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Sydney Morning Herald
02-05-2025
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
It's unanimous: All the polls give Labor the election day edge
Voters are leaning toward Labor in the final stage of the federal election after a steady shift in support over the past month, giving the government an average lead of 52.4 per cent in two-party terms in the last week's opinion polls. The results suggest the Coalition has lost ground since the start of the formal campaign at the end of March and has slipped to an average of 47.6 per cent in two-party terms in the polls conducted over the past week. But the findings across the major public polls also highlight the weakness in the primary vote support for both major parties, raising the prospect of surprise victories for minor parties and independents on election night. With local factors shaping the contests across dozens of seats, the two-party results suggest Labor has an edge over the Coalition but cannot be assured of a majority in parliament. The two-party polling average reflects findings from the Resolve Political Monitor – conducted by research company Resolve Strategic for this masthead – as well as results from Newspoll, Freshwater, Essential and others over the past week. In a sign of the challenges for the Coalition, its polling average in two-party terms was 49 per cent over the past three weeks but has fallen to 47.6 per cent this week across the major polls. Resolve director Jim Reed said the results across all major sources showed a gain for the government in each week of the campaign and confirmed the importance of key events such as Cyclone Alfred in March. Reed said the government also gained ground after the federal budget on March 25 and after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Australia and other countries on April 2. Loading 'Only one of those factors was within Labor's control, so they have been lucky as well as making their own luck,' he said. 'Building on the Reserve Bank's interest rate cut in February, the budget demonstrated a renewed focus and competence from the government.' The major polls show a steadiness in the Labor primary vote and a more pronounced fall in the Coalition primary vote in the campaign, after speculation in recent days about a potential swing to Pauline Hanson's One Nation among conservative voters. The Labor primary vote is 32.2 per cent on average in the major polls over the past week, while the Coalition primary is 33.9 per cent – lower than the average over recent weeks. In a sign that voters are shifting away from the two major parties, the 'other' category has increased slightly. This includes Greens, independents, One Nation and Clive Palmer's Trumpet of Patriots. Reed said the timing of the campaign, which was announced for May 3 because the cyclone made earlier dates too difficult, enabled Labor to throw a spotlight on Dutton. 'He started to look risky just at the time when US tariffs made voters more risk-averse,' he said. The most recent Resolve Political Monitor found that Labor had a clear lead over the Coalition of 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms, but this came with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. The same survey also confirmed the challenges for both major parties with their primary vote support, a key issue when Labor and the Coalition will be relying on preference flows from minor parties such as the Greens or One Nation. The Labor primary vote remains weaker in the Resolve Political Monitor than it was at the last election, down from 32.6 per cent to 31 per cent. The Coalition primary vote was 35 per cent in the latest survey, compared to 35.7 per cent at the last election. The Resolve survey asks voters to nominate their preferences as they would on a ballot paper, generating 'allocated' preferences to calculate the two-party result of 53 to 47 per cent nationwide. The result is the same when it is calculated by the preference flows seen at the last election. 'You should always look at any single poll's error margin when interpreting the results,' said Reed. 'So our result of 53 to 47 per cent could equal a Labor majority or minority government outcome. 'If multiple polls are all saying the same thing, that increases your confidence in the results because added together they have lower error margins, plus you can see that their different methodologies are showing a similar picture. 'Polls deal in likelihoods. Our poll is giving a high likelihood of a Labor majority or minority outcome, with very little chance of the Coalition winning a minority, let alone a majority.' Australian National University senior lecturer Jill Sheppard said it was important to avoid interpreting all polling results as equally 'firm' or 'soft' when there was an element of uncertainty. Loading 'We know that huge numbers of voters are disengaged at this election, and there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for putting yourself firmly in either the Liberal or Labor camps,' she said. 'I think what we're seeing with much of the recent polls is a return of soft Labor voters from 2022, who gave Dutton and the Liberals a hearing during 2024, but have slowly come back to preferring Labor in 2025.' Dr Sheppard, a key researcher with the regular Australian Election Study, said the shift may not be a result of the campaign but a judgment about the Liberal vision and policy offering. 'Some voters who flirted with the party in 2024 could have been persuaded to stay until the election, but what we see instead is a small trickle – two or three percentage points – back to Labor. 'And we see a rise across the board for independents and minor party candidates.' The trend across the major polls since the beginning of the year has shown an increase in the 'other' category that includes independents and minor parties, suggesting these candidates could make gains at the election. What the national polls cannot show, however, is how a major party candidate may be toppled by a minor party or independent candidate who gains a strong primary vote that is much higher than the national result.
