Latest news with #Katulis
France 24
13 hours ago
- Politics
- France 24
Trump plays deft hand with Iran-Israel ceasefire but doubts remain
Israel, Iran and Trump himself all declared victory after 12 days of conflict that culminated Saturday in the United States bombing Iran's key nuclear sites. After facing criticism -- even within his base -- for breaking his campaign promises against military intervention abroad, Trump was able to show a quick way out, and to portray himself, despite the bombing, as a peacemaker. "I don't think the Israeli government was able to sustain a long-term war, but I think the main factor here was President Trump. He did not want to see a new war in the region break out under his watch," said Will Todman, a senior fellow at the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "That is what changed the calculation for Israel and for Iran as well." Trump startled even close aides and allies by announcing the ceasefire on social media late Monday -- the middle of the night in the Middle East -- just after Iran fired missiles at a US base in Qatar, in what appeared to be a choreographed response as the rockets were easily shot down. Trump chose not to retaliate against Iran and on Tuesday, returned to his electronic bully pulpit to urge Israel to abort new attacks on Iran. Iran needed an off-ramp as it suffered its worst assault since the 1980-88 war with Iraq. Trump also appeared to offer incentives to sanctions-bound Iran by suggesting an easing of US pressure on China to stop buying Iranian oil. Israel's military, while proving itself to be the region's strongest, has been stretched by campaigns in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon, and with Iranian strikes this month, the Israeli population endured the most prolonged, deadly air attacks seen in decades. After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Trump's intervention, the president's warning Tuesday likely also showed him the limits to US support, Todman said. What was achieved? Trump hailed his intervention as a monumental success, although critics have long warned that an attack could make Iran rush, more clandestinely, to a nuclear bomb. While Trump claimed Iran's nuclear program was "obliterated," a classified report found that the US bombing did not destroy the core parts of the three nuclear sites, according to CNN and The New York Times. Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said it's too early to know if the ceasefire would hold, either. He said that Gulf Arab powers, led by well-connected Qatar, did the hard work of quiet diplomacy as they sought a return to calm in their region. "Trump vocally used his troll power to try to restrain the actions of Israel and Iran, but that matters less compared with the role that these countries continuously play," Katulis said of Gulf Arab states. Katulis, who worked on the Middle East for former president Bill Clinton, said the Trump administration's tactical military operations, combined with "a heavy dose of strategic communications" confused Americans and global actors alike "about what it is we're actually trying to get done." Showing heft at home One area where Trump's diplomacy had clear -- if short-term -- benefits was at home. A prolonged US military campaign "had the potential to really fracture President Trump's own base of support," said Jonathan Panikoff, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. But now, "my guess is the majority of his MAGA and other Republican base will stay relatively unified, even if they were unthrilled in some quarters," he said. While traditional hawks of Trump's Republican Party largely cheered the Iran strikes, they were widely but not universally denounced by rival Democrats. Annelle Sheline, who resigned from the State Department to protest policies under former president Joe Biden and is now at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said it was critical for Trump to enforce the ceasefire. She noted Israel has bombed Lebanon and Gaza during truces, saying Netanyahu believed he enjoyed "America's unconditional support." "Trump demonstrated that he can rein in Israel when he chooses to do so. Now he must do the same to insist on a ceasefire in Gaza," she said.
Int'l Business Times
13 hours ago
- Politics
- Int'l Business Times
Trump Plays Deft Hand With Iran-Israel Ceasefire But Doubts Remain
With his surprise announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, US President Donald Trump has turned his flair for social media into diplomatic deftness, despite continued uncertainty in the Middle East. Israel, Iran and Trump himself all declared victory after 12 days of conflict that culminated Saturday in the United States bombing Iran's key nuclear sites. After facing criticism -- even within his base -- for breaking his campaign promises against military intervention abroad, Trump was able to show a quick way out, and to portray himself, despite the bombing, as a peacemaker. "I don't think the Israeli government was able to sustain a long-term war, but I think the main factor here was President Trump. He did not want to see a new war in the region break out under his watch," said Will Todman, a senior fellow at the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "That is what changed the calculation for Israel and for Iran as well." Trump startled even close aides and allies by announcing the ceasefire on social media late Monday -- the middle of the night in the Middle East -- just after Iran fired missiles at a US base in Qatar, in what appeared to be a choreographed response as the rockets were easily shot down. Trump chose not to retaliate against Iran and on Tuesday, returned to his electronic bully pulpit to urge Israel to abort new attacks on Iran. Iran needed an off-ramp as it suffered its worst assault since the 1980-88 war with Iraq. Trump also appeared to offer incentives to sanctions-bound Iran by suggesting an easing of US pressure on China to stop buying Iranian oil. Israel's military, while proving itself to be the region's strongest, has been stretched by campaigns in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon, and with Iranian strikes this month, the Israeli population endured the most prolonged, deadly air attacks seen in decades. After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Trump's intervention, the president's warning Tuesday likely also showed him the limits to US support, Todman said. Trump hailed his intervention as a monumental success, although critics have long warned that an attack could make Iran rush, more clandestinely, to a nuclear bomb. While Trump claimed Iran's nuclear program was "obliterated," a classified report found that the US bombing did not destroy the core parts of the three nuclear sites, according to CNN and The New York Times. Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said it's too early to know if the ceasefire would hold, either. He said that Gulf Arab powers, led by well-connected Qatar, did the hard work of quiet diplomacy as they sought a return to calm in their region. "Trump vocally used his troll power to try to restrain the actions of Israel and Iran, but that matters less compared with the role that these countries continuously play," Katulis said of Gulf Arab states. Katulis, who worked on the Middle East for former president Bill Clinton, said the Trump administration's tactical military operations, combined with "a heavy dose of strategic communications" confused Americans and global actors alike "about what it is we're actually trying to get done." One area where Trump's diplomacy had clear -- if short-term -- benefits was at home. A prolonged US military campaign "had the potential to really fracture President Trump's own base of support," said Jonathan Panikoff, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. But now, "my guess is the majority of his MAGA and other Republican base will stay relatively unified, even if they were unthrilled in some quarters," he said. While traditional hawks of Trump's Republican Party largely cheered the Iran strikes, they were widely but not universally denounced by rival Democrats. Annelle Sheline, who resigned from the State Department to protest policies under former president Joe Biden and is now at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said it was critical for Trump to enforce the ceasefire. She noted Israel has bombed Lebanon and Gaza during truces, saying Netanyahu believed he enjoyed "America's unconditional support." "Trump demonstrated that he can rein in Israel when he chooses to do so. Now he must do the same to insist on a ceasefire in Gaza," she said. A view of the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran after US military strikes AFP The rubble of a destroyed building in Tel Aviv after an Iranian strike that hit a residential neighborhood during the 12-day conflict AFP
Asharq Al-Awsat
21-03-2025
- Politics
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Washington ‘Drags' Tehran to Negotiations as Military Option Remains on the Table
The administration of US President Donald Trump is intensifying pressure on Iranian authorities to adopt a clearer stance and to 'drag' them into direct negotiations, without ruling out military options. While attention is focused on the US administration's pressure and its potential success in curbing Iran, the latter may counter Trump by leveraging 'international and regional cards,' according to an American researcher. Earlier, Axios reported that President Trump's message to Iran set a two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear deal, warning of consequences if the offer is rejected and Iran continues its nuclear program. An American official and two sources familiar with the message told Axios that "Trump does not want open-ended negotiations with the Iranians." Trump's National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, urged Iran to abandon all elements of its nuclear program, including missiles, armament, and uranium enrichment, or face a full range of other consequences. While the White House has not officially confirmed a deadline for Tehran, Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, suggested that Trump wants Iran's leadership to focus their thinking on taking a stance and moving seriously toward the negotiating table. 'Iran is facing critical decisions regarding its nuclear program and influence in the Middle East, while the Trump administration is pushing (by setting the deadline) for a clearer response than Iran has given so far,' Katulis told Asharq Al-Awsat. According to Katulis, military action against Iran remains a possibility, but Trump's approach toward Iran is still unclear. For his part, Patrick Clawson, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, believes Trump wants to demonstrate his ability to reach agreements on Ukraine, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran, while Biden has been unable to do so. Clawson told Asharq Al-Awsat, 'In each case, Trump has said: 'Make a deal or you'll pay a heavy price,' and for Iran, the 'heavy price' will become clear by the summer.'
Yahoo
14-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump's threats to pull aid if Egypt, Jordan don't accept Palestinians could lead to new alliances, experts say
Despite President Donald Trump's push for the forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza -- a move that, if carried out, would be a violation of international law that some experts and U.S. allies have called ethnic cleansing -- he is facing significant pushback from allies and states in the region. There is "zero possibility" that Palestinians will be forcibly displaced from Gaza and into Jordan and Egypt, one expert told ABC News. "I see no scenario where this happens," Brian Katulis, a senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Middle East Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, told ABC News. "This is their home. They've endured so much to stay in their home, even if their home -- literal homes, family homes -- have been destroyed." "It's a model that just won't work in today's Middle East," Katulis said, referring to the forced displacement of Palestinians. MORE: Trump sanctions against ICC could 'erode international rule of law,' court warns "The risk is that [this] comes at a very uncertain time with the ceasefire and hostage release deal on thin ice, and it actually serves to distract from the important work of trying to keep that process moving forward -- to get hostages released and much-needed aid into the people ... and to actually try to move forward to something that is realistic," Katulis said. Trump at one point threatened to withdraw aid to Egypt and Jordan if they didn't agree to take in Palestinians, though less than 24 hours later, he said, "I don't have to threaten that, I don't think. I think we're above that." "The point of this is to ostensibly force Egypt and Jordan to accept all of the Palestinians currently living in the Gaza Strip, so they can engage, so the U.S. can annex the territory. I think it's safe to say it's a non-starter for the Saudis," Daniel Drezner, a professor of international politics at Tufts University's Fletcher School, told ABC News. "The Jordanians, in particular, need