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UPI
3 days ago
- Climate
- UPI
Erin to rapidly strengthen, reach major hurricane status this weekend
1 of 2 | Hurricane Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane by 2 a.m. Sunday. Tracking by the National Hurricane Center Aug. 15 (UPI) -- Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season on Friday morning and is forecast to rapidly strengthen as it heads near the Leeward Islands, and later Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. In its 10 a.m. EDT update, the National Hurricane Center said Erin became a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph -- just 2 mph above the tropical storm designation. In the 4 p.m. update, Erin remained at 75 mph. Erin was 365 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, and was moving west-northwest at 17 mph in warm waters. The NHC said the motion is expected to continue through the weekend with some decrease in forward speed. With rapid strengthening the next two to three days, Eric is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend with winds at least 111 mph. On the forecast track, Erin is likely to go just north of the Northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Erin is forecast to reach Category 4 at 130 mph on Monday, the NHC said. By 2 p.m., Wednesday, the storm was forecast to be a few hundred miles west of Bermuda and outside the big tracking cone. "While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the East coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing, there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along western Atlantic beaches next week," NHC forecaster Jack Beven wrote in a discussion. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for Anguilla and Barbuda, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 75 miles from the center, and tropical-force winds outward to 115 miles. Marine warnings are in effect for the Atlantic, Caribbean and southwest Atlantic and the southwest North Atlantic. The NHC said Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands -- which include Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Martin, St. Barts, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat -- should expect heavy rainfall Friday night through Sunday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast with isolated totals of 6 inches. It could lead to flash and urban flooding, along with landslides and mudslides. Swells will begin affecting this area and will spread to the western Atlantic next week. Wind gusts or tropical storm-force winds are possible in rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. "Do not underestimate the power of a major hurricane even passing by offshore," Alex DaSilva, the lead hurricane expert with AccuWeather, said. "These massive storms produce very rough surf and lethal rip currents that can impact beaches even hundreds of miles away." The previous four named Atlantic storms this year were Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. None of them became hurricanes, and Chantal was the only one to make landfall in the United States, causing significant flooding in North Carolina. Helene struck that state last year as a tropical storm, causing an estimated $53 billion in damage, after hitting western Florida as a Category 4 hurricane. Four other hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2024: Beryl, Debby, Francine and Milton.
UPI
5 days ago
- Climate
- UPI
Tropical Storm Erin forecast to be hurricane by Friday
Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to become a hurricane by 2 a.m. Friday and a major one by 2 p.m. Sunday. Image by National Hurricane Center Aug. 13 (UPI) -- Tropical Storm Erin is slightly intensifying and forecast to become a hurricane on Friday morning over the central tropical Atlantic with a chance of ultimately affecting the U.S. East Coast, the Bahamas and Bermuda next week, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday. For the first time since Erin became a tropical storm Monday morning, intensity increased, though just 5 mph, to maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with gradual strengthening during the next two days forecast, the NHC said in its 5 p.m. EDT update. Forecasters said Erin will become a major hurricane, with winds of at least 111 mph, by 2 p.m. Sunday. It would be the first hurricane of the Atlantic season with winds at least 74 mph. Beryl was the first hurricane last year on June 24. The storm is about 1,200 miles from east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Erin was moving westward at 17 mph and will shift to a north-westward track beginning Thursday night and into the weekend, the NHC said. The NHC's "cone" doesn't track Erin past Monday, and NHC forecasters remind that they have an average error of 150 to 214 miles at days four and five. In the latest discussion, NHC forecaster Jack Beven said there is a "greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda." But he said: "The risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing." By this weekend, swells are forecast to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the NHC said. Alex Sosnowsky, an AccuWeather senior forecaster, said there is concern that residents, visitors, cruise lines, and shipping and fishing ventures "could pass paths with a powerful hurricane." With a track farther to the east, Bermuda could be directly in the path as a major hurricane. He said a farther west scenario would mean a greater risk of strong winds, rain and coastal flooding in the U.S., including eastern North Carolina, Long Island, New York and southeastern New England. "Families heading to U.S. Atlantic beaches for a late-summer vacation next week need to be extremely cautious when venturing into the surf," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "More than 50 people have lost their lives to rip currents and rough surf at beaches across the country so far this year, without any major hurricane nearby." There are no warnings or coastal watches in effect. But those in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should monitor Erin's progress. The previous four named Atlantic storms this year were Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. None of them became hurricanes, and Chantal was the only one to make landfall in the United States, causing significant flooding in North Carolina. Helene struck that state last year as a tropical storm, causing an estimated $53 billion in damage, after hitting western Florida as a Category 4 hurricane. Four other hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2024: Beryl, Debby, Francine and Milton.
