logo
It's unanimous: All the polls give Labor the election day edge

It's unanimous: All the polls give Labor the election day edge

The Age02-05-2025

Voters are leaning toward Labor in the final stage of the federal election after a steady shift in support over the past month, giving the government an average lead of 52.4 per cent in two-party terms in the last week's opinion polls.
The results suggest the Coalition has lost ground since the start of the formal campaign at the end of March and has slipped to an average of 47.6 per cent in two-party terms in the polls conducted over the past week.
But the findings across the major public polls also highlight the weakness in the primary vote support for both major parties, raising the prospect of surprise victories for minor parties and independents on election night.
With local factors shaping the contests across dozens of seats, the two-party results suggest Labor has an edge over the Coalition but cannot be assured of a majority in parliament.
The two-party polling average reflects findings from the Resolve Political Monitor – conducted by research company Resolve Strategic for this masthead – as well as results from Newspoll, Freshwater, Essential and others over the past week.
In a sign of the challenges for the Coalition, its polling average in two-party terms was 49 per cent over the past three weeks but has fallen to 47.6 per cent this week across the major polls.
Resolve director Jim Reed said the results across all major sources showed a gain for the government in each week of the campaign and confirmed the importance of key events such as Cyclone Alfred in March.
Reed said the government also gained ground after the federal budget on March 25 and after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Australia and other countries on April 2.
Loading
'Only one of those factors was within Labor's control, so they have been lucky as well as making their own luck,' he said.
'Building on the Reserve Bank's interest rate cut in February, the budget demonstrated a renewed focus and competence from the government.'
The major polls show a steadiness in the Labor primary vote and a more pronounced fall in the Coalition primary vote in the campaign, after speculation in recent days about a potential swing to Pauline Hanson's One Nation among conservative voters.
The Labor primary vote is 32.2 per cent on average in the major polls over the past week, while the Coalition primary is 33.9 per cent – lower than the average over recent weeks.
In a sign that voters are shifting away from the two major parties, the 'other' category has increased slightly. This includes Greens, independents, One Nation and Clive Palmer's Trumpet of Patriots.
Reed said the timing of the campaign, which was announced for May 3 because the cyclone made earlier dates too difficult, enabled Labor to throw a spotlight on Dutton.
'He started to look risky just at the time when US tariffs made voters more risk-averse,' he said.
The most recent Resolve Political Monitor found that Labor had a clear lead over the Coalition of 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms, but this came with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.
The same survey also confirmed the challenges for both major parties with their primary vote support, a key issue when Labor and the Coalition will be relying on preference flows from minor parties such as the Greens or One Nation.
The Labor primary vote remains weaker in the Resolve Political Monitor than it was at the last election, down from 32.6 per cent to 31 per cent. The Coalition primary vote was 35 per cent in the latest survey, compared to 35.7 per cent at the last election.
The Resolve survey asks voters to nominate their preferences as they would on a ballot paper, generating 'allocated' preferences to calculate the two-party result of 53 to 47 per cent nationwide. The result is the same when it is calculated by the preference flows seen at the last election.
'You should always look at any single poll's error margin when interpreting the results,' said Reed.
'So our result of 53 to 47 per cent could equal a Labor majority or minority government outcome.
'If multiple polls are all saying the same thing, that increases your confidence in the results because added together they have lower error margins, plus you can see that their different methodologies are showing a similar picture.
'Polls deal in likelihoods. Our poll is giving a high likelihood of a Labor majority or minority outcome, with very little chance of the Coalition winning a minority, let alone a majority.'
Australian National University senior lecturer Jill Sheppard said it was important to avoid interpreting all polling results as equally 'firm' or 'soft' when there was an element of uncertainty.
Loading
'We know that huge numbers of voters are disengaged at this election, and there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for putting yourself firmly in either the Liberal or Labor camps,' she said.
'I think what we're seeing with much of the recent polls is a return of soft Labor voters from 2022, who gave Dutton and the Liberals a hearing during 2024, but have slowly come back to preferring Labor in 2025.'
Dr Sheppard, a key researcher with the regular Australian Election Study, said the shift may not be a result of the campaign but a judgment about the Liberal vision and policy offering.
'Some voters who flirted with the party in 2024 could have been persuaded to stay until the election, but what we see instead is a small trickle – two or three percentage points – back to Labor.
'And we see a rise across the board for independents and minor party candidates.'
The trend across the major polls since the beginning of the year has shown an increase in the 'other' category that includes independents and minor parties, suggesting these candidates could make gains at the election.
What the national polls cannot show, however, is how a major party candidate may be toppled by a minor party or independent candidate who gains a strong primary vote that is much higher than the national result.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

