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Yahoo
18 hours ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Fantasy Football: These wide receivers are undergoing huge changes this season — and that's why you should draft them
Every year in fantasy football, wide receivers get reshuffled by the situations around them. A change at quarterback, a new play-caller or a different role can turn steady producers into fantasy difference-makers overnight. We have a group of wideouts with a shift in their 2025 environments that sets them up for expanded upside. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] George Pickens moves from one of the worst passing situations in the league to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Calvin Ridley now has a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback in Cam Ward. Jakobi Meyers gets Geno Smith and Chip Kelly to drive efficiency. And in Kansas City, an offense that has lacked true explosiveness since Tyreek Hill finally found its spark in Xavier Worthy. Let's go deep on each of these changes. Dallas Cowboys: George Pickens George Pickens has already proven he can ball, notching a 1,000-yard season in 2023, but the situation around him has been rough. Last year's offensive environment in Pittsburgh was flat-out brutal with bottom-tier efficiency, poor quarterback play and a catchable target rate that ranked outside the top 70. He still pulled in 59 catches for 900 yards and three scores, but his fantasy output of 11.7 points per game sat at WR35 when his opportunity and air yards profile suggested much more. Now everything changes. Pickens joins Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys, easily the best quarterback situation of his career. Dallas has been searching for a true No. 2 behind CeeDee Lamb, and Pickens' skill set makes him the perfect fit. The reception heat map shows it clearly — Lamb wins all over the formation while Pickens thrives as a vertical outside threat. They are going to complement each other perfectly. The synergy with Dak is undeniable. From 2022 through 2024, Prescott's most successful throws came on hitch routes, out routes and go balls. Pickens' top routes last season? Go, hitch and out. That is not just overlap, that is alignment. You are pairing one of the league's most accurate quarterbacks on those concepts with a wideout who wins on the exact same routes. The usage data is where it gets exciting. Pickens posted a Trinity Score — which blends target share, air yard share, first downs, yards per route run and more into one metric that shows how much a player truly matters in an offense (you can learn more about this metric on DD Fantasy Football) — of 7.77 with an efficiency-adjusted mark of 7.26. For 2025, that projects a fantasy range of outcomes from 13.6 points per game on the low end to 18.6 on the high end with a median of 15.6. That kind of usage lines up with recent seasons from Davante Adams in 2023, Terry McLaurin in 2022 and even ceiling years from Deebo Samuel Sr. in 2021, Tyreek Hill in 2020 and Ja'Marr Chase in 2021. The problem has never been Pickens, it has been everything around him. Now, with Prescott elevating the unit and defenses forced to pick their poison between Lamb and Pickens, this is a massive situation upgrade. If he stays healthy, 2025 could be the breakout year we have been waiting for. Pickens has always had the talent but now he finally has the quarterback and offensive ecosystem to put it all together. Do not be surprised if he posts the best numbers of his career in Dallas. Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Worthy Xavier Worthy started his rookie year slow but he flipped the script when it mattered most. From Week 12 through Kansas City's playoff run the offense looked completely different with him as the spark. His postseason was a statement with eight catches for 157 yards and two touchdowns in the Super Bowl and another six for 85 yards and a score in the AFC Championship Game. The Kansas City Chiefs didn't hoist the Lombardi but let's be real — they don't even get there without Worthy. That's not role player production, that's No. 1 option work. Kansas City has been searching for its next Tyreek Hill and Worthy has the wheels to fill that void. At over 22 MPH he is the fastest man in the league and Andy Reid's offense unlocked it down the stretch. If that postseason heater becomes the