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Daily Maverick
4 hours ago
- Politics
- Daily Maverick
The pernicious association of coups d'etat as somehow unique to Africa
The word 'coup' has been dropped into the political lexicon of South Africa. The public lexicon, that is… The word, now dropped in public, seems to have provided grist to the mill of Afro-pessimists and those self-assured people who would insist that certain societies are 'not ready for democracy'. During a media briefing on SA's national security strategy for 2024-28, Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni raised the spectre of a coup as part of the deliberations of the security community in government. 'One of the risks is the risk of a coup d'état. There is a potential risk of a coup d'état. We have identified it and put measures [in place] to mitigate against it,' Ntshavheni said. A few things may be discussed about this public statement, and about the idea of coups d'etat. One stand-out thing is that it is somehow an African thing (and it could not possibly be part of the European world with its deep history of democracy) – which simply cranks up the music for those who dance on South Africa's grave. Another, more important issue and potentially dangerous, is a type of stochastic messaging sent out by Minister Ntshavheni and the equally dangerous suggestion that the topic should be avoided. Let us start with the Europe-is-good-and-great notion, and that Africa is prone to coups d'etat. None of what follows justifies or even suggests that coups are necessary. It is, also, not a judgement call on 'good' or 'bad' coups… The mis-education about coups d'etat and democracy in Africa and Europe There is a quite wilful and pernicious association of coups d'etat with Africa as somehow unique to the continent, starting, as it usually does, by ripping it from the multiplicity of contexts that shape post-independence democracy on the continent. Consider the view of Abu-Bakarr Jalloh, an editor from Sierra Leone with the German news service, Deutsche Welle: 'The year 2021 went down in history as the year when military coups returned to Africa. In just a few months, the African continent witnessed dozens of coups and attempted coups in Mali, Guinea, Sudan and Chad. So far, 2022 has been no different. Last week, a military junta took power in Burkina Faso. For people who were around in the '60s, '70s and '80s — the heyday of coups across the continent — it feels a bit like déjà vu.' That last sentence bites. Given, especially, that it comes from a European news platform – as if the rise of the far-right and Nazism in Europe is not 'a bit like déjà vu'. European history of the past 100 years (at least) is pocked by attempted, planned, or actual coups and self-replacement – which basically refers to coups in which the leaders put themselves back in office. Over less than 100 years (since the Spartacus League's attempt to overthrow the Social Democrat-led government in 1919), Germany has had at least 10 coups or attempted/planned coups. The word does, indeed, weigh like ironwood on the imagination of Afropessimists, flagrant racists, Africans in the belly of the beast (paying for their national board and lodging), and those apparently sophisticated types who would have for decades insisted that some societies are not ready for democracy – and have to be saved from themselves. This 'not ready for democracy' claim was reproduced about Russia by (predictably) the Washington Post, and raised in discussions hosted by Eurasianet – a news service that covers the South Caucasus and Central Asia. It is thrown about, mainly in the West, with reference to Iran, and for most of the post-war period, there has been a to-and-fro over Africa's apparent incompatibility with democracy. There is nothing apophenic about seeing a pattern in all of this. Hint: It's always about the enemies of the West. Almost always, actually. There are among us Africans, too, who would have us believe that democracy tends to fail in Africa, as Aribiah David Attoe, of Wits University, wrote last year – as if democracy is one thing and one thing only. Let's set aside, for now, just what democracy actually is in the life world of people, and whether it is usually stable and progressive. A very cursory look at Europe shows that that continent, too (never mind Jolloh's suggestion that Africa is synonymous with coups d'etat), has had very many coups – at least over the past 100 years. There have, for instance, been at least 10 actual or attempted coups d'etat in Spain over the past 100 years – since the removal of Primo de Rivera on 15 September 1923. Early in the last century, Austria had a handful of attempted coups or 'self-removals' – and that famous July Putsch of 1934. French settlers in Algeria staged a putsch of the generals to prevent Algerian independence, because the settlers claimed that Algeria was part of France. Let's turn to Greece, which provides a segue to democracy, where we are reminded of extended periods of dictatorial rule over the course of the 20th century, most notably