The Age
02-05-2025
- Business
- The Age
It's unanimous: All the polls give Labor the election day edge
Voters are leaning toward Labor in the final stage of the federal election after a steady shift in support over the past month, giving the government an average lead of 52.4 per cent in two-party terms in the last week's opinion polls. The results suggest the Coalition has lost ground since the start of the formal campaign at the end of March and has slipped to an average of 47.6 per cent in two-party terms in the polls conducted over the past week. But the findings across the major public polls also highlight the weakness in the primary vote support for both major parties, raising the prospect of surprise victories for minor parties and independents on election night. With local factors shaping the contests across dozens of seats, the two-party results suggest Labor has an edge over the Coalition but cannot be assured of a majority in parliament. The two-party polling average reflects findings from the Resolve Political Monitor – conducted by research company Resolve Strategic for this masthead – as well as results from Newspoll, Freshwater, Essential and others over the past week. In a sign of the challenges for the Coalition, its polling average in two-party terms was 49 per cent over the past three weeks but has fallen to 47.6 per cent this week across the major polls. Resolve director Jim Reed said the results across all major sources showed a gain for the government in each week of the campaign and confirmed the importance of key events such as Cyclone Alfred in March. Reed said the government also gained ground after the federal budget on March 25 and after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Australia and other countries on April 2. Loading 'Only one of those factors was within Labor's control, so they have been lucky as well as making their own luck,' he said. 'Building on the Reserve Bank's interest rate cut in February, the budget demonstrated a renewed focus and competence from the government.' The major polls show a steadiness in the Labor primary vote and a more pronounced fall in the Coalition primary vote in the campaign, after speculation in recent days about a potential swing to Pauline Hanson's One Nation among conservative voters. The Labor primary vote is 32.2 per cent on average in the major polls over the past week, while the Coalition primary is 33.9 per cent – lower than the average over recent weeks. In a sign that voters are shifting away from the two major parties, the 'other' category has increased slightly. This includes Greens, independents, One Nation and Clive Palmer's Trumpet of Patriots. Reed said the timing of the campaign, which was announced for May 3 because the cyclone made earlier dates too difficult, enabled Labor to throw a spotlight on Dutton. 'He started to look risky just at the time when US tariffs made voters more risk-averse,' he said. The most recent Resolve Political Monitor found that Labor had a clear lead over the Coalition of 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms, but this came with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. The same survey also confirmed the challenges for both major parties with their primary vote support, a key issue when Labor and the Coalition will be relying on preference flows from minor parties such as the Greens or One Nation. The Labor primary vote remains weaker in the Resolve Political Monitor than it was at the last election, down from 32.6 per cent to 31 per cent. The Coalition primary vote was 35 per cent in the latest survey, compared to 35.7 per cent at the last election. The Resolve survey asks voters to nominate their preferences as they would on a ballot paper, generating 'allocated' preferences to calculate the two-party result of 53 to 47 per cent nationwide. The result is the same when it is calculated by the preference flows seen at the last election. 'You should always look at any single poll's error margin when interpreting the results,' said Reed. 'So our result of 53 to 47 per cent could equal a Labor majority or minority government outcome. 'If multiple polls are all saying the same thing, that increases your confidence in the results because added together they have lower error margins, plus you can see that their different methodologies are showing a similar picture. 