian leadership can come up with something and extend the negotiation track. Moreover, Trump likes to postpone and extend such deadlines." Against the Chinese yuan, the most traded foreign currency in Russia, the rouble strengthened 0.8% to 10.87 after weakening by over 1% on Friday. The Russian stock market rose 2.7% after Trump's statement, according to the Moscow Stock Exchange.

In reversal, Trump arms Ukraine & threatens sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil
In reversal, Trump arms Ukraine & threatens sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil

Qatar Tribune

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Qatar Tribune

In reversal, Trump arms Ukraine & threatens sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil

Kiev/Washingthon US President Donald Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine on Monday, and threatened to hit buyers of Russian exports with sanctions unless Russia agrees a peace deal in 50 days, a major shift in policy brought on by frustration with Moscow. Sitting side-by-side with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office, Trump told reporters that he was disappointed in Russian President Vladimir Putin. Billions of dollars in weapons would be distributed to Ukraine, he said. 'We're going to make top-of-the-line weapons, and they'll be sent to NATO,' Trump said, adding that Washington's NATO allies would pay for the weapons. The weapons would include Patriot air defence missiles, which Ukraine has urgently sought to defend its cities from Russian air strikes. 'It's a full complement with the batteries,' Trump said. 'We're going to have some come very soon, within days... a couple of the countries that have Patriots are going to swap over and will replace the Patriots with the ones they have.' Some or all of 17 Patriot batteries ordered by other countries could be sent to Ukraine 'very quickly', he said. His threat to impose so-called secondary sanctions on Russia, if carried out, would be a major shift in Western sanctions policy. Lawmakers from both political parties in the United States are pushing for a bill that would authorise such measures, targeting other countries that buy Russian oil. Throughout the more than three-year-old war, Western countries have cut off most of their own financial ties to Moscow, but have held back from taking steps that would restrict Russia from selling its oil elsewhere. That has allowed Moscow to continue earning hundreds of billions of dollars from shipping oil to buyers such as China and India. 'We're going to be doing secondary tariffs,' Trump said. 'If we don't have a deal in 50 days, it's very simple, and they'll be at 100%.' A White House official said Trump was referring to 100% tariffs on Russian goods as well as secondary sanctions on other countries that buy its exports. Still, Trump's announcement of a 50-day grace period was greeted with relief by investors in Russia, where the rouble recovered from earlier losses and stock markets rose. 'Trump performed below market expectations. He gave 50 days during which the Russian leadership can come up with something and extend the negotiation track. Moreover, Trump likes to postpone and extend such deadlines,' said analyst Artyom Nikolayev from Invest Era, a financial information firm. Trump, who returned to power this year promising a quick end to the war, said his shift was motivated by increasing frustration with Putin, who, he said, had talked about peace but continued to strike Ukrainian cities. 'We actually had probably four times a deal. And then the deal wouldn't happen because bombs would be thrown out that night and you'd say we're not making any deals,' Trump said. Since returning to the White House, Trump has sought rapprochement with Moscow, speaking several times with Putin. His administration has pulled back from pro-Ukrainian policies such as backing Kiev's membership in NATO and demanding Russia withdraw from all Ukrainian territory. But so far, Putin has yet to accept a proposal from Trump for an unconditional ceasefire, which was quickly endorsed by Kiev. Recent days have seen Russia use hundreds of drones to attack Ukrainian cities. Trump vented his frustration last week, saying: 'We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin.' Earlier on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held talks with Trump's envoy Keith Kellogg.

