3 days ago
By-election could be as seminal as my '88 win...due to SNP's decline, says the party's former deputy leader
A crunch by-election could become a 'seminal moment' in the decline of the SNP following a decade of failure, according to a former deputy leader of the party.
Jim Sillars said next week's vote in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse could give further evidence that working-class voters are turning their back on the SNP.
He also said the SNP's failings have created a 'vacuum' in Scottish politics which can play into the hands of Nigel Farage 's Reform UK.
But a leading pollster also yesterday said that a rise in support for Reform is likely to help the SNP in Thursday's by-election and in next year's Scottish Parliament election.
It comes as Labour told voters that they can help 'call time' on John Swinney 's party.
Mr Sillars said Reform is benefiting from the 'failure of the elite mainstream parties' and that 'ordinary working class people look at the SNP Government and say that have failed us'.
He said Reform is now capitalising on a 'vacuum' in Scottish politics which sees many voters unsure who to give their support to.
He also compared Thursday's vote to his 1988 victory in the Glasgow Govan by-election, when voters backed the insurgent SNP against a Labour Party which was the dominant force north of the border at the time.
Jim Sillars won the Glasgow Govan seat for the Scottish National Party in 1988
Mr Sillars said: 'Everyone in Scottish politics should watch Reform very closely.
'This could be another seminal by-election in Scottish politics, and that is due entirely to failure based on the mediocrity that has reigned in the SNP since Alex Salmond resigned.'
Mr Farage is due to visit Scotland on Monday as he steps up campaign ahead of Thursday's vote.
Ahead of the final weekend of campaigning, Mr Swinney yesterday claimed that the by-election is now a 'straight contest between the SNP and Nigel Farage'.
But leading pollster Mark Diffley said a rise in support for Reform will benefit the SNP in Hamilton and in next year's Holyrood elections.
He said: 'Whether at a one-off event in Hamilton or in 2026, the fact the SNP has lost support since 2021 is likely not to impact hugely on its chances because for the Unionist part of the country there is now a new party that fragments that side of the electorate even further. Whether in Hamilton or in a year's time, that helps the SNP.
'The SNP is polling around 36 per cent now, compared to 48 per cent (on the constituency vote) in 2021, so it has lost a quarter of its voters but, because of the electoral system and the fragmentation of the Unionist vote, it will still win the vast majority of constituencies even on 36 per cent.'
Labour is targeting pro-Union voters, former Labour supporters and those disgruntled with the SNP's failures in the final days of the campaign.
Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: 'Next week the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse will get a chance to call time on SNP failure and choose a new direction with Scottish Labour.
'We can see the consequences of SNP incompetence right across this community - people languishing on NHS waiting lists, high street shops struggling to stay open, and kids not getting the education they deserve.
'It's clear the SNP does not deserve to win this by-election and only Scottish Labour can beat them.
'Reform can't win here - this is a direct fight between Scottish Labour and the SNP, no matter how much Reform and the SNP want to pretend otherwise.'
Mr Swinney said: 'Labour have let people across Scotland down, and they have quite clearly given up on this by-election.
'Thursday's vote is now a straight contest between the SNP and Nigel Farage - and I am urging people to reject the ugly, divisive politics of Nigel Farage and to unite behind the SNP.'