norm we are talking Pro Bowl upside in just his second season. The usage data tells the story. Worthy's Trinity Score for the 2025 season projects a range of outcomes from 10.8 points per game on the low end to 17.5 points per game on the high end with a median of 13.5. That level of involvement matches the recent usage seasons of Terry McLaurin in 2024, Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2024 and Deebo Samuel Sr. in 2023. Both Rashee Rice and Worthy are going to be major pieces of this passing game, but with Rice staring down a suspension, don't be shocked if we see Worthy take that second-year leap and cement himself as one of the engines of this offense. Tennessee Titans: Calvin Ridley Calvin Ridley put up another 1,000-yard season in 2024 but he did it in an offense with shaky quarterback play and no real target competition. Defenses keyed in on him and he still won. Reception Perception charted him with a 73.2% success rate vs man, 79.4% vs zone and 78.5% vs press, ranking in the 85th percentile. That's elite separation no matter how you slice it and a reminder that Ridley can still beat coverage at a high level. The usage numbers tell the same story. Ridley posted a 6.62 Trinity Score with an efficiency-adjusted mark of 6.61. That level of involvement projects to 10.7 points per game on the low end, 13.6 in the median range and 15.4 on the high end. Those usage comps line up with players like Brandon Aiyuk in 2020 and 2022 and Mike Evans in 2021. In other words, even in a rough offensive environment, Ridley operated like a WR2 by usage and efficiency. Now the Titans bring in Cam Ward, the No. 1 overall pick, and this is the quarterback upgrade that can unlock Ridley again. Ward's profile at Miami showed one of the highest explosive-play rates in the country with over nine yards per attempt and a 67.8% completion rate. Several of Ridley's best routes — digs, slants and curls — match perfectly with Ward's strengths as a passer. That is a natural connection waiting to happen. Ridley is not going to be the sexiest pick on draft day but the separation metrics and Trinity data both show he still has every tool to deliver. Add in a quarterback who can actually capitalize and you've got a veteran wideout with a real shot to climb into the top-15 in 2025. Las Vegas Raiders: Jakobi Meyers Jakobi Meyers has quietly been one of the most reliable receivers in football but he's dealt with a carousel of quarterbacks. Enter Geno Smith. Paired with Chip Kelly's aggressive downfield system, Meyers is set up for a career-best efficiency season even if his raw targets dip. The Raiders are betting on Smith to finally fix their revolving door at quarterback and there's reason for optimism. Since 2022, he ranks fourth in the league in completion percentage (68.5%) and passing yards (12,226) while tossing 73 touchdowns in that span. Smith has already proven in Seattle that he can elevate the talent around him and now he gets to work with one of the NFL's steadiest pass catchers. Meyers has been nothing but dependable in Silver and Black, recording 158 receptions for 1,834 yards and 12 touchdowns in 31 games. His sure hands (just a 1.3% drop rate) and his first 1,000-yard season in 2024 highlight how consistent he's been despite chaos under center. Even better, his fantasy scoring has climbed every year — 12.9 points per game in 2022 (WR29), 13.7 in 2023 (WR24) and 14.5 last season (WR20). That steady progression speaks to his reliability and, with Geno now under center, he's set up to crack the top 20 range or higher. Make no mistake, Brock Bowers is the focal point of this passing game. But Meyers is right behind him in the pecking order and with rookie Ashton Jeanty bringing balance to the ground game, efficiency could push Meyers even higher in 2025. He's shaping up as one of the safest bets to smash his ADP and give you weekly production you can bank on. The Final Word These receivers are not new names. They are proven talents stepping into situations that can finally showcase what they do best. Pickens with Prescott. Ridley with Ward. Meyers with Geno. Worthy bringing back the explosive plays Kansas City has been missing. You do not win leagues by chasing boring floor plays. You win by targeting the wideouts whose environments are about to fuel a breakout. If you want upside that can swing 2025 in your favor, these are the wideouts to plant your flag on.
