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Arab News
13-05-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Pakistan sees minimal fiscal impact from India standoff as economists estimate billions in losses
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan's finance ministry said on Tuesday the recent four-day standoff with India will not have a significant fiscal impact, as analysts estimated that the conflict cost both countries losses of around $1 billion per hour. Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated after a deadly April 22 attack on Hindu tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 people. India blamed Pakistan for the assault, an allegation denied by officials in Islamabad, though it still led to one the worst military confronts between the two nuclear-armed neighbors in decades. A ceasefire was announced on Saturday by US President Donald Trump, following four days of fighting and intense diplomatic efforts led by Washington. However, the military confrontation, by then, had disrupted stock markets, led to airspace closures, escalated defense spending and caused economic losses amounting to billions of dollars. 'The current standoff with India won't have a large fiscal impact on Pakistan,' Khurram Schehzad, adviser to the finance minister, told Arab News. 'It can be managed within the current fiscal space, with no need for a new economic assessment,' he added. Schehzad said Pakistan's economic resilience was evident from a new record at the Pakistan Stock Exchange, which on Monday posted the highest single-day gain in over 26 years, surging by 10,123 points or 9.45 percent, significantly surpassing the losses recorded last week following the Indian strike. 'Pakistan's measured and responsible response, in both its narrative and actions on the ground, has caught investors' eye, alongside the potential positive spillover effect of a possible settlement in the US-China tariff issue,' he added. Arab News reached out to the defense ministry and Pakistan's military media wing for official estimates of the conflict's cost, but did not receive a response by the time of filing this story. Meanwhile, economists said the recent military standoff inflicted heavy financial losses on both countries, with combined costs approaching $1 billion per hour. 'The recent conflict, over an 87-hour period, I think cost about a billion dollars an hour for both countries,' economist Farrukh Saleem told Arab News. He estimated total combined losses of between $80 and $90 billion over the four-day period. 'About 20 percent of that was incurred by Pakistan and a good 80 to 85 percent by India,' he added. Saleem said daily economic losses from the conflict, including stock market declines and other impacts, amounted to around $20 billion per day, with Pakistan losing up to $4 billion and India as much as $16 billion per day. 'I have tried to put things together. If this conflict had continued for 30 days, my estimate is that both countries would have lost a good $500 billion, with over a $400 billion loss for the Indian economy,' he added. Explaining India's higher losses, he noted that each Rafale fighter jet costs around $240 million, while Pakistan's JF-17 Thunder or J-10C jets are priced between $20 and $25 million per unit. 'BrahMos, for instance, the Indian ballistic missile, costs $3 million apiece. If, for example, 10 units are used in a day, that amounts to $30 million in a single day,' he said. Dr. Ali Salman, Executive Director of the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME), an Islamabad-based independent economic policy think tank, said the conflict had disrupted economic sentiment and affected investor confidence. 'Certainly, investors would not like to come into countries, whether India or Pakistan, if they are in a constant war-like situation,' he told Arab News. He emphasized that prolonged conflict would push people in both countries deeper into poverty, noting that one in four poor people in the world lives in India or Pakistan. 'We have 27 percent of the world's poor in just these two countries, and I believe that we need to come out of the military context and go into an economic context,' he added. Another economist, Shakeel Ramay, said every war has an economic dimension and that the conflict had imposed a heavy financial burden on both economies. 'Pakistan's military expenditure over the four-day conflict, including jets, artillery and missiles, amounted to around $1.5 billion from the national budget, by my estimate,' he said, adding that this was significant, especially as the country continues to face economic challenges. 'The good thing is our economic activities continued without interruption, retail markets operated smoothly with no shortages and trade routes remained open, all indicating that the direct economic cost was minimal,' he added.