'Polls deal in likelihoods. Our poll is giving a high likelihood of a Labor majority or minority outcome, with very little chance of the Coalition winning a minority, let alone a majority.' Australian National University senior lecturer Jill Sheppard said it was important to avoid interpreting all polling results as equally 'firm' or 'soft' when there was an element of uncertainty. Loading 'We know that huge numbers of voters are disengaged at this election, and there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for putting yourself firmly in either the Liberal or Labor camps,' she said. 'I think what we're seeing with much of the recent polls is a return of soft Labor voters from 2022, who gave Dutton and the Liberals a hearing during 2024, but have slowly come back to preferring Labor in 2025.' Dr Sheppard, a key researcher with the regular Australian Election Study, said the shift may not be a result of the campaign but a judgment about the Liberal vision and policy offering. 'Some voters who flirted with the party in 2024 could have been persuaded to stay until the election, but what we see instead is a small trickle – two or three percentage points – back to Labor. 'And we see a rise across the board for independents and minor party candidates.' The trend across the major polls since the beginning of the year has shown an increase in the 'other' category that includes independents and minor parties, suggesting these candidates could make gains at the election. What the national polls cannot show, however, is how a major party candidate may be toppled by a minor party or independent candidate who gains a strong primary vote that is much higher than the national result.
Sydney Morning Herald
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
How UberEats killed the democracy sausage
Call me a wonk, a nerd, a bore, but I love election day. The sense of anticipation around who will emerge victorious, the atmosphere on the polling booths, the new trend of doggy bandanas spruiking candidates and, of course, the quintessential election day sausage sizzle. Yet, I fear I am an outlier, based on early voting numbers ahead of Saturday's election. By close of business on Tuesday, just over 4 million Australians had already cast their vote, almost 800,000 more than at the same point in the 2022 campaign. And all without a sausage touching a barbecue. There is apathy towards politics, no doubt, and this election campaign has been far from inspiring. But is the democracy sausage being replaced by UberEats? Is convenience now more important than the time-honoured tradition of turning out en masse on a single day with our fellow Australians and exercising our democratic right? Yes, there needs to be flexibility for those groups who need it but early voting has gone too far. Too many people are doing it for ease rather than out of necessity. Once there was the camaraderie of turning out on election day, buying a sausage to support your local school's P&C and carrying out your civic duty. Now, rather than embracing the day, voters are schlepping to the 500 early polling centres across the country and casting their ballot early, often before final policies are even released. Jim Reed, the director of Resolve Strategic which conducts exclusive surveys for this masthead, summed it up perfectly when I asked him for his thoughts on this rise in early voting. 'The sausage sizzle has given way to Guzman y Gomez on UberEats the week before.' Reed says there is nothing peculiar about this election. 'Early voting has been rising at federal and state elections for some years,' says Reed, 'so I don't think it reflects a particular outcome. It's more about convenience. During COVID we got used to the convenience of WFH, Deliveroo, telehealth, and voting early is convenient for a lot of people. It'll likely rise again this time, but the blitzkrieg of votes last week was more about the [Easter and Anzac Day] holidays meaning more people at home with free time.' Despite making it easier than ever for people to vote, turnout has been steadily decreasing since 2007 in Australia. For the first time since compulsory voting was introduced for the 1925 federal election, turnout fell below 90 per cent at the last general election.