Yahoo
12-08-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Biggest fantasy football ADP risers/fallers after the first week of NFL preseason
It's Week 2 of our series covering the biggest Risers and Fallers in Yahoo ADP, and we've got some big names on the move heading into mid-August and the heart of fantasy football draft season. For the full context, you can check out the first piece here. Let's get right into it! [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] 5 Biggest ADP Risers Honorable Mentions Jakobi Meyers jumped more than a round in ADP and needs to be acknowledged as a quietly underrated WR3 or better. He saw 129 targets and finished as the WR23 last year, and theoretically got a QB upgrade and little relevant competition for volume this offseason. ... While Patriots QB Drake Maye didn't do much as a passer on his single preseason drive, he did run the ball twice for 16 yards and a touchdown, an excellent reminder of the rushing upside that makes him a QB1 consideration. ... With Chris Godwin's injury-spurred fall continuing to shift the Bucs' passing-game projections, rookie Emeka Egbuka is gaining quite a bit of steam. He's extremely talented and could have a WR2 ceiling if he sees enough volume in Year 1. ... Lastly, take a long look at Tank Bigsby in the 10th round. All signs out of camp suggest he will be the primary ball-carrier for a potential breakout offense, but even after a solid climb, he's being drafted as the RB33. 5. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots, RB (ADP -14.56) Speaking of backs in line to be the primary ball-carrier in an ascending offense, even despite an explosive rookie behind him, Stevenson was one of the more surprising risers this week. While TreVeyon Henderson drew all the eyes with his 100-yard return touchdown on the opening kickoff of the preseason game against Washington, Stevenson put together seven carries for 36 yards (5.1 per carry). There's no doubt that Henderson is the more versatile and explosive player, but distracted drafters may have been ignoring Stevenson's expected workload as a result. After climbing more than a round in ADP, he's now the RB34 at the back of the single-digit rounds. I believe Henderson will see significant volume and honestly prefer him at his rising RB26 price over Stevenson at RB34 ... but we shouldn't ignore the veteran and his potential for 200+ carries and several touchdowns in the middle rounds. 4. J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers, RB (ADP -14.79) Apparently, this was the week that the aged RBs languishing behind exciting rookies made their comeback in fantasy drafts. Much like Stevenson, Dobbins sits outside of RB3 range in Yahoo ADP, but is legitimately competing for starter touches with a rookie addition — in this case, second-round pick, RJ Harvey. There are some notable differences here: Dobbins was not signed until after Harvey was drafted, and the Denver offense is arguably a step ahead of New England's (with a far superior offensive line). Meanwhile, even after a mostly healthy season in Los Angeles last year, Dobbins has not played 14+ games since 2020 and has never shouldered 200 carries in a season. Like Stevenson, he'll likely be relegated to RB2 in terms of volume, an RB3 or RB4 in fantasy ... unless something happens to Harvey. As such, Dobbins is arguably 2025's best example of an insurance back with some standalone value who could become a fantasy RB1 if the opportunity arose. 3. Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys, TE (ADP -15.70) Whether or not Ferguson's rise is due to my inclusion of the Dallas tight end on this year's All-Renaissance Team, I'm happy to see him climbing after months of sleeper status. Ferguson was extremely productive with Dak Prescott last season, posting elite TE1 numbers in every category except touchdowns ... where he scored zero. Now, with Prescott back and positive regression squarely on Ferguson's side, I expect him to comfortably crack TE1 range and challenge guys like Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce for the best of "The Rest" tier (i.e. the mess of solid TE1s behind Bowers, McBride and Kittle). This Cowboys offense might lead the league in passing (see below), and while Ferguson is clearly behind CeeDee Lamb in the pecking order, he could easily be the "2B" to George Pickens' "2A," and come away with triple-digit targets in 2025. 2. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, QB (ADP -17.40) Prescott has been my favorite QB target in fantasy drafts this offseason (by a lot), so seeing his ADP jump this much is both vindicating and disastrous (now I can't get him quite as freely in every single draft). Not unlike Christian McCaffrey, Prescott has been a two-faced coin in fantasy: if he's healthy, he's a guaranteed QB1 with elite upside (QB2 overall in 2019, QB3 overall in 2023). But just about every other year, he's not healthy. Still, as I've often said, I'm not "betting on injury," and Prescott might be in the best situation of his career entering 2025. With Lamb, Pickens, Ferguson (see above), no reliable running game and a suspect defense, Dallas is likely to be one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football and Prescott has always been extremely efficient. In fact, his 17-game seasonal pace over the last six years, on an average of 617 pass attempts, would be 4,724 passing yards and 34 passing touchdowns. As long as he's on the football field, Prescott is among the most productive passers in the sport. He's still priced as the QB10 — his absolute floor if healthy — and I'd be willing to take him as high as QB6. If you don't take one of the elite five this year, take Prescott in the seventh or eighth round. 1. Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins, WR (ADP -18.73) Not to toot my own horn, but Waddle is the second player from my All-Renaissance Team to make this week's top ADP risers, and his rise has been meteoric. A week ago, he was going near the back of the seventh round, well outside WR2 range. Now he's nearing the 5-6 turn and threatening to crack the top 24 at the position on Yahoo. I laid out the full case for Waddle last week, but here's the TL;DR: He's an extremely talented player who had a wildly unproductive 2024 amid a QB carousel and a dysfunctional offense, but still flashed WR2 upside when the offense was functional. He recognized his own underperformance last year and is working to correct his failures, while building extra chemistry with Tua Tagovailoa amid Tyreek Hill's intermittent camp absence (oblique). Waddle is, admittedly, a volatile pick with plenty of red(dish) flags. But the best-case scenario could have him as a legitimate fantasy WR1, and even the median case would be a return on value at his current draft price. Considering you can get Waddle as your WR3 in the sixth round, the potential rewards heavily outweigh the considerable risk. 5 Biggest ADP Fallers Honorable Mentions Outside of the expected fallers like Joe Mixon and Chris Godwin (injuries), the most notable names who didn't crack the top five this week are DK Metcalf and Garrett Wilson. While they haven't dropped a ton (roughly 1.5 spots each in Yahoo ADP), growing concerns over their quarterbacks are likely at fault for the recent slides. And I could not feel more differently about the two. Metcalf made my All-Renaissance Team, is basically guaranteed to see 140+ targets and dominate the red-zone work for Pittsburgh and may crack the top 15 in my WR rankings before the start of the season. Wilson, on the other hand, is perhaps the most overrated player of the 2025 offseason, is facing career-low volume with Justin Fields and ought to fall a couple more rounds in ADP over the coming weeks. I'd happily take Metcalf at the back of the fourth round ... over Wilson, who's still going two rounds earlier. 5. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions, WR (ADP +1.77) In last week's column, both Jared Goff and Jameson Williams made the "Top Fallers" list, and now St. Brown has joined them in the descent. That tells me one thing with confidence: The fantasy community is coming around to the painful reality of the post-Ben Johnson era in Detroit. I painted the picture in full last week, but to summarize, Goff and the Lions offense were much less effective before Johnson ascended as OC. In three years under the play-calling wiz-kid, they led the entire NFL with 59 offensive touchdowns per season. That number will likely plummet in 2025, which is particularly bad news for St. Brown, who scored six, then 10, then 12 touchdowns in each of those three seasons. The offseason hype has also frequently pointed to a breakout season from Williams, which could hurt St. Brown's typically enormous target share. Even if he still finishes as a WR1, a drop in volume and a drop in touchdowns will make it very hard for ARSB to match or surpass his WR5 ADP. In my opinion, it should continue to drop until he falls closer to the Puka Nacua-Brian Thomas Jr.-Drake London range than the Nico Collins-Malik Nabers range. 4. DJ Moore, Chicago Bears, WR (ADP +2.85) Speaking of Ben Johnson receivers ... his new WR1 has also slid a bit in ADP this week. Despite finishing as the WR16 in a terrible Chicago offense last year, Moore is now going at the very bottom of WR2 range in Yahoo ADP. The only rational explanation? Target competition. While the Bears moved on from Keenan Allen, who saw 121 targets last year, they did add Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland in the first two rounds of April's draft, and undoubtedly expect a step forward from 2024 first-rounder Rome Odunze. (Incidentally, Odunze was just outside the top-10 ADP risers this week.) After seeing 136 targets in 2023 and 140 in 2024, fears that Moore's opportunity will diminish in this crowded receiving corps are valid ... but overblown, in my opinion. Any step back in target share should be offset by the overall improvement of the offense. Remember how the Lions led the league in touchdowns under