China's growth stumbles in July as retail sales, industrial output miss forecasts
Retail sales last month rose 3.7% from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Friday, sharply missing analysts' estimates for a 4.6% growth in a Reuters poll and slowing from June's 4.8% growth.
Industrial output rose 5.7% from a year ago in July, its weakest level since November last year, according to LSEG data, and weaker than analysts' expectations for a 5.9% rise.
Fixed-asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, expanded 1.6% this year as of July, undershooting economists' forecasts for a 2.7% growth and slowing from 2.8% in the first six months.
Separately, China's survey-based urban unemployment rate in July came in at 5.2%, edging higher after remaining at 5% in May and June. Unemployment rate for those aged between 16 and 24, excluding college students, however, has remained above 14% for a year.
Beijing and Washington on Monday announced that they would extend the tariff pause for another 90 days until mid-November, averting the steep tariffs and allowing more time for both sides to negotiate a durable deal.
Despite the temporary truce, "core disputes — from tech access and critical minerals to industrial policy and geopolitical alignments — remain unresolved," said Jing Qian, co-founder and managing director of the Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Qian, who advised both governments during the ongoing negotiations, said the "big political trade-offs" are being reserved for a potential summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in the coming months.
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