New York Post
5 days ago
- Climate
- New York Post
Tropical Storm Erin set to become first hurricane of the season as US Virgin Islands prepare for the worst
Preparations for potential impacts from Tropical Storm Erin are underway in the U.S. Virgin Islands as the system continues to become better organized and remains on track to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Officials in the U.S. Virgin Islands said territory-wide sandbag distribution for hurricane season was set to begin in a matter of days, but with Tropical Storm Erin spinning across the Atlantic Ocean, those plans were accelerated. 'Due to the projected impact of Tropical Storm Erin on the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency (VITEMA), in partnership with the Virgin Islands Fire and Emergency Services, the Department of Public Works, the Office of ADA Coordinator, and the Department of Human Services, has accelerated the territory-wide sandbag distribution program,' officials said in a Facebook post. 'While the exact impact of Tropical Storm Erin remains uncertain at this time, VITEMA is taking proactive measures to ensure all residents have access to critical hurricane preparedness resources before the storm's arrival.' Officials said this accelerated distribution represents the only sandbag distribution for the 2025 hurricane season. 6 This image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Erin on Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025. AP 'We strongly encourage all residents to take advantage of this opportunity to protect their homes and property,' officials said. Hurricane Hunters are set to fly into Tropical Storm Erin on Thursday to try and get a better understanding of the organizing storm, which forecasters say could become a major hurricane (Category 3 or greater) over the weekend. This comes after the storm, which was first dubbed Invest 97L, caused several deaths in the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. 6 The US Virgin Islands are accelerating their sandbag distribution because of Tropical Storm Erin. Mario Hoesel – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Storm Erin had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, and strengthening was set to begin later on Wednesday afternoon or on Wednesday night. It's expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical Storm Erin is located more than 1,300 miles to the east of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving off to the west at 17 mph. 6 Major strengthening is likely with Tropical Storm Erin. FOX Weather The NHC said that general motion was expected to continue into Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion starting on Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. On that track, the NHC said the center of Tropical Storm Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. 'Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin,' the NHC said. 6 Jack Beven, Senior Hurricane Specialist, tracks Tropical Storm Erin on August 13, 2025 at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. Getty Images Swells generated by Tropical Storm Erin are expected to begin impacting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. Those swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions at local beaches. At least 7 dead in Cabo Verde islands Before becoming Tropical Storm Erin, the system brought torrential rain and thunderstorms to the Cabo Verde, or Cape Verde, islands when it was Invest 97L. 6 Swells generated by Tropical Storm Erin are expected to begin impacting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. John – Local officials said at least seven people, including children, were killed. 'The Ministry of Education expresses its deepest sorrow for the tragic loss of seven lives, including four children, on the island of São Vincent,' the Ministry of Education said in a translated Facebook post. The Ministry went on to say 'in this time of mourning and dismay, the pain of the bereaved families is the pain of the entire nation.' 6 Lisa Bucci, Hurricane Specialist, works near screens showing Tropical Storm Erin as they continue to track its progress on August 13, 2025 at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. Getty Images Government officials said they declared two days of national mourning due to the loss of human lives and significant material damage caused by the passage of the system. National Hurricane Center monitoring two other areas across the basin Forecasters at the NHC have also highlighted a disturbance in the northern Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea for development, but chances for further organization remain low. The disturbance in the North Atlantic is heading away from the U.S. while the disturbance in parts of the Caribbean and the Gulf will see a significant amount of land interaction, limiting its organization. Over the weekend, a few scattered showers may make it into the Brownsville, Texas region, but accumulations are expected to remain below one inch.
Yahoo
14-04-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane Milton postmortem: 45 tornadoes, 178 mph winds, confounding forecast
The tropical spin that bumbled off Africa on Sept. 14 did so unremarkably, a breezy pinwheel lacking both ambition and combustion. But then it merged with a trough of low pressure and absorbed a second tropical wave and sauntered across the Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf, where it grew, sputtered, recovered, and deepened into a boastful Category 5 hurricane with winds unmatched during the 2024 storm season. The system, which made landfall on Siesta Key on Oct. 10 after weakening to a Cat 3, was the last to bear the name Milton. It was the first tropical cyclone in 30 years of records to produce more than one EF3 tornado. Its staggeringly low minimum pressure of 895 mb ranked fourth-lowest on record, tying 2005's Hurricane Rita. It boiled with tornadoes, 45 in all. And from its earliest embryonic stirrings in the soupy-warm Gulf, it confounded forecasters, who nailed its track but missed when and where it would form and the magnitude of its rapid intensification. 'We saw it coming way too early and had trouble pinning it down,' said Jack Beven, senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. 