Trump threatens Russia sanctions, unveils Ukraine weapons plan
Trump threatens Russia sanctions, unveils Ukraine weapons plan

Otago Daily Times

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Otago Daily Times

Trump threatens Russia sanctions, unveils Ukraine weapons plan

US President Donald Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine on Monday, and threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Russia agrees a peace deal, a major policy shift brought on by frustration with Moscow's ongoing attacks on its neighbor. But Trump's threat of sanctions came with a 50-day grace period, a move that was welcomed by investors in Russia where the rouble recovered from earlier losses and stock markets rose. Sitting with Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office, Trump told reporters he was disappointed in Russian President Vladimir Putin and that billions of dollars of US weapons would go to Ukraine. "We're going to make top-of-the-line weapons, and they'll be sent to Nato," Trump said, adding that Washington's Nato allies would pay for them. The weapons would include Patriot air defence missiles Ukraine has urgently sought. "It's a full complement with the batteries," Trump said. "We're going to have some come very soon, within days... a couple of the countries that have Patriots are going to swap over and will replace the Patriots with the ones they have." Some or all of 17 Patriot batteries ordered by other countries could be sent to Ukraine "very quickly", he said. Rutte said Germany, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Canada all wanted to be a part of rearming Ukraine. Trump's threat to impose so-called secondary sanctions on Russia, if carried out, would be a major shift in Western sanctions policy. Lawmakers from both US political parties are pushing for a bill that would authorise such measures, targeting other countries that buy Russian oil. Throughout the more than three-year-old war, Western countries have cut most of their own financial ties to Moscow, but have held back from taking steps that would restrict Russia from selling its oil elsewhere. That has allowed Moscow to continue earning hundreds of billions of dollars from shipping oil to buyers such as China and India. "We're going to be doing secondary tariffs," Trump said. "If we don't have a deal in 50 days, it's very simple, and they'll be at 100%." A White House official said Trump was referring to 100% tariffs on Russian goods as well as secondary sanctions on other countries that buy its exports. Eighty-five of the 100 US senators are co-sponsoring a bill that would give Trump the authority to impose 500% tariffs on any country that helps Russia, but the chamber's Republican leaders have been waiting for Trump to give them the go-ahead for a vote. In Kyiv, people welcomed the announcement but some remained cautious about Trump's intentions. 'I am pleased that finally European politicians, with their patience and convictions, have slightly swayed him (Trump) to our side, because from the very beginning it was clear that he did not really want to help us,' said Denys Podilchuk, a 39-year-old dentist in Kyiv. GRACE PERIOD Artyom Nikolayev, an analyst from financial information firm Invest Era, said Trump did not go as far as Russian markets had feared. "Trump performed below market expectations. He gave 50 days during which the Russian leadership can come up with something and extend the negotiation track. Moreover, Trump likes to postpone and extend such deadlines," he said. Asked about Trump's remarks, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said an immediate ceasefire was needed to pave the way for a political solution and "whatever can contribute to these objectives will, of course, be important if it is done in line with international law." Since returning to the White House promising a quick end to the war, Trump has sought rapprochement with Moscow, speaking several times with Putin. His administration has pulled back from pro-Ukrainian policies such as backing Kyiv's membership in Nato and demanding Russia withdraw from all Ukrainian territory. But Putin has yet to accept a proposal from Trump for an unconditional ceasefire, which was quickly endorsed by Kyiv. Recent days have seen Russia use hundreds of drones to attack Ukrainian cities. Trump said his shift was motivated by frustration with Putin, who talked about peace but continued to strike Ukrainian cities. "I don't want to say he's an assassin, but he's a tough guy," he said. "We actually had probably four times a deal. And then the deal wouldn't happen because bombs would be thrown out that night and you'd say we're not making any deals," he said. Last week he said, "We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin." US Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Trump's announcement was "positive, but overdue" and he needed to commit "to a sustained flow of security assistance to Ukraine over the long term" if he wanted Putin to negotiate and the war to end. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held talks with Trump's envoy Keith Kellogg on Monday. Zelenskiy said they discussed "the path to peace and what we can practically do together to bring it closer", including "strengthening Ukraine's air defence, joint production and procurement of defence weapons in collaboration with Europe." An air-raid alert was declared in Kyiv shortly after Zelenskiy's talks with Kellogg. Separately on Monday, Zelenskiy said he would replace his long-serving Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal with Shmyhal's first deputy, Yulia Svyrydenko, an economist who played a key role in negotiations between Kyiv and Washington on a minerals deal. Her appointment will require parliamentary approval. Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022 and holds about one-fifth of Ukraine. Its forces are slowly advancing in eastern Ukraine and Moscow shows no sign of abandoning its main war goals.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store