Retail Sales Increased More Than Expected
A Cavalcade of Economic Results: Jobless Claims Healthy
Starting as we do most Thursday mornings, Initial Jobless Claims are out: down for the fifth week in a row from near-term highs, 221K new jobless claims are the lowest we've seen since mid-April, far below the 234K estimate and well off the June high of 250K. What looked on the graph to be a steady incline of new jobless claims through the first half of the year has now shifted downward in a big way. This is very strong news for the labor market.
Continuing Claims, on the other hand, ticked up slightly once again: 1.956 million, from 1.954 million the prior week (these numbers are reported a week in arrears from Initial Claims), remaining just shy of the psychological 2 million mark, where we haven't been since late 2021. This is the eighth straight week above 1.9 million longer-term jobless claims, and the 9th of the last 12. Yet with new claims pitching downward as they are, perhaps we'll postpone this reunion with 2 million claims for a longer time.
Retail Sales Robust for June
Advanced Retail Sales for June ('advanced,' meaning subject to revision in a couple weeks) tripled expectations this morning to +0.6%, turning around in a startling manner from -0.9% reported for May. This is the second-highest Retail Sales print of 2025 since March posted +1.5%; in fact, these are the only two positive months of the year so far.
Beneath the headline, everything came in ahead of expectations, as well: ex-Autos reached +0.5%, ex-Autos & Gasoline +0.6%, and the Control number — which gets fed up the food chain of economic data such as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the (current) Fed's preferred metric on inflation — is +0.5%. This equals March's +0.5% Control number, as well.
Import & Export Prices Moderate
More good news: Import Prices came in lower than expected: +0.1%, but up from a big downward revision of -0.4% of the previous month. Ex-petrol (fuel), this number moderates further, to 0.0%. Year-over-year Import Prices have now swung to a negative -0.2% from an anticipated +0.3%. More easing on imported goods — counter to expectations.
Export Prices month over month came in at +0.5%, the highest level since pre-tariff pull-forwards in February, whereas year over year we're at the highest level since January: +2.8%. Any time we can see import prices moderate but exports improve, that's got to be a good (near-term) sign for the domestic economy.
Philly Fed Blossoms to Start the Summer
Another metric posting its first positive month since March, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, sprung ahead to 15.9 in June, up strongly from the -4 posted for May. In fact, this is the highest print since February's 18.0, and provides a positive narrative for regional manufacturing in the region of the sixth-largest city in the U.S.
GE Outpaces Estimates in Q2 Earnings
GE Aerospace (GE), a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated stock going into this morning's earnings report, soundly beat Q2 estimates on both top and bottom lines this morning: earnings of $1.66 per share was well ahead of the projected $1.43 and the $1.20 per share reported in the year-ago quarter, for a positive surprise of +16%. Revenues of $10.15 billion beat estimates by +5.12%. Shares are up +1.3% at this hour, now a whopping +60% year to date.
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Statements that are not historical are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements relate to future events or our future performance or future financial condition. These forward-looking statements are not historical facts, but rather are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about our company, our industry, our beliefs and our assumptions. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding our or our management team's expectations, hopes, beliefs, intentions or strategies regarding the future, including for the products we may launch and the success those products may have in the marketplace. In addition, any statements that refer to projections, forecasts or other characterizations of future events or circumstances, including any underlying assumptions, are forward-looking statements. 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