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Newsweek
6 days ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Democrat Edges Out Incumbent Florida Republican in New Poll
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. A new poll from Kaplan Strategies regarding Florida's 27th Congressional District showed GOP Representative Maria Elvira Salazar trailing a potential Democratic rival ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Why It Matters Democrats are hoping to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives in next year's midterm elections. Historically, the party outside of the White House performs well in the midterms, fueling Democratic optimism about a 2018-style blue wave. Florida's 27th Congressional District, which Salazar represents, has not been viewed as particularly competitive, but the latest survey of the race suggests Miami Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava could put the congresswoman in a close race if she chooses to run. The district contains areas around Miami. It's one of the heavily Latino districts that has shifted rightward in recent elections. Democrats' performance in the district and others like it will be a key test about whether they are able to win back support from Latino voters who once backed Democrats but supported President Donald Trump last November. What To Know The Kaplan Strategies poll published on Monday showed Levine Cava with an early, but narrow, lead over Salazar. Forty-four percent of respondents said they would back Levine Cava, while 42 percent said they plan to cast their ballot for Salazar, according to the poll. Meanwhile, 14 percent remained undecided. Newsweek reached out to Salazar and Levine Cava's offices for comment via email. Salazar polled better against other potential Democrats. Against former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey, Salazar led by seven points (45 to 38 percent). She led Democrat Alexander Fornino by 10 points (45 to 35 percent) and businessman Richard Lamondin by 11 points (45 to 34 percent). The poll surveyed 804 likely general election voters in July and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) lists FL-27 as one of its red-to-blue "districts in play," but forecasters view Republicans as the favorites. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball view the race as being "Safe Republican." Trump carried the seat by about 15 points last November, while Salazar won reelection by about 20 points. The district was more competitive in 2020, with Trump carrying it by less than a point over former President Joe Biden. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also handily carried the seat in 2016. Salazar has faced criticism from conservatives for embracing a more moderate, bipartisan approach to immigration issues than many in the party. She introduced the Dignity Act, which would provide an "updated compromise" addressing legal status and protections for undocumented immigrants, border security, asylum reform, and visa reform in July, drawing scrutiny from immigration hardliners like Steve Bannon. How competitive the district becomes could also depend on whether Florida redraws its congressional map ahead of the midterms. Some Republicans want to draw out some South Florida Democrats, but doing so could mean giving Republican incumbents like Salazar some more Democratic voters. Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, a Florida Republican, speaks at the Latino Wall Street CPAC Latino Conference in Hollywood, Florida, on June 28. Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, a Florida Republican, speaks at the Latino Wall Street CPAC Latino Conference in Hollywood, Florida, on June Latino Wall Street What People Are Saying Doug Kaplan wrote in the polling memo reported by Florida Politics: "This polling suggests national and local operatives should take Florida CD 27 seriously as a competitive swing district, especially given the underlying issues driving voter decisions: inflation, immigration, and crime." Representative Maria Elvira Salazar previously told Newsweek: "Since I come from the Hispanic community, and my district understands very well what this topic is about, I found something that is right in the middle, that can satisfy both sides of the aisle — and that's called dignity. What Happens Next? Levine Cava has not said for sure she plans to challenge Salazar next November. She has also been floated as a potential gubernatorial candidate.
Newsweek
01-07-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Thomas Massie Gets Brutal News From Poll
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Republican Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky risks losing his seat in Congress amid his battles with President Donald Trump, according to a new poll. Polling from Kaplan Strategies found that Massie was unpopular among Republican voters and would lose more support if Trump endorsed a primary opponent. Why It Matters Massie has gained notoriety in recent weeks following a series of skirmishes with Trump. The Kentucky lawmaker has voiced his opposition to the president's "big, beautiful" spending bill and has criticized Trump over his decision to strike Iran. In response, Trump has denounced Massie, prompting the president's allies to launch a super PAC to oust the representative, who has held his seat since 2012. Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky speaking with reporters outside the U.S. Capitol on June 23. Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky speaking with reporters outside the U.S. Capitol on June 23. Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images What To Know The poll of 368 likely GOP primary voters found that 19 percent said they planned to vote for Massie in the 2026 Republican primary. If Trump endorsed a primary opponent, the proportion of people voting for Massie would drop to 14 percent. The poll also showed that 23 percent of respondents viewed the representative favorably, while 62 percent viewed him unfavorably. In terms of his arguments with Trump, 72 percent said they were less likely to vote for Massie because of his opposition to Trump's tax cuts and budget, while 58 percent said they were less likely to vote for him over his opposition to Trump's Israel policy. The poll was conducted between June 23 and June 24, and its margin of error was plus or minus 5.1 percent. What People Are Saying President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on June 24: "Third Rate Congressman Thomas Massie, of the Great Commonwealth of Kentucky, a phenomenal State that I won all three times (by a lot!), keeps talking about how he is going to protect the Constitution, but he is actually very bad for the Constitution, and will probably vote against 'THE GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,' that grants the Biggest Tax Cuts in History, secures our Southern Border from Criminal Invasion, funds the Golden Dome, our Great Military and Veterans, protects our Second Amendment, grants NO TAX ON TIPS, NO TAX ON OVERTIME, and NO TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY (for our Great Seniors!), and so much more." In response to the president's post, Republican Representative Thomas Massie wrote on X, formerly Twitter: "@realDonaldTrump declared so much War on me today it should require an Act of Congress. #sassywithmassie." What Happens Next The general election for Massie's congressional seat is scheduled for November 3, 2026. The Kentucky representative has one declared primary challenger: Nicole Lee Ethington, a registered nurse.