'There was a very complex weather pattern that included low pressure and a frontal system and strong shear not too far away. If things had worked out a little differently, Milton wouldn't have gotten near as strong as it did.' Hurricane season 2024: Rapid intensification forecasts improve, and then there was Otis Beven was the lead writer for the National Hurricane Center's Milton postmortem report, a routine analysis performed on every tropical cyclone that includes a review of forecast accuracy, top wind speeds, storm surge levels, damages and deaths. Beven said Milton was one of the more challenging tropical cyclones to forecast in a season that ended with 18 named storms because of how quickly it rapidly intensified. While Hurricane Beryl toppled records for its early-season ferocity, zooming to a Cat 5 on July 1 and eventually gaining wind speeds of 167 mph, Milton's top winds reached 178 mph on Oct. 7 while it was in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, now called the Gulf of America by the U.S. government. Milton gained about 90 mph in 24 hours, more than doubling the benchmark for rapid intensification. 'It had been a very long time since we saw a hurricane go below 900 mb pressure in the Atlantic,' said AccuWeather hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva. 'When a storm starts undergoing rapid intensification, the sky is the limit.' Air pressure inside a hurricane is a measure of the storm's intensity, the amount of power in the vacuum formed by winds roaring toward the eye. Hurricane Wilma in 2005 still holds the record for the lowest pressure at 888 mb. DaSilva also noted the chaotic atmosphere during Milton's reign with several weather patterns jostling in the Gulf as the season deepened into fall. Those included a trough dipping into the Gulf that intercepted Milton, DaSilva said. The trough is also an ingredient that he believes added to the tornado outbreak that hit South and Central Florida ahead of Milton's landfall. Forty-five twisters dripped out of Milton-tormented skies, gouging paths as long as 30 miles in Palm Beach County, tossing cars, shredding homes and killing six people in the Spanish Lakes Country Club Village mobile-home community in Fort Pierce. Milton's approach from the west to southwest put much of South Florida and the Treasure Coast in its dangerous right front quadrant, where the forward motion of the hurricane, combined with its twisting winds, can be more volatile. Hurricane season: 5 tips to stay sane and safe in face of frightful forecast The track also carried in moisture-rich air on south winds and gave the thunderstorms in Milton's outer rain bands ample time over heated land to spiral into daunting supercells with sucking updrafts. As daytime temperatures warmed, the atmosphere became more unstable with rapidly rising air feeding into the mix. A lingering boundary that had brought days of drenching rain ahead of Milton and westerly winds high in the atmosphere from the trough added to the atmospheric mishmash. 'There was certainly a sense of awe,' said Robert Molleda, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service office in Miami. 'Every tornado was warned for. Every single one had several minutes of advance notice, so it was definitely a historic event.' From about 9:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. on Oct. 9, the NWS Miami office issued 49 tornado warnings, including the EF3 in Palm Beach County that was given the unusual label as a "potentially dangerous situation." Molleda said one meteorologist worked with the Department of Transportation to manipulate highway cameras so they could better track the tornadoes. In the end, 15 tornadoes hit the seven-county region the Miami NWS covers from Glades to Monroe counties. That more than doubled the previous record of seven in a single day. More: Hurricane Helene storm surge spared few areas along the Gulf Coast in epic, terrible event Statewide, the outbreak included three EF3 tornadoes, 6 EF2 tornadoes, 25 EF1 tornadoes and 7 EF0 tornadoes. Hurricane Beryl produced 67 tornadoes across six states and Canada. 'But that was over a three-day period,' Beven said. 'Milton produced 45 over 12 hours.' Beryl is in fifth place for tornado-producing tropical cyclones behind 2004's Ivan (118), Bulah of 1967 (115), Frances of 2004 (103) and 2005's Rita (97). Milton also sliced the Peninsula in half, entering south of Tampa Bay and leaving near Port Canaveral. On the north side of the storm, heavy rainfall — 20.4 inches near St. Petersburg — contributed to two freshwater flooding deaths. Storm surge of up to 9 feet above ground level barreled ashore from Venice south to Boca Grande, with an isolated peak of up to 10 feet near Manasota Key. But there were no tornadoes north of Milton's central track. Six months after Milton, Marcel Strunk and his wife are still putting their home in Avenir back together after its brush with the EF-3 tornado that churned through at about 5 p.m. on Oct. 9. Strunk was in South Florida for the devastating 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons but wasn't expecting a tornado from a storm making landfall more than 100 miles away. He said his wife was out shopping when the tornado warning sounded. He called her and told her not to come home. 'I stepped inside just as the tornado arrived and 10 seconds later, it was gone,' Strunk said. He said he's more aware now of what watches and warnings mean for this hurricane season. A watch means the ingredients are there for a tornado, a warning means a tornado is imminent or has already formed. Is he concerned for this hurricane season? 'What are the chances you get hit by a tornado in Florida? Very slim,' Strunk said. 'We've got that covered. Been there, done that.' Milton's death toll reached a total of 42, including 15 direct deaths, according to the NHC report. The World Meteorological Organization retired the names Beryl, Helene and Milton from the rotating list of storm names used each hurricane season because of the torment they caused. They were replaced with Brianna, Holly, and Miguel in the 2030 list of names. Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@ Help support our local journalism, subscribe today. This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane Milton tornado outbreak part of strongest storm of 2024 season
