It's unanimous: All the polls give Labor the election day edge
Voters are leaning toward Labor in the final stage of the federal election after a steady shift in support over the past month, giving the government an average lead of 52.4 per cent in two-party terms in the last week's opinion polls.
The results suggest the Coalition has lost ground since the start of the formal campaign at the end of March and has slipped to an average of 47.6 per cent in two-party terms in the polls conducted over the past week.
But the findings across the major public polls also highlight the weakness in the primary vote support for both major parties, raising the prospect of surprise victories for minor parties and independents on election night.
With local factors shaping the contests across dozens of seats, the two-party results suggest Labor has an edge over the Coalition but cannot be assured of a majority in parliament.
The two-party polling average reflects findings from the Resolve Political Monitor – conducted by research company Resolve Strategic for this masthead – as well as results from Newspoll, Freshwater, Essential and others over the past week.
In a sign of the challenges for the Coalition, its polling average in two-party terms was 49 per cent over the past three weeks but has fallen to 47.6 per cent this week across the major polls.
Resolve director Jim Reed said the results across all major sources showed a gain for the government in each week of the campaign and confirmed the importance of key events such as Cyclone Alfred in March.
Reed said the government also gained ground after the federal budget on March 25 and after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Australia and other countries on April 2.
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'Only one of those factors was within Labor's control, so they have been lucky as well as making their own luck,' he said.
'Building on the Reserve Bank's interest rate cut in February, the budget demonstrated a renewed focus and competence from the government.'
The major polls show a steadiness in the Labor primary vote and a more pronounced fall in the Coalition primary vote in the campaign, after speculation in recent days about a potential swing to Pauline Hanson's One Nation among conservative voters.
The Labor primary vote is 32.2 per cent on average in the major polls over the past week, while the Coalition primary is 33.9 per cent – lower than the average over recent weeks.
In a sign that voters are shifting away from the two major parties, the 'other' category has increased slightly. This includes Greens, independents, One Nation and Clive Palmer's Trumpet of Patriots.
Reed said the timing of the campaign, which was announced for May 3 because the cyclone made earlier dates too difficult, enabled Labor to throw a spotlight on Dutton.
'He started to look risky just at the time when US tariffs made voters more risk-averse,' he said.
The most recent Resolve Political Monitor found that Labor had a clear lead over the Coalition of 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms, but this came with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.
The same survey also confirmed the challenges for both major parties with their primary vote support, a key issue when Labor and the Coalition will be relying on preference flows from minor parties such as the Greens or One Nation.
The Labor primary vote remains weaker in the Resolve Political Monitor than it was at the last election, down from 32.6 per cent to 31 per cent. The Coalition primary vote was 35 per cent in the latest survey, compared to 35.7 per cent at the last election.
The Resolve survey asks voters to nominate their preferences as they would on a ballot paper, generating 'allocated' preferences to calculate the two-party result of 53 to 47 per cent nationwide. The result is the same when it is calculated by the preference flows seen at the last election.
'You should always look at any single poll's error margin when interpreting the results,' said Reed.
'So our result of 53 to 47 per cent could equal a Labor majority or minority government outcome.
'If multiple polls are all saying the same thing, that increases your confidence in the results because added together they have lower error margins, plus you can see that their different methodologies are showing a similar picture.
'Polls deal in likelihoods. Our poll is giving a high likelihood of a Labor majority or minority outcome, with very little chance of the Coalition winning a minority, let alone a majority.'
Australian National University senior lecturer Jill Sheppard said it was important to avoid interpreting all polling results as equally 'firm' or 'soft' when there was an element of uncertainty.
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'We know that huge numbers of voters are disengaged at this election, and there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for putting yourself firmly in either the Liberal or Labor camps,' she said.
'I think what we're seeing with much of the recent polls is a return of soft Labor voters from 2022, who gave Dutton and the Liberals a hearing during 2024, but have slowly come back to preferring Labor in 2025.'
Dr Sheppard, a key researcher with the regular Australian Election Study, said the shift may not be a result of the campaign but a judgment about the Liberal vision and policy offering.
'Some voters who flirted with the party in 2024 could have been persuaded to stay until the election, but what we see instead is a small trickle – two or three percentage points – back to Labor.
'And we see a rise across the board for independents and minor party candidates.'
The trend across the major polls since the beginning of the year has shown an increase in the 'other' category that includes independents and minor parties, suggesting these candidates could make gains at the election.
What the national polls cannot show, however, is how a major party candidate may be toppled by a minor party or independent candidate who gains a strong primary vote that is much higher than the national result.
