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See - Sada Elbalad
14-05-2025
- Business
- See - Sada Elbalad
New Yalu River Bridge : China-North Korea Conflicts Hidden Beneath the River
By a North Korean Diplomat Defector (Anonymity) Located on the border between China and North Korea, the New Yalu River Bridge has been completed for over 10 years, yet it remains unopened and abandoned. However, since last February, a customs building has been constructed on the North Korean side, and construction and maintenance of the surrounding infrastructure have been underway, indicating movement towards its opening. This change implies more than just the resumption of trade. The construction of the New Yalu River Bridge was a project led by China under the pretext of expanding China-North Korea trade. When China first proposed building the bridge in 2006, North Korea turned down the proposal due to a lack of actual domestic demand as well as concerns about China's potential military use of the bridge, specifically a possible large-scale Chinese military advance into the North in the event of a contingency. In 2010, China once again proposed to not only build the bridge but also to fully support the construction of overall infrastructure on the North Korean side including customs facilities, roads, and railways at no cost. This time, Kim Jong-il accepted the deal outright, intending to use it as a showcase for his achievements. The construction of the bridge was completed in 2014, but China did not keep its promise regarding the infrastructure investment for North Korea, citing budget overruns as the reason. In 2015, North Korea selected the infrastructure construction in this area as one of the '100 construction targets' and attempted to attract private investment from China to complete the construction, but it fell through due to China's uncooperative stance. As a result, the New Yalu River Bridge has remained a symbol of the lack of trust between China and North Korea, unable to fulfill its intended function for over a decade. Given this background, what do the recent construction works imply? While they could be interpreted as a signal for the restoration of the strained China-North Korea relations, resulting from the North's closer alignment with Russia, behind them lies the sharp strategic intent of both sides. First, China will aim to regain its strategic influence over North Korea and promote the stabilization of its northern region. Rumors that China is funding the construction costs of the customs facilities on the North Korean side currently underway support this assessment. On the other hand, North Korea's primary goal will likely be securing economic benefits through expanded trade with China, based on its confidence in its advanced nuclear and missile capabilities. In fact, the relationship between the two countries, despite its outward appearance of a 'blood alliance,' is marked by a history of distrust and containment. When China established diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1992, North Korea felt an intense sense of betrayal, and Kim Jong-il was so enraged that he even ordered to review the possibility of establishing diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Also, during the Arduous March in the North in the mid-1990s, China, contrary to North Korea's expectations of economic support, deployed elite troops of the People's Liberation Army to the border region. This not only represented a simple economic disregard, but also deepened political and military distrust between the two. Even under the Kim Jong-un regime, North Korea has been openly expressing anti-Chinese sentiment, referring to China as 'the Chinese' in a derogatory manner in internal documents. This reveals a deep-seated structural distrust that goes beyond mere emotional outbursts. China, too, has long viewed North Korea not as a strategic partner, but as a subject for 'management' and 'control,' perceiving it as a potential risk factor. Recently, North Korea has been expanding its political, military, and economic ties with Russia, effectively reinforcing its shift away from China in its foreign policy. On top of that, the possibility of a US-North Korea summit being discussed adds to China's concern, making it believe that uncertainty is growing in the China-North Korea border. If North Korea were to break free from China's sphere of influence through improved relations with the US, the China-North Korea border could become a structural vulnerability for China's security. Amid escalating military tensions regarding Taiwan, the uncertainty in the northern region poses a risk that China cannot afford to bear. In this context, the recent movements around the New Yalu River Bridge may be China's strategic move that even takes into account the possibility of its physical intervention in North Korea. This bridge is not just a simple logistics infrastructure, but a 'strategic penetration asset' that could be used as a pathway for establishing a pro-China regime in Pyongyang or deploying direct military force in the event of a contingency such as the collapse of the Kim Jong-un regime. The reason why this bridge has not been used until now may also be due to China's management of it as a 'strategic reserve asset' rather than a regular trade route. Ultimately, the resumption of infrastructure construction on the North Korean side of the New Yalu River Bridge is not just a signal for the resumption of trade. While the construction is apparently being led by North Korea, it is highly likely to reflect China's intention to reorganize its complex relationship with North Korea, and reinforce its strategic influence over Pyongyang behind the scenes. North Korea has deliberately delayed the opening of the New Yalu River Bridge since the early stages of discussion, aware and fearful of China's hidden intentions. However, recent trends seem to indicate Kim Jong-un's confidence in maintaining the regime based on nuclear power, as well as the urgency of resolving economic difficulties. 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Korea Herald
