4 days ago
Bosnia-Herzegovina reforms a strategic necessity
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Agreement, a landmark accord that ended the Bosnian War of 1992-1995 and brought a fragile peace to Bosnia-Herzegovina. On this significant occasion, I had the privilege of hosting a panel of experts in Dayton, Ohio — where the agreement was originally signed — that was titled 'Next Steps After Dayton? Getting to Constitutional Reform in BiH,' referring to Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The panel, convened by the New Lines Institute, featured distinguished voices including former US Ambassador to Bosnia Michael Murphy; Ensar Eminovic, minister counselor at the Bosnia-Herzegovina Embassy in Washington; Dr. Miomir Zuzul, senior international policy adviser at Arnold & Porter; and Dr. Jasmin Mujanovic, author of the institute's recent report, 'Dayton Plus: A Policymaker's Guide to Constitutional Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina.' Together, we reflected on Dayton's legacy and the urgent need for reform to secure the country's future.
The Dayton Agreement was a monumental achievement, halting a devastating conflict that claimed countless lives and displaced millions. It established a complex constitutional framework under Annex IV, dividing Bosnia-Herzegovina into two entities — the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska — alongside the self-governing Brcko District. However, while Dayton brought peace, it also entrenched a governance structure that has proven to be a barrier to progress. The agreement's rigid ethnic power-sharing mechanisms, designed to balance the interests of Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, have fostered dysfunction, discrimination and stagnation.
Today, Bosnia-Herzegovina's constitutional regime is a labyrinth of inefficiency. The tripartite presidency, entity vetoes and sectarian electoral rules exclude approximately 400,000 citizens — particularly those identifying as 'Others' (e.g., Jews, Roma or those who reject ethnic labels) — from meaningful political participation. The European Court of Human Rights has repeatedly struck down provisions of the constitution as discriminatory, a legal obligation the country is bound to address under its own laws, but progress remains stalled. This de facto constitutional crisis undermines Bosnia-Herzegovina's aspirations for EU and NATO membership, a goal that requires rational governance and accountability — outcomes the current system cannot deliver.
The demographic reality in Bosnia-Herzegovina underscores the urgent need for reform. Since the 2013 census, which recorded a population of 3.5 million, estimates suggest that number has plummeted to under 2 million due to mass emigration, particularly among the youth. In Republika Srpska, claims of a 1.4 million population may mask a reality closer to 800,000. This exodus reflects a lack of hope in a system that denies citizens a stake in their future, perpetuating corruption and ethnic division over shared prosperity.
Mujanovic outlined a clear case for reform. The current constitution promotes irrational governance, incentivizes sectarian maximalism and allows neighboring states to meddle in Bosnia-Herzegovina's affairs, heightening the risk of renewed conflict. Conversely, constitutional reform could foster accountable governance, ensure equal rights for all citizens and pave a credible path for Euro-Atlantic integration by 2040. The benefits are clear: a shift from zero-sum politics to a system that values individual rights over collective ethnic identities, reduces foreign interference and empowers Bosnia-Herzegovina to stand as a sovereign, democratic state.
While the Dayton Agreement brought peace, it also entrenched a governance structure that has proven to be a barrier to progress
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
However, the path to reform is fraught with challenges. Political elites, entrenched in the status quo, resist change, fearing a loss of power. The Office of the High Representative, with its expansive Bonn Powers, has intervened in the past — most notably during the 2022 Bosnia-Herzegovina election — but such external impositions are not sustainable. True reform must come from within, supported by international partners like the US and the EU, which have historically expected irrational systems to yield rational outcomes. This flawed premise has led to repeated policy failures in Bosnia-Herzegovina, as our report notes, unless accompanied by sustained international pressure.
'Dayton Plus' proposes a model for limited constitutional reform that balances pragmatism with ambition. It suggests a single, non-ethnically designated president with ceremonial powers, elected through a two-round system to encourage moderate outcomes. Executive authority would shift to the Council of Ministers, with a redefined entity veto mechanism to prevent abuse.
Unicameral legislatures at all levels, caucus-based vital national interest protections and electoral reforms like ranked-choice voting aim to dismantle the winner-takes-all mentality. These changes would not overhaul Bosnia-Herzegovina's structure entirely but would normalize constitutional reform as a routine democratic process, building momentum for future progress.
Today, that reform is not just necessary — it is achievable. The original Dayton Agreement proved that, with political will, even the most intractable conflicts can be resolved. Today, the task of amending Bosnia-Herzegovina's constitution in line with European Court of Human Rights rulings is far less daunting than ending a war in 1995. What is needed now is the same determination, coupled with imagination, to chart a new course for Bosnia-Herzegovina.
As we look to the future, the Euro-Atlantic community must recommit to Bosnia-Herzegovina's stability. The Western Balkans remains a geopolitical flashpoint, with Russia and China exploiting governance weaknesses to sow discord. Constitutional reform in Bosnia-Herzegovina is not just a domestic imperative but a strategic necessity for regional security. By supporting it in this endeavor, the US and the EU can help complete the vision of a Europe whole and free — a vision Dayton began but cannot fulfill without change.
The 30th anniversary of Dayton is a moment to celebrate peace, but also to act. Bosnia-Herzegovina's citizens deserve a system that reflects their shared hopes, not their divided past. Let us work together to make that vision a reality.
*Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim
