Latest news with #Karkhanis
Mint
27-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
UBS flags India's high-risk premium despite recent equities upgrade
Given that corporate earnings growth in India has been stable, the exorbitant risk premium—extra returns that investors expect from riskier assets—linked to Indian equities is unreasonable, global brokerage UBS Securities said. India traditionally carried a 20-25% risk premium versus other emerging markets. However, recently, that premium has soared to 60%, a level unjustified by the current pace of corporate earnings growth, Sunil Tirumalai, head of Emerging Markets and Asia Equity Strategy at UBS Securities, said during a virtual media briefing on Tuesday. Indian equities often carry a high risk premium, driven by their long-term growth story and the appeal of a young, consumption-led economy. But alongside this optimism come challenges like policy uncertainty, market volatility and currency risks that make investors demand extra returns. The premium reflects both optimism about India's future and the risks tied to it. Also read: Global stock markets not pricing in severe downturn just yet: Nomura's Karkhanis In late April, UBS Securities tactically changed their equity strategy for emerging markets to domestic and defensive-oriented sectors in view of global trade tensions, while upgrading stance on India to neutral from underweight. However, a stronger case to invest in India will likely emerge when corporate earnings growth picks up, manufacturing gains traction and US-India trade negotiations reach a breakthrough, Tirumalai said during the briefing ahead of the UBS Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong. From September 2024 to May 2025, the Nifty 50 and the Nifty Midcap 150 indices went through a full peak-to-trough-to-rebound cycle—correcting 16% and 21%, then recovering 13–17% from their February and March 2025 lows, respectively, highlighted a 22 May report by Elara Capital. Yet, the market that has emerged looking fundamentally different, it read. 'The drawdowns were valuation-led and broad-based; the rebound has been rotational, earnings-supported on a selective basis, and anchored in lower-multiple segments." Meanwhile, even foreign inflows into India seem to be back as India is seen as a relative safe haven. Also read: PTC Industries: How high can the stock really go? 'FIIs turned positive on most of the emerging markets as news flow on trade and tariffs improved," said a report by BNP Paribas dated 14 May. Markets have reacted positively to the tariff pause, US-UK trade deal and rollback of recent tariffs between the US and China, the report said. Analysts suggested that a clearer global tariff outlook was essential for the return of FII flows. Over the past month, many believe that uncertainty surrounding tariffs has eased. As a result, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have purchased Indian equities worth $6.1 billion over the 16 trading sessions leading up to 8 May. According to a report by BNP Paribas, FII ownership in Indian markets, which had been on a downward trend for several years, has stabilized since February 2025. Net FPI investments in Indian equities turned positive in April, with inflows of ₹4,223 crore, following three straight months of outflows— ₹78,027 crore in January, ₹34,574 crore in February, and ₹3,973 crore in March. So far in May (up to the 26 May), FPIs have made net purchases totaling ₹14,429 crore, according to data from NSDL. Tirumalai said that when the dollar softens, emerging markets usually gain, adding that he expects the greenback to stay weak through the rest of 2025. Also read: This fertilizer stock rose 88% in a year. Will MSCI entry trigger further rally? A weak dollar makes emerging market assets like Indian equities more attractive to foreign investors, as their returns improve in dollar terms. It also eases funding conditions globally, encouraging capital flows into higher-yielding markets. In 2025 so far, MSCI EM has gained nearly 9% while MSCI India is up 3.4%. UBS Securities continues to favour China for now, citing its attractive valuations and comparatively stronger fundamentals. Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan noted that Chinese equities have recovered most of the losses since US President Donald Trump's 2 April "Liberation Day" tariffs announced to curb imports, like the rest of the world, but have lagged the performance of the EM benchmark, as well as the developed market benchmark. Within the emerging market pack, Chinese equities were the worst hit in the post-Liberation Day sharp de-risking, down 13% in less than a week, the 19 May report highlighted. 'We recognize that 90 days may not be enough for the US and China to deliver a trade agreement, and the tariffs noise is unlikely to go away, but we do not expect the US to again adopt an aggressive trade stance towards China, which could allow EM equities to trade better," said J.P. Morgan analysts in their equity strategy report, while upgrading their stance on emerging markets to neutral from underweight.
Mint
22-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
India starts FY26 on a strong note, reclaims top spot among EM peers in April
The Indian economy stepped into fiscal year 2025–26 on a strong footing, reclaiming the top spot among emerging markets in April after a three-month hiatus, driven by a robust stock market rebound. India led the Emerging Markets (EM) leaderboard with a score of 87 out of 100 in April, followed by the Philippines (68) and Thailand (59) in distant second and third places, respectively. China, which had held the top rank in March, slipped to fourth in April as its exports, foreign exchange reserves, and market capitalization weakened amid ongoing tariff tensions with the US. Read this | Global equity markets not pricing in a severe downturn just yet, says Nomura's Karkhanis India jumped two places from third the previous month, buoyed by the best stock market performance among its EM peers and a relatively strong rupee. These two factors had weighed on India's recent performance amid market volatility. However, in April, market capitalization rose 5.7% month-on-month, reversing a 2.2% decline in March. Similarly, the rupee appreciated 1.1% in April, compared with a 0.7% gain the month before. Read this | FPI assets top $800 billion after 4 months as markets rebound on eased trade worries GDP growth and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI)--the two strongest indicators for India--remained the best among all EM peers, bolstering India's position. The Philippines retained the second rank as its GDP growth was among the highest in the March quarter. Its currency also stayed stable, with a 1% on-month gain in April. Thailand claimed the third rank, backed by the highest export growth among EM peers. Its inflation remained under control, and the currency stayed stable. Also read | In charts: Retail inflation eases again, but signs of price pressures are there Launched in September 2019, Mint's Emerging Markets Tracker provides a summary of economic activity across 10 large emerging markets based on seven high-frequency indicators: real GDP growth, manufacturing PMI, export growth, retail inflation, import cover, exchange rate movement, and stock market. The rankings are provisional as the scores will get updated once all latest data is available. Methodology note: The tracker is a monthly summary of economic activity across nine large emerging markets based on seven high-frequency indicators. Latest available data is used. On each indicator, the best-performing economy gets a score of 100, the worst one gets zero, and the others get linearly-interpolated relative scores. A country's composite index score is the simple average of its seven indicator scores. Earlier, the tracker had a 10th country, Russia, but it has been dropped temporarily as some data has not been reliably available since the Ukraine war began.
Time of India
18-05-2025
- Sport
- Time of India
Ex-Mumbai and SPG wicketkeeper-batter Papa Karkhanis passes away
Pappa Karkhanis MUMBAI: Former Mumbai wicketkeeper-batter Vijay alias 'Papa' Karkhanis passed away on Sunday morning at his residence in Borivali. He was 86. Pappa played for the famed Shivaji Park Gymkhana and Central Bank in local cricket. As per old-timers, he was a dashing batter and good wicketkeeper. Karkhanis played seven first-class matches for Mumbai in the late 60s. He played for two decades for Shivaji Park Gymkhana in a team which had numerous Mumbai greats. Karkhanis was a close friend of batting legend Sunil Gavaskar. "He was the most loved guy in the team. He used to keep everyone in splits. I was supposed to meet him at (my) annual get-together on the 14th (May) which is postponed for now," Gavaskar told TOI. Go Beyond The Boundary with our YouTube channel. SUBSCRIBE NOW! Karkhanis was amongst the first few coaches who saw potential in India's ODI captain Rohit Sharma. "When Rohit was just 14, he was selected for the Mumbai Cricket Association's summer camp for the Borivali Centre. At that time, Papa was the coach there. He told me that Rohit has a great future for Mumbai. He was such a lovely human being. So sad that he is no more," said Rohit's childhood coach Dinesh Lad. Who's that IPL player? Interestingly, in Oct 2020, Karkhanis survived covid despite being hospitalised for 45 days after being struck by the deadly virus at the age of 80 "He was a good 'keeper-bat, and kept everyone in the dressing room in good spirits. He was a good team-man. He was the No 1 wicketkeeper of a strong SPG team in those days," former Mumbai captain Milind Rege, who passed away in Feb this year, had once told this paper about Karkhanis. Bombay Sport Exchange Ep 5: Shane Watson on how IPL gave him a lifeline & his tribute to Phil Hughes Karkhanis played two sterling knocks of 52 & 43 to help Bombay beat Madras on the basis of first innings lead in the 1967-68 Ranji Trophy final at the Brabourne Stadium. Papa along with Bombay skipper Manohar Hardikar (73 & 65 not out) tackled Madras' ace spinners S Venkataraghavan and Vaman Kumar. Hardikar and Eknath Solkar defied the Madras attack in the post-tea session on the last day, which helped Bombay retain the Ranji Trophy for the tenth successive season. 'He was swift behind the wickets to the likes of Ramakant Desai, Baloo Gupte and others,' said veteran cricket commentator Milind Wagle. Get IPL 2025 match schedules , squads , points table , and live scores for CSK , MI , RCB , KKR , SRH , LSG , DC , GT , PBKS , and RR . Check the latest IPL Orange Cap and Purple Cap standings.