Arab News
11-05-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Azad Kashmir says India's cross-border shelling killed 31 in last four days
ISLAMABAD: At least 31 people were killed and 123 injured in the last four days due to cross-border firing by Indian forces, Pakistan-administered Kashmir's disaster management authority said on Sunday. Indian and Pakistani troops have exchanged heavy fire along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border dividing the disputed Himalayan Kashmir territory between India and Pakistan, since tensions escalated last month. Tensions surged between the nuclear-armed neighbors this week when India fired missiles at what it said were 'terrorist' camps in Pakistan, killing several people. New Delhi blamed Islamabad for an Apr. 22 attack at a tourist resort in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26, charges that Islamabad denied. Pakistan said Indian strikes on Wednesday killed several civilians, vowing retaliation. Pakistan's military launched retaliatory strikes against India on Saturday morning in response to what it said were drone and missile strikes on Pakistani air bases during the wee hours of Friday. Both countries have since then agreed to a ceasefire brokered by the United States and encouraged by other countries. 'Thirty-one people were killed in Azad Kashmir's ten districts during the last four days during the India-Pakistan war,' Azad Kashmir's State Disaster Management Authority said in a situation report. Giving a breakdown of the figures, the report said 11 people were killed in Kotli district while six each died in districts Bhimber and Poonch. Three people were killed in Muzaffarabad district while two were killed in Neelum. The report said 287 houses and 21 shops were damaged due to shelling in the past four days while 22 cattle were killed. Within hours of the ceasefire announcement on Saturday, India accused Islamabad of violating it by targeting Srinagar city in Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan's Information Minister Ata Tarar denied the allegation, saying people in his country were celebrating the end of the conflict and the government remained committed to the agreement. The foreign office of Pakistan also maintained the country remained committed to the 'faithful implementation' of the ceasefire.
CBC
10-05-2025
- Politics
- CBC
‘Every day we hear sounds of shelling,' says journalist in Kashmir
The India-Pakistan conflict is escalating as blasts, civilian deaths and tensions rise. Freelance journalist Zafar Aafaq, who's in India-administered Kashmir, says it's 'very hard' to predict how the situation will develop.
Arab News
09-05-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Saudi minister arrives in Islamabad amid India-Pakistan tensions following New Delhi visit
ISLAMABAD: Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir arrived in Islamabad on Friday after a visit to New Delhi, as tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan continue to escalate. Al-Jubeir's visit follows India's military strikes inside Pakistan in response to a gun attack in the disputed region of Kashmir that left 26 tourists dead, with New Delhi blaming Islamabad for the incident, though Pakistani authorities repeatedly denied any involvement. With the two archrivals teetering on the edge of a full-scale war, the United States announced on Thursday that Secretary of State Marco Rubio had discussed regional de-escalation with Saudi officials. The same day, Al-Jubeir also made a surprise stop in New Delhi for talks with Indian officials. 'Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar will receive Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs today,' said an official statement prior to the Saudi official's arrival in Islamabad. State media later broadcast visuals of Al-Jubeir disembarking from his aircraft in Islamabad. According to Pakistan's Geo News, the Saudi minister is expected to meet with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir during his visit. While the Pakistani government has not officially disclosed the purpose of Al-Jubeir's visit, it is anticipated that discussions will focus on the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan, as well as other issues of mutual interest. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan share close diplomatic and strategic relations. The Kingdom has extended significant support to Pakistan during its prolonged economic challenges in recent years, including external financing and assistance with International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programs. Saudi Arabia has also contributed to global peacemaking efforts by hosting talks and mediating prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine.
New York Times
09-05-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
Live Updates: India-Pakistan Conflict Intensifies Into Most Expansive in Decades
A soldier examines a building damaged by a suspected Indian missile attack near Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, on Wednesday. The risk of all-out war between India and Pakistan rose on Thursday, despite diplomatic attempts to de-escalate the conflict between the two nuclear-armed countries. On Wednesday, India said it carried out strikes on Pakistan in retaliation for a terrorist attack that killed 26 civilians in Kashmir last month. Pakistan said its forces shot down Indian aircraft. Overnight into Thursday, heavy shelling and strikes were reported on each side of the border. The two nations have fought numerous wars, with the disputed area of Kashmir as a prime flashpoint, since 1947, when Britain divided India, its former colony, into India and Pakistan. Here is what to know about attempts to resolve the conflict, Wednesday's strikes, the attack in Kashmir, and the longstanding tensions between India and Pakistan. What's the latest in the fighting? The Indian government said on Thursday that it had thwarted Pakistani attempts to unleash drones and missiles at Indian military targets in more than a dozen cities and towns, many of them home to air force bases. India said it had responded by striking Pakistan's air defense systems and radars close to the city of Lahore — the kind of blow that often causes a military conflict to intensify, analysts said. Pakistan accused India of continuing what it called illegal aggression and said its forces had shot down more than two dozen Indian drones that entered Pakistan's airspace. In the rapidly developing situation, the claims from both sides could not be independently verified. On Wednesday, the Indian government said its forces had struck nine sites in Pakistan and on Pakistan's side of the disputed Kashmir region. Video After Indian forces struck Pakistan and its side of the disputed Kashmir region, Pakistani military officials said they had begun a forceful response. Credit Credit... M.D. Mughal/Associated Press Pakistani military officials said that more than 20 people had been killed and dozens injured after six places were hit on the Pakistani side of Kashmir and in Punjab Province. Residents of the Indian side of Kashmir said at least 10 people had been killed in shelling from the Pakistani side since India carried out its strikes. A spokesman for the Pakistani Army said that five other places had also come under attack, leaving at least eight people dead and 35 wounded. Reported strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir China Controlled by Pakistan boundary undefined line of control Muzaffarabad Controlled by India Pahalgam Militant attack on April 22 Bagh Islamabad Kotli Strikes by India on May 7 India Shakargarh Muridke Disputed area Pakistan PAK. INDIA Bahawalpur China Controlled by Pakistan boundary undefined line of control Muzaffarabad Controlled by India Bagh Islamabad Pahalgam Militant attack on April 22 Kotli Strikes by India on May 7 India Shakargarh Muridke Disputed area Pakistan PAK. INDIA Bahawalpur China Controlled by Pakistan boundary undefined line of control Muzaffarabad Bagh Islamabad Pahalgam Militant attack on April 22 Controlled by India Kotli Strikes by India on May 7 India Shakargarh Disputed area Muridke Pakistan PAK. INDIA Bahawalpur The targeted locations included Bahawalpur, in Punjab Province, Pakistan, the site of a religious seminary associated with Jaish-e-Mohammad, another Pakistan-based militant group; Kotli and Bagh in Pakistan-administered Kashmir; and Shakargarh and Muridke in Punjab. Lashkar-e-Taiba is believed to have a presence in Muridke. The Pakistani military said that Indian planes did not enter Pakistan's airspace while conducting the attacks. What are the efforts to stop the fighting? Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with leaders from both countries on Thursday and emphasized the need for 'immediate de-escalation,' according to State Department accounts of the calls. There were a flurry of diplomatic meetings in New Delhi and Islamabad on Thursday. Top diplomats from Iran and Saudi Arabia, crucial regional players who have close ties to both of the warring countries, were in New Delhi for meetings. The diplomatic push was centered around the hope that the heaviest military engagement could be contained to the actions on early Wednesday. Both sides could plausibly claim victory, as India struck deeper into Pakistan than it had at any point in recent decades, and Pakistan downed several Indian planes. Diplomats and analysts expressed some hope that the day's events might offer the two sides an offramp. The question now is whether Pakistan will decide that it must answer India's strikes in Punjab, the Pakistani heartland, with an attack of its own on Indian soil. What happened in the Kashmir attack? On April 22, 26 people in the Baisaran Valley in Kashmir were killed by