28-03-2025
- Politics
- Korea Herald
International community doubted North Korea's future after founder Kim Il-sung's death: dossier
Seoul's Foreign Ministry on Friday declassified several diplomatic dossiers from 1994, revealing that the international community expressed doubt about North Korea's future after the sudden death of the regime's founder, Kim Il-sung. The death of Kim Il-sung on July 8, 1994, sent the international diplomatic community scrambling to predict the future of the reclusive state, as well as who would be the next in line to rule, the dossier read. Kim died of a heart attack at the age of 82, after ruling North Korea for 46 years. Most Washington officials expressed skepticism about the North's future under the leadership of Kim Jong-il, Kim Il-sung's eldest son and his successor. Stanley Roth, who was senior director for Asian affairs at the US National Security Council at the time, said that Kim Jong-il 'lacks charisma' compared to his father and is expected to face 'several challenges' due to the prolonged economic hardships in his country. He made the remarks during a meeting with Ban Ki-moon, who was then a minister at the South Korean Embassy in Washington. Roth added that speculation at the time — that Kim Jong-il had taken a hardline stance on nuclear issues — was true, and that Kim's stance would prevent the North from returning to the negotiation table. Weeks before Kim Il-sung's death, former US President Jimmy Carter visited North Korea and met with the country's founder. The trip paved the way for a bilateral nuclear deal between the US and the North. Carter's visit to the reclusive nation later culminated in the Agreed Framework, signed by the US and the North in October 1994, in which Pyongyang pledged to freeze its illicit plutonium weapons program and halt construction on nuclear reactors. The US, in exchange, pledged to provide sanctions relief and several other forms of aid. Roth's predictions came true nearly a decade later, when Pyongyang withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003 and tested its first nuclear weapon on October 9, 2006. Walter Mondale, who served as vice president under Carter, called Kim Jong-il 'goofy,' 'childish' and unfit to lead the regime, according to the dossiers. Washington was divided on its assessment of Kim Jong-il, according to then-South Korean Ambassador to the US Han Seung-soo. The State Department was expecting him to adopt a policy similar to his father's, while the Central Intelligence Agency took note of his 'unpredictable' and 'extremist' characteristics. Russia and China, now key partners of the North, took contrasting steps in dealing with Kim Il-sung's death in 1994, according to the dossier. Moscow officials, who did not closely engage with Pyongyang, due to their focus on reforms happening in their own country, painted a skeptical outlook for the regime. China, meanwhile, took steps to back Kim, due to close relations between Kim Il-sung and then-Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, the dossiers read. The North Korea founder personally asked Deng to look after his son, and Beijing would honor that request as long as Deng is in power, a Chinese Foreign Ministry official told Seoul at the time. Mexico's Foreign Ministry had to send out official notices to the diplomatic missions in Mexico City regarding Kim Il-sung's passing, which drew complaints from the South Korean Embassy there. The ministry had to explain that the North Korean Embassy had requested help as they were short-staffed and lacked photocopiers. The news of Kim Il-sung's death spread confusion at North Korean embassies around the world. The North Korean Embassy in Hanoi protested against a Vietnamese news agency's reports of their leader's sudden death, calling it an 'absurd fabrication.' The Vietnamese news agency eventually had to submit news reports from the Korean Central News Agency, Pyongyang's state media, as proof. The announcement came just 17 days before what would have been the first inter-Korean summit.


South China Morning Post
28-03-2025
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
‘Goofy': declassified 1994 files show how world powers doubted North Korea's Kim Jong-il
Newly declassified diplomatic files from Seoul have revealed that major world powers were deeply concerned about North Korean leader Kim Il-sung's succession plan after his sudden death in 1994, with one US diplomat calling his heir Kim Jong-il 'goofy' and a Russian expert predicting he would lose control of the country within two years. Advertisement The documents, released by South Korea 's Foreign Ministry on Friday, detail how officials worldwide rushed to interpret Kim Il-sung's demise and assess his son's ability to govern. Walter Mondale, a former US vice-president who was serving as ambassador to Japan at the time, was quoted in the files as saying: '[Kim Jong-il] seems a bit goofy and childish, and not very good as a leader.' The files show that experts from Russia, which was distancing itself from Pyongyang at the time as it navigated post-Communist reforms, also expressed doubts over the younger Kim's ability to rule North Korea. North Korea's then-leader Kim Il-sung (L) and his son Kim Jong-il (R) inspecting a soccer ground in Pyongyang in 1992. Photo: AFP 'After about six months of Kim Jong-il's regime, the military will begin to intervene in politics in earnest,' a Russian scholar with experience of working in Pyongyang was quoted as saying.


Korea Herald
20-02-2025
- Politics
- Korea Herald
Born in Pyongyang, Kim Jong-un's praise song played at 8 years old, say relatives
New book reveals Kim Jong-un's birthplace for first time, based on interviews with aunt and uncle Born in 1984 in northern Pyongyang, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was secretly anointed as the future heir to his father, Kim Jong-il, at the age of 8, according to the statements of Kim's aunt and her husband, as detailed in a newly published book. The book also discloses that the initiation of his hereditary succession was outwardly marked by the airing of a glorification song dedicated to him in 1992. Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for Korean Peninsula Strategy at the Sejong Institute, has published a book "Kim Jong-un We Don't Know" to shed light on the untold story of North Korea's elusive leader. Cheong specifically discloses Kim Jong-un's birthplace for the first time, along with his year of birth and when he was secretly chosen as the successor to Kim Jong-il — critical information that has for so long has remained unclear. During a book launch event at the Sejong Institute in Seoul on Thursday, Cheong explained that the disclosures came from multiple interviews with Kim Jong-un's maternal aunt, Ko Yong-suk, and his uncle, Ri Kang, in Washington in March 2021. Ko and Ri were closely connected to Kim Jong-il and a young Kim Jong-un before they decided to flee North Korea in 1998. Their own son was born in the same year as Kim Jong-un. 'Kim Jong-un was born at Special Residence No. 2, located in the Samsok district, in the northeastern part of Pyongyang, on the north bank of the Taedong River. The guesthouse had a medical clinic and a delivery room,' the book details, based on testimonies from Ko and Ri. Ko and Ri say Kim was born in 1984 and lived in the home of his birth until around 1986, when he moved to Special Residence No. 1 in central Pyongyang. It was only after Kim Jong-un turned 3 or 4 years old that his mother, Ko Yong-hui, told her father, Ko Kyong-taek, that she was living with Kim Jong-il. Speaking at the event, Cheong explained that Kim Jong-un's move to central Pyongyang was closely tied to the power shift between his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, and his father, Kim Jong-il, marking 1986 as a crucial turning point. 'By around 1985, Kim Jong-il's influence had begun to surpass Kim Il-sung's, effectively shifting the regime into a dual leadership structure. By 1986, Kim Jong-il's power has surpassed that of Kim Il-sung, which means no longer needing to defer to his father,' Cheong said. 'It was around this time that he moved to central Pyongyang with Ko Yong-hui, the woman he cherished most. From that point on, Ko Yong-hui effectively took on the role of his de facto first lady. Until now, the exact moment when Ko Yong-hui secured her status as Kim Jong-il's official partner had remained unclear." The book adds, 'Kim Jong-un was designated as Kim Jong-il's successor much earlier than widely assumed by the outside world.' According to testimonies from Ri and Ko, 'Kim Jong-un's praise song 'Footsteps' was performed in front of Kim Jong-il's key confidants at his drinking gathering on Kim Jong-un's eighth birthday,' the book read. 'At the time, Ri Kang directly heard Kim Jong-il say, 'From now on, my successor will be my Jong-un.' He also heard the same remark multiple times afterward,' the book read. 'When Kim Jong-un's uncle questioned whether it was too early to establish him as the successor, Kim Jong-il responded, 'Because he takes after me.' Kim Jong-il repeatedly emphasized Kim Jong-un's boldness while stating that Kim Jong-chol was too gentle to be a successor.' Cheong also claims Kim Jong-un had already secured a superior position over other power elites and was exercising sole leadership before Kim Jong-il's death in December 2011, based on high-level intelligence and posthumously released footage of Kim Jong-il from the North's Korean Central Television. In the book, Cheong asserts that Kim Jong-un does not have a son and that Kim Ju-ae is his firstborn, based on several individuals who have interacted with Kim Jong-un — among them Joseph Terwilliger, an American professor who has taught in Pyongyang and who cradled Kim Ju-ae in his arms when she was a baby.


South China Morning Post
18-02-2025
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
‘Solemn will': North Korea's Kim reclaims ancestors' legacy with tomb visit
Published: 8:00am, 18 Feb 2025 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made a rare visit to his ancestors' mausoleum on Sunday, marking the first time in four years he has paid tribute to the tomb on his father's birthday. Analysts suggest the gesture may have been an attempt to reinforce his regime's legitimacy amid growing international calls for it to denuclearise. On Sunday, Kim, accompanied by top military officials and his influential sister, Kim Yo-jong , visited the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun to honour their late father Kim Jong-il, and grandfather Kim Il-sung. The visit coincided with the Day of the Shining Star, a national holiday in North Korea on February 16, Kim Jong-il's birthday. According to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the younger Kim expressed a 'solemn will' to dedicate himself to the 'sacred struggle' for the nation's eternal prosperity, the safety of its people and the promotion of their well-being. He vowed to remain faithful to the revolutionary ideals of both his father and grandfather, whose embalmed bodies are housed at the mausoleum. It marked the first time since 2021 that he had visited the mausoleum on his father's birthday.