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Miami Herald
08-05-2025
- Sport
- Miami Herald
Looking for a Kentucky Derby long shot? Here are your best bets to win big money
Journalism will be tough to beat. Sandman has legitimate star power. Sovereignty could very well be wearing the roses by the end of the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday night. But recent history indicates a major long shot might be the horse getting all of the attention after the 151st edition of the race is run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, and — even if one of those aforementioned favorites does cross the finish line first — there's likely plenty of money to be made elsewhere. To win big without betting big on Derby Day, you'll need to either hit on one of those overlooked contenders that finds his way into first — like Mystik Dan did last year at 18-1 odds — or pick out the right combination of horses that finish in the money. With such a large field size Saturday, there's plenty of betting money to be spread around, and that means there will be plenty to win if you get your handicapping right. As you finalize your picks for the big race, here are a few long-shot bets to consider. Picking a long shot to win Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is the deserving favorite Saturday, but the favorite hasn't won the Kentucky Derby since eventual Triple Crown winner Justify did it seven years ago. Mystik Dan was 18-1 last year. Mage was 15-1 the year before that. Other recent winners include Rich Strike at 81-1 odds three years ago and Country House at 65-1 in 2019. Point being, a major upset hasn't been the most unexpected result in recent years. Who's most likely to do it in this field? Be sure to keep an eye on the Kentucky Derby live odds leading up to post time Saturday, but — as of noon Friday — there were a few intriguing win options at 15-1 or longer. Going by that '15-1 or longer' standard of a long shot, Final Gambit is one to consider. The gray colt was actually 30-1 on the morning line but was bet down to 15-1 by Friday afternoon. His color, popular for casual bettors, surely had something to do with that, but there's some real talent here, too. Final Gambit turned in a career performance in winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park for star trainer Brad Cox last time out, going from last in the 12-horse field in the final turn to a clear winner at the finish line. He earned only a 90 Beyer Speed Figure for that run — not terrific, by the standards of the Derby field — but there's some intrigue here. He's run his last three races on the synthetic surface at Turfway and his only start before that came over the Churchill Downs turf course. So, he's never run on dirt. That's not a disqualifier. Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby at 21-1 odds in his first start on dirt in 2011, and long-shot Rich Strike also raced three times on the synthetic surface at Turfway leading up to his Derby upset three years ago. While the early betting has taken some value away from Final Gambit, he's still worth consideration as a win bet. That move in the Jeff Ruby Steaks was fantastic, and if he can replicate it Saturday — running into what should be a hot pace that sets up well for closers — he could be there in the end, especially if he can handle the dirt kickback he'll be seeing for the first time in his young career. While he's not my favorite contender in the field, Blue Grass Stakes winner Burnham Square is another talented closer with intriguing odds. Though 12-1 on the morning line, he was sitting at 16-1 on Friday afternoon despite Rodriguez and Grande being scratched. That's somewhat of a surprise for a horse that has been training arguably as well as anyone over the Louisville dirt and has local favorite Brian Hernandez Jr. — last year's Derby winner and one of Churchill's all-time leading jockeys — aboard Saturday. And be sure to keep an eye on Baeza as those live odds are updated Saturday. The Santa Anita Derby runner-up drew into the race Thursday with the scratch of Rodriguez and — though lightly raced — he has the look of a potential Kentucky Derby winner. Around the time Baeza got into the field, his odds were hovering around the 50-1 range, but that's because it was unclear if he'd even be eligible for the race. Those odds have shortened quickly since his inclusion and had dropped into the 20-1 range by Friday afternoon. Expect Baeza's odds to keep getting shorter, but if they level out somewhere around his 12-1 number on the morning line, he'll be a great value as a win bet. And speaking of great value, Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty was sitting at 9-1 in the live odds Friday afternoon. That's an incredibly enticing number, even if it doesn't fit our definition of a Derby 'long shot.' Betting tips for Derby trifecta Even if Journalism — or one of