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Households in NSW promised federal and state government discounts on a new home solar battery have been told they are no longer eligible for both and will need to start from scratch. Australians with rooftop solar rushed to take advantage of the new federal "cheaper home batteries" discount - worth about $4000 on a typical 11.5kWh battery - in the wake of Labor's May election win. Many installers took orders and started fitting batteries on the basis the federal rebate could be claimed after July 1 on top of any state schemes. But the NSW government on June 10 announced it was scrapping its existing discount after only seven months. Instead, it decided to expand a program to encourage households to sell power stored in batteries back to the market through virtual power plants. This left installers with a lot difficult phone calls to make to battery customers who they'd promised would receive both the state Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS) discount and the federal rebate on new batteries. Some customers who had not yet had a battery fitted were offered refunds on their deposits, or new quotes with the NSW discount - sometimes worth thousands of dollars - removed. "There have been no circumstances where people can claim solar battery installation incentives under both the commonwealth and NSW schemes," a spokesman for the NSW energy department said. "We recommend that households and small businesses contact their installer to discuss any quote that claimed both incentives would apply." Installers would likely have to bear the cost of the state discount they expected where households had already paid for, and received, their battery. Solar Battery Group, which operates nationally and has been installing 40 batteries a day since the government's re-election on May 3, was one of those. "If the customer is adamant they don't want to change the size of battery or the specifications, then yes, we will wear it," chief executive James Hetherington said. "We've had a lot of people wanting finance that are very confused because those [NSW] laws changed." Mr Hetherington said each business made a choice about how to respond to the federal funding - but new policy "hand grenades" were coming thick and fast across the country. "They did warn all of us: 'Install at your own risk'," he said. "They made that quite clear and we all made our own individual decisions on what risks we were going to take based on our own margins, on our own business models." He said the industry was moving very fast. "It's never moved like this in its history with batteries. "It's had this, obviously, many times with solar and solar panels, but the battery industry is not used to this, so it's got a few growing pains in the next six months," Mr Hetherington said. A spokeswoman for Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the federal battery discount was always designed to be used in conjunction with state incentives. "We designed the cheaper home batteries program to be stackable with state incentives, and it is," she said. "NSW are now also offering a battery incentive, for joining virtual power plants, which is stackable with ours. "The design and balance of NSW incentives is a matter for them, but giving more people more support to get batteries and join [virtual power plants] is good news for the industry." But the industry at a wider level was nonetheless disappointed in the cancellation of the NSW battery installation discount. "The announcement of the new NSW scheme was not the outcome they had expected or wanted," Smart Energy Council acting chief executive Wayne Smith said. "Industry has been operating under a great deal of uncertainty as they awaited clarity around the NSW PDRS that's caused considerable pain for many," he said. "The cuts to the scheme will continue to cause pain." RESINC Solar and Batteries founder Leigh Storr did not offer customers both NSW and federal installation discounts. "I feel for any installers who've jumped the gun," he said. "What they've been selling on is hope." He said the cheaper home batteries discount was a large enough incentive on its own to encourage battery take up. "I'm in huge support of what Chris Bowen has done," Mr Storr said. The PDRS scheme in NSW, which delivered about 11,000 rebates in first six months of the program, will be scrapped after June 30. Instead households with batteries are eligible for up to $1500 to help more connect to virtual power plants, which take customers' excess energy stored in batteries and sell it on. "From 1 July the NSW Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS) incentives for installing a battery will be suspended, but the consumers will have access to higher incentives under the commonwealth cheaper home batteries program," an NSW energy department spokesman said. "Incentives under the NSW PDRS to connect batteries to virtual power plants (VPPs) will almost double, and can be stacked with the commonwealth program." Any new batteries cannot be turned on before July 1 in order to be eligible for the federal discount under the $2.3 billion cheaper home batteries program. Households in NSW promised federal and state government discounts on a new home solar battery have been told they are no longer eligible for both and will need to start from scratch. Australians with rooftop solar rushed to take advantage of the new federal "cheaper home batteries" discount - worth about $4000 on a typical 11.5kWh battery - in the wake of Labor's May election win. Many installers took orders and started fitting batteries on the basis the federal rebate could be claimed after July 1 on top of any state schemes. But the NSW government on June 10 announced it was scrapping its existing discount after only seven months. Instead, it decided to expand a program to encourage households to sell power stored in batteries back to the market through virtual power plants. This left installers with a lot difficult phone calls to make to battery customers who they'd promised would receive both the state Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS) discount and the federal rebate on new batteries. Some customers who had not yet had a battery fitted were offered refunds on their deposits, or new quotes with the NSW discount - sometimes worth thousands of dollars - removed. "There have been no circumstances where people can claim solar battery installation incentives under both the commonwealth and NSW schemes," a spokesman for the NSW energy department said. "We recommend that households and small businesses contact their installer to discuss any quote that claimed both incentives would apply." Installers would likely have to bear the cost of the state discount they expected where households had already paid for, and received, their