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Iran strike: Another fuel crisis looming?
Iran strike: Another fuel crisis looming?

The Citizen

time23-06-2025

  • Business
  • The Citizen

Iran strike: Another fuel crisis looming?

Sharp curbs on exports reminiscent of 1973 may follow. Participants shout slogans during an anti-war demonstration in Boston, Massachusetts, on 22 June 2025, protesting US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Picture: Joseph Prezioso / AFP Will the history of just over 50 years ago repeat itself in the form of another Middle East oil boycott or shortage, following the US intervention in the war between Israel and Iran? That's the question consumers – and especially motorists – as well as experts are pondering in the wake of the weekend air strikes by American bombers of Iran's nuclear facilities. In 1973, the Arab-Israeli war saw the Arab-dominated Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries putting in place sharp curbs on exports. This not only forced a massive rise in fuel prices, but saw many countries in the West hit by sudden fuel shortages. Drastic steps taken in SA during fuel shortage In South Africa, the government took drastic steps, including lowering the national speed limit from 120km/h to 80km/h and banning fuel sales after hours and over weekends. The trauma of that fuel shortage led directly to the then National Party government establishing a Strategic Fuel Reserve for the country. ALSO READ: Did the US strikes succeed, and how will Iran respond? Economist Dawie Roodt said SA can expect some more clarity on what exactly to expect in the days to come. 'We will have to wait and see,' he said, adding it might affect petrol prices and inflation rate and weaken the rand. 'This could be quite a thing for South Africa. It just depends on how long it goes on and how serious it is,' he said. Senior political lecturer at North-West University Dr Benjamin Rapanyane said conflicts like this one have a way of disrupting international peace and the flow of trade. 'The worst-case scenario would be the disruptions of shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. This may have a devastating impact on Africa in general and South Africa in particular,' he said. ALSO READ: US joins Israel-Iran conflict with overnight bombing campaign Political analyst Piet Croucamp said it could mean nothing or something. 'Nothing in the sense of let's stay out of it, which is hardly possible given the court case SA has against Israel,' he said. 'There's a universal condemnation of Israel for what they have been doing in Gaza and also the attack on Iran, which is against the United Nations resolutions.' Croucamp said it might be hard for SA to stay out of it. 'So many people around the world are concerned about the consequences of what is being done to Iran, but we are also concerned about Gaza,' he said. 'We dare not shut up. We have to say something. Not from a moral high ground because we cannot afford that, too, but it doesn't mean that we don't get to say something.' ALSO READ: What Israel–Iran conflict means for South African economy Political analyst Roland Henwood said there were no immediate implications. 'Indirectly, it will depend on how the situation develops. Politically, the reaction from SA, Brics and other international organisations and governments will be important to follow,' he said. 'If SA reacts very strongly against America and in favour of Iran, it may have negative political consequences. Other outcomes will include the effects of increased oil prices.' Henwood said this may have short-term or long-term implications for the country. 'So far, the reactions from the rest of the world have been rather muted. We will have to see how this situation develops,' he added.

Why humanity's 'greatest ally against climate change' may be about to switch sides
Why humanity's 'greatest ally against climate change' may be about to switch sides

Scotsman

time29-04-2025

  • Science
  • Scotsman

Why humanity's 'greatest ally against climate change' may be about to switch sides

Sign up to our daily newsletter – Regular news stories and round-ups from around Scotland direct to your inbox Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... The oceans have been described as our 'greatest ally against climate change', and for a very good reason: they have been soaking up a staggering 90 per cent of the heat generated by our carbon emissions, damping down the consequences of our folly. So while the most noticeable signs of climate change – like out-of-season wildfires, devastating floods and deadly heatwaves – are all on land, there is clearly a lot going on beneath the waves that most of us do not see. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad The rise in sea levels – fuelled by melting ice sheets and expansion as the water warms – is the most obvious one to humans, particularly those who inhabit low-lying Pacific Islands and places like Indonesia's capital Jakarta, which has the misfortune of being on the coast, low-lying and the fastest-sinking city in the world. There are other serious concerns, such as the acidification caused by extra carbon in the water, a threat to shellfish and coral reefs, and the disruption of ocean currents that have a huge influence on our climate. Global warming is affecting the oceans as well as the land and the consequences for humanity could be just as profound (Picture: Joseph Prezioso) | AFP via Getty Images A sudden depature from the norm Sea surface temperatures tell a similar story to those on land – they are rising – and this is documented in near-real time by the Copernicus Climate Change Service. So on Sunday, the average global ocean temperature, between 60 degrees north to 60 degrees south, was 20.88 degrees Celsius, which, for someone who has occasionally dipped a timid toe into the North Sea, sounds lovely. Until recently, every year, the average temperature would peak in about March or April, as the southern hemisphere neared the end of its summer, then fall back, with a second, smaller peak towards the end of the north's summer. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad However, in May 2023, something strange happened. After a brief dip, temperatures plateaued when they should have been falling and then rose dramatically to set a new record high temperature in August, the wrong time of year. If the graph had been data from a machine, you might think that, after a long build-up, something had snapped. Part of the explanation is that the world was experiencing the natural 'El Nino' weather phenomenon, which has a warming effect. However this is a regular event and previous iterations did not result in temperatures breaking free from the usual, seasonal pattern. Watch a live climate event unfold Fortunately, this pattern returned last year, although temperatures have remained at a higher level than before 2023. The mercury had been fairly steadily rising, but the Copernicus graph showing sea surface temperature anomalies has a pronounced warm spike from 2023 onwards. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad In an interview, Dr Samantha Burgess, Copernicus Climate Service's deputy director, told me: 'We've seen, in the last two years, a stronger departure from average [temperatures]. We've not seen that type of signal before, that strength of signal, and scientists are still trying to understand why we saw such a departure with an El Nino event that wasn't particularly strong.' Over the next few weeks, we will discover whether or not there will be another abrupt departure from the historic pattern and we can all watch it play out on the near-live Copernicus graph. The service also has a graph for air temperatures and an interactive globe that allows you to see which parts were hotter or cooler than normal on a given day all over the world. Tipping points To me, the strange and record-breaking sea surface temperatures of 2023, which were surpassed in 2024, are an early warning sign that something fundamental is changing in our oceans, that they are moving closer to the 'tipping points' feared by climate scientists. With global warming recently rising above 1.5C for a full year for the first time, Dr Burgess pointed to some of the potential consequences of allowing this process to continue. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'One of the tipping points in the ocean is for ecosystems. So if we get up to two degrees of warming, it's predicted that we'll lose coral reefs and other calcifying organisms,' she said. 'If we get up to two degrees of warming, it's predicted to significantly disrupt our ocean circulation as well and, in the UK, in particular, we're much warmer than we would be due to warm ocean currents keeping our temperature quite mild.' Net zero better than geo-engineering Concern about climate change has prompted research into 'geo-engineering', with scientists investigating ways to artificially cool the Earth. One such project involves removing carbon from the sea, storing it, and returning the decarbonised water, which is then better able to absorb carbon from the air. Such research may strike some as hopeful, but as far as I'm concerned, it's mildly terrifying. If we have reached a point where we must start interfering with the climate on a global scale, we really are in trouble. The potential for unintended consequences when dealing with such a complex system seems obvious and immense. The drive to reduce our carbon emissions to net zero by 2050 may be difficult – or even, as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has claimed, 'impossible'. However, to my mind, it still provides the safest, surest way out of the growing climate crisis, for all the practical problems that completing such an endeavour within 25 years will inevitably create. The task is vast, but so is the threat. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad

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