Time of India
18-05-2025
- Sport
- Time of India
Ex-Mumbai and SPG wicketkeeper-batter Pappa Karkhanis passes away
Pappa Karkhanis MUMBAI: Former Mumbai wicketkeeper-batter Vijay alias 'Papa' Karkhanis passed away on Sunday morning at his residence in Borivali. He was 86. Pappa played for the famed Shivaji Park Gymkhana and Central Bank in local cricket. As per old-timers, he was a dashing batter and good wicketkeeper. Karkhanis played seven first-class matches for Mumbai in the late 60s. He played for two decades for Shivaji Park Gymkhana in a team which had numerous Mumbai greats. Karkhanis was a close friend of batting legend Sunil Gavaskar. "He was the most loved guy in the team. He used to keep everyone in splits. I was supposed to meet him at (my) annual get-together on the 14th (May) which is postponed for now," Gavaskar told TOI. Go Beyond The Boundary with our YouTube channel. SUBSCRIBE NOW! Karkhanis was amongst the first few coaches who saw potential in India's ODI captain Rohit Sharma. "When Rohit was just 14, he was selected for the Mumbai Cricket Association's summer camp for the Borivali Centre. At that time, Papa was the coach there. He told me that Rohit has a great future for Mumbai. He was such a lovely human being. So sad that he is no more," said Rohit's childhood coach Dinesh Lad. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 2025년 가장 멋진 RPG 게임을 지금 정복하세요 레이드 섀도우 레전드 Undo Who's that IPL player? Interestingly, in Oct 2020, Karkhanis survived covid despite being hospitalised for 45 days after being struck by the deadly virus at the age of 80 "He was a good 'keeper-bat, and kept everyone in the dressing room in good spirits. He was a good team-man. He was the No 1 wicketkeeper of a strong SPG team in those days," former Mumbai captain Milind Rege, who passed away in Feb this year, had once told this paper about Karkhanis. Bombay Sport Exchange Ep 5: Shane Watson on how IPL gave him a lifeline & his tribute to Phil Hughes Karkhanis played two sterling knocks of 52 & 43 to help Bombay beat Madras on the basis of first innings lead in the 1967-68 Ranji Trophy final at the Brabourne Stadium. Papa along with Bombay skipper Manohar Hardikar (73 & 65 not out) tackled Madras' ace spinners S Venkataraghavan and Vaman Kumar. Hardikar and Eknath Solkar defied the Madras attack in the post-tea session on the last day, which helped Bombay retain the Ranji Trophy for the tenth successive season. 'He was swift behind the wickets to the likes of Ramakant Desai, Baloo Gupte and others,' said veteran cricket commentator Milind Wagle. Get IPL 2025 match schedules , squads , points table , and live scores for CSK , MI , RCB , KKR , SRH , LSG , DC , GT , PBKS , and RR . Check the latest IPL Orange Cap and Purple Cap standings.
