Hurricane Milton postmortem: 45 tornadoes, 178 mph winds, confounding forecast

Yahoo

14-04-2025

The tropical spin that bumbled off Africa on Sept. 14 did so unremarkably, a breezy pinwheel lacking both ambition and combustion.
But then it merged with a trough of low pressure and absorbed a second tropical wave and sauntered across the Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf, where it grew, sputtered, recovered, and deepened into a boastful Category 5 hurricane with winds unmatched during the 2024 storm season.
The system, which made landfall on Siesta Key on Oct. 10 after weakening to a Cat 3, was the last to bear the name Milton.
It was the first tropical cyclone in 30 years of records to produce more than one EF3 tornado. Its staggeringly low minimum pressure of 895 mb ranked fourth-lowest on record, tying 2005's Hurricane Rita. It boiled with tornadoes, 45 in all.
And from its earliest embryonic stirrings in the soupy-warm Gulf, it confounded forecasters, who nailed its track but missed when and where it would form and the magnitude of its rapid intensification.
'We saw it coming way too early and had trouble pinning it down,' said Jack Beven, senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. 'There was a very complex weather pattern that included low pressure and a frontal system and strong shear not too far away. If things had worked out a little differently, Milton wouldn't have gotten near as strong as it did.'
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Beven was the lead writer for the National Hurricane Center's Milton postmortem report, a routine analysis performed on every tropical cyclone that includes a review of forecast accuracy, top wind speeds, storm surge levels, damages and deaths.
Beven said Milton was one of the more challenging tropical cyclones to forecast in a season that ended with 18 named storms because of how quickly it rapidly intensified.
While Hurricane Beryl toppled records for its early-season ferocity, zooming to a Cat 5 on July 1 and eventually gaining wind speeds of 167 mph, Milton's top winds reached 178 mph on Oct. 7 while it was in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, now called the Gulf of America by the U.S. government.
Milton gained about 90 mph in 24 hours, more than doubling the benchmark for rapid intensification.
'It had been a very long time since we saw a hurricane go below 900 mb pressure in the Atlantic,' said AccuWeather hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva. 'When a storm starts undergoing rapid intensification, the sky is the limit.'
Air pressure inside a hurricane is a measure of the storm's intensity, the amount of power in the vacuum formed by winds roaring toward the eye.
Hurricane Wilma in 2005 still holds the record for the lowest pressure at 888 mb.
DaSilva also noted the chaotic atmosphere during Milton's reign with several weather patterns jostling in the Gulf as the season deepened into fall.
Those included a trough dipping into the Gulf that intercepted Milton, DaSilva said.
The trough is also an ingredient that he believes added to the tornado outbreak that hit South and Central Florida ahead of Milton's landfall.
Forty-five twisters dripped out of Milton-tormented skies, gouging paths as long as 30 miles in Palm Beach County, tossing cars, shredding homes and killing six people in the Spanish Lakes Country Club Village mobile-home community in Fort Pierce.
Milton's approach from the west to southwest put much of South Florida and the Treasure Coast in its dangerous right front quadrant, where the forward motion of the hurricane, combined with its twisting winds, can be more volatile.
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The track also carried in moisture-rich air on south winds and gave the thunderstorms in Milton's outer rain bands ample time over heated land to spiral into daunting supercells with sucking updrafts. As daytime temperatures warmed, the atmosphere became more unstable with rapidly rising air feeding into the mix.
A lingering boundary that had brought days of drenching rain ahead of Milton and westerly winds high in the atmosphere from the trough added to the atmospheric mishmash.
'There was certainly a sense of awe,' said Robert Molleda, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service office in Miami. 'Every tornado was warned for. Every single one had several minutes of advance notice, so it was definitely a historic event.'
From about 9:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. on Oct. 9, the NWS Miami office issued 49 tornado warnings, including the EF3 in Palm Beach County that was given the unusual label as a "potentially dangerous situation."
Molleda said one meteorologist worked with the Department of Transportation to manipulate highway cameras so they could better track the tornadoes.
In the end, 15 tornadoes hit the seven-county region the Miami NWS covers from Glades to Monroe counties. That more than doubled the previous record of seven in a single day.
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Statewide, the outbreak included three EF3 tornadoes, 6 EF2 tornadoes, 25 EF1 tornadoes and 7 EF0 tornadoes.
Hurricane Beryl produced 67 tornadoes across six states and Canada.
'But that was over a three-day period,' Beven said. 'Milton produced 45 over 12 hours.'
Beryl is in fifth place for tornado-producing tropical cyclones behind 2004's Ivan (118), Bulah of 1967 (115), Frances of 2004 (103) and 2005's Rita (97).
Milton also sliced the Peninsula in half, entering south of Tampa Bay and leaving near Port Canaveral. On the north side of the storm, heavy rainfall — 20.4 inches near St. Petersburg — contributed to two freshwater flooding deaths.
Storm surge of up to 9 feet above ground level barreled ashore from Venice south to Boca Grande, with an isolated peak of up to 10 feet near Manasota Key.
But there were no tornadoes north of Milton's central track.
Six months after Milton, Marcel Strunk and his wife are still putting their home in Avenir back together after its brush with the EF-3 tornado that churned through at about 5 p.m. on Oct. 9.
Strunk was in South Florida for the devastating 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons but wasn't expecting a tornado from a storm making landfall more than 100 miles away. He said his wife was out shopping when the tornado warning sounded. He called her and told her not to come home.
'I stepped inside just as the tornado arrived and 10 seconds later, it was gone,' Strunk said.
He said he's more aware now of what watches and warnings mean for this hurricane season. A watch means the ingredients are there for a tornado, a warning means a tornado is imminent or has already formed.
Is he concerned for this hurricane season?
'What are the chances you get hit by a tornado in Florida? Very slim,' Strunk said. 'We've got that covered. Been there, done that.'
Milton's death toll reached a total of 42, including 15 direct deaths, according to the NHC report.
The World Meteorological Organization retired the names Beryl, Helene and Milton from the rotating list of storm names used each hurricane season because of the torment they caused. They were replaced with Brianna, Holly, and Miguel in the 2030 list of names.
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to [e-mail]. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane Milton tornado outbreak part of strongest storm of 2024 season