'Options considered': state's snap election call on ice
'Options considered': state's snap election call on ice

The Advertiser

timean hour ago

  • The Advertiser

'Options considered': state's snap election call on ice

Tasmania faces days of political uncertainty with a request by the state's embattled premier for a snap poll being considered by the governor. Jeremy Rockliff made the drive to Government House on Tuesday evening to meet with Governor Barbara Baker, five days after he lost the confidence of the parliament. "Following their conversation, Her Excellency is now taking the time necessary to give due consideration to all available options," Government House official secretary David Hughes said. "By the end of the week the premier will meet with Her Excellency again. Further statements will be made in due course." Mr Rockliff has refused to resign after losing Thursday's vote of no-confidence, putting the state on a seemingly unavoidable collision course with an election. It is not clear whether Ms Baker will ask the Liberals to find a new leader and premier, which would remove the need for a poll. Former senator Eric Abetz, Deputy Premier Guy Barnett and ex-deputy Michael Ferguson are among Liberal leadership options. Labor, which has just 10 seats, has ruled out forming a minority government in alliance with the five-seat Greens plus members of the crossbench. Tasmania is staring down the barrel of its fourth election in seven years. The Liberals were returned to power in minority in March 2024 with 14 of 35 lower-house seats. "I respect the need for her excellency to take the appropriate time to consider important matters of state," Mr Rockliff said in a statement. "I remain committed to serving the people of Tasmania." The no-confidence motion was put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbench independent MPs. Labor said the motion against Mr Rockliff was necessary because of his financial "mismanagement" and poor handling of delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries. Labor was ready to contest an election, MP Josh Willie told parliament. His party would enter a campaign without veteran MP and Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, who announced on Tuesday she would not run again. Ms O'Byrne, elected to state parliament in 2006, criticised parliament's dysfunction. "If minority government is the way of the future then it requires us all to behave differently," she told parliament. "We have to have the maturity to not do things just because we can. The events of the last week have proven that." Election battle lines have already been drawn, with the Liberals dropping a plan to investigate public asset sales and announcing former federal MP Bridget Archer would run in Bass. Liberal MP Felix Ellis said the party was "united" behind Mr Rockliff. A plan for a $945 million stadium at Hobart's Macquarie Point, a condition of the Tasmania Devils entering the AFL in 2028, is likely to be a major issue for potential voters. The project is backed by the Liberals and Labor but the Greens and several crossbenchers are opposed. Recent opinion polling showed 60 per cent of Tasmanians were also against the development. Tasmania faces days of political uncertainty with a request by the state's embattled premier for a snap poll being considered by the governor. Jeremy Rockliff made the drive to Government House on Tuesday evening to meet with Governor Barbara Baker, five days after he lost the confidence of the parliament. "Following their conversation, Her Excellency is now taking the time necessary to give due consideration to all available options," Government House official secretary David Hughes said. "By the end of the week the premier will meet with Her Excellency again. Further statements will be made in due course." Mr Rockliff has refused to resign after losing Thursday's vote of no-confidence, putting the state on a seemingly unavoidable collision course with an election. It is not clear whether Ms Baker will ask the Liberals to find a new leader and premier, which would remove the need for a poll. Former senator Eric Abetz, Deputy Premier Guy Barnett and ex-deputy Michael Ferguson are among Liberal leadership options. Labor, which has just 10 seats, has ruled out forming a minority government in alliance with the five-seat Greens plus members of the crossbench. Tasmania is staring down the barrel of its fourth election in seven years. The Liberals were returned to power in minority in March 2024 with 14 of 35 lower-house seats. "I respect the need for her excellency to take the appropriate time to consider important matters of state," Mr Rockliff said in a statement. "I remain committed to serving the people of Tasmania." The no-confidence motion was put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbench independent MPs. Labor said the motion against Mr Rockliff was necessary because of his financial "mismanagement" and poor handling of delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries. Labor was ready to contest an election, MP Josh Willie told parliament. His party would enter a campaign without veteran MP and Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, who announced on Tuesday she would not run again. Ms O'Byrne, elected to state parliament in 2006, criticised parliament's dysfunction. "If minority government is the way of the future then it requires us all to behave differently," she told parliament. "We have to have the maturity to not do things just because we can. The events of the last week have proven that." Election battle lines have already been drawn, with the Liberals dropping a plan to investigate public asset sales and announcing former federal MP Bridget Archer would run in Bass. Liberal MP Felix Ellis said the party was "united" behind Mr Rockliff. A plan for a $945 million stadium at Hobart's Macquarie Point, a condition of the Tasmania Devils entering the AFL in 2028, is likely to be a major issue for potential voters. The project is backed by the Liberals and Labor but the Greens and several