battery. Solar Battery Group, which operates nationally and has been installing 40 batteries a day since the government's re-election on May 3, was one of those. "If the customer is adamant they don't want to change the size of battery or the specifications, then yes, we will wear it," chief executive James Hetherington said. "We've had a lot of people wanting finance that are very confused because those [NSW] laws changed." Mr Hetherington said each business made a choice about how to respond to the federal funding - but new policy "hand grenades" were coming thick and fast across the country. "They did warn all of us: 'Install at your own risk'," he said. "They made that quite clear and we all made our own individual decisions on what risks we were going to take based on our own margins, on our own business models." He said the industry was moving very fast. "It's never moved like this in its history with batteries. "It's had this, obviously, many times with solar and solar panels, but the battery industry is not used to this, so it's got a few growing pains in the next six months," Mr Hetherington said. A spokeswoman for Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the federal battery discount was always designed to be used in conjunction with state incentives. "We designed the cheaper home batteries program to be stackable with state incentives, and it is," she said. "NSW are now also offering a battery incentive, for joining virtual power plants, which is stackable with ours. "The design and balance of NSW incentives is a matter for them, but giving more people more support to get batteries and join [virtual power plants] is good news for the industry." But the industry at a wider level was nonetheless disappointed in the cancellation of the NSW battery installation discount. "The announcement of the new NSW scheme was not the outcome they had expected or wanted," Smart Energy Council acting chief executive Wayne Smith said. "Industry has been operating under a great deal of uncertainty as they awaited clarity around the NSW PDRS that's caused considerable pain for many," he said. "The cuts to the scheme will continue to cause pain." RESINC Solar and Batteries founder Leigh Storr did not offer customers both NSW and federal installation discounts. "I feel for any installers who've jumped the gun," he said. "What they've been selling on is hope." He said the cheaper home batteries discount was a large enough incentive on its own to encourage battery take up. "I'm in huge support of what Chris Bowen has done," Mr Storr said. The PDRS scheme in NSW, which delivered about 11,000 rebates in first six months of the program, will be scrapped after June 30. Instead households with batteries are eligible for up to $1500 to help more connect to virtual power plants, which take customers' excess energy stored in batteries and sell it on. "From 1 July the NSW Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS) incentives for installing a battery will be suspended, but the consumers will have access to higher incentives under the commonwealth cheaper home batteries program," an NSW energy department spokesman said. "Incentives under the NSW PDRS to connect batteries to virtual power plants (VPPs) will almost double, and can be stacked with the commonwealth program." Any new batteries cannot be turned on before July 1 in order to be eligible for the federal discount under the $2.3 billion cheaper home batteries program. Households in NSW promised federal and state government discounts on a new home solar battery have been told they are no longer eligible for both and will need to start from scratch. Australians with rooftop solar rushed to take advantage of the new federal "cheaper home batteries" discount - worth about $4000 on a typical 11.5kWh battery - in the wake of Labor's May election win. Many installers took orders and started fitting batteries on the basis the federal rebate could be claimed after July 1 on top of any state schemes. But the NSW government on June 10 announced it was scrapping its existing discount after only seven months. Instead, it decided to expand a program to encourage households to sell power stored in batteries back to the market through virtual power plants. This left installers with a lot difficult phone calls to make to battery customers who they'd promised would receive both the state Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS) discount and the federal rebate on new batteries. Some customers who had not yet had a battery fitted were offered refunds on their deposits, or new quotes with the NSW discount - sometimes worth thousands of dollars - removed. "There have been no circumstances where people can claim solar battery installation incentives under both the commonwealth and NSW schemes," a spokesman for the NSW energy department said. "We recommend that households and small businesses contact their installer to discuss any quote that claimed both incentives would apply." Installers would likely have to bear the cost of the state discount they expected where households had already paid for, and received, their battery. Solar Battery Group, which operates nationally and has been installing 40 batteries a day since the government's re-election on May 3, was one of those. "If the customer is adamant they don't want to change the size of battery or the specifications, then yes, we will wear it," chief executive James Hetherington said. "We've had a lot of people wanting finance that are very confused because those [NSW] laws changed." Mr Hetherington said each business made a choice about how to respond to the federal funding - but new policy "hand grenades" were coming thick and fast across the country. "They did warn all of us: 'Install at your own risk'," he said. "They made that quite clear and we all made our own individual decisions on what risks we were going to take based on our own margins, on our own business models." He said the industry was moving very fast. "It's never moved like this in its history with batteries. "It's had this, obviously, many times with solar and solar panels, but the battery industry is not used to this, so it's got a few growing pains in the next six months," Mr Hetherington said. A spokeswoman for Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the federal battery discount was always designed to be used in conjunction with state incentives. "We designed the cheaper home batteries program to be stackable with state incentives, and it is," she said. "NSW are now also offering a battery incentive, for joining virtual power plants, which is stackable with ours. "The design and balance of NSW incentives is a matter for them, but giving more people more support to get batteries and join [virtual power plants] is good news for the industry." But the industry at a wider level was