a day ago
Hasta La Vista, Long-Lived Certs: Why 2029 Is The Year Everything Changes
Jason Sabin, CTO of DigiCert Inc. Passionate about digital trust, including digital certificate management for web, device & user identity.
With quantum computing breakthroughs from Microsoft, Amazon and Google over the past six months, it's starting to feel like 2029 is shaping up to be a real turning point. And no, not just because it's the year the Terminator came back to hunt down Sarah Connor.
In the world of digital trust, 2029 has its own kind of Judgment Day.
It's the year Gartner says organizations need to be quantum-ready. And as of April 14, 2025, it's also the year the industry is expected to shift to 47-day certificate lifespans, replacing the already-short 398-day standard. And it's the year organizations that haven't embraced crypto-agility may find themselves scrambling to catch up.
This isn't science fiction—it's the very real future of cybersecurity. And the clock is ticking.
The Quantum Arms Race Is Real
Recent advances in error correction, qubit stability and hybrid quantum models have put us on an accelerated path toward a cryptographically relevant quantum computer—one that could break widely used encryption like RSA and ECC. When that day arrives, the consequences won't be limited to headlines. It will affect everything: secure internet sessions, financial transactions, software updates and more.
And while that quantum day hasn't yet arrived, attackers aren't waiting. 'Harvest now, decrypt later' tactics are already in play. Sensitive data is being intercepted today, with the intent to break it once quantum capabilities catch up. For governments, enterprises and anyone dealing in IP or personal data, this is a now problem—not a later one.
The Good Guys Have a Plan: PQC + Automation
Enter post-quantum cryptography (PQC)—a new generation of encryption designed to withstand quantum threats. We are actively working with NIST, IETF and industry partners to bring quantum-safe and hybrid certificate solutions into the mainstream. NIST's selection of its first four PQC algorithms in 2024 was a major milestone, but transitioning global systems will take time.
And here's where it gets interesting: The same tools and strategies organizations need to become quantum-ready are the same ones they'll need to survive the move to 47-day certificates.
Let that sink in.
By modernizing your public key infrastructure (PKI), automating certificate lifecycle management and preparing for crypto-agility today, you're essentially killing two security birds with one stone:
• You're ready for quantum threats
• You're ready for short-lived certificate enforcement
Why 2029 Really Matters
NIST recommends public-sector organizations be fully transitioned to quantum-safe crypto between 2030 and 2035. Gartner, however, has drawn a sharper line for enterprises: be quantum-ready by 2029. That same year, browser vendors are expected to enforce 47-day certificate validity, requiring automated, scalable certificate management to keep up.
These timelines aren't random—they're the reality check for organizations still relying on manual certificate (cert) renewals or legacy encryption protocols. The digital trust infrastructure we rely on today won't stand up to what's coming.
What To Do Now?
Organizations that wait will be forced into reactive mode—facing operational risk, regulatory penalties and potential breaches. Those who act now can make a smooth, strategic transition. That includes:
• Taking inventory of current cryptographic assets/cryptographic bill of materials (CBOM).
• Implementing certificate automation across environments to support crypto-agility.
• Preparing internal policies and compliance plans for short-lived certificates.
Over the past couple of years, a number of enterprises have mapped out their PQC roadmap and implemented the tools to thrive in a post-quantum, automation-first future. The move to PQC isn't just a swap of algorithms—it's a fundamental shift in how organizations manage trust.
So whether you're facing quantum threats or chasing short-lived cert cycles, 2029 is your deadline. And as any sci-fi fan will tell you: The future isn't set—but it is coming.
Will you be ready?
Forbes Technology Council is an invitation-only community for world-class CIOs, CTOs and technology executives. Do I qualify?
