Latest news with #KoraphatVorachet
Bangkok Post
29-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Analysts predict tariff of 19-20% on Thai goods
Investors are eagerly monitoring the upcoming US decision on import tariffs for Thai goods, as analysts anticipate a rate in line with regional peers of 19-20%, but not exceeding 25%. Koraphat Vorachet, head of research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), said global trade sentiment improved recently. A breakthrough trade deal between the US and Europe helped ease pressure, with the US agreeing to a 15% tariff rate in exchange for US$750 billion in European gas imports and $600 billion in investment. US President Donald Trump also signalled that global tariff frameworks should not exceed 15-20%, lifting confidence among global investors. "KSS sees a 25% tariff ceiling for Thailand as a potential strategic upside for Thai exporters and foreign direct investment in the country," said Mr Koraphat. A top sector to watch this week is energy, helped by rising oil prices and improved trade sentiment, noted the brokerage. Crude oil prices have rebounded by 2.36% in response to an improved trade outlook, supporting Thai energy stocks, which account for around 10% of total market capitalisation on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). The chemical industry is also showing signs of recovery from a 20-year low, with share prices long trading below tangible book value, noted KSS. Analysts believe the sector may be entering the early stages of a "super-cycle", with PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) flagged as an undervalued candidate in the commodity chemicals space. Supported by the extension of the US-China tariff freeze, Chinese stocks are in play, while banking may benefit from predictions the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its mid-week meeting, said the brokerage. Meanwhile, dividend stocks such as Advanced Info Service (ADVANC) are favoured for stable income returns, according to KSS. The Thai-Cambodian ceasefire significantly eased regional tensions, paving the way for a recovery for stocks with business exposure in Cambodia such as Carabao Group (CBG), which stands to gain from improved trade prospects and a stronger baht. According to Daol Securities, the full details of the US-Thailand tariff framework are expected to be disclosed later this week, the final week before the Aug 1 deadline. "A favourable outcome would likely align Thai tariffs with those of the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam, in the 19-20% range," said the brokerage. InnovestX Securities said the US-China agreement to extend the existing tariff freeze before its expiration on Aug 12 is a positive, with China pledging stricter controls to curb excessive price-cutting. Capital flows have begun shifting away from bonds and into equities amid growing optimism about global trade and continued strong corporate earnings, especially in artificial intelligence-related sectors, said the brokerage. InnovestX shared the consensus view that Thailand will likely reach a trade deal with the US, with tariffs in line with regional peers. Additional tailwinds include expectations for a rate cut by the newly appointed Bank of Thailand governor. While a prolonged Thai-Cambodian conflict could present some downside risks, InnovestX believes any economic impact on Thailand would be limited.
Bangkok Post
28-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Thai equities attract foreigners in July
Foreign investors continued to pour money into Thai equities throughout July, with net inflows exceeding 11 billion baht as the Thai stock market became more attractive due to a weaker dollar and hopes of a favourable outcome from US-Thai trade negotiations, say analysts. Koraphat Vorachet, assistant managing director and head of research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), said foreign fund flows into Asian stock markets remain positive, with clear buying signals seen in South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand. This trend reflects bullish investor sentiment and KSS expects continued net foreign buying across the region for the rest of this month, he said. According to data from SET Smart, foreign investors were net buyers on 11 out of 12 trading days through July 23, bringing total net inflows to more than 11 billion baht for the month. However, on a year-to-date basis foreign investors recorded net outflows of 67.5 billion baht, while Thai retail investors remained net buyers with more than 93 billion baht. KSS recommends focusing on large-cap stocks in the spotlight for foreign investors, such as Advanced Info Service (ADVANC), Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS), Bangkok Bank (BBL), CP All, Gulf Development (GULF), Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) and PTT. Finansia Syrus Securities has a similar view, noting continued foreign inflows are being driven by the weakening US dollar, which has strengthened Asian currencies and attracted more capital into regional markets. Investor optimism has also been fuelled by expectations of a potential tariff agreement between Thailand and the US following successful negotiations with Vietnam and Indonesia, which resulted in rallies in their stock markets, noted the brokerage. Speculators are betting Thailand could follow a similar path, prompting early capital inflows in anticipation of a deal, according to Finansia Syrus. "Foreign investors see the ongoing US-Thai trade negotiations as a speculative opportunity," said a Finansia Syrus analyst. "Whether Thailand ultimately gains or loses from the deal will determine whether investors increase or withdraw their holdings." Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, executive vice-president at Asia Plus Securities, expects foreign fund flows to gradually increase in the second half of the year. "Thai stocks are now trading at attractive valuations, which could lead to a slow but steady accumulation by foreign investors," he said. Selling pressure from both institutional and foreign investors may ease in the third quarter, said Mr Therdsak. The total value of long-term equity funds has declined to 102 billion baht from 117 billion earlier this year. Meanwhile, direct foreign ownership in Thai equities continues to decline, recently falling to 24.2%. Several negative factors weighing on the Thai bourse are now easing, such as a temporary pause in the Middle East conflict, expectations that Thailand's 2026 fiscal budget bill will pass, and limited economic fallout from rising tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border. The main lingering concern is the outcome of trade negotiations with the US, said Mr Therdsak. If Thai exports remain subject to a 36% tariff, the impact on listed company earnings could be limited to around 1%. However, if the tariff is reduced, there is significant upside potential for the Thai stock market, he said.