Johnson? Moore has never played in an offense anywhere close to that good — this could easily be his most efficient NFL season to date. We've even seen him score goal-line touchdowns out of the backfield in camp. I'm happily buying the dip on DJM, and you should too. 3. Breece Hall, New York Jets, RB (ADP +3.08) Hall's drop in ADP is the most easily explained in the whole column this week. Two words: Braelon Allen. The 6-foot-1, 235-pound specimen has gained a whole lot of traction in recent days as fantasy analysts contemplate a committee backfield in New York ... alongside yet-unsubstantiated rumblings of a Hall trade. And the community is pretty split on the situation. On the one hand, Hall has proven to be an elite talent — even in terrible offenses — with some of the best pass-catching upside at the entire position. On the other hand, Allen does look the part of a short-yardage and goal-line menace, and NFL teams are tilting towards committees more and more frequently these days. I, for one, am squarely in the former camp and have Hall as my RB10 overall. Allen saw fewer than 100 carries in 17 games and averaged 3.6 yards per attempt last year. Yes, he looks the part, and yes, he'll vulture a touchdown or two, but I'm convinced Hall will remain the clear lead back, close in on 300+ touches (again) and return major value in fantasy. 2. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos, QB (ADP +7.09) After a few fallers that made sense — or at least had an easily identifiable explanation — the drop for Nix is a little odd. Denver's offense is one of the more exciting of the young season, boasts an exceptional O-line and added some intriguing pass-catchers in TE Evan Engram and rookie WR Pat Bryant ... all after Nix was the QB7 as a rookie last year. Now, he's sitting behind Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy and Baker Mayfield, and could be at risk of sliding below Justin Fields at this rate. Nix spent several days training with Payton's former QB and frequent Nix comp, Drew Brees, this offseason, and seems likely to improve as an NFL quarterback in Year 2. Just about every arrow is pointing up for Nix heading into 2025 ... except his ADP. Translation: Value. I was in on Nix at cost already, and will be targeting him even more aggressively the further he falls in drafts. 1. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, QB (ADP +8.40) Still holding one spot above Nix — but experiencing this week's biggest ADP fall — is Mayfield. After a breakout 2024 campaign under OC Liam Coen, which resulted in a QB4 finish in fantasy, the expectations on Mayfield were heavily inflated heading into 2025. Now, it seems, some course correction is coming into play. Mayfield posted a 71% completion rate and a 7.2% touchdown rate last year, numbers that were wildly out of character for him and historic for any quarterback in the league's history. Even if Coen didn't depart for Duuuuval, those numbers would be bound for regression this year ... and losing the creative play-caller is very unlikely to help. While I like Mayfield as a player and even as a franchise quarterback, this slide in ADP is not (yet) enough to entice me to draft him. If he continues to fall into or below the Bo Nix-Justin Fields-Dak Prescott-Kyler Murray range, I'd give it some consideration, but for now, I'd let the course continue to correct.
Yahoo
12-08-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Biggest fantasy football ADP risers/fallers after the first week of NFL preseason
It's Week 2 of our series covering the biggest Risers and Fallers in Yahoo ADP, and we've got some big names on the move heading into mid-August and the heart of fantasy football draft season. For the full context, you can check out the first piece here. Let's get right into it! [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] 5 Biggest ADP Risers Honorable Mentions Jakobi Meyers jumped more than a round in ADP and needs to be acknowledged as a quietly underrated WR3 or better. He saw 129 targets and finished as the WR23 last year, and theoretically got a QB upgrade and little relevant competition for volume this offseason. ... While Patriots QB Drake Maye didn't do much as a passer on his single preseason drive, he did run the ball twice for 16 yards and a touchdown, an excellent reminder of the rushing upside that makes him a QB1 consideration. ... With Chris Godwin's injury-spurred fall continuing to shift the Bucs' passing-game projections, rookie Emeka Egbuka is gaining quite a bit of steam. He's extremely talented and could have a WR2 ceiling if he sees enough volume in Year 1. ... Lastly, take a long look at Tank Bigsby in the 10th round. All signs out of camp suggest he will be the primary ball-carrier for a potential breakout offense, but even after a solid climb, he's being drafted as the RB33. 5. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots, RB (ADP -14.56) Speaking of backs in line to be the primary ball-carrier in an ascending offense, even despite an explosive rookie behind him, Stevenson was one of the more surprising risers this week. While TreVeyon Henderson drew all the eyes with his 100-yard return touchdown on the opening kickoff of the preseason game against Washington, Stevenson put together seven carries for 36 yards (5.1 per carry). There's no doubt that Henderson is the more versatile and explosive player, but distracted drafters may have been ignoring Stevenson's expected workload as a result. After climbing more than a round in ADP, he's now the RB34 at the back of the single-digit rounds. I believe Henderson will see significant volume and honestly prefer him at his rising RB26 price over Stevenson at RB34 ... but we shouldn't ignore the veteran and his potential for 200+ carries and several touchdowns in the middle rounds. 4. J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers, RB (ADP -14.79) Apparently, this was the week that the aged RBs languishing behind exciting rookies made their comeback in fantasy drafts. Much like Stevenson, Dobbins sits outside of RB3 range in Yahoo ADP, but is legitimately competing for starter touches with a rookie addition — in this case, second-round pick, RJ Harvey. There are some notable differences here: Dobbins was not signed until after Harvey was drafted, and the Denver offense is arguably a step ahead of New England's (with a far superior offensive line). Meanwhile, even after a mostly healthy season in Los Angeles last year, Dobbins has not played 14+ games since 2020 and has never shouldered 200 carries in a season. Like Stevenson, he'll likely be relegated to RB2 in terms of volume, an RB3 or RB4 in fantasy ... unless something happens to Harvey. As such, Dobbins is arguably 2025's best example of an insurance back with some standalone value who could become a fantasy RB1 if the opportunity arose. 3. Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys, TE (ADP -15.70) Whether or not Ferguson's rise is due to my inclusion of the Dallas tight end on this year's All-Renaissance Team, I'm happy to see him climbing after months of sleeper status. Ferguson was extremely productive with Dak Prescott last season, posting elite TE1 numbers in every category except touchdowns ... where he scored zero. Now, with Prescott back and positive regression squarely on Ferguson's side, I expect him to comfortably crack TE1 range and challenge guys like Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce for the best of "The Rest" tier (i.e. the mess of solid TE1s behind Bowers, McBride and Kittle). This Cowboys offense might lead the league in passing (see below), and while Ferguson is clearly behind CeeDee Lamb in the pecking order, he could easily be the "2B" to George Pickens' "2A," and come away with triple-digit targets in 2025. 2. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, QB (ADP -17.40) Prescott has been my favorite QB target in fantasy drafts this offseason (by a lot), so seeing his ADP jump this much is both vindicating and disastrous (now I can't get him quite as freely in every single draft). Not unlike Christian McCaffrey, Prescott has been a two-faced coin in fantasy: if he's healthy, he's a guaranteed QB1 with elite upside (QB2 overall in 2019, QB3 overall in 2023). But just about every other year, he's not healthy. Still, as I've often said, I'm not "betting on injury," and Prescott might be in the best situation of his career entering 2025. With Lamb, Pickens, Ferguson (see above), no reliable running game and a suspect defense, Dallas is likely to be one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football and Prescott has always been extremely efficient. In fact, his 17-game seasonal pace over the last six years, on an average of 617 pass attempts, would be 4,724 passing yards and 34 passing touchdowns. As long as he's on the football field, Prescott is among the most productive passers in the sport. He's still priced as the QB10 — his absolute floor if healthy — and I'd be willing to take him as high as QB6. If you don't take one of the elite five this year, take Prescott in the seventh or eighth round. 1. Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins, WR (ADP -18.73) Not to toot my own horn, but Waddle is the second player from my All-Renaissance Team to make this week's top ADP risers, and his rise has been meteoric. A week ago, he was going near the back of the seventh round, well outside WR2 range. Now he's nearing the 5-6 turn and threatening to crack the top 24 at the position on Yahoo. I laid out the full case for Waddle last week, but here's the TL;DR: He's an extremely talented player who had a wildly unproductive 2024 amid a QB carousel and a dysfunctional offense, but still flashed WR2 upside when the offense was functional. He recognized his own underperformance last year and is working to correct his failures, while building extra chemistry with Tua Tagovailoa amid Tyreek Hill's intermittent camp absence (oblique). Waddle is, admittedly, a volatile pick with plenty of red(dish) flags. But the best-case scenario