nonetheless disappointed in the cancellation of the NSW battery installation discount. "The announcement of the new NSW scheme was not the outcome they had expected or wanted," Smart Energy Council acting chief executive Wayne Smith said. "Industry has been operating under a great deal of uncertainty as they awaited clarity around the NSW PDRS that's caused considerable pain for many," he said. "The cuts to the scheme will continue to cause pain." RESINC Solar and Batteries founder Leigh Storr did not offer customers both NSW and federal installation discounts. "I feel for any installers who've jumped the gun," he said. "What they've been selling on is hope." He said the cheaper home batteries discount was a large enough incentive on its own to encourage battery take up. "I'm in huge support of what Chris Bowen has done," Mr Storr said. The PDRS scheme in NSW, which delivered about 11,000 rebates in first six months of the program, will be scrapped after June 30. Instead households with batteries are eligible for up to $1500 to help more connect to virtual power plants, which take customers' excess energy stored in batteries and sell it on. "From 1 July the NSW Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS) incentives for installing a battery will be suspended, but the consumers will have access to higher incentives under the commonwealth cheaper home batteries program," an NSW energy department spokesman said. "Incentives under the NSW PDRS to connect batteries to virtual power plants (VPPs) will almost double, and can be stacked with the commonwealth program." Any new batteries cannot be turned on before July 1 in order to be eligible for the federal discount under the $2.3 billion cheaper home batteries program. Households in NSW promised federal and state government discounts on a new home solar battery have been told they are no longer eligible for both and will need to start from scratch. Australians with rooftop solar rushed to take advantage of the new federal "cheaper home batteries" discount - worth about $4000 on a typical 11.5kWh battery - in the wake of Labor's May election win. Many installers took orders and started fitting batteries on the basis the federal rebate could be claimed after July 1 on top of any state schemes. But the NSW government on June 10 announced it was scrapping its existing discount after only seven months. Instead, it decided to expand a program to encourage households to sell power stored in batteries back to the market through virtual power plants. This left installers with a lot difficult phone calls to make to battery customers who they'd promised would receive both the state Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS) discount and the federal rebate on new batteries. Some customers who had not yet had a battery fitted were offered refunds on their deposits, or new quotes with the NSW discount - sometimes worth thousands of dollars - removed. "There have been no circumstances where people can claim solar battery installation incentives under both the commonwealth and NSW schemes," a spokesman for the NSW energy department said. "We recommend that households and small businesses contact their installer to discuss any quote that claimed both incentives would apply." Installers would likely have to bear the cost of the state discount they expected where households had already paid for, and received, their battery. Solar Battery Group, which operates nationally and has been installing 40 batteries a day since the government's re-election on May 3, was one of those. "If the customer is adamant they don't want to change the size of battery or the specifications, then yes, we will wear it," chief executive James Hetherington said. "We've had a lot of people wanting finance that are very confused because those [NSW] laws changed." Mr Hetherington said each business made a choice about how to respond to the federal funding - but new policy "hand grenades" were coming thick and fast across the country. "They did warn all of us: 'Install at your own risk'," he said. "They made that quite clear and we all made our own individual decisions on what risks we were going to take based on our own margins, on our own business models." He said the industry was moving very fast. "It's never moved like this in its history with batteries. "It's had this, obviously, many times with solar and solar panels, but the battery industry is not used to this, so it's got a few growing pains in the next six months," Mr Hetherington said. A spokeswoman for Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the federal battery discount was always designed to be used in conjunction with state incentives. "We designed the cheaper home batteries program to be stackable with state incentives, and it is," she said. "NSW are now also offering a battery incentive, for joining virtual power plants, which is stackable with ours. "The design and balance of NSW incentives is a matter for them, but giving more people more support to get batteries and join [virtual power plants] is good news for the industry." But the industry at a wider level was nonetheless disappointed in the cancellation of the NSW battery installation discount. "The announcement of the new NSW scheme was not the outcome they had expected or wanted," Smart Energy Council acting chief executive Wayne Smith said. "Industry has been operating under a great deal of uncertainty as they awaited clarity around the NSW PDRS that's caused considerable pain for many," he said. "The cuts to the scheme will continue to cause pain." RESINC Solar and Batteries founder Leigh Storr did not offer customers both NSW and federal installation discounts. "I feel for any installers who've jumped the gun," he said. "What they've been selling on is hope." He said the cheaper home batteries discount was a large enough incentive on its own to encourage battery take up. "I'm in huge support of what Chris Bowen has done," Mr Storr said. The PDRS scheme in NSW, which delivered about 11,000 rebates in first six months of the program, will be scrapped after June 30. Instead households with batteries are eligible for up to $1500 to help more connect to virtual power plants, which take customers' excess energy stored in batteries and sell it on. "From 1 July the NSW Peak Demand Reduction Scheme (PDRS) incentives for installing a battery will be suspended, but the consumers will have access to higher incentives under the commonwealth cheaper home batteries program," an NSW energy department spokesman said. "Incentives under the NSW PDRS to connect batteries to virtual power plants (VPPs) will almost double, and can be stacked with the commonwealth program." Any new batteries cannot be turned on before July 1 in order to be eligible for the federal discount under the $2.3 billion cheaper home batteries program.


The Advertiser
30 minutes ago
- The Advertiser
Tassie stadium plan is a lot of bread for a circus
This is a sample of The Echidna newsletter sent out each weekday morning. To sign up for FREE, go to Imagine you open your letter box and there are four bills inside, one for each member of your family, including the two kids who are still at school. You open them and the amount each of you owe is $1247. That's roughly what each and every Tasmanian will be up for if the lower estimate of the cost of the contentious Macquarie Point stadium - $945 million - is accurate. This takes into account the federal pledge of $240 million, announced during a disastrous visit to the site by Anthony Albanese in April 2023, which saw him beating a hasty retreat as a crowd of hecklers descended on the event demanding that money be spent on desperately needed housing. The bill for Tasmanians will be even more if the higher estimate of $1.1 billion proves correct. Of course, there'll be no bill in the mail. The cost will be borne by what's not spent in other areas like health, education, infrastructure and affordable housing and the estimated $1.86 billion in debt racked up over a decade. It's a lot of bread for a circus. The state's ballooning debt was the trigger for the Labor opposition's successful no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff which has put government on hold while the governor works out whether to grant the request for an early election or ask the parliament to seek an alternative leader. The no-confidence motion and its disruption to government risks the state missing the deadlines laid down in the licensing agreement with the AFL. Yet the Labor leader insists he will continue to support the stadium should he find himself at the helm. That's despite the stadium diktat imposed by the AFL being deeply unpopular across Tasmania, not least because no similar demands were made of other recent regional additions to the league. An assessment by the independent Tasmanian Planning Commission was damning. The roofed 23,000-seat structure, it said, was "disproportionate to Hobart's small scale and would be contrary to Hobart's visual values". An artist's impression of what it would look from the eastern shore of the Derwent is like a still from sci-fi movie, an alien mothership squatting under the snowy flanks of kunanyi, dwarfing the heritage buildings around it. No wonder Hobart hates the idea. What's irksome from my non-sporting mainland perspective is the power wielded by the AFL. To set such onerous conditions on a state that wants to field its own team in the national comp is bad enough. To have the federal government pitch in with a promise of millions is even worse. This is when the AFL is flush with cash from a $4.5 billion TV licensing deal with the Seven Network and Foxtel. To use the vernacular of the querulous Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie, if they want a stadium with a roof, they can bloody well pay for it. HAVE YOUR SAY: Has Big Sport become too powerful in Australia? Should mainland taxpayers help pay for the Tasmanian stadium? Do both major parties in Tasmania look foolish for backing the stadium despite the opposition to it? Email us: echidna@ SHARE THE LOVE: If you enjoy The Echidna, forward it to a friend so they can sign up, too. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: - The ABC has announced the end of the political panel program Q+A after 18 years on air. - Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has dismissed as "predictable" criticism of Australia's move to join four other countries in hitting two right-wing Israeli ministers with sanctions over West Bank settlements, as the opposition demands a briefing on the decision. - The number of industrial disputes has fallen to a two-year low, new figures reveal, despite major work outages affecting public transport commuters. THEY SAID IT: "The state government needs to go and tell the AFL where to stick it right now and tell them it's not going to play the game." - Senator Jacqui Lambie YOU SAID IT: The shooting of an Aussie reporter with a rubber bullet during the Los Angeles unrest reinforces the feeling the US is becoming an unsafe banana republic. "How long, I wonder, before we see a travel warning issued for the US?" asks Liz. "Calling it 'law and order' while pardoning actual insurrectionists is like burning down a fire station and calling it urban renewal," writes Mike. "The republic doesn't just smell like banana - it's practically slipping on the peel in front of the whole world." "I am a resident of Minnesota, a democratic state in the USA, and am appalled at the whole Trump situation over here, but especially when the Australian reporter was purposely shot with the rubber bullet," writes Carolyn. "I encourage people to stay away from my country for the foreseeable future which makes me sad because I have had wonderful visits from friends from your beautiful country." Allan, who lived in Los Angeles for six years in the 1980s, writes: "We've visited the USA numerous times since, but never again. Our initial concerns as we've grown older were with their health system, where serious illness could literally cost millions. Now the political situation is what worries us. I wouldn't rule out something akin to civil war the way things are escalating. But no, I don't think Albanese should raise the Tomasi shooting with Trump personally, it would achieve nothing and detract from other more important discussions." "Civil war was averted when Trump won the election," writes