Latest news with #JoblessClaims
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Reports of Waller as New Fed Chair Seen as Dollar-Supportive
The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday rose by +0.23%. The dollar recovered from a 1.5-week low today and turned higher on reports that President Trump was seen as favoring Fed Governor Waller to be the new Fed Chair. The appointment of Waller as Fed Chair would ease market concerns about the Fed Chair being a yes man for President Trump, as Waller said back in April that the Fed's independence is "critical to the well-functioning of the US economy." Higher T-note yields on Thursday also supported the dollar. The dollar initially moved lower Thursday on a larger-than-expected increase in weekly US jobless claims, a dovish factor for Fed policy. Also, dovish comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly weighed on the dollar when she said it may be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates in the "coming months." More News from Barchart Have Metals Gone Softs? Dollar Falls on Dovish Fed Comments Dollar Weakens on Dovish Fed Comments Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. Also, questions about the Fed's credibility continue to weigh on the dollar after Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned last Friday, which could prompt President Trump to nominate a new governor who is more dovish and could undermine Fed Chair Powell's influence. US weekly initial unemployment claims rose +7,000 to 226,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 222,000. Weekly continuing claims rose +38,000 to a 3.75-year high of 1.974 million, higher than expectations of 1.950 million and a sign that unemployed people are taking longer to secure new employment. US Q2 nonfarm productivity rose +2.4%, higher than expectations of +2.0%. Q2 unit labor costs rose +1.6%, slightly stronger than expectations of +1.5%. US Jun consumer credit rose by +$7.371 billion, slightly below expectations of +$7.500 billion. Late Wednesday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said, "The labor market has softened, and I would see additional slowing as unwelcome. All this means that the Fed will likely need to adjust monetary policy in the coming months." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he only sees one 25 bp rate cut by the Fed this year, as there are reasons to be skeptical that the inflationary effects from tariffs will be temporary. In recent tariff news, President Trump announced Wednesday that he will impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports. Still, companies would be eligible for exemptions if they demonstrate a commitment to building their products in the US. However, the US will levy a separate tax on imports of electronic products that employ semiconductors. Also, President Trump announced Wednesday that he will double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the current 25% tariff, due to India's purchases of Russian oil. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump said that US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports would be announced "within the next week or so." Last Thursday, President Trump raised tariffs on some Canadian goods to 35% from 25% and announced a 10% global minimum, along with tariffs of 15% or higher for countries with trade surpluses with the US, effective today. According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 91% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and 64% at the following meeting on October 28-29. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Thursday fell by -0.31%. The euro retreated from a 1.5-week high Thursday and moved lower on weaker-than-expected news on German industrial production. Also, the dollar's strength on Thursday weighed on the euro. In addition, the euro is struggling due to concerns that President Trump's tariff policies will curb economic growth in the Eurozone. The euro initially moved higher Thursday on hopes for an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war, with President Trump expected to meet with Russian President Putin in the next few days to discuss an end to the conflict. Also, Thursday's stronger-than-expected German trade news is supportive of the euro. German June industrial production fell by -1.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and the largest decline in 11 months. German trade news was better than expected as German June exports rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m. Also, June imports rose +4.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m and the largest increase in 5 months. Swaps are pricing in a 12% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Thursday rose by +0.09%. The yen moved slightly lower against the dollar Thursday after Japan's Cabinet Office cut its Japanese 2025 GDP estimate. Also, concerns that US tariff policies will harm the Japanese economy are weighing on the yen. In addition, higher T-note yields on Thursday undercut the yen. Losses in the yen were limited after Japan's June leading index CI rose more than expected. The Japan June leading index CI rose +1.3 to 106.1, stronger than expectations of 106.0 Japan's Cabinet Office cut its Japanese 2025 GDP estimate to 0.7% from a January estimate of 1.2% and raised its CPI estimate to 2.4% from 2.0%. December gold (GCZ25) on Thursday closed up +20.30 (+0.59%), and September silver (SIU25) closed up +0.392 (+1.03%). Precious metals on Thursday settled higher, with gold posting a 2-week high and silver posting a 1.5-week high. Thursday's US weekly jobless claims report showed weakness in the US labor market, which is dovish for Fed policy and a bullish factor for precious metals. Also, dovish comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly were supportive of the demand for precious metals as a store of value when she said it may be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates in the "coming months." Gold buying by China's central bank is also supportive of gold prices as the PBOC bought 60,000 troy ounces of gold for its reserves in July, the ninth consecutive month it has boosted its gold purchases. Finally, Thursday's action by the BOE to cut its official bank rate by -25 bp was supportive of precious metals. Gains in precious metals prices were limited due to the strength of the dollar. Also, an easing of geopolitical risks has curbed some safe-haven demand for precious metals on news that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in the next few days to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Precious metals still have safe-haven support on concerns that President Trump's tariff policies will weigh on global economic growth prospects. Finally, precious metals continue to receive safe-haven support from geopolitical risks, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