the other favorites — wins the Kentucky Derby, the exotic payoffs could still be lucrative. (And if a relative long shot comes in first, those winnings will be huge.) Some recent examples: ▪ When Authentic won the 2020 Derby at 8-1 odds, with 3-5 favorite Tiz the Law coming in second, a $1 trifecta ticket still paid more than $1,300 because the third-place finisher was 46-1 shot Mr. Big News. ▪ When Always Dreaming won the 2017 Derby as the 9-2 favorite, the second- and third-place finishers were Lookin At Lee (33-1) and Battle of Midway (40-1). A $1 trifecta wager paid more than $8,000 that year. ▪ And when Mage was the upset winner at 15-1 two years ago, two of the popular betting choices — Two Phil's (9-1) and race favorite Angel of Empire (4-1) — finished second and third, leading to a $1 trifecta payout of $982. In seven of the last eight Derbys, a $1 trifecta bet has paid at least $982, and at least one horse with 15-1 odds or longer has finished in the top three in each of the past six Derbys. It's important to note that win pools are different from the exacta, trifecta and superfecta pools, so a horse's listed odds won't correspond exactly to his value in the exotic bets. But those odds are usually a pretty good indicator of who's a long shot and who isn't when it comes to trifectas. Some candidates — in addition to Final Gambit and Baeza — to spice up those wagers this year: ▪ Arkansas Derby runner-up Publisher looks like a colt with a real chance to finish in the money, given his penchant for coming from the back of the pack and ability to be picking off tired horses in the stretch. He's never won a race — so it would be a pretty big shock if he wins his first one Saturday — but it won't be surprising at all to see him going hard at the end. ▪ Chunk of Gold is an interesting colt and will be one of the longest shots on the board. He lost by nearly 10 lengths to Magnitude back in February, but that horse — off the Derby trail with an injury — turned in one of the best performances of the year that day. Chunk of Gold finished second in the Louisiana Derby after that and has been training splendidly at Turfway Park ever since. ▪ East Avenue has been a perplexing horse over his past four races, with two great performances at Keeneland bookending two absolute duds elsewhere. Of those long shots likely to vie for the early lead Saturday, he seems the best bet to hang around at the end. If he can improve off his gritty run in the Blue Grass Stakes, he could make the trifecta. Good Derby horses if it rains? The weather forecast for Louisville on Saturday is not pretty, with rain almost certain to hit at some point and heavy downpours possible throughout the day. So, what if it rains? While several in this field have run on 'off' tracks before, there's not a whole lot of meaningful history there for anyone in this race. None of the major Kentucky Derby prep races were run in particularly adverse conditions this year. The only horse here that has run on a track labeled as 'sloppy' in 2025 is long-shot Neoequos, who was the wire-to-wire winner of a 6-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park over the slop back in January. Not exactly a great indicator of anything for Saturday. The three top favorites — Journalism, Sandman and Sovereignty — have 19 career races among them, and each of those was run over a fast surface. American Promise did get his first career win over a 'muddy' track at Oaklawn Park on Dec. 29, earning a 95 Beyer — tied for his fastest figure in nine starts — in that race at 1 1/16 miles. Japanese star Luxor Cafe technically has three victories over off tracks this year, but all three of those surfaces were labeled as 'good.' One to watch if it pours is Coal Battle, the feel-good-story colt who beat Sandman, Publisher and Tiztastic in the Rebel Stakes before a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby last time out. Coal Battle is 2-for-2 on wet tracks — both short races in Louisiana at age 2 — and while neither of those starts can compare to the Kentucky Derby, they at least show he's comfortable in the rain. The bigger indicator for possible success in the slop with Coal Battle is the way he runs. This is a fun colt to watch. He has shown some great acceleration in his races and has displayed a stop-and-start ability in morning workouts that lends itself to surefootedness over wet tracks. There are definitely concerns that Coal Battle won't be able to handle the 1¼-mile distance Saturday, but when 3-year-olds get met with this new challenge plus adverse weather conditions for the first time, a lot of preconceived notions can go out the window, and the ones who are comfortable running over the mud can find a way to skip past 'better' horses in the field. That could very well happen Saturday, and Coal Battle is going to be one of the longest shots on the board. Don't ignore him if its a rainy day in Louisville.