by the 4th of August Metaxas regime and the 21st of April military junta of 1967. That country which 'gave the world democracy' has been through about 19 coups d'etat in the 20th century. There is no need to look very far for evidence. Consider this; over four years (between 1924 and 1928), Greece, the purported birthplace of modern democracy, went through 10 prime ministers; two presidents were deposed and one resigned, with 'numerous military coups' – the most brutal of which was that of Theodoros Pangalos. The dude installed himself. It helps, then, to have a more complete appreciation for the extent of military coups around the world, including the civilised Europeans and their centuries of democracy and freedom, when compared with Africa's barely seven decades of independence – with the multiplicity of conditionalities and lingering chains to the European metropoles, how these have constrained democracy on the continent, and limited the abilities of African countries ' to make policy decisions and … ownership of national development strategies '. The dangers of stochastic messaging Minister Ntshavheni does not get away with her statement easily. The problem with what seemed like an honest and open statement about the likelihood or the real or actual threat of a coup in South Africa is that it is somewhat of a stochastic messaging which, in lay terms, puts ideas in the heads of the populists who were behind the violence and destruction of July 2021. Now, we should be careful. The state can choose to never mention the word 'coup', and leave it underground, so to speak. Or reference can be made to it in public. There's a downside to both. Let's get some definitional stuff out of the way. There is a danger, always, of messaging that works through suggestion or implication as opposed to explicit directives. Donald Trump's speech on 6 January 2021 is a good example of stochastic messaging, and has been described as ' ambiguously inciting '. At Trump's 'Stop the Steal' rally, before an armed crowd stormed the US legislature, he gave a speech urging the crowd to 'fight like hell'. Julius Malema is a better example. Malema has, on various occasions, said things (like) 'we are revolutionaries; revolutionaries are prepared to fight; revolutionaries are prepared to shed blood', and at some point he brandished a firearm. To his audience and followers who feel aggrieved and who believe they have been stripped of 'economic freedom', voice and/or access to power, all these statements may amount to an exhortation to violence – without Malema actually telling people to go and destroy things or shoot people. I am not a great supporter of censorship. I have always contested censorship, and I have the emotional, mental and physical scars to prove it. Kinda. I do, however, accept that there may be times when the state cannot share information with the public because any such exposure may jeopardise policy or bargaining processes, or, for example, throw a spanner in the works of criminal investigations. At best, government officials, or anyone for that matter, ought to know that words matter, and in the case of South Africa, there was a spike in sales of magnifying glasses and fine-tooth combs after 27 April 1994. And, the people behind the July 2021 unrest may pose an actual (or imagined) threat to the state. They ought to know, also, that context modulates the influence of action; we live in a period of increased public dissatisfaction; increased distrust in the ability of the state to provide the definitive of public goods, security and protection of the public; and the idealistic populism (not all populism is bad) led by ethno-nationalists of a particular kind, tribalists and nativists, and political leaders bearing grudges. In this multiplicity of contexts, of loose lips, when do you criminalise public statements or public incitement? Acts of violence and destruction, and liability for public statements, rest heavier on the state/government than they do on political parties or individuals in public. That the government's security community has investigated all threats to the state (actual or perceived) is necessarily a good thing. That a Cabinet minister has come out and mentioned the likelihood or possibility (not probability) of a coup d'etat is up for discussion. What is necessary, at the least, is to shake off those terrible confirmation biases and prejudices; notions that Africa is the home of coups d'etat; or that Africans are not ready for, or are 'too immature' for democracy. Democracy is not stable, nor static. For the record, states that claim to have been democracies for centuries have dark sides that they would prefer to conceal. varying degrees of 'democratic backsliding' in as many as 40 countries around the world – including the United States. DM
IOL News
3 days ago
- Business
- IOL News
Greylist exit in sight: SA braces for make-or-break Financial Action Task Force inspection
South Africa is set to take the final step toward exiting the Financial Action Task Force greylist Image: File photo South Africa is set to take the final step toward exiting the Financial Action Task Force greylist, with an international assessment team scheduled to arrive in the country next week for an on-site evaluation. The FATF Africa Joint Group will visit South Africa on July 29 and 30, 2025, to verify progress made in strengthening the country's anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing systems. IOL previously reported that the country was placed on the greylist due to its failure to adhere to the FATF's requirements in dealing with anti-money laundering (AML) and combating financing of terrorism (CFT). This visit is the final requirement before the FATF decides at its October plenary whether the country can be removed from the greylist. Since being greylisted in 2023, the country has worked hard to complete 22 action items required by the FATF These include improving investigations and prosecutions of serious money laundering and terrorist financing cases, enhancing transparency around company ownership and enforcing stronger penalties for violations. Earlier this year, the watchdog also confirmed South Africa had substantially completed the Action Plan, allowing the on-site visit to proceed. 'At its June 2025 Plenary, the FATF made the initial determination that South Africa has substantially completed its action plan and warrants an on-site assessment to verify that the implementation of AML/CFT reforms has begun and is being sustained, and that the necessary political commitment remains in place to sustain implementation in the future,' FATF said. During a media briefing last week, Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni spoke about the upcoming FATF inspection, saying it was important for the country to be removed from the list and expressed hope that South Africans would behave. "The FATF inspection date, they are coming on the 29th and 30th of July 2025, so I hope South Africans will behave, the visitors will be here, we need to get out of the greylisting, it's important for all of us that we," Ntshavheni said. IOL Business [email protected] Get your news on the go, click here to join the IOL News WhatsApp channel
eNCA
6 days ago
- Politics
- eNCA
Could coup d'état comments impact SA's image?
JOHANNESBURG - This week in Cape Town, Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni made a bold revelation, warning of the risk of a possible coup d'état in South Africa. Unveiling National Security Strategy and National Intelligence Estimate documents, she assured the nation that preventative measures are in place, and praised the role of the SANDF and police services.
The Citizen
6 days ago
- Politics
- The Citizen
A coup? Here's what makes SA most vulnerable to attacks
The NSS stated that a disregard for the state's authority was growing, fuelled by the malicious use of communication platforms. A National Security Strategy (NSS) document published this week gives an overview of the greatest dangers posed to South Africa's stability. Threats of a possible coup d'état were raised by Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni as the country still reels from allegations made by a senior police official. Neither Ntshavheni nor the NSS document elaborate on any specific groups which could carry out a coup, amplifying calls for the minister to furnish the nation with proof of her claims. SA 'remains stable' The redacted NSS document released on 15 July stated that domestically, the primary risks were those that undermined the state's functionality and the physical vulnerability of citizens. The report listed organised crime, gangsterism and illegal migration as breeding grounds of instability — all tied together with the consistent use of illegal firearms. 'Illegal migrants create 'no-go' areas in South Africa that violate the sovereignty of the country and undermine the authority of the state. 'The threat to socio-economic stability is caused by, among others, violent community protests as well as instability in the labour, transport and education sectors,' read the NSS. The NSS stated that a disregard for the state's authority was growing, fuelled by the malicious use of communication platforms. 'In order to destabilise the social and political situation in South Africa, inaccurate information is distributed, including deliberately false reports about the threat of terrorist acts,' read the document. However, it concluded that 'South Africa remains a stable country', despite the number of internal social ills. African and global threats Outside South Africa's borders, threats to the Southern African Development Community primarily stemmed from poverty. 'Poverty and underdevelopment are the overriding human security challenge. Violence and crime feature strongly in the region as both a cause and symptom of underdevelopment,' the NSS states. 