Biggest fantasy football ADP risers/fallers after the first week of NFL preseason
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5 Biggest ADP Risers
Honorable Mentions
Jakobi Meyers jumped more than a round in ADP and needs to be acknowledged as a quietly underrated WR3 or better. He saw 129 targets and finished as the WR23 last year, and theoretically got a QB upgrade and little relevant competition for volume this offseason. ... While Patriots QB Drake Maye didn't do much as a passer on his single preseason drive, he did run the ball twice for 16 yards and a touchdown, an excellent reminder of the rushing upside that makes him a QB1 consideration. ... With Chris Godwin's injury-spurred fall continuing to shift the Bucs' passing-game projections, rookie Emeka Egbuka is gaining quite a bit of steam. He's extremely talented and could have a WR2 ceiling if he sees enough volume in Year 1. ... Lastly, take a long look at Tank Bigsby in the 10th round. All signs out of camp suggest he will be the primary ball-carrier for a potential breakout offense, but even after a solid climb, he's being drafted as the RB33.
5. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots, RB (ADP -14.56)
Speaking of backs in line to be the primary ball-carrier in an ascending offense, even despite an explosive rookie behind him, Stevenson was one of the more surprising risers this week. While TreVeyon Henderson drew all the eyes with his 100-yard return touchdown on the opening kickoff of the preseason game against Washington, Stevenson put together seven carries for 36 yards (5.1 per carry).
There's no doubt that Henderson is the more versatile and explosive player, but distracted drafters may have been ignoring Stevenson's expected workload as a result. After climbing more than a round in ADP, he's now the RB34 at the back of the single-digit rounds. I believe Henderson will see significant volume and honestly prefer him at his rising RB26 price over Stevenson at RB34 ... but we shouldn't ignore the veteran and his potential for 200+ carries and several touchdowns in the middle rounds.
4. J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers, RB (ADP -14.79)
Apparently, this was the week that the aged RBs languishing behind exciting rookies made their comeback in fantasy drafts. Much like Stevenson, Dobbins sits outside of RB3 range in Yahoo ADP, but is legitimately competing for starter touches with a rookie addition — in this case, second-round pick, RJ Harvey. There are some notable differences here: Dobbins was not signed until after Harvey was drafted, and the Denver offense is arguably a step ahead of New England's (with a far superior offensive line). Meanwhile, even after a mostly healthy season in Los Angeles last year, Dobbins has not played 14+ games since 2020 and has never shouldered 200 carries in a season. Like Stevenson, he'll likely be relegated to RB2 in terms of volume, an RB3 or RB4 in fantasy ... unless something happens to Harvey. As such, Dobbins is arguably 2025's best example of an insurance back with some standalone value who could become a fantasy RB1 if the opportunity arose.
3. Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys, TE (ADP -15.70)
Whether or not Ferguson's rise is due to my inclusion of the Dallas tight end on this year's All-Renaissance Team, I'm happy to see him climbing after months of sleeper status. Ferguson was extremely productive with Dak Prescott last season, posting elite TE1 numbers in every category except touchdowns ... where he scored zero.
Now, with Prescott back and positive regression squarely on Ferguson's side, I expect him to comfortably crack TE1 range and challenge guys like Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce for the best of "The Rest" tier (i.e. the mess of solid TE1s behind Bowers, McBride and Kittle). This Cowboys offense might lead the league in passing (see below), and while Ferguson is clearly behind CeeDee Lamb in the pecking order, he could easily be the "2B" to George Pickens' "2A," and come away with triple-digit targets in 2025.
2. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, QB (ADP -17.40)
Prescott has been my favorite QB target in fantasy drafts this offseason (by a lot), so seeing his ADP jump this much is both vindicating and disastrous (now I can't get him quite as freely in every single draft). Not unlike Christian McCaffrey, Prescott has been a two-faced coin in fantasy: if he's healthy, he's a guaranteed QB1 with elite upside (QB2 overall in 2019, QB3 overall in 2023). But just about every other year, he's not healthy. Still, as I've often said, I'm not "betting on injury," and Prescott might be in the best situation of his career entering 2025.
With Lamb, Pickens, Ferguson (see above), no reliable running game and a suspect defense, Dallas is likely to be one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football and Prescott has always been extremely efficient. In fact, his 17-game seasonal pace over the last six years, on an average of 617 pass attempts, would be 4,724 passing yards and 34 passing touchdowns. As long as he's on the football field, Prescott is among the most productive passers in the sport. He's still priced as the QB10 — his absolute floor if healthy — and I'd be willing to take him as high as QB6. If you don't take one of the elite five this year, take Prescott in the seventh or eighth round.
1. Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins, WR (ADP -18.73)
Not to toot my own horn, but Waddle is the second player from my All-Renaissance Team to make this week's top ADP risers, and his rise has been meteoric. A week ago, he was going near the back of the seventh round, well outside WR2 range. Now he's nearing the 5-6 turn and threatening to crack the top 24 at the position on Yahoo. I laid out the full case for Waddle last week, but here's the TL;DR: He's an extremely talented player who had a wildly unproductive 2024 amid a QB carousel and a dysfunctional offense, but still flashed WR2 upside when the offense was functional.
He recognized his own underperformance last year and is working to correct his failures, while building extra chemistry with Tua Tagovailoa amid Tyreek Hill's intermittent camp absence (oblique). Waddle is, admittedly, a volatile pick with plenty of red(dish) flags. But the best-case scenario could have him as a legitimate fantasy WR1, and even the median case would be a return on value at his current draft price. Considering you can get Waddle as your WR3 in the sixth round, the potential rewards heavily outweigh the considerable risk.