Hindustan Times
03-05-2025
- Climate
- Hindustan Times
Kentucky Derby 2025: Rain to change odds; here's the new favourite horses at Churchill Downs
The weather forecast for the Kentucky Derby 2025 has taken a turn, with AccuWeather now predicting a 71% chance of rain for the first Saturday in May. While early clouds may give way to some sun, scattered showers are still likely throughout the day. The National Weather Service echoes a similar outlook, calling for rain and unseasonably high temperatures. This change in weather has affected the odds for the race as well. Also Read: Kentucky Derby 2025 weather forecast: Will rain cancel the 151st race? Are umbrellas allowed inside facility? If you are looking to fine-tune your Kentucky Derby bets in light of the rainy forecast, it's worth considering which horses have experience running on wet tracks. Below is a list of contenders with proven performance in the mud or rain, organised by their program numbers and morning-line odds to help guide your wagering strategy, as reported by the Courier-Journal. Also Read: Kentucky Derby 2025: List of horses at Churchill Downs and how much they cost their owners Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr. Jockey: Luis Saez Neoequos has had a mixed record on sloppy tracks, making him a wildcard in wet conditions. In his debut last July at Gulfstream Park, he failed to finish after being bumped at the start and unseating his rider. However, he redeemed himself on January 23 at the same track, cruising to a 3½-length win in an allowance race run under similar rainy conditions. Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Luan Machado It took Final Gambit three chances to break his maiden, but it is to be noted that it did so in rainy conditions on February 15 on an all-weather track at Turfway Park. The Derby will be his first test on dirt, but assistant trainer Tessa Walden isn't worried. After his strong performance in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, Walden expressed confidence as she said, 'He's got the maturity now to handle something different." Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas Jockey: Nik Juarez American Promise, the son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, picked up his first win on a muddy track at Oaklawn on December 29. Champion of the Virginia Derby has performed in rainy conditions only once other time in his nine-year career. On September 27, he ran the sloppy tracks at Churchill, where he came in eighth position. Trainer: Whit Beckman Jockey: Joe Ramos Flying Mohawk has seen wet conditions early in his career, but the Kentucky Derby will be his first attempt on dirt. He showed promise with a second-place finish on a firm turf track at Kentucky Downs on September 1, but struggled on a softer surface later that month, finishing fifth in the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes on yielding turf at Aqueduct. Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Publisher is set to become just the 13th maiden to run in the Kentucky Derby since 1937. Though he hasn't won yet, the son of Triple Crown champion American Pharoah has placed in five of his seven starts, including solid performances in tough conditions—finishing third on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs and second in the mud at Oaklawn. Trainer: Lonnie Briley Jockey: Juan Vargas Coal Battle, the first graded-stakes winner for trainer Briley in over 30 years, has shown strong form on wet tracks. He broke his maiden last July on a sloppy surface at Evangeline and kicked off a four-race winning streak in November with a 2½-length victory in the mud at Delta Downs.