'The level and extent of terrorism as an asymmetric threat is contingent on the extent to which major demographic, socio-economic, developmental and governance issues are addressed,' it explained. This leads to a continental spread that sees the 'expansion of ungoverned and ungovernable spaces, transnational militancy, organised crime and trafficking'. Globally, the digital age has removed the geographical limits of crimes, leaving nations open to international crime, terrorism, sabotage and trafficking networks. However, Deputy Minister of Defence Bantu Holomisa said on Thursday that coups were not discussed on social media. Holomisa was one of the last leaders to successfully stage a coup south of the Limpopo when he took control of the Transkei civilian government in December 1987 as chief of the Transkei Defence Force. 'We are not expecting conventional warfare in South Africa. The major threat I foresee is civil disobedience, where we are asked by the police to assist and protect them,' said Holomisa while conducting an oversight visit at 1 Military Hospital. Digital insurgency Digital communications have also been highlighted by a European body as a platform for plotting social unrest and insurgency. A study by the German Council for Foreign Relations (GCFR) states that insurgent groups were most likely to use multiple online platforms to mobilise. 'There is a playbook available to plan a coup based on digitally maximising on- and offline capabilities to amplify a cause and push for mobilisation,' states the GCFR. However, no group or sector of society has been identified as having the resources or organisational capacity to pose a threat to the South African government. This has led Ntshavheni's opponents to insist that the minister or the security cluster reveal the source of her coup claims. 'She must tell us who, what and where,' said uMkhonto weSizwe (MP) party spokesperson Nhlamulo Ndhlela. 'She has already told the public, now she must give us details and stop politicking,' he concluded. NOW READ: 'A coup is not discussed on social media': Holomisa says no need to press panic buttons
The Citizen
6 days ago
- Politics
- The Citizen
Sisulu Foundation slams Ntshavheni's ‘coup' remarks as 'deeply irresponsible'
In a shocking revelation, Ntshavheni claimed that the security cluster had identified potential risks of a coup in the country. The Walter and Albertina Sisulu Foundation has criticised Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni's claim that South Africa's security services had detected a potential coup d'état. The foundation said such remarks are 'deeply irresponsible, dangerous, and, in the current political climate, reckless in the extreme.' Coup In a shocking revelation on Tuesday, Ntshavheni claimed that the security cluster had identified potential risks of a coup in the country. Ntshavheni said the State Security Agency (SSA) and all relevant law enforcement agencies are actively working to prevent any uprisings or violent protests, similar to those seen during the July 2021 unrest. 'Irresponsible' The Walter and Albertina Sisulu Foundation slammed Ntshavheni, saying the coup claims are 'irresponsible, dangerous and damaging to South Africa's democracy.' 'To utter such claims on the parliamentary record—without presenting evidence, without public briefing, and without accountability—is not merely careless; it verges on fearmongering by executive design. 'Let's be clear: this statement was made in the immediate aftermath of the suspension, on paid leave, of Police Minister Senzo Mchunu, a key ally of President Ramaphosa, whose name has become entangled in serial allegations of political interference and suppression of forensic investigations,' the foundation claimed. ALSO READ: Are we safe? Ntshavheni says security cluster detected potential risks of a coup [VIDEO] 'Damning' The foundation claimed the timing of Ntshavheni's statement is 'damning.' 'It arrives just as public scrutiny of the president's handling of the police crisis reaches fever pitch. The appointment of a non-MP acting police minister (within his powers), the creation of yet another judicial commission (the fifth of his presidency), and the president's silence on Phala Phala have already enraged citizens. No wonder trust is collapsing. 'Ntshavheni's coup narrative functions as a classic deflection tactic—to distract public and parliamentary attention from real accountability questions. Instead of answers, we get an unverified claim of a coup attempt, floated in the most public forum of the land, then immediately dropped with no follow-up.' It said. Parliament must act The foundation said Parliament has a duty to act against Ntshavheni. Ntshavheni must be held accountable for her statements. If she has the intelligence to substantiate her remarks, she must provide it. 'If she does not, then her words should be withdrawn—and censured. The legislature must reclaim its oversight function and reassert the supremacy of constitutional order over political theatre,' the foundation said. The foundation said South Africans have a right to 'demand better: truth, transparency, and constitutional accountability. Not paranoia, not spin, not distraction. And certainly not ministers weaponising fear from the floor of Parliament.' ALSO READ: 'Ramaphosa will go down in history as one of the most useless presidents' – analyst
