Analysts predict tariff of 19-20% on Thai goods
Koraphat Vorachet, head of research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), said global trade sentiment improved recently.
A breakthrough trade deal between the US and Europe helped ease pressure, with the US agreeing to a 15% tariff rate in exchange for US$750 billion in European gas imports and $600 billion in investment.
US President Donald Trump also signalled that global tariff frameworks should not exceed 15-20%, lifting confidence among global investors.
"KSS sees a 25% tariff ceiling for Thailand as a potential strategic upside for Thai exporters and foreign direct investment in the country," said Mr Koraphat.
A top sector to watch this week is energy, helped by rising oil prices and improved trade sentiment, noted the brokerage.
Crude oil prices have rebounded by 2.36% in response to an improved trade outlook, supporting Thai energy stocks, which account for around 10% of total market capitalisation on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
The chemical industry is also showing signs of recovery from a 20-year low, with share prices long trading below tangible book value, noted KSS.
Analysts believe the sector may be entering the early stages of a "super-cycle", with PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) flagged as an undervalued candidate in the commodity chemicals space.
Supported by the extension of the US-China tariff freeze, Chinese stocks are in play, while banking may benefit from predictions the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its mid-week meeting, said the brokerage.
Meanwhile, dividend stocks such as Advanced Info Service (ADVANC) are favoured for stable income returns, according to KSS.
The Thai-Cambodian ceasefire significantly eased regional tensions, paving the way for a recovery for stocks with business exposure in Cambodia such as Carabao Group (CBG), which stands to gain from improved trade prospects and a stronger baht.
According to Daol Securities, the full details of the US-Thailand tariff framework are expected to be disclosed later this week, the final week before the Aug 1 deadline.
"A favourable outcome would likely align Thai tariffs with those of the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam, in the 19-20% range," said the brokerage.
InnovestX Securities said the US-China agreement to extend the existing