A coup? Here's what makes SA most vulnerable to attacks
A National Security Strategy (NSS) document published this week gives an overview of the greatest dangers posed to South Africa's stability.
Threats of a possible coup d'état were raised by Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni as the country still reels from allegations made by a senior police official.
Neither Ntshavheni nor the NSS document elaborate on any specific groups which could carry out a coup, amplifying calls for the minister to furnish the nation with proof of her claims.
SA 'remains stable'
The redacted NSS document released on 15 July stated that domestically, the primary risks were those that undermined the state's functionality and the physical vulnerability of citizens.
The report listed organised crime, gangsterism and illegal migration as breeding grounds of instability — all tied together with the consistent use of illegal firearms.
'Illegal migrants create 'no-go' areas in South Africa that violate the sovereignty of the country and undermine the authority of the state.
'The threat to socio-economic stability is caused by, among others, violent community protests as well as instability in the labour, transport and education sectors,' read the NSS.
The NSS stated that a disregard for the state's authority was growing, fuelled by the malicious use of communication platforms.
'In order to destabilise the social and political situation in South Africa, inaccurate information is distributed, including deliberately false reports about the threat of terrorist acts,' read the document.
However, it concluded that 'South Africa remains a stable country', despite the number of internal social ills.
African and global threats
Outside South Africa's borders, threats to the Southern African Development Community primarily stemmed from poverty.
'Poverty and underdevelopment are the overriding human security challenge. Violence and crime feature strongly in the region as both a cause and symptom of underdevelopment,' the NSS states.
'The level and extent of terrorism as an asymmetric threat is contingent on the extent to which major demographic, socio-economic, developmental and governance issues are addressed,' it explained.
This leads to a continental spread that sees the 'expansion of ungoverned and ungovernable spaces, transnational militancy, organised crime and trafficking'.
Globally, the digital age has removed the geographical limits of crimes, leaving nations open to international crime, terrorism, sabotage and trafficking networks.
However, Deputy Minister of Defence Bantu Holomisa said on Thursday that coups were not discussed on social media.
Holomisa was one of the last leaders to successfully stage a coup south of the Limpopo when he took control of the Transkei civilian government in December 1987 as chief of the Transkei Defence Force.
'We are not expecting conventional warfare in South Africa. The major threat I foresee is civil disobedience, where we are asked by the police to assist and protect them,' said Holomisa while conducting an oversight visit at 1 Military Hospital.
Digital insurgency
Digital communications have also been highlighted by a European body as a platform for plotting social unrest and insurgency.
A study by the German Council for Foreign Relations (GCFR) states that insurgent groups were most likely to use multiple online platforms to mobilise.
'There is a playbook available to plan a coup based on digitally maximising on- and offline capabilities to amplify a cause and push for mobilisation,' states the GCFR.
However, no group or sector of society has been identified as having the resources or organisational capacity to pose a threat to the South African government.
This has led Ntshavheni's opponents to insist that the minister or the security cluster reveal the source of her coup claims.
'She must tell us who, what and where,' said uMkhonto weSizwe (MP) party spokesperson Nhlamulo Ndhlela.
'She has already told the public, now she must give us details and stop politicking,' he concluded.
NOW READ: 'A coup is not discussed on social media': Holomisa says no need to press panic buttons
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