USA Today
03-05-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Flying Mohawk trainer, jockey, owner and more to know about 2025 Kentucky Derby horse
Flying Mohawk trainer, jockey, owner and more to know about 2025 Kentucky Derby horse Show Caption Hide Caption Bob Baffert: Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown championships and controversy Horse racing trainer Bob Baffert has multiple Kentucky Derby wins, two Triple Crown champions, and a career marked by both triumph and controversy. Flying Mohawk will enter the Kentucky Derby off a runner-up finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks Flying Mohawk trainer Whit Beckman is a 2000 graduate of St. Xavier High School Flying Mohawk is one of 20 horses expected to enter the 2025 Kentucky Derby on May 3 at Churchill Downs. Spots for the Run for the Roses are earned by gaining points through a series of Kentucky Derby prep races that began last September. The post-position draw for the Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, April 26. Post time for the Kentucky Derby is set for 6:57 p.m. on Saturday, May 3. Flying Mohawk will enter the Kentucky Derby off a second-place finish in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 22 at Turfway Park. He currently ranks 15th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. Color: Dark bay. Bred in: Kentucky. Sire: Karakontie. Dam: Bonbons Fleur, by Twirling Candy. Price tag: $72,000 at 2023 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Owners: Two Eight Racing (Jayson Werth); Berry Family Racing (Jeff Berry); Kaleta Racing (Shawn Kaleta). Werth is 0 for 1 in the Derby after finishing 10th with Dornoch in 2024. First Derby for Berry and Kaleta. Trainer: Whit Beckman. He's 0 for 1 in the Derby after finishing eighth with Honor Marie in 2024. Jockey: Joe Ramos. First Derby. Record: 2-2-0 in six starts. Career earnings: $295,800. Road to the Kentucky Derby points: 50 (No. 15). Last race: Second in Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 22 at Turfway Park, 3 ½ lengths behind Flying Gambit. Running style: Closer. Notes: Flying Mohawk's first five races came on turf before moving to the Tapeta surface at Turfway Park for the Jeff Ruby Steaks. The Kentucky Derby will be his first race on dirt. … Co-owner Jayson Werth is a former All-Star outfielder with the Philadelphia Phillies. His Two Eight Racing is a reference to his No. 28 jersey number as a major leaguer. … Beckman is a 2000 graduate of St. Xavier High School in Louisville. A former assistant to Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher, Beckman, 43, went out on his own in 2021. What they're saying: 'Do we have the favorite? No,' Beckman said. 'But we still have a horse who earned his way into the race. No matter where he's run and what he's done, this is a race that long shots can win. This is not something where we go in hopeless. I get that we're going to be a long shot on the board, but the horse doesn't know that.' Last May, NBC Sports announced a partnership with Churchill Downs to present the Kentucky Derby on NBC and Peacock through 2032. The extension includes multiplatform rights to the Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks and Derby and Oaks Day programming, which will be presented on NBC, Peacock, USA Network and additional NBCU platforms. You can stream the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Fubo and Peacock. Post time for the 151st Kentucky Derby is set for 6:57 p.m. on Saturday, May 3. Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@ Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ. More horse racing: Here's how Journalism, likely Kentucky Derby favorite, got his name from a former editor
USA Today
03-05-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Final Gambit trainer, jockey, owner and more to know about 2025 Kentucky Derby horse
Final Gambit trainer, jockey, owner and more to know about 2025 Kentucky Derby horse Show Caption Hide Caption Trainer Brad Cox talks about Kentucky Derby 151 contender Final Gambit Trainer Brad Cox talks about Kentucky Derby 151 contender Final Gambit after a Monday morning workout April 21 at Churchill Downs. Final Gambit will enter the Kentucky Derby off a victory in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 22 Final Gambit is trained by Louisville native Brad Cox Final Gambit is one of 20 horses expected to enter the 2025 Kentucky Derby on May 3 at Churchill Downs. Spots for the Run for the Roses are earned by gaining points through a series of Kentucky Derby prep races that began last September. The post-position draw for the Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, April 26. Post time for the Kentucky Derby is set for 6:57 p.m. on Saturday, May 3. Final Gambit will enter the Kentucky Derby off a victory in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 22 at Turfway