The Age
30-04-2025
- Politics
- The Age
How UberEats killed the democracy sausage
Call me a wonk, a nerd, a bore, but I love election day. The sense of anticipation around who will emerge victorious, the atmosphere on the polling booths, the new trend of doggy bandanas spruiking candidates and, of course, the quintessential election day sausage sizzle. Yet, I fear I am an outlier, based on early voting numbers ahead of Saturday's election. By close of business on Tuesday, just over 4 million Australians had already cast their vote, almost 800,000 more than at the same point in the 2022 campaign. And all without a sausage touching a barbecue. There is apathy towards politics, no doubt, and this election campaign has been far from inspiring. But is the democracy sausage being replaced by UberEats? Is convenience now more important than the time-honoured tradition of turning out en masse on a single day with our fellow Australians and exercising our democratic right? Yes, there needs to be flexibility for those groups who need it but early voting has gone too far. Too many people are doing it for ease rather than out of necessity. Once there was the camaraderie of turning out on election day, buying a sausage to support your local school's P&C and carrying out your civic duty. Now, rather than embracing the day, voters are schlepping to the 500 early polling centres across the country and casting their ballot early, often before final policies are even released. Jim Reed, the director of Resolve Strategic which conducts exclusive surveys for this masthead, summed it up perfectly when I asked him for his thoughts on this rise in early voting. 'The sausage sizzle has given way to Guzman y Gomez on UberEats the week before.' Reed says there is nothing peculiar about this election. 'Early voting has been rising at federal and state elections for some years,' says Reed, 'so I don't think it reflects a particular outcome. It's more about convenience. During COVID we got used to the convenience of WFH, Deliveroo, telehealth, and voting early is convenient for a lot of people. It'll likely rise again this time, but the blitzkrieg of votes last week was more about the [Easter and Anzac Day] holidays meaning more people at home with free time.' Despite making it easier than ever for people to vote, turnout has been steadily decreasing since 2007 in Australia. For the first time since compulsory voting was introduced for the 1925 federal election, turnout fell below 90 per cent at the last general election.
Yahoo
21-04-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
Excellus calls on Congress to protect seniors in Upstate New York
(WIVT/WBGH) – Several non-profit health plans across Upstate New York are calling on Congress to protect older adults. Excellus BlueCross BlueShield, CDPHP, and MVP Health Care have partnered together to urge elected officials to pass bipartisan legislation that will protect Medicare Advantage benefits and access to care for hundreds of thousands of members. According to Excellus, nearly 450,000 Medicare Advantage members in Upstate New York may face increased premiums, higher out-of-pocket costs, and fewer choices due to the financial effects of unprecedented changes to the Medicare wage index. 'We remain grateful for the support and leadership of those in Congress who continue to fight for older adults in our communities,' said Jim Reed, President and CEO of Excellus BCBS. 'We have faith that New York's congressional delegation will find a solution to avoid catastrophic consequences for nearly 450,000 Medicare Advantage members with not-for-profit health plans in upstate New York.' In 2023, a change in how the federal government sets hospital reimbursement rates for Medicare resulted in financial losses for non-profit health plans upstate. Excellus says non-profit plans absorbed hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. The plans cannot sustain these growing losses along with the escalating costs of health care. 'Our local, not-for-profit plans will continue to battle the effects of the wage index, which has left the future of our great health plan – and the 75,000 older adults who entrust us with their care – in jeopardy,' said Brian O'Grady, President and CEO of CDPHP. In May 2024, Congresswoman Claudia Tenney introduced bipartisan legislation to strengthen Medicare Advantage plans in Upstate New York. However, Congress did not act on this legislation before the end of the previous Congress term in December 2024. Tenney, along with other members of Congress, have since reintroduced the legislation. The legislation would adjust the amounts reimbursed to health plans to ensure regional, non-profit Medicare Advantage plans remain viable and members maintain access to benefits and access to care. 'We thank Congresswoman Tenney and our bipartisan Congressional delegation for supporting this imperative legislation,' said Chris Del Vecchio, CEO of MVP Health Care. 'This bill will authorize CMS to make a region-specific Medicare adjustment to level the playing field for local, not-for-profit, community-based plans. It will ensure that MVP can continue to innovate with our community provider partners and provide critical benefits to our Medicare members.' Excellus calls on Congress to protect seniors in Upstate New York City of Binghamton hosting paint recycling event Teen shot in Binghamton while driving, in stable condition BCSO searching for missing Endicott man Crews respond to Sunday morning house fire in Binghamton Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