militants who approached and shot them. Another 17 were injured. Except for one local Kashmiri man, a government tally of the dead showed that all were Hindu tourists. Accounts from the injured and survivors suggested many were targeted after they were asked about their religion. The attack, which occurred near Pahalgam, a town in the southern part of Indian-administered Kashmir, was one of the worst on Indian civilians in decades. A group calling itself the Resistance Front emerged on social media to take responsibility. Indian officials privately say the group is a proxy for Lashkar-e-Taiba, a terrorist organization based in Pakistan. In Kashmir, Indian security forces have begun a sweeping clampdown, arresting thousands of people. What is Operation Sindoor? India picked the name 'Operation Sindoor' for its military action. Sindoor, or vermilion powder, is a traditional marker of the marital status of Hindu women. Married women wear it either in the parting of their hair or on their foreheads, and they wipe it off if they become widowed. During the April 22 terrorist attack, many women lost their husbands, who were targeted because they were Hindu. The Indian government's choice of the name Operation Sindoor signaled its intention to avenge the widowed women. 'Operation Sindoor' also signals to right-wing Hindu groups — many of which favor more traditionally defined gender roles — that the Hindu nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is listening to their demands for vengeance. But some feminists have criticized the use of the word sindoor. Hindu nationalism is predominantly driven by a male view of the world, said V. Geetha, a feminist historian who writes about gender, caste and class. 'Women figure in it as objects to be protected or as mother figures goading their men to prove their heroism,' Ms. Geetha said. What are the origins of the dispute? The roots of the Kashmir conflict trace back to the 1947 partition of British India, which led to the creation of a predominantly Hindu India and a predominantly Muslim Pakistan. In October of that year, the Hindu monarch of the Muslim-majority princely state of Kashmir acceded to India, but Pakistan laid claim to the territory and sought to take it by military force. A U.N.-brokered agreement in 1949 established a cease-fire line, dividing Kashmir. After wars in 1965 and 1971, the cease-fire line became the Line of Control, with India possessing about two-thirds of Kashmir and Pakistan the rest. But the dispute remains unresolved. Here is a timeline of the decades of tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Has Pakistan supported militancy in Kashmir? An insurgency in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir began in the 1980s, primarily driven by local grievances, with Pakistan eventually supporting some groups, experts say. Among the Kashmir-focused insurgent groups that emerged, some supported independence for the region, while others wanted the Indian side of Kashmir to be taken over by Pakistan. In the 1990s, Pakistan provided training and other support to several militant groups operating in Kashmir and within Pakistan. This involvement was later acknowledged by several senior Pakistani officials, including the former military ruler Pervez Musharraf. The spike in insurgency in the 1990s forced an exodus of Kashmir's minority Hindus, a large number of them leaving for New Delhi and other cities after facing targeted attacks. The insurgency began to ease around 2002, as Pakistan banned Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, another major militant group, although Lashkar-e-Taiba continued to operate under aliases. A cease-fire was declared and a peace process with India was initiated, a shift that some observers linked to pressure by the United States after its post-9/11 intervention in Afghanistan. The peace process collapsed after attacks in Mumbai, India, in 2008, which killed 166 people and were attributed to Lashkar-e-Taiba. What is Kashmir's status now? Since war last broke out in 1999, Kashmir has remained one of the most militarized places in the world. India and Pakistan have come to the brink of war several times, including in 2019, when a suicide bombing in Kashmir killed at least 40 Indian soldiers. In 2019, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi revoked a part of the Indian constitution that had given semi-autonomy to the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The move, to fully integrate Jammu and Kashmir, as India's portion of the region is known, was part of his Hindu nationalist agenda. Pakistan condemned India's moves. But violent unrest has broken out in the part of Kashmir controlled by Pakistan, too. Protests there have reflected a general feeling of dissatisfaction with Pakistani rule. Direct rule by India dampened the outbreaks of violence in the portion of Kashmir it controlled. Voting also resumed last year. But discontent with Mr. Modi's party, particularly for how heavily it polices the lives of Kashmiris, remains.