crossbenchers are opposed. Recent opinion polling showed 60 per cent of Tasmanians were also against the development. Tasmania faces days of political uncertainty with a request by the state's embattled premier for a snap poll being considered by the governor. Jeremy Rockliff made the drive to Government House on Tuesday evening to meet with Governor Barbara Baker, five days after he lost the confidence of the parliament. "Following their conversation, Her Excellency is now taking the time necessary to give due consideration to all available options," Government House official secretary David Hughes said. "By the end of the week the premier will meet with Her Excellency again. Further statements will be made in due course." Mr Rockliff has refused to resign after losing Thursday's vote of no-confidence, putting the state on a seemingly unavoidable collision course with an election. It is not clear whether Ms Baker will ask the Liberals to find a new leader and premier, which would remove the need for a poll. Former senator Eric Abetz, Deputy Premier Guy Barnett and ex-deputy Michael Ferguson are among Liberal leadership options. Labor, which has just 10 seats, has ruled out forming a minority government in alliance with the five-seat Greens plus members of the crossbench. Tasmania is staring down the barrel of its fourth election in seven years. The Liberals were returned to power in minority in March 2024 with 14 of 35 lower-house seats. "I respect the need for her excellency to take the appropriate time to consider important matters of state," Mr Rockliff said in a statement. "I remain committed to serving the people of Tasmania." The no-confidence motion was put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbench independent MPs. Labor said the motion against Mr Rockliff was necessary because of his financial "mismanagement" and poor handling of delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries. Labor was ready to contest an election, MP Josh Willie told parliament. His party would enter a campaign without veteran MP and Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, who announced on Tuesday she would not run again. Ms O'Byrne, elected to state parliament in 2006, criticised parliament's dysfunction. "If minority government is the way of the future then it requires us all to behave differently," she told parliament. "We have to have the maturity to not do things just because we can. The events of the last week have proven that." Election battle lines have already been drawn, with the Liberals dropping a plan to investigate public asset sales and announcing former federal MP Bridget Archer would run in Bass. Liberal MP Felix Ellis said the party was "united" behind Mr Rockliff. A plan for a $945 million stadium at Hobart's Macquarie Point, a condition of the Tasmania Devils entering the AFL in 2028, is likely to be a major issue for potential voters. The project is backed by the Liberals and Labor but the Greens and several crossbenchers are opposed. Recent opinion polling showed 60 per cent of Tasmanians were also against the development. Tasmania faces days of political uncertainty with a request by the state's embattled premier for a snap poll being considered by the governor. Jeremy Rockliff made the drive to Government House on Tuesday evening to meet with Governor Barbara Baker, five days after he lost the confidence of the parliament. "Following their conversation, Her Excellency is now taking the time necessary to give due consideration to all available options," Government House official secretary David Hughes said. "By the end of the week the premier will meet with Her Excellency again. Further statements will be made in due course." Mr Rockliff has refused to resign after losing Thursday's vote of no-confidence, putting the state on a seemingly unavoidable collision course with an election. It is not clear whether Ms Baker will ask the Liberals to find a new leader and premier, which would remove the need for a poll. Former senator Eric Abetz, Deputy Premier Guy Barnett and ex-deputy Michael Ferguson are among Liberal leadership options. Labor, which has just 10 seats, has ruled out forming a minority government in alliance with the five-seat Greens plus members of the crossbench. Tasmania is staring down the barrel of its fourth election in seven years. The Liberals were returned to power in minority in March 2024 with 14 of 35 lower-house seats. "I respect the need for her excellency to take the appropriate time to consider important matters of state," Mr Rockliff said in a statement. "I remain committed to serving the people of Tasmania." The no-confidence motion was put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbench independent MPs. Labor said the motion against Mr Rockliff was necessary because of his financial "mismanagement" and poor handling of delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries. Labor was ready to contest an election, MP Josh Willie told parliament. His party would enter a campaign without veteran MP and Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, who announced on Tuesday she would not run again. Ms O'Byrne, elected to state parliament in 2006, criticised parliament's dysfunction. "If minority government is the way of the future then it requires us all to behave differently," she told parliament. "We have to have the maturity to not do things just because we can. The events of the last week have proven that." Election battle lines have already been drawn, with the Liberals dropping a plan to investigate public asset sales and announcing former federal MP Bridget Archer would run in Bass. Liberal MP Felix Ellis said the party was "united" behind Mr Rockliff. A plan for a $945 million stadium at Hobart's Macquarie Point, a condition of the Tasmania Devils entering the AFL in 2028, is likely to be a major issue for potential voters. The project is backed by the Liberals and Labor but the Greens and several crossbenchers are opposed. Recent opinion polling showed 60 per cent of Tasmanians were also against the development.