the money. They're not oil rich, and same with Egypt, but in some ways the expectation would be that if Trump actually threatened to cut them off, they would likely turn first to Saudi Arabia and the Emiratis," Drezner said. Arab nations quickly rejected Trump's proposal to forcibly displace Palestinians and relocate them in neighboring states, with several calling it a hard line. "The Foreign Ministry affirms that Saudi Arabia's position on the establishment of a Palestinian state is firm and unwavering. HRH Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister clearly and unequivocally reaffirmed this stance," Saudi Arabia said last week, just hours after Trump called for the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. MORE: Hamas says it will release hostages as planned on Saturday As much as a bind Jordan is in, it is unlikely that it would accept anything along the lines of what Trump proposed, Drezner said, adding the proposal is worse than losing the $1.5 billion in annual aid that it receives from the U.S. "The question is the extent to which the Saudis are willing to bankroll both the Jordanians and the Egyptians," Drezner said. "Pay attention to how the Gulf states are reacting to all this, because they're the ones that are simultaneously most likely to be able to resist Trump's pressures, and also it will send a regional signal to Egypt and Jordan as to what their options are," Drezner said. After Trump's comments, Egypt expressed its support for the legitimate and inalienable rights of the Palestinian people, calling for the need for a two-state solution and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. As Trump continued to double down on forcing out the Palestinians, Egyptian President Abdelfatah El Sisi announced he will indefinitely postpone his plan to visit Trump at the White House. According to Saudi-owned Al Arabiya News, Sisi said he won't attend any White House talks if the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza is on the agenda. "They're probably trying to figure out how do they reposition themselves in light of Trump's incendiary remarks, because they come directly at odds with Egypt's own positions on this issue and its national security interests. And I don't think they want to be put in any sort of position to actually directly challenge Trump right now until they assess," Katulis said. "[Egypt]'s security aid from the U.S. is part of a package that came out of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty. And if Trump wants to play games with that, he's actually going to undercut a lot of America's long-standing traditional security relationships in the region," Katulis said. Egypt also announced it plans to host a meeting with Arab states in Cairo later this month where they will discuss a counterproposal. After meeting with Trump, King Abdullah of Jordan said in a statement he "reiterated Jordan's steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. This is the unified Arab position. Rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians and addressing the dire humanitarian situation should be the priority for all." Trump appeared to walk back his threat of withdrawing aid after his meeting this week with King Abdullah resulted in the news that Jordan would take in 2,000 sick Palestinian children for treatment. "This is a replay of what we've seen with regard to threatening Canada and Mexico [with tariffs] -- it's the shining orb strategy. It turns out if you offer Trump like a pretty gaudy but not terribly significant concession, he'll back down," Drezner said. MORE: Egypt to offer Trump Gaza reconstruction plan without Palestinian displacement "Jordan can never agree to this -- to Trump's proposal -- that would be the end of the regime. And that's the fundamental thing that I assume someone must have told Donald Trump," Drezner said. In addition to opposing the forced displacement of Palestinians, Jordan and Egypt also have strains on their economies and taking in millions of refugees could potentially produce more economic and security challenges. For the last 20 years, Jordan has faced an influx of refugees from Iraq and Syria, which has strained their economy and their social fabric, according to Katulis. Egypt's economy has also faced strains, with the Egyptian pound being depreciated several times in recent years. According to the World Food Programme, from January 2016 to January 2025, the Egyptian pound was devalued by 84.5% relative to the U.S. dollar -- a move that governments use to increase its competitiveness or trade balance. And the U.S. dollar appreciated by 543.8% relative to the Egyptian pound during that same time period, based on the official exchange rate, according to the World Food Programme. Taking in all Palestinians living in Gaza could also pull other countries into a confrontation with Israel, Drezner noted. "There is no scenario whereby the Palestinians that are displaced are not going to want to return. Essentially, you're introducing the possibility of violent non-state actors to operate within your territory," Drezner said. While Egypt and Jordan are most likely to look to Gulf states for alternate sources of aid, other international actors could also fill a gap created by the U.S. if Trump follows through on his threats. "I'm not sure Russia is really in all that strong a position, particularly in the Middle East, since they lost their last port [when the regime fell in Syria] and we just saw what happened to Bashar Al Assad. I'm not sure that [Vladimir Putin]'s necessarily a reliable benefactor," Drezner said. "It would make much more sense to make a pivot towards China, in no small part because, among other things, China actually has reasons to want to be involved in the region, given their various energy demands," Drezner said. But, Jordan and Egypt rely on military supplies from the U.S. and the West. "The longer-term issue is that you can argue that the militaries in both Jordan and Egypt are a little bit stuck in that they rely primarily on U.S. weaponry. So to engage in a radical pivot means that in some ways you're also weakening your own coercive apparatus at the same time," Drezner said. It would take time before the militaries would be prepared to use weaponry from a different source, and weapons from another source would likely also be incompatible with their existing military stock, according to Drezner. "It would be hard to pivot to either Russia or China as your primary arms manufacturer," Drezner said. Trump's threats to pull aid if Egypt, Jordan don't accept Palestinians could lead to new alliances, experts say originally appeared on