Arthur. "It now looks as though it was only a temporary reprieve." This is a sample of The Echidna newsletter sent out each weekday morning. To sign up for FREE, go to Imagine you open your letter box and there are four bills inside, one for each member of your family, including the two kids who are still at school. You open them and the amount each of you owe is $1247. That's roughly what each and every Tasmanian will be up for if the lower estimate of the cost of the contentious Macquarie Point stadium - $945 million - is accurate. This takes into account the federal pledge of $240 million, announced during a disastrous visit to the site by Anthony Albanese in April 2023, which saw him beating a hasty retreat as a crowd of hecklers descended on the event demanding that money be spent on desperately needed housing. The bill for Tasmanians will be even more if the higher estimate of $1.1 billion proves correct. Of course, there'll be no bill in the mail. The cost will be borne by what's not spent in other areas like health, education, infrastructure and affordable housing and the estimated $1.86 billion in debt racked up over a decade. It's a lot of bread for a circus. The state's ballooning debt was the trigger for the Labor opposition's successful no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff which has put government on hold while the governor works out whether to grant the request for an early election or ask the parliament to seek an alternative leader. The no-confidence motion and its disruption to government risks the state missing the deadlines laid down in the licensing agreement with the AFL. Yet the Labor leader insists he will continue to support the stadium should he find himself at the helm. That's despite the stadium diktat imposed by the AFL being deeply unpopular across Tasmania, not least because no similar demands were made of other recent regional additions to the league. An assessment by the independent Tasmanian Planning Commission was damning. The roofed 23,000-seat structure, it said, was "disproportionate to Hobart's small scale and would be contrary to Hobart's visual values". An artist's impression of what it would look from the eastern shore of the Derwent is like a still from sci-fi movie, an alien mothership squatting under the snowy flanks of kunanyi, dwarfing the heritage buildings around it. No wonder Hobart hates the idea. What's irksome from my non-sporting mainland perspective is the power wielded by the AFL. To set such onerous conditions on a state that wants to field its own team in the national comp is bad enough. To have the federal government pitch in with a promise of millions is even worse. This is when the AFL is flush with cash from a $4.5 billion TV licensing deal with the Seven Network and Foxtel. To use the vernacular of the querulous Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie, if they want a stadium with a roof, they can bloody well pay for it. HAVE YOUR SAY: Has Big Sport become too powerful in Australia? Should mainland taxpayers help pay for the Tasmanian stadium? Do both major parties in Tasmania look foolish for backing the stadium despite the opposition to it? Email us: echidna@ SHARE THE LOVE: If you enjoy The Echidna, forward it to a friend so they can sign up, too. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: - The ABC has announced the end of the political panel program Q+A after 18 years on air. - Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has dismissed as "predictable" criticism of Australia's move to join four other countries in hitting two right-wing Israeli ministers with sanctions over West Bank settlements, as the opposition demands a briefing on the decision. - The number of industrial disputes has fallen to a two-year low, new figures reveal, despite major work outages affecting public transport commuters. THEY SAID IT: "The state government needs to go and tell the AFL where to stick it right now and tell them it's not going to play the game." - Senator Jacqui Lambie YOU SAID IT: The shooting of an Aussie reporter with a rubber bullet during the Los Angeles unrest reinforces the feeling the US is becoming an unsafe banana republic. "How long, I wonder, before we see a travel warning issued for the US?" asks Liz. "Calling it 'law and order' while pardoning actual insurrectionists is like burning down a fire station and calling it urban renewal," writes Mike. "The republic doesn't just smell like banana - it's practically slipping on the peel in front of the whole world." "I am a resident of Minnesota, a democratic state in the USA, and am appalled at the whole Trump situation over here, but especially when the Australian reporter was purposely shot with the rubber bullet," writes Carolyn. "I encourage people to stay away from my country for the foreseeable future which makes me sad because I have had wonderful visits from friends from your beautiful country." Allan, who lived in Los Angeles for six years in the 1980s, writes: "We've visited the USA numerous times since, but never again. Our initial concerns as we've grown older were with their health system, where serious illness could literally cost millions. Now the political situation is what worries us. I wouldn't rule out something akin to civil war the way things are escalating. But no, I don't think Albanese should raise the Tomasi shooting with Trump personally, it would achieve nothing and detract from other more important discussions." "Civil war was averted when Trump won the election," writes Arthur. "It now