could have him as a legitimate fantasy WR1, and even the median case would be a return on value at his current draft price. Considering you can get Waddle as your WR3 in the sixth round, the potential rewards heavily outweigh the considerable risk. 5 Biggest ADP Fallers Honorable Mentions Outside of the expected fallers like Joe Mixon and Chris Godwin (injuries), the most notable names who didn't crack the top five this week are DK Metcalf and Garrett Wilson. While they haven't dropped a ton (roughly 1.5 spots each in Yahoo ADP), growing concerns over their quarterbacks are likely at fault for the recent slides. And I could not feel more differently about the two. Metcalf made my All-Renaissance Team, is basically guaranteed to see 140+ targets and dominate the red-zone work for Pittsburgh and may crack the top 15 in my WR rankings before the start of the season. Wilson, on the other hand, is perhaps the most overrated player of the 2025 offseason, is facing career-low volume with Justin Fields and ought to fall a couple more rounds in ADP over the coming weeks. I'd happily take Metcalf at the back of the fourth round ... over Wilson, who's still going two rounds earlier. 5. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions, WR (ADP +1.77) In last week's column, both Jared Goff and Jameson Williams made the "Top Fallers" list, and now St. Brown has joined them in the descent. That tells me one thing with confidence: The fantasy community is coming around to the painful reality of the post-Ben Johnson era in Detroit. I painted the picture in full last week, but to summarize, Goff and the Lions offense were much less effective before Johnson ascended as OC. In three years under the play-calling wiz-kid, they led the entire NFL with 59 offensive touchdowns per season. That number will likely plummet in 2025, which is particularly bad news for St. Brown, who scored six, then 10, then 12 touchdowns in each of those three seasons. The offseason hype has also frequently pointed to a breakout season from Williams, which could hurt St. Brown's typically enormous target share. Even if he still finishes as a WR1, a drop in volume and a drop in touchdowns will make it very hard for ARSB to match or surpass his WR5 ADP. In my opinion, it should continue to drop until he falls closer to the Puka Nacua-Brian Thomas Jr.-Drake London range than the Nico Collins-Malik Nabers range. 4. DJ Moore, Chicago Bears, WR (ADP +2.85) Speaking of Ben Johnson receivers ... his new WR1 has also slid a bit in ADP this week. Despite finishing as the WR16 in a terrible Chicago offense last year, Moore is now going at the very bottom of WR2 range in Yahoo ADP. The only rational explanation? Target competition. While the Bears moved on from Keenan Allen, who saw 121 targets last year, they did add Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland in the first two rounds of April's draft, and undoubtedly expect a step forward from 2024 first-rounder Rome Odunze. (Incidentally, Odunze was just outside the top-10 ADP risers this week.) After seeing 136 targets in 2023 and 140 in 2024, fears that Moore's opportunity will diminish in this crowded receiving corps are valid ... but overblown, in my opinion. Any step back in target share should be offset by the overall improvement of the offense. Remember how the Lions led the league in touchdowns under Johnson? Moore has never played in an offense anywhere close to that good — this could easily be his most efficient NFL season to date. We've even seen him score goal-line touchdowns out of the backfield in camp. I'm happily buying the dip on DJM, and you should too. 3. Breece Hall, New York Jets, RB (ADP +3.08) Hall's drop in ADP is the most easily explained in the whole column this week. Two words: Braelon Allen. The 6-foot-1, 235-pound specimen has gained a whole lot of traction in recent days as fantasy analysts contemplate a committee backfield in New York ... alongside yet-unsubstantiated rumblings of a Hall trade. And the community is pretty split on the situation. On the one hand, Hall has proven to be an elite talent — even in terrible offenses — with some of the best pass-catching upside at the entire position. On the other hand, Allen does look the part of a short-yardage and goal-line menace, and NFL teams are tilting towards committees more and more frequently these days. I, for one, am squarely in the former camp and have Hall as my RB10 overall. Allen saw fewer than 100 carries in 17 games and averaged 3.6 yards per attempt last year. Yes, he looks the part, and yes, he'll vulture a touchdown or two, but I'm convinced Hall will remain the clear lead back, close in on 300+ touches (again) and return major value in fantasy. 2. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos, QB (ADP +7.09) After a few fallers that made sense — or at least had an easily identifiable explanation — the drop for Nix is a little odd. Denver's offense is one of the more exciting of the young season, boasts an exceptional O-line and added some intriguing pass-catchers in TE Evan Engram and rookie WR Pat Bryant ... all after Nix was the QB7 as a rookie last year. Now, he's sitting behind Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy and Baker Mayfield, and could be at risk of sliding below Justin Fields at this rate. Nix spent several days training with Payton's former QB and frequent Nix comp, Drew Brees, this offseason, and seems likely to improve as an NFL quarterback in Year 2. Just about every arrow is pointing up for Nix heading into 2025 ... except his ADP. Translation: Value. I was in on Nix at cost already, and will be targeting him even more aggressively the further he falls in drafts. 1. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, QB (ADP +8.40) Still holding one spot above Nix — but experiencing this week's biggest ADP fall — is Mayfield. After a breakout 2024 campaign under OC Liam Coen, which resulted in a QB4 finish in fantasy, the expectations on Mayfield were heavily inflated heading into 2025. Now, it seems, some course correction is coming into play. Mayfield posted a 71% completion rate and a 7.2% touchdown rate last year, numbers that were wildly out of character for him and historic for any quarterback in the league's history. Even if Coen didn't depart for Duuuuval, those numbers would be bound for regression this year ... and losing the creative play-caller is very unlikely to help. While I like Mayfield as a player and even as a franchise quarterback, this slide in ADP is not (yet) enough to entice me to draft him. If he continues to fall into or below the Bo Nix-Justin Fields-Dak Prescott-Kyler Murray range, I'd give it some consideration, but for now, I'd let the course continue to correct.
NBC Sports
11-08-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
Jakobi Meyers fantasy football preview 2025: Stats, season outlook, predictions
Rotoworld Staff, Jakobi Meyers 2025 Fantasy Preview 2024: Meyers in 2024 was quietly 12th in wideout receptions and 17th in receiving yards while catching passes from two of the least accurate quarterbacks in the game. Targeted on a decent 23 percent of his pass routes, Meyers was a solid No. 2 option behind Brock Bowers. His 2024 yards per route was above his career mark, quite the feat considering his QBs. What's changed: Pete Carroll was hired as the Raiders head coach and Chip Kelly as the team's offensive coordinator. The team acquired QB Geno Smith from the Seahawks and drafted WR Jack Bech and WR Dont'e Thornton. Outlook: Meyers could be among the sneakiest fantasy values on the draft board this summer with a massive upgrade at quarterback and an offensive coordinator who has proven adept at getting the most from his skill position players. Meyers will be Vegas' clear No. 1 receiver catching passes from one of the league's most accurate passers. His target numbers could be surprising even if the Raiders are a run-first team. Opposing defenses focusing their attention on Bowers should help Meyers in 2025. He's a good target for drafters who don't take wideouts in the first few rounds. Get personalized fantasy football insights based on your league settings with FantasyLife+. Your league is unique, your advice should be too. Head to and use code ROTO20 for 20% off. **Projections from Spotlight Sports Group Go to: All players | QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs
USA Today
30-07-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Raiders rookie WR Dont'e Thornton knows he must improve as a route runner
The Las Vegas Raiders entered training camp searching for playmakers at wide receiver. Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker are the two veterans in the room. New general manager John Spytek selected multiple wide receivers during the 2025 NFL draft, landing Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton. Thornton is especially intriguing. The former Tennessee Volunteers standout is an athletic specimen who's still developing the technical aspects of playing the position. The 6-foot-5, 205 pound Thornton ran a blazing-fast 4.30 at the NFL combine. Despite having that size and athleticism, he only produced 661 receiving yards last season. The biggest knock analysts had on Thornton throughout the pre-draft process was his raw route-running ability. He averaged an explosive, FBS-leading 25.4 yards per catch last campaign, but ran a limited route tree, lowering his ceiling. Thornton is aware he must improve as a route runner. "The biggest knock on me was I wasn't a true route runner," Thornton said after a recent practice. "It's more motivation to get even better." New Raiders starting quarterback Geno Smith is a gunslinger. Under Raiders head coach Pete Carroll in Seattle, he loved targeting big-bodied receivers like DK Metcalf down the field. Tucker, Meyers, or Bech can't provide that explosive ability in the way Thornton can if he reaches his performance ceiling. Thornton is taking the correct approach at training camp to develop into a useful target for Smith this season.