Mint
05-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Global equity markets not pricing in a severe downturn just yet, says Nomura's Karkhanis
The global equity markets are not pricing in a severe downturn just yet because a covid-style shock looks unlikely, even as there is a risk of a mild recession in the US, according to Rig Karkhanis, head of global markets at Nomura. Any progress on a US-China settlement could calm market nerves and potentially trigger a turnaround—especially in non-US markets, said Karkhanis. 'I think regions like Europe and India could see a significant wave of inflows and investor interest in that scenario." Karkhanis flagged some selling of US assets—both equities and debt—as investors begin shifting towards Europe, Japan and emerging markets (EMs), especially China after its fiscal stimulus announcement. He noted that while inflows into India are starting to pick up, the trend is still in its early stages. Overall, he believes the outflows from the US have not been significant. Edited excerpts: I think it is useful to look at the US and the rest of the world a bit differently. The core issue here is trade uncertainty, and since the US is at the centre of it, the risk of a mild recession there is real. But 'recession" often sounds worse than it is—there is not a big difference between 1% growth and 1% contraction. The real question is whether we are looking at a covid-style shock, something deep and disruptive that causes lasting damage to the economy. We don't think that's likely. Also read | RBI's double-barreled liquidity surge in May to force down lending rates The trade tensions seem to be moving from confrontation to negotiation now, which is a positive sign. Sure, there will be disruption—supply-chain changes, short-term inflation, lower capital investment—but if inflation remains under control and supply chains stay functional, the Fed (US Federal Reserve) has room to respond. Tariffs tend to be one-time shocks, with disinflationary effects afterwards. Outside the US, recession risks look far lower. Countries like India and those in Europe still have room to cut rates or use fiscal tools. China might feel more pressure, but it is already stimulating its economy. And if you look at the equity markets, while the US is down, Europe and China are actually up this year. So, markets are not pricing in a severe global downturn just yet. While one might expect a shift away from equities, particularly in the US, that has not happened yet. The real question is about debt, though I don't think there are long-term concerns. We have seen some selling of US assets, both equities and debt, and a shift towards Europe, Japan and emerging markets, especially China since its fiscal stimulus announcement. We are also starting to see some flows into India, though that is still developing. Overall, the outflows from the US have not been significant. China, once driven by exports and a global manufacturing hub, is now focusing on strengthening its domestic economy. It is looking to address the housing boom, and though fiscal spending has been slow, the outlook for recovery is improving. The trade war remains a major concern, not just with the US but also through proxies like South-East Asia and Mexico. For the US, replacing China's manufacturing is challenging, as alternatives are limited. This points to the likelihood of a negotiated solution. Investors are risk-off because no one expected the scale of the tariff impact—especially that it would be global and hit even the closest allies of the US. And no one anticipated the kind of rhetoric that came with that either. I think this has raised a real question around US exceptionalism—whether the dollar and US treasuries are still the best investable assets, whether they still qualify as truly risk-free. Also read | Corporates tap bond markets for record fundraise in FY2025 The answer is still yes. There are many reasons the US remains unique, especially as a store of wealth. But the uncertainty around that is clearly greater than it was a few years ago, especially with the growing fiscal deficit. That said, if there is progress on a US-China settlement, markets would likely find comfort in that. It could help steady sentiment and spark a turnaround—particularly for non-US markets. I think regions like Europe and India could see a significant wave of inflows and investor interest in that scenario. I think the biggest macro risk is that if the tariff war does not get resolved and keeps escalating. If it turns into a real supply-chain collapse, where goods stop flowing, that would cause serious economic damage, especially for China and the US. Then it becomes a matter of who blinks first, and that is a bad outcome for everyone. Hopefully, it doesn't come to that. The other big risk is if this drags on and starts affecting dollar availability, either intentionally by the US or the dollar gets scarce when we go into a risk-off mode. That could start impacting credit availability and existing inventories across asset managers, banks and the broader financial system. The last thing we need is a financial crisis being triggered by this, and no one wins. I think we are still far from that. My base case is that we see some form of improved settlement. In that scenario, even with India's relatively higher valuations compared to other EMs, it should still do well and outperform. I would expect India to be up around 5-10%, and broader EMs maybe around 5%. The worst-case scenario, though, could be quite severe. It is hard to pinpoint exactly, but if there is no settlement and we see a supply-chain breakdown, SMEs (small and medium enterprises) in middle America would take a big hit; we could see defaults, and even political instability in the US. In that case, EMs could fall 15%, and India would likely be pulled down, too—possibly around 10%. One of the reasons I'm here is that we had an offsite with the team to explore how to accelerate Nomura's growth in India. There's a lot of opportunity, and the firm is committed to investing in India. We see India not just as one of the best emerging market opportunities, but as one of the best global opportunities for investment. Japan and India share a long history of collaboration, particularly in infrastructure, which makes this a strong fit for Nomura. Also read | Shockwaves from Trump's tariff war lap at MPC's door Our focus areas include private credit, where we have strong capabilities and see significant potential to deploy balance sheet capital. We're also seeing strong growth in our equities business, and connecting further with India's cash equity markets will be key for foreign investors. Additionally, we've recently received approval for our FX (forex) licence, opening up new opportunities to provide FX solutions for both international and local clients. We are also exploring cross-border banking opportunities, particularly from Japan.
