Latest news with #JingQian
West Australian
2 days ago
- Business
- West Australian
China's July 2025 economic growth slumps: Retail sales and industrial output below expectations
China's economy lost momentum in July, with growth faltering across the board, as weak domestic demand persisted and Beijing intensified efforts to curb excess capacity. Retail sales last month rose 3.7 per cent from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Friday, sharply missing analysts' estimates for a 4.6 per cent growth in a Reuters poll and slowing from June's 4.8 per cent growth. Industrial output rose 5.7 per cent from a year ago in July, its weakest level since November last year, according to LSEG data, and weaker than analysts' expectations for a 5.9 per cent rise. Fixed-asset investment in July expanded 1.6 percent for the year-to-date, undershooting economists' forecasts for a 2.7 per cent growth and slowing from 2.8 per cent in the first six months. Within that segment, the contraction in property investment worsened, slumping 12 per cent in the first seven months, government data showed. Separately, China's survey-based urban unemployment rate in July came in at 5.2 per cent, edging higher after remaining at 5 per cent in May and June. Unemployment rate for those aged between 16 and 24, excluding college students, however, has remained above 14 per cent for a year. The latest slowdown was expected, as major contributors to the outperformance in the first half of the year, such as government stimulus and pre-emptive trade, are fading out, said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit. China's economy expanded 5.3 percent in the first half of the year, on track to meet Beijing's growth target of 5 per cent. However, economists warned that risks of full-year growth undershooting its target remain, calling for fresh policy support in the second half of the year. Beijing and Washington on Monday announced that they would extend the tariff pause for another 90 days until mid-November, averting the steep tariffs and allowing more time for both sides to negotiate a durable deal. Despite the temporary truce, 'core disputes — from tech access and critical minerals to industrial policy and geopolitical alignments — remain unresolved,' said Jing Qian, co-founder and managing director of the Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Qian, who advised both governments during the ongoing negotiations, said the 'big political trade-offs' are being reserved for a potential summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in the coming months.
CNBC
2 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
China's growth stumbles in July as retail sales, industrial output miss forecasts
China's economy lost momentum in July, with growth faltering across the board, as weak domestic demand persisted and Beijing intensified efforts to curb excess capacity. Retail sales last month rose 3.7% from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Friday, sharply missing analysts' estimates for a 4.6% growth in a Reuters poll and slowing from June's 4.8% growth. Industrial output rose 5.7% from a year ago in July, its weakest level since November last year, according to LSEG data, and weaker than analysts' expectations for a 5.9% rise. Fixed-asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, expanded 1.6% this year as of July, undershooting economists' forecasts for a 2.7% growth and slowing from 2.8% in the first six months. Separately, China's survey-based urban unemployment rate in July came in at 5.2%, edging higher after remaining at 5% in May and June. Unemployment rate for those aged between 16 and 24, excluding college students, however, has remained above 14% for a year. Beijing and Washington on Monday announced that they would extend the tariff pause for another 90 days until mid-November, averting the steep tariffs and allowing more time for both sides to negotiate a durable deal. Despite the temporary truce, "core disputes — from tech access and critical minerals to industrial policy and geopolitical alignments — remain unresolved," said Jing Qian, co-founder and managing director of the Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Qian, who advised both governments during the ongoing negotiations, said the "big political trade-offs" are being reserved for a potential summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in the coming months.
South China Morning Post
10-02-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Lung cancer in never-smokers, right-sizing China economy: SCMP daily highlights
Published: 9:00pm, 10 Feb 2025 Catch up on some of SCMP's biggest China and economy stories of the day. If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing . Despite drops in tobacco use worldwide, the incidence of lung cancer among people who have never smoked is increasing, with higher risks for younger generations and women – particularly in China – a global analysis led by the World Health Organization has found. 2. China has met most of its 5-year goals. It hasn't done so well on emissions China met most of its targets under the current 14th Five-Year Plan to 2025 but has fallen short on energy efficiency and emission goals, according to Tsinghua University researchers. 3. Scholar Jing Qian on right-sizing China's economy in the age of Trump Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen The researcher surveys the dividends of 'Made in China 2025' and shares why he thinks Trump's contradictions could benefit bilateral relations.
South China Morning Post
10-02-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Scholar Jing Qian on right-sizing China's economy in the age of Trump and DeepSeek
Jing Qian is a co-founder and managing director of the Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute, and a co-founder of Cure4Cancer and the Bloomberg International Cancer Coalition. He also served as a senior adviser to Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia, for almost a decade. His research focuses on China's elite politics and its impact on domestic and foreign policy, particularly US-China relations. Advertisement In this interview, Qian explores the structural challenges constraining China's economic growth, examines the state of US-China trade and technological competition and identifies potential areas for collaboration. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here What should we be watching for in 2025 to determine the course of the world's second-largest economy? China's economic trajectory in 2025 will be shaped by its ability to navigate the delicate balance between structural reforms and immediate economic pressures. The most pressing factors to watch will be Beijing's domestic economic policies, private sector confidence, fiscal strategies, and its execution of long-term structural reform plans. The Chinese government faces a crucial decision: will it introduce meaningful policies to support private businesses and restore business confidence, or will statist approaches remain dominant? The response will determine whether the country can revive its entrepreneurial ecosystem and encourage investment. Advertisement Another key question is how Beijing addresses local government debt, a growing burden that threatens fiscal stability. Without significant restructuring, many local governments will struggle to sustain infrastructure spending and social services. Additionally, the extent of fiscal stimulus Beijing is willing to implement – whether in the form of direct support for households or increased local government spending – will be crucial in determining the strength of the recovery. At the core of these efforts lies consumer confidence, which remains weak due to economic uncertainty, sluggish wage growth and a struggling property market. Whether home prices stabilise or continue their decline will shape household spending behaviour, influencing broader economic momentum.
South China Morning Post
10-02-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Scholar Jing Qian on right-sizing China's economy in the age of Trump
Jing Qian is a co-founder and managing director of the Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute, and a co-founder of Cure4Cancer and the Bloomberg International Cancer Coalition. He also served as a senior adviser to Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia, for almost a decade. His research focuses on China's elite politics and its impact on domestic and foreign policy, particularly US-China relations. In this interview, Qian explores the structural challenges constraining China's economic growth, examines the state of US-China trade and technological competition and identifies potential areas for collaboration. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here . What should we be watching for in 2025 to determine the course of the world's second-largest economy? China's economic trajectory in 2025 will be shaped by its ability to navigate the delicate balance between structural reforms and immediate economic pressures. The most pressing factors to watch will be Beijing's domestic economic policies, private sector confidence, fiscal strategies, and its execution of long-term structural reform plans. The Chinese government faces a crucial decision: will it introduce meaningful policies to support private businesses and restore business confidence, or will statist approaches remain dominant? The response will determine whether the country can revive its entrepreneurial ecosystem and encourage investment. Another key question is how Beijing addresses local government debt, a growing burden that threatens fiscal stability. Without significant restructuring, many local governments will struggle to sustain infrastructure spending and social services. Additionally, the extent of fiscal stimulus Beijing is willing to implement – whether in the form of direct support for households or increased local government spending – will be crucial in determining the strength of the recovery. At the core of these efforts lies consumer confidence, which remains weak due to economic uncertainty, sluggish wage growth and a struggling property market. Whether home prices stabilise or continue their decline will shape household spending behaviour, influencing broader economic momentum.