Economic summit aims to firm up drooping productivity
Economic summit aims to firm up drooping productivity

The Advertiser

timean hour ago

  • The Advertiser

Economic summit aims to firm up drooping productivity

An economic summit on lifting lagging productivity rates can serve common interests for the business sector and unions, the prime minister says. Anthony Albanese has announced plans for a productivity roundtable in August in Canberra to shape the nation's economic growth. Experts have expressed concern about Australia's lagging rate of productivity, a key economic measure of efficiency and long-term driver of improved living standards. Despite criticism previous economic summits were too slanted towards unions, Mr Albanese said outcomes from the roundtable had not been decided. He called for a mature discussion from all parties, noting it was in everyone's interest for productivity to improve. "We're a Labor government, we support unions existing ... but we will always respect both the role of business and the role of unions," he told the National Press Club on Tuesday. "There are common interests ... you don't get union members unless you've got successful employers. "It's the private sector that drives an economy. What the public sector should do is facilitate private sector activity and private sector investment." The Productivity Commissioner's most recent report showed labour productivity fell 0.1 per cent in the December quarter and dropped 1.2 per cent in the past year. The Business Council of Australia says productivity growth over the past decade has been the lowest in 60 years. Council chief executive Bran Black welcomed the roundtable, saying "lifting business investment is essential to boosting productivity, lifting real wages, creating jobs and ensuring more opportunity for more Australians". "We will continue to be very clear about policies that the business community believes will be counterproductive to improving productivity," he said. Mr Albanese said he wanted a boost to productivity, alongside other economic indicators as part of his second-term agenda. "We want to build an economy where growth, wages and productivity rise together," he said. "The starting point for our government is clear. Our plan for economic growth and productivity is about Australians earning more and keeping more of what they earn." ACTU secretary Sally McManus said working Australians must be at the centre of the roundtable. "We need to leave behind the idea that productivity is equated with cutting pay and making people work harder for less," she said. "We have a common interest in addressing the challenges we face and when we work together our country is at its best." Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Andrew McKellar said boosting productivity was essential for economic growth. "The business community looks forward to participating in the summit and contributing constructive and sensible ideas to address the problem," he said. Shadow treasurer Ted O'Brien said the roundtable could amount to nothing but a talkfest. "Anthony Albanese has actively sought to undermine productivity by abolishing structures to drive it," he said. "He also saddled the economy with thousands of new regulations in the last parliament. "If this change of heart by Labor is true, it will be akin to turning around the Titanic." The prime minister announced Jenny Wilkinson would become the first female Treasury secretary. Ms Wilkinson, who heads the Department of Finance, will replace Steven Kennedy, who will become the nation's most senior public servant as head of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. They will begin their new roles on Monday for five-year terms. An economic summit on lifting lagging productivity rates can serve common interests for the business sector and unions, the prime minister says. Anthony Albanese has announced plans for a productivity roundtable in August in Canberra to shape the nation's economic growth. Experts have expressed concern about Australia's lagging rate of productivity, a key economic measure of efficiency and long-term driver of improved living standards. Despite criticism previous economic summits were too slanted towards unions, Mr Albanese said outcomes from the roundtable had not been decided. He called for a mature discussion from all parties, noting it was in everyone's interest for productivity to improve. "We're a Labor government, we support unions existing ... but we will always respect both the role of business and the role of unions," he told the National Press Club on Tuesday. "There are common interests ... you don't get union members unless you've got successful employers. "It's the private sector that drives an economy. What the public