Democrat Edges Out Incumbent Florida Republican in New Poll
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A new poll from Kaplan Strategies regarding Florida's 27th Congressional District showed GOP Representative Maria Elvira Salazar trailing a potential Democratic rival ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Why It Matters
Democrats are hoping to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives in next year's midterm elections. Historically, the party outside of the White House performs well in the midterms, fueling Democratic optimism about a 2018-style blue wave.
Florida's 27th Congressional District, which Salazar represents, has not been viewed as particularly competitive, but the latest survey of the race suggests Miami Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava could put the congresswoman in a close race if she chooses to run. The district contains areas around Miami.
It's one of the heavily Latino districts that has shifted rightward in recent elections. Democrats' performance in the district and others like it will be a key test about whether they are able to win back support from Latino voters who once backed Democrats but supported President Donald Trump last November.
What To Know
The Kaplan Strategies poll published on Monday showed Levine Cava with an early, but narrow, lead over Salazar.
Forty-four percent of respondents said they would back Levine Cava, while 42 percent said they plan to cast their ballot for Salazar, according to the poll. Meanwhile, 14 percent remained undecided.
Newsweek reached out to Salazar and Levine Cava's offices for comment via email.
Salazar polled better against other potential Democrats.
Against former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey, Salazar led by seven points (45 to 38 percent). She led Democrat Alexander Fornino by 10 points (45 to 35 percent) and businessman Richard Lamondin by 11 points (45 to 34 percent).
The poll surveyed 804 likely general election voters in July and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) lists FL-27 as one of its red-to-blue "districts in play," but forecasters view Republicans as the favorites. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball view the race as being "Safe Republican."
Trump carried the seat by about 15 points last November, while Salazar won reelection by about 20 points. The district was more competitive in 2020, with Trump carrying it by less than a point over former President Joe Biden. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also handily carried the seat in 2016.
Salazar has faced criticism from conservatives for embracing a more moderate, bipartisan approach to immigration issues than many in the party. She introduced the Dignity Act, which would provide an "updated compromise" addressing legal status and protections for undocumented immigrants, border security, asylum reform, and visa reform in July, drawing scrutiny from immigration hardliners like Steve Bannon.
How competitive the district becomes could also depend on whether Florida redraws its congressional map ahead of the midterms. Some Republicans want to draw out some South Florida Democrats, but doing so could mean giving Republican incumbents like Salazar some more Democratic voters.
Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, a Florida Republican, speaks at the Latino Wall Street CPAC Latino Conference in Hollywood, Florida, on June 28.
Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, a Florida Republican, speaks at the Latino Wall Street CPAC Latino Conference in Hollywood, Florida, on June 28.for Latino Wall Street
What People Are Saying
Doug Kaplan wrote in the polling memo reported by Florida Politics: "This polling suggests national and local operatives should take Florida CD 27 seriously as a competitive swing district, especially given the underlying issues driving voter decisions: inflation, immigration, and crime."
Representative Maria Elvira Salazar previously told Newsweek: "Since I come from the Hispanic community, and my district understands very well what this topic is about, I found something that is right in the middle, that can satisfy both sides of the aisle — and that's called dignity.
What Happens Next?
Levine Cava has not said for sure she plans to challenge Salazar next November. She has also been floated as a potential gubernatorial candidate.
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