Park. He currently ranks seventh on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 100. Color: Gray/roan. Bred in: Kentucky. Sire: Not This Time. Dam: Pachinko, by Tapit. Price tag: Homebred. Owner: Juddmonte (Fahad bin Khalid). Juddmonte is 1 for 6 in the Derby, winning with Mandaloun (via disqualification) in 2021. Trainer: Brad Cox. He's 1 for 11 in the Derby, winning with Mandaloun (via disqualification) in 2021. Jockey: Luan Machado. First Derby. Record: 2-1-1 in four starts. Career earnings: $520,639. Road to the Kentucky Derby points: 100 (No. 7). Last race: Won Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 22 at Turfway Park by 3 ½ lengths over Flying Mohawk. Running style: Closer. Notes: Final Gambit started his career on the turf last November at Churchill Downs, finishing third, before heading to the Tapeta surface at Turfway Park. He broke his maiden in his third career race on Feb. 15 before winning the Jeff Ruby. The Kentucky Derby will be his first race on dirt. … Final Gambit worked five furlongs in 1:00.80 on April 9 on the Churchill Downs dirt. … Cox also trained Pachinko, Final Gambit's dam. Pachinko raced nine times from 2016-18 with a 1-2-2 record, breaking her maiden at Ellis Park in her eighth try. What they're saying: 'He was a horse that was pretty immature from the beginning, so we just developed him slowly and it took him a couple of tries to break his maiden,' assistant trainer Tessa Walden said after the Jeff Ruby victory. 'He's continuously showed the ability to step up, and we thought it was a good time to try. I don't think (the switch to dirt) will be an issue for him. He's got the maturity now to handle something different.' Last May, NBC Sports announced a partnership with Churchill Downs to present the Kentucky Derby on NBC and Peacock through 2032. The extension includes multiplatform rights to the Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks and Derby and Oaks Day programming, which will be presented on NBC, Peacock, USA Network and additional NBCU platforms. You can stream the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Fubo and Peacock. Post time for the 151st Kentucky Derby is set for 6:57 p.m. on Saturday, May 3. Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@ Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ. More horse racing: Five things to know about 2025 Kentucky Derby field as draw approaches April 26 This story was updated to add a gallery.
Boston Globe
02-05-2025
- Sport
- Boston Globe
There's a special connection to Massachusetts for Kentucky Derby horse Flying Mohawk
'As a little kid it was always something,' she said. Her close involvement with horses started when her parents took her to riding lessons for her eighth birthday. McDermott rode for the UMass equestrian team and has worked with other thoroughbred race horses such as Honor Marie and Dornoch, who both had competitive runs in last year's Triple Crown races. Advertisement She now works at Legion Bloodstock, where she helps find horses for sale in hopes of developing and training them into race horses like Flying Mohawk. Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up Flying Mohawk qualified for the Kentucky Derby after finishing second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks in March and drawing into the field when another horse withdrew. The dark brown colt has started in six races and has two wins and two seconds. The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs will be his first time racing on a dirt track. McDermott said her focus is not to go too far outside of the box when picking horses. 'We basically are just looking for an athlete,' she said. 'We just look for a physical horse, we're not always shopping in the pedigree of a horse that'll cost six figures.' Advertisement She said having an influence on a horse in the Derby is important for the representation for Massachusetts in the racing industry. 'I think sometimes people view horse racing as kind of an untouchable thing, but really it's not as hard as people think to get into,' McDermott said. Since Suffolk Downs closed in 2014, she believes the equestrian community has started to dwindle. She wants to have a role in keeping it alive. Don Little, the president and co-owner of Centennial Farms, is familiar with McDermott's work. He said McDermott's work sends a message about representation in the sport. 'People that are involved in horse business are typically perceived as wealthy individuals, and that's not the case,' he said. 'These animals are cared for with a fine-toothed comb daily, like any athlete.' Flying Mohawk is co-owned by former Major League Baseball player Jayson Werth and trained by Whit Beckman. Joseph Ramos is Flying Mohawk's jockey. The post time for the Kentucky Derby is 6:57 p.m. and the race will be televised on NBC and Peacock. Auzzy Byrdsell can be reached at