looks as though it was only a temporary reprieve." This is a sample of The Echidna newsletter sent out each weekday morning. To sign up for FREE, go to Imagine you open your letter box and there are four bills inside, one for each member of your family, including the two kids who are still at school. You open them and the amount each of you owe is $1247. That's roughly what each and every Tasmanian will be up for if the lower estimate of the cost of the contentious Macquarie Point stadium - $945 million - is accurate. This takes into account the federal pledge of $240 million, announced during a disastrous visit to the site by Anthony Albanese in April 2023, which saw him beating a hasty retreat as a crowd of hecklers descended on the event demanding that money be spent on desperately needed housing. The bill for Tasmanians will be even more if the higher estimate of $1.1 billion proves correct. Of course, there'll be no bill in the mail. The cost will be borne by what's not spent in other areas like health, education, infrastructure and affordable housing and the estimated $1.86 billion in debt racked up over a decade. It's a lot of bread for a circus. The state's ballooning debt was the trigger for the Labor opposition's successful no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff which has put government on hold while the governor works out whether to grant the request for an early election or ask the parliament to seek an alternative leader. The no-confidence motion and its disruption to government risks the state missing the deadlines laid down in the licensing agreement with the AFL. Yet the Labor leader insists he will continue to support the stadium should he find himself at the helm. That's despite the stadium diktat imposed by the AFL being deeply unpopular across Tasmania, not least because no similar demands were made of other recent regional additions to the league. An assessment by the independent Tasmanian Planning Commission was damning. The roofed 23,000-seat structure, it said, was "disproportionate to Hobart's small scale and would be contrary to Hobart's visual values". An artist's impression of what it would look from the eastern shore of the Derwent is like a still from sci-fi movie, an alien mothership squatting under the snowy flanks of kunanyi, dwarfing the heritage buildings around it. No wonder Hobart hates the idea. What's irksome from my non-sporting mainland perspective is the power wielded by the AFL. To set such onerous conditions on a state that wants to field its own team in the national comp is bad enough. To have the federal government pitch in with a promise of millions is even worse. This is when the AFL is flush with cash from a $4.5 billion TV licensing deal with the Seven Network and Foxtel. To use the vernacular of the querulous Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie, if they want a stadium with a roof, they can bloody well pay for it. HAVE YOUR SAY: Has Big Sport become too powerful in Australia? Should mainland taxpayers help pay for the Tasmanian stadium? Do both major parties in Tasmania look foolish for backing the stadium despite the opposition to it? Email us: echidna@ SHARE THE LOVE: If you enjoy The Echidna, forward it to a friend so they can sign up, too. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: - The ABC has announced the end of the political panel program Q+A after 18 years on air. - Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has dismissed as "predictable" criticism of Australia's move to join four other countries in hitting two right-wing Israeli ministers with sanctions over West Bank settlements, as the opposition demands a briefing on the decision. - The number of industrial disputes has fallen to a two-year low, new figures reveal, despite major work outages affecting public transport commuters. THEY SAID IT: "The state government needs to go and tell the AFL where to stick it right now and tell them it's not going to play the game." - Senator Jacqui Lambie YOU SAID IT: The shooting of an Aussie reporter with a rubber bullet during the Los Angeles unrest reinforces the feeling the US is becoming an unsafe banana republic. "How long, I wonder, before we see a travel warning issued for the US?" asks Liz. "Calling it 'law and order' while pardoning actual insurrectionists is like burning down a fire station and calling it urban renewal," writes Mike. "The republic doesn't just smell like banana - it's practically slipping on the peel in front of the whole world." "I am a resident of Minnesota, a democratic state in the USA, and am appalled at the whole Trump situation over here, but especially when the Australian reporter was purposely shot with the rubber bullet," writes Carolyn. "I encourage people to stay away from my country for the foreseeable future which makes me sad because I have had wonderful visits from friends from your beautiful country." Allan, who lived in Los Angeles for six years in the 1980s, writes: "We've visited the USA numerous times since, but never again. Our initial concerns as we've grown older were with their health system, where serious illness could literally cost millions. Now the political situation is what worries us. I wouldn't rule out something akin to civil war the way things are escalating. But no, I don't think Albanese should raise the Tomasi shooting with Trump personally, it would achieve nothing and detract from other more important discussions." "Civil war was averted when Trump won the election," writes Arthur. "It now looks as though it was