Latest news with #JayPelosky
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Deflation in China is the 'single biggest' macro market factor
TPW Advisory founder Jay Pelosky joins Market Catalysts with Julie Hyman to discuss trade with China, how "the markets have spoken," and why he's long on Chinese equities. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts. I want to turn this last one to you as you talk about wanting to be elsewhere in the world, places like Europe, um, and in emerging markets. What about the tariff effect on those places, right? I mean, yes, I know that they are passing on some of the costs to their customers, but not all, in not all cases. So do you expect some negative effects on the countries that are being tariffed, and how does that affect your investment thesis? Sure. No, it's a good question, Julie. And I think the markets have already spoken, right? Going back to what we just talked about, US has been underperforming. Market is already telling us that the bulk of the tariff impact, which will be negative, tariffs are a tax, right? There's a reason the world spent 50 odd years trying to reduce tariffs and boost global trade. Tariffs are a tax. Taxes are not great on economic growth, and therefore, the market has spoken both in terms of, uh, the stock market, US underperforming, the currency market, dollar weak, the bond market, US rates high, rest of the world cutting rates. The market has spoken already. Tariffs are a bigger impediment to the US than to the rest of the world. And the real fear that we have at TPW advisory is that the US economy will continue to slow, and the market is expecting rate cuts, as you touched on at the open, but the Fed is going to have problems providing those rate cuts because inflation is well above target. Core PCE came in last week 2.8%. Fed target 2%. So the Fed may not be ready or able to cut as much as the market would like them to. So when we look at the rest of the world, right? Three things quickly on Europe, record low unemployment, uh, ECB rate cuts over the last year yet to be felt in terms of beneficial impact, and massive fiscal stimulus coming out of the core economy in Germany. All three are suggesting that growth will be better in Europe in 2026 and 2027 than it is today. Same in China. We wrote our piece, Friday musings, rates rise in the East. The single biggest, most important macro factor that we're focused on is whether or not China can beat deflation. If China beats deflation, that means better growth in China, less risk of China exporting deflation to the rest of the world, higher corporate earnings in China, higher stock prices, higher multiples, and most likely a stronger currency. And so those are the, that's what we're really focused on. Can China defeat deflation? We think it will, and that's why we're long Chinese equities. Related Videos It's 'entirely possible' bitcoin could fall below $100K by 2026 Indian ETFs fall on Trump's India tariff hike: A closer look Why the alternatives market is growing so rapidly Trump's Fed gov. will be 'trial balloon' for Fed chair in 2026 Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Axios
30-06-2025
- Business
- Axios
Trump trade whiplash sends investors abroad
While bulls are cheering the stock market record, it's flimsy compared with gains in the rest of the world. Why it matters: President Trump's flip-flop on trade with Canada last Friday is the type of policy volatility foundational to the Sell America trade, which is still driving gains in markets outside of the U.S Strategists see more room to run in the shift to international stocks. By the numbers: Take a look at the performance of some foreign indices year to date. The German DAX is up 20%. The Chinese Hang Seng Index is up 24%. Even Canadian stocks are mildly outpacing U.S. gains, up nearly 7% this year compared to the 5% gain in the S&P 500. What they're saying: A rotation out of the U.S. into the rest of the world, particularly to Europe and individual countries offering stimulative economic policies, is the consensus for the second half of this year. "The U.S. itself no longer the safe haven that it was in the past 20 years," says Jay Pelosky of TPW Advisors. It's not just that the U.S. is fading. The "aggressive fiscal stimulus" adopted by the rest of the world is set to drive further earnings growth elsewhere, he says. Yes, but: Thanks to big tech, most banks have maintained an overweight rating on both U.S. and European stocks through year end. About half of the gains in the S&P are driven by large-cap tech names. You don't have to believe in the entire U.S. to own the S&P. You may just have to believe in the tech trade. That trade is expected to be buoyed by continued earnings growth, cushioned by declines in the U.S. dollar.
Axios
26-06-2025
- Business
- Axios
Wall Street bulls up for the second half of 2025
From JPMorgan to HSBC, big banks are rushing to strike a more optimistic tone in their midyear outlooks, with the stock market more than recovered from its April lows. Why it matters: Strategists are looking past the geopolitical risks and focusing on what really drives stocks: earnings growth. That view is largely expected to continue this year despite tariff-driven uncertainty. By the numbers: Of a sampling of 14 firms offering price targets on the S&P 500, only five forecast a year-end level below 6,000. Based on current levels, that means most strategists see stocks rising for the rest of 2025. What they're saying: The latest moves in the S&P 500, and tech stocks in particular, are a signal that "everything that happened as a result of tariffs and Liberation Day has kind of been brushed to the side," according to Jay Woods, chief global strategist with Freedom Capital Markets. Zoom in: Three big themes are driving the bulls. Belief in solid earnings growth, which Morgan Stanley expects to remain in the high single digits, and which Bank of America views as driven by consumer resilience. Conviction in the artificial intelligence trade, validated this week by Nvidia closing at a new record yesterday. For better or worse, the "TACO" trade remains, and market participants are largely convinced that tariff deals are coming. Yes, but: Three big risks remain for investors. Market breadth is still an issue, JPMorgan expects narrow leadership that mirrors the big tech rallies of 2023 and 2024. Can rising tech stocks lift all market boats forever? The U.S. dollar is down nearly 10% so far this year, a potential signal that global investors are pulling back from American assets. The 90-day tariff pause deadline is just two weeks away, and there are hardly any deals. What we're watching: Not all investors are ready to move past the tariff-driven uncertainty in the economy. Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory, is overweight non-U.S. equities and sees more upside in regions expecting stimulus-driven growth like Europe.
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
TPW's Pelosky Warns of Capital Repatriation Out of US
"We are early in a secular change of leadership away from US equities," TPW Investment Management CIO Jay Pelosky says on "Bloomberg The Close." Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
09-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
TPW's Pelosky Warns of Capital Repatriation Out of US
"We are early in a secular change of leadership away from US equities," TPW Investment Management CIO Jay Pelosky says on "Bloomberg The Close." (Source: Bloomberg)