sector should do is facilitate private sector activity and private sector investment." The Productivity Commissioner's most recent report showed labour productivity fell 0.1 per cent in the December quarter and dropped 1.2 per cent in the past year. The Business Council of Australia says productivity growth over the past decade has been the lowest in 60 years. Council chief executive Bran Black welcomed the roundtable, saying "lifting business investment is essential to boosting productivity, lifting real wages, creating jobs and ensuring more opportunity for more Australians". "We will continue to be very clear about policies that the business community believes will be counterproductive to improving productivity," he said. Mr Albanese said he wanted a boost to productivity, alongside other economic indicators as part of his second-term agenda. "We want to build an economy where growth, wages and productivity rise together," he said. "The starting point for our government is clear. Our plan for economic growth and productivity is about Australians earning more and keeping more of what they earn." ACTU secretary Sally McManus said working Australians must be at the centre of the roundtable. "We need to leave behind the idea that productivity is equated with cutting pay and making people work harder for less," she said. "We have a common interest in addressing the challenges we face and when we work together our country is at its best." Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Andrew McKellar said boosting productivity was essential for economic growth. "The business community looks forward to participating in the summit and contributing constructive and sensible ideas to address the problem," he said. Shadow treasurer Ted O'Brien said the roundtable could amount to nothing but a talkfest. "Anthony Albanese has actively sought to undermine productivity by abolishing structures to drive it," he said. "He also saddled the economy with thousands of new regulations in the last parliament. "If this change of heart by Labor is true, it will be akin to turning around the Titanic." The prime minister announced Jenny Wilkinson would become the first female Treasury secretary. Ms Wilkinson, who heads the Department of Finance, will replace Steven Kennedy, who will become the nation's most senior public servant as head of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. They will begin their new roles on Monday for five-year terms. An economic summit on lifting lagging productivity rates can serve common interests for the business sector and unions, the prime minister says. Anthony Albanese has announced plans for a productivity roundtable in August in Canberra to shape the nation's economic growth. Experts have expressed concern about Australia's lagging rate of productivity, a key economic measure of efficiency and long-term driver of improved living standards. Despite criticism previous economic summits were too slanted towards unions, Mr Albanese said outcomes from the roundtable had not been decided. He called for a mature discussion from all parties, noting it was in everyone's interest for productivity to improve. "We're a Labor government, we support unions existing ... but we will always respect both the role of business and the role of unions," he told the National Press Club on Tuesday. "There are common interests ... you don't get union members unless you've got successful employers. "It's the private sector that drives an economy. What the public sector should do is facilitate private sector activity and private sector investment." The Productivity Commissioner's most recent report showed labour productivity fell 0.1 per cent in the December quarter and dropped 1.2 per cent in the past year. The Business Council of Australia says productivity growth over the past decade has been the lowest in 60 years. Council chief executive Bran Black welcomed the roundtable, saying "lifting business investment is essential to boosting productivity, lifting real wages, creating jobs and ensuring more opportunity for more Australians". "We will continue to be very clear about policies that the business community believes will be counterproductive to improving productivity," he said. Mr Albanese said he wanted a boost to productivity, alongside other economic indicators as part of his second-term agenda. "We want to build an economy where growth, wages and productivity rise together," he said. "The starting point for our government is clear. Our plan for economic growth and productivity is about Australians earning more and keeping more of what they earn." ACTU secretary Sally McManus said working Australians must be at the centre of the roundtable. "We need to leave behind the idea that productivity is equated with cutting pay and making people work harder for less," she said. "We have a common interest in addressing the challenges we face and when we work together our country is at its best." Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Andrew McKellar said boosting productivity was essential for economic growth. "The business community looks forward to participating in the summit and contributing constructive and sensible ideas to address the problem," he said. Shadow treasurer Ted O'Brien said the roundtable could amount to nothing but a talkfest. "Anthony Albanese has actively sought to undermine productivity by abolishing structures to drive it," he said. "He also saddled the economy with thousands of new regulations in the last parliament. "If this change of heart by Labor is true, it will be akin to turning around the Titanic." The prime minister announced Jenny Wilkinson would become the first female Treasury secretary. Ms Wilkinson, who heads the Department of Finance, will replace Steven Kennedy, who will become the nation's most senior public servant as head of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. They will begin their new roles on Monday for five-year terms. An economic summit on lifting lagging productivity rates can serve common interests for the business sector and unions, the prime minister says. Anthony Albanese has announced plans for a productivity roundtable in August in Canberra to shape the nation's economic growth. Experts have expressed concern about Australia's lagging rate of productivity, a key economic measure of efficiency and long-term driver of improved living standards. Despite criticism previous economic summits were too slanted towards unions, Mr Albanese said outcomes from the roundtable had not been decided. He called for a mature discussion from all parties, noting it was in everyone's interest for productivity to improve. "We're a Labor government, we support unions existing ... but we will always respect both the role of business and the role of unions," he told the National Press Club on Tuesday. "There are common interests ... you don't get union members unless you've got successful employers. "It's the private sector that drives an economy. What the public sector should do is facilitate private sector activity and private sector investment." The Productivity Commissioner's most recent report showed labour productivity fell 0.1 per cent in the December quarter and dropped 1.2 per cent in the past year. The Business Council of Australia says productivity growth over the past decade has been the lowest in 60 years. Council chief executive Bran Black welcomed the roundtable, saying "lifting business investment is essential to boosting productivity, lifting real wages, creating jobs and ensuring more opportunity for more Australians". "We will continue to be very clear about policies that the business community believes will be counterproductive to improving productivity," he said. Mr Albanese said he wanted a boost to productivity, alongside other economic indicators as part of his second-term agenda. "We want to build an economy where growth, wages and productivity rise together," he said. "The starting point for our government is clear. Our plan for economic growth and productivity is about Australians earning more and keeping more of what they earn." ACTU secretary Sally McManus said working Australians must be at the centre of the roundtable. "We need to leave behind the idea that productivity is equated with cutting pay and making people work harder for less," she said. "We have a common interest in addressing the challenges we face and when we work together our country is at its best." Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Andrew McKellar said boosting productivity was essential for economic growth. "The business community looks forward to participating in the summit and contributing constructive and sensible ideas to address the problem," he said. Shadow treasurer Ted O'Brien said the roundtable could amount to nothing but a talkfest. "Anthony Albanese has actively sought to undermine productivity by abolishing structures to drive it," he said. "He also saddled the economy with thousands of new regulations in the last parliament. "If this change of heart by Labor is true, it will be akin to turning around the Titanic." The prime minister announced Jenny Wilkinson would become the first female Treasury secretary. Ms Wilkinson, who heads the Department of Finance, will replace Steven Kennedy, who will become the nation's most senior public servant as head of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. They will begin their new roles on Monday for five-year terms.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store