only a temporary reprieve." This is a sample of The Echidna newsletter sent out each weekday morning. To sign up for FREE, go to Imagine you open your letter box and there are four bills inside, one for each member of your family, including the two kids who are still at school. You open them and the amount each of you owe is $1247. That's roughly what each and every Tasmanian will be up for if the lower estimate of the cost of the contentious Macquarie Point stadium - $945 million - is accurate. This takes into account the federal pledge of $240 million, announced during a disastrous visit to the site by Anthony Albanese in April 2023, which saw him beating a hasty retreat as a crowd of hecklers descended on the event demanding that money be spent on desperately needed housing. The bill for Tasmanians will be even more if the higher estimate of $1.1 billion proves correct. Of course, there'll be no bill in the mail. The cost will be borne by what's not spent in other areas like health, education, infrastructure and affordable housing and the estimated $1.86 billion in debt racked up over a decade. It's a lot of bread for a circus. The state's ballooning debt was the trigger for the Labor opposition's successful no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff which has put government on hold while the governor works out whether to grant the request for an early election or ask the parliament to seek an alternative leader. The no-confidence motion and its disruption to government risks the state missing the deadlines laid down in the licensing agreement with the AFL. Yet the Labor leader insists he will continue to support the stadium should he find himself at the helm. That's despite the stadium diktat imposed by the AFL being deeply unpopular across Tasmania, not least because no similar demands were made of other recent regional additions to the league. An assessment by the independent Tasmanian Planning Commission was damning. The roofed 23,000-seat structure, it said, was "disproportionate to Hobart's small scale and would be contrary to Hobart's visual values". An artist's impression of what it would look from the eastern shore of the Derwent is like a still from sci-fi movie, an alien mothership squatting under the snowy flanks of kunanyi, dwarfing the heritage buildings around it. No wonder Hobart hates the idea. What's irksome from my non-sporting mainland perspective is the power wielded by the AFL. To set such onerous conditions on a state that wants to field its own team in the national comp is bad enough. To have the federal government pitch in with a promise of millions is even worse. This is when the AFL is flush with cash from a $4.5 billion TV licensing deal with the Seven Network and Foxtel. To use the vernacular of the querulous Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie, if they want a stadium with a roof, they can bloody well pay for it. HAVE YOUR SAY: Has Big Sport become too powerful in Australia? Should mainland taxpayers help pay for the Tasmanian stadium? Do both major parties in Tasmania look foolish for backing the stadium despite the opposition to it? Email us: echidna@ SHARE THE LOVE: If you enjoy The Echidna, forward it to a friend so they can sign up, too. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: - The ABC has announced the end of the political panel program Q+A after 18 years on air. - Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has dismissed as "predictable" criticism of Australia's move to join four other countries in hitting two right-wing Israeli ministers with sanctions over West Bank settlements, as the opposition demands a briefing on the decision. - The number of industrial disputes has fallen to a two-year low, new figures reveal, despite major work outages affecting public transport commuters. THEY SAID IT: "The state government needs to go and tell the AFL where to stick it right now and tell them it's not going to play the game." - Senator Jacqui Lambie YOU SAID IT: The shooting of an Aussie reporter with a rubber bullet during the Los Angeles unrest reinforces the feeling the US is becoming an unsafe banana republic. "How long, I wonder, before we see a travel warning issued for the US?" asks Liz. "Calling it 'law and order' while pardoning actual insurrectionists is like burning down a fire station and calling it urban renewal," writes Mike. "The republic doesn't just smell like banana - it's practically slipping on the peel in front of the whole world." "I am a resident of Minnesota, a democratic state in the USA, and am appalled at the whole Trump situation over here, but especially when the Australian reporter was purposely shot with the rubber bullet," writes Carolyn. "I encourage people to stay away from my country for the foreseeable future which makes me sad because I have had wonderful visits from friends from your beautiful country." Allan, who lived in Los Angeles for six years in the 1980s, writes: "We've visited the USA numerous times since, but never again. Our initial concerns as we've grown older were with their health system, where serious illness could literally cost millions. Now the political situation is what worries us. I wouldn't rule out something akin to civil war the way things are escalating. But no, I don't think Albanese should raise the Tomasi shooting with Trump personally, it would achieve nothing and detract from other more important discussions." "Civil war was averted when Trump won the election," writes Arthur. "It now looks as though it was only a temporary reprieve."