Globe and Mail
17-07-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Retail Sales Increased More Than Expected
The biggest day of the week for economic reports and Q2 earnings is upon us. In fact, there is so much data in front of us, we should be able to fill this column with just the numbers. Pre-market futures were mixed but are now positive across the board: +30 points on the Dow, +10 on the S&P 500 and +70 points on the Nasdaq. Bond yields continue to creep up: +4.49% on the 10-year, +3.94% on the 2-year and +5.04% on the 30-year yield. A Cavalcade of Economic Results: Jobless Claims Healthy Starting as we do most Thursday mornings, Initial Jobless Claims are out: down for the fifth week in a row from near-term highs, 221K new jobless claims are the lowest we've seen since mid-April, far below the 234K estimate and well off the June high of 250K. What looked on the graph to be a steady incline of new jobless claims through the first half of the year has now shifted downward in a big way. This is very strong news for the labor market. Continuing Claims, on the other hand, ticked up slightly once again: 1.956 million, from 1.954 million the prior week (these numbers are reported a week in arrears from Initial Claims), remaining just shy of the psychological 2 million mark, where we haven't been since late 2021. This is the eighth straight week above 1.9 million longer-term jobless claims, and the 9th of the last 12. Yet with new claims pitching downward as they are, perhaps we'll postpone this reunion with 2 million claims for a longer time. Retail Sales Robust for June Advanced Retail Sales for June ('advanced,' meaning subject to revision in a couple weeks) tripled expectations this morning to +0.6%, turning around in a startling manner from -0.9% reported for May. This is the second-highest Retail Sales print of 2025 since March posted +1.5%; in fact, these are the only two positive months of the year so far. Beneath the headline, everything came in ahead of expectations, as well: ex-Autos reached +0.5%, ex-Autos & Gasoline +0.6%, and the Control number — which gets fed up the food chain of economic data such as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the (current) Fed's preferred metric on inflation — is +0.5%. This equals March's +0.5% Control number, as well. Import & Export Prices Moderate More good news: Import Prices came in lower than expected: +0.1%, but up from a big downward revision of -0.4% of the previous month. Ex-petrol (fuel), this number moderates further, to 0.0%. Year-over-year Import Prices have now swung to a negative -0.2% from an anticipated +0.3%. More easing on imported goods — counter to expectations. Export Prices month over month came in at +0.5%, the highest level since pre-tariff pull-forwards in February, whereas year over year we're at the highest level since January: +2.8%. Any time we can see import prices moderate but exports improve, that's got to be a good (near-term) sign for the domestic economy. Philly Fed Blossoms to Start the Summer Another metric posting its first positive month since March, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, sprung ahead to 15.9 in June, up strongly from the -4 posted for May. In fact, this is the highest print since February's 18.0, and provides a positive narrative for regional manufacturing in the region of the sixth-largest city in the U.S. GE Outpaces Estimates in Q2 Earnings GE Aerospace (GE), a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated stock going into this morning's earnings report, soundly beat Q2 estimates on both top and bottom lines this morning: earnings of $1.66 per share was well ahead of the projected $1.43 and the $1.20 per share reported in the year-ago quarter, for a positive surprise of +16%. Revenues of $10.15 billion beat estimates by +5.12%. Shares are up +1.3% at this hour, now a whopping +60% year to date. Zacks' Research Chief Picks Stock Most Likely to "At Least Double" Our experts have revealed their Top 5 recommendations with money-doubling potential – and Director of Research Sheraz Mian believes one is superior to the others. Of course, all our picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier recommendations like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%. See Our Top Stock to Double (Plus 4 Runners Up) >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report GE Aerospace (GE): Free Stock Analysis Report
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Business Standard
10-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Rupee extends gains to third day amid Trump tariffs; opens at 85.62/$
The Indian Rupee extended its advance for the third day amid US President Donald Trump's tariff demand letters to additional countries. The domestic currency opened 6 paise higher at 85.62 against the dollar on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. The rupee has depreciated by 0.15 per cent against the greenback in the current financial year, and has witnessed 0.03 per cent depreciation in the current calendar year. The currency rose on Wednesday despite a decline in the stock markets, supported by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turning buyers of equities and sellers of dollars, according to Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. On Wednesday, Brazil was hit with a 50 per cent levy, while Trump imposed a 30 per cent tariff on Algeria, Libya, and Iraq. Sri Lanka was hit with 25 per cent duties. Trump also said the US would begin levying a 50 per cent tariff on copper imports from August 1. Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes signalled that tariff-driven inflation may not derail rate cuts. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.19 per cent at 97.37. Vigilance is warranted as the US Dollar Index strengthens and long-term US and Japanese bond yields surge, potentially sparking risk-off sentiment in global markets, according to Anindya Banerjee, head of currency and commodity, Kotak Securities. "We anticipate dollar-rupee to trade within an 85.50–86.50 range on the spot market, with an upward bias." Investors eye the US Jobless Claims data and Japan's Producer Price Inflation data. In commodities, crude oil prices fell as President Trump's tariff measures weighed on the global economic growth outlook and oil demand. Brent crude price was down 0.03 per cent at $70.17 per barrel, while WTI crude prices were lower by 0.12 per cent at 68.30, as of 9:15 AM IST.
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Homebuilding Down, Jobless Claims Up; Fed News Later
Wednesday, June 18, 2025Pre-market futures are holding onto early morning gains, but are lower than they were before this morning's economic data began hitting the tape. Dow futures are now +10 points, the S&P 500 is +5 and the Nasdaq +30 points. These are down from 40, 10 and 50 points, we prepare to honor our Juneteenth holiday Thursday with closed banks and stock markets, we see Weekly Jobless Claims pulled a day earlier to this morning. Initial Jobless Claims came in-line with expectations at 245K, 5000 lower than the upwardly revised 250K the prior week, which is the highest level since a one-week blip of 259K back in October of last trailing four-week average in new claims is now 245K — again, directly in-line with today's result and its expectation. The previous four weeks averaged just over 231K, so we can see these numbers creeping up. This has been anticipated by analysts ever since big layoffs at corporations and the federal government began during the first quarter of Claims, reported a week in arrears from initial claims, came in at 1.945 million for two weeks ago. This makes the fourth-straight week longer-term jobless claims have notched above 1.9 million. (There is nothing inherently meaningful in 1.9 million continuing claims other than its proximity to 2 million, by the way.) U.S. Housing Starts for May posted its lowest tally since May 2020 — the heart of the Covid pandemic: 1.256 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units fell nearly -10% month over month from the upwardly revised 1.392 million for April, and far lower than the 1.35 million analysts had anticipated. Building Permits were also below expectations, reaching 1.393 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units in May from 1.42 million estimated (which was the upward revision to the prior month). This again is the lowest print in five years, and demonstrates a cooling housing market continuing to find its way through the current high-mortgage-rate homes were flat month over month, -7% year over year. Multi-family took a -30% hit month over month, off a record number of new builds over the past few years. Permits for multi-family were +13% year over year. The housing market sees strong demand for rentals continuing, which should keep multi-family projects in the lead over single-family. We expect this to continue until mortgage rates start to come down meaningfully. The 'big news' today will be the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell following. There won't be any rate cut today, but we do expect a new 'dot plot' from the Fed, which will tip their hand regarding how many rate cuts the FOMC currently expects to deliver this year, and when they might will be the fourth of eight total FOMC meetings this year: the next will be July, but as per tradition, the Fed will skip August. Odds for a September cut are notably higher, although this might be a matter of economists pushing out their hockey sticks a bit. (You'll recall earlier this year that this June meeting was the latest analysts had expected a first rate cut to occur. But a resilient economy combined with a murky tariff outlook have kept those rate cuts at bay.)Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Jobless Claims Tick in Per Expectations
Pre-market futures are holding onto early morning gains, but are lower than they were before this morning's economic data began hitting the tape. Dow futures are now +10 points, the S&P 500 is +5 and the Nasdaq +30 points. These are down from 40, 10 and 50 points, respectively. As we prepare to honor our Juneteenth holiday Thursday with closed banks and stock markets, we see Weekly Jobless Claims pulled a day earlier to this morning. Initial Jobless Claims came in-line with expectations at 245K, 5000 lower than the upwardly revised 250K the prior week, which is the highest level since a one-week blip of 259K back in October of last year. The trailing four-week average in new claims is now 245K — again, directly in-line with today's result and its expectation. The previous four weeks averaged just over 231K, so we can see these numbers creeping up. This has been anticipated by analysts ever since big layoffs at corporations and the federal government began during the first quarter of 2025. Continuing Claims, reported a week in arrears from initial claims, came in at 1.945 million for two weeks ago. This makes the fourth-straight week longer-term jobless claims have notched above 1.9 million. (There is nothing inherently meaningful in 1.9 million continuing claims other than its proximity to 2 million, by the way.) U.S. Housing Starts for May posted its lowest tally since May 2020 — the heart of the Covid pandemic: 1.256 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units fell nearly -10% month over month from the upwardly revised 1.392 million for April, and far lower than the 1.35 million analysts had anticipated. Building Permits were also below expectations, reaching 1.393 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units in May from 1.42 million estimated (which was the upward revision to the prior month). This again is the lowest print in five years, and demonstrates a cooling housing market continuing to find its way through the current high-mortgage-rate economy. Single-family homes were flat month over month, -7% year over year. Multi-family took a -30% hit month over month, off a record number of new builds over the past few years. Permits for multi-family were +13% year over year. The housing market sees strong demand for rentals continuing, which should keep multi-family projects in the lead over single-family. We expect this to continue until mortgage rates start to come down meaningfully. The 'big news' today will be the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell following. There won't be any rate cut today, but we do expect a new 'dot plot' from the Fed, which will tip their hand regarding how many rate cuts the FOMC currently expects to deliver this year, and when they might start. This will be the fourth of eight total FOMC meetings this year: the next will be July, but as per tradition, the Fed will skip August. Odds for a September cut are notably higher, although this might be a matter of economists pushing out their hockey sticks a bit. (You'll recall earlier this year that this June meeting was the latest analysts had expected a first rate cut to occur. But a resilient economy combined with a murky tariff outlook have kept those rate cuts at bay.) Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
