Kentucky Derby 2025: Rain to change odds; here's the new favourite horses at Churchill Downs
The weather forecast for the Kentucky Derby 2025 has taken a turn, with AccuWeather now predicting a 71% chance of rain for the first Saturday in May. While early clouds may give way to some sun, scattered showers are still likely throughout the day. The National Weather Service echoes a similar outlook, calling for rain and unseasonably high temperatures. This change in weather has affected the odds for the race as well.
Also Read: Kentucky Derby 2025 weather forecast: Will rain cancel the 151st race? Are umbrellas allowed inside facility?
If you are looking to fine-tune your Kentucky Derby bets in light of the rainy forecast, it's worth considering which horses have experience running on wet tracks. Below is a list of contenders with proven performance in the mud or rain, organised by their program numbers and morning-line odds to help guide your wagering strategy, as reported by the Courier-Journal.
Also Read: Kentucky Derby 2025: List of horses at Churchill Downs and how much they cost their owners
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Luis Saez
Neoequos has had a mixed record on sloppy tracks, making him a wildcard in wet conditions. In his debut last July at Gulfstream Park, he failed to finish after being bumped at the start and unseating his rider. However, he redeemed himself on January 23 at the same track, cruising to a 3½-length win in an allowance race run under similar rainy conditions.
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luan Machado
It took Final Gambit three chances to break his maiden, but it is to be noted that it did so in rainy conditions on February 15 on an all-weather track at Turfway Park. The Derby will be his first test on dirt, but assistant trainer Tessa Walden isn't worried. After his strong performance in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, Walden expressed confidence as she said, 'He's got the maturity now to handle something different."
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Nik Juarez
American Promise, the son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, picked up his first win on a muddy track at Oaklawn on December 29. Champion of the Virginia Derby has performed in rainy conditions only once other time in his nine-year career. On September 27, he ran the sloppy tracks at Churchill, where he came in eighth position.
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Joe Ramos
Flying Mohawk has seen wet conditions early in his career, but the Kentucky Derby will be his first attempt on dirt. He showed promise with a second-place finish on a firm turf track at Kentucky Downs on September 1, but struggled on a softer surface later that month, finishing fifth in the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes on yielding turf at Aqueduct.
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Publisher is set to become just the 13th maiden to run in the Kentucky Derby since 1937. Though he hasn't won yet, the son of Triple Crown champion American Pharoah has placed in five of his seven starts, including solid performances in tough conditions—finishing third on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs and second in the mud at Oaklawn.
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Jockey: Juan Vargas
Coal Battle, the first graded-stakes winner for trainer Briley in over 30 years, has shown strong form on wet tracks. He broke his maiden last July on a sloppy surface at Evangeline and kicked off a four-race winning streak in November with a 2½-length victory in the mud at Delta Downs.
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