5 Biggest ADP Fallers
Honorable Mentions
Outside of the expected fallers like Joe Mixon and Chris Godwin (injuries), the most notable names who didn't crack the top five this week are DK Metcalf and Garrett Wilson. While they haven't dropped a ton (roughly 1.5 spots each in Yahoo ADP), growing concerns over their quarterbacks are likely at fault for the recent slides. And I could not feel more differently about the two. Metcalf made my All-Renaissance Team, is basically guaranteed to see 140+ targets and dominate the red-zone work for Pittsburgh and may crack the top 15 in my WR rankings before the start of the season.
Wilson, on the other hand, is perhaps the most overrated player of the 2025 offseason, is facing career-low volume with Justin Fields and ought to fall a couple more rounds in ADP over the coming weeks. I'd happily take Metcalf at the back of the fourth round ... over Wilson, who's still going two rounds earlier.
5. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions, WR (ADP +1.77)
In last week's column, both Jared Goff and Jameson Williams made the "Top Fallers" list, and now St. Brown has joined them in the descent. That tells me one thing with confidence: The fantasy community is coming around to the painful reality of the post-Ben Johnson era in Detroit. I painted the picture in full last week, but to summarize, Goff and the Lions offense were much less effective before Johnson ascended as OC. In three years under the play-calling wiz-kid, they led the entire NFL with 59 offensive touchdowns per season. That number will likely plummet in 2025, which is particularly bad news for St. Brown, who scored six, then 10, then 12 touchdowns in each of those three seasons.
The offseason hype has also frequently pointed to a breakout season from Williams, which could hurt St. Brown's typically enormous target share. Even if he still finishes as a WR1, a drop in volume and a drop in touchdowns will make it very hard for ARSB to match or surpass his WR5 ADP. In my opinion, it should continue to drop until he falls closer to the Puka Nacua-Brian Thomas Jr.-Drake London range than the Nico Collins-Malik Nabers range.
4. DJ Moore, Chicago Bears, WR (ADP +2.85)
Speaking of Ben Johnson receivers ... his new WR1 has also slid a bit in ADP this week. Despite finishing as the WR16 in a terrible Chicago offense last year, Moore is now going at the very bottom of WR2 range in Yahoo ADP. The only rational explanation? Target competition. While the Bears moved on from Keenan Allen, who saw 121 targets last year, they did add Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland in the first two rounds of April's draft, and undoubtedly expect a step forward from 2024 first-rounder Rome Odunze. (Incidentally, Odunze was just outside the top-10 ADP risers this week.)
After seeing 136 targets in 2023 and 140 in 2024, fears that Moore's opportunity will diminish in this crowded receiving corps are valid ... but overblown, in my opinion. Any step back in target share should be offset by the overall improvement of the offense. Remember how the Lions led the league in touchdowns under Johnson? Moore has never played in an offense anywhere close to that good — this could easily be his most efficient NFL season to date. We've even seen him score goal-line touchdowns out of the backfield in camp. I'm happily buying the dip on DJM, and you should too.
3. Breece Hall, New York Jets, RB (ADP +3.08)
Hall's drop in ADP is the most easily explained in the whole column this week. Two words: Braelon Allen. The 6-foot-1, 235-pound specimen has gained a whole lot of traction in recent days as fantasy analysts contemplate a committee backfield in New York ... alongside yet-unsubstantiated rumblings of a Hall trade. And the community is pretty split on the situation. On the one hand, Hall has proven to be an elite talent — even in terrible offenses — with some of the best pass-catching upside at the entire position. On the other hand, Allen does look the part of a short-yardage and goal-line menace, and NFL teams are tilting towards committees more and more frequently these days. I, for one, am squarely in the former camp and have Hall as my RB10 overall. Allen saw fewer than 100 carries in 17 games and averaged 3.6 yards per attempt last year. Yes, he looks the part, and yes, he'll vulture a touchdown or two, but I'm convinced Hall will remain the clear lead back, close in on 300+ touches (again) and return major value in fantasy.
2. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos, QB (ADP +7.09)
After a few fallers that made sense — or at least had an easily identifiable explanation — the drop for Nix is a little odd. Denver's offense is one of the more exciting of the young season, boasts an exceptional O-line and added some intriguing pass-catchers in TE Evan Engram and rookie WR Pat Bryant ... all after Nix was the QB7 as a rookie last year. Now, he's sitting behind Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy and Baker Mayfield, and could be at risk of sliding below Justin Fields at this rate.
Nix spent several days training with Payton's former QB and frequent Nix comp, Drew Brees, this offseason, and seems likely to improve as an NFL quarterback in Year 2. Just about every arrow is pointing up for Nix heading into 2025 ... except his ADP. Translation: Value.
I was in on Nix at cost already, and will be targeting him even more aggressively the further he falls in drafts.
1. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, QB (ADP +8.40)
Still holding one spot above Nix — but experiencing this week's biggest ADP fall — is Mayfield. After a breakout 2024 campaign under OC Liam Coen, which resulted in a QB4 finish in fantasy, the expectations on Mayfield were heavily inflated heading into 2025. Now, it seems, some course correction is coming into play. Mayfield posted a 71% completion rate and a 7.2% touchdown rate last year, numbers that were wildly out of character for him and historic for any quarterback in the league's history. Even if Coen didn't depart for Duuuuval, those numbers would be bound for regression this year ... and losing the creative play-caller is very unlikely to help.
While I like Mayfield as a player and even as a franchise quarterback, this slide in ADP is not (yet) enough to entice me to draft him. If he continues to fall into or below the Bo Nix-Justin Fields-Dak Prescott-Kyler Murray range, I'd give it some consideration, but for now, I'd let the course continue to correct.
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