It's unanimous: All the polls give Labor the election day edge

Sydney Morning Herald

02-05-2025

Voters are leaning toward Labor in the final stage of the federal election after a steady shift in support over the past month, giving the government an average lead of 52.4 per cent in two-party terms in the last week's opinion polls.
The results suggest the Coalition has lost ground since the start of the formal campaign at the end of March and has slipped to an average of 47.6 per cent in two-party terms in the polls conducted over the past week.
But the findings across the major public polls also highlight the weakness in the primary vote support for both major parties, raising the prospect of surprise victories for minor parties and independents on election night.
With local factors shaping the contests across dozens of seats, the two-party results suggest Labor has an edge over the Coalition but cannot be assured of a majority in parliament.
The two-party polling average reflects findings from the Resolve Political Monitor – conducted by research company Resolve Strategic for this masthead – as well as results from Newspoll, Freshwater, Essential and others over the past week.
In a sign of the challenges for the Coalition, its polling average in two-party terms was 49 per cent over the past three weeks but has fallen to 47.6 per cent this week across the major polls.
Resolve director Jim Reed said the results across all major sources showed a gain for the government in each week of the campaign and confirmed the importance of key events such as Cyclone Alfred in March.
Reed said the government also gained ground after the federal budget on March 25 and after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Australia and other countries on April 2.
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'Only one of those factors was within Labor's control, so they have been lucky as well as making their own luck,' he said.
'Building on the Reserve Bank's interest rate cut in February, the budget demonstrated a renewed focus and competence from the government.'
The major polls show a steadiness in the Labor primary vote and a more pronounced fall in the Coalition primary vote in the campaign, after speculation in recent days about a potential swing to Pauline Hanson's One Nation among conservative voters.
The Labor primary vote is 32.2 per cent on average in the major polls over the past week, while the Coalition primary is 33.9 per cent – lower than the average over recent weeks.
In a sign that voters are shifting away from the two major parties, the 'other' category has increased slightly. This includes Greens, independents, One Nation and Clive Palmer's Trumpet of Patriots.
Reed said the timing of the campaign, which was announced for May 3 because the cyclone made earlier dates too difficult, enabled Labor to throw a spotlight on Dutton.
'He started to look risky just at the time when US tariffs made voters more risk-averse,' he said.
The most recent Resolve Political Monitor found that Labor had a clear lead over the Coalition of 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms, but this came with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.
The same survey also confirmed the challenges for both major parties with their primary vote support, a key issue when Labor and the Coalition will be relying on preference flows from minor parties such as the Greens or One Nation.
The Labor primary vote remains weaker in the Resolve Political Monitor than it was at the last election, down from 32.6 per cent to 31 per cent. The Coalition primary vote was 35 per cent in the latest survey, compared to 35.7 per cent at the last election.
The Resolve survey asks voters to nominate their preferences as they would on a ballot paper, generating 'allocated' preferences to calculate the two-party result of 53 to 47 per cent nationwide. The result is the same when it is calculated by the preference flows seen at the last election.
'You should always look at any single poll's error margin when interpreting the results,' said Reed.
'So our result of 53 to 47 per cent could equal a Labor majority or minority government outcome.
'If multiple polls are all saying the same thing, that increases your confidence in the results because added together they have lower error margins, plus you can see that their different methodologies are showing a similar picture.
'Polls deal in likelihoods. Our poll is giving a high likelihood of a Labor majority or minority outcome, with very little chance of the Coalition winning a minority, let alone a majority.'
Australian National University senior lecturer Jill Sheppard said it was important to avoid interpreting all polling results as equally 'firm' or 'soft' when there was an element of uncertainty.
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'We know that huge numbers of voters are disengaged at this election, and there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for putting yourself firmly in either the Liberal or Labor camps,' she said.
'I think what we're seeing with much of the recent polls is a return of soft Labor voters from 2022, who gave Dutton and the Liberals a hearing during 2024, but have slowly come back to preferring Labor in 2025.'
Dr Sheppard, a key researcher with the regular Australian Election Study, said the shift may not be a result of the campaign but a judgment about the Liberal vision and policy offering.
'Some voters who flirted with the party in 2024 could have been persuaded to stay until the election, but what we see instead is a small trickle – two or three percentage points – back to Labor.
'And we see a rise across the board for independents and minor party candidates.'
The trend across the major polls since the beginning of the year has shown an increase in the 'other' category that includes independents and minor parties, suggesting these candidates could make gains at the election.
What the national polls cannot show, however, is how a major party candidate may be toppled by a minor party or independent candidate who gains a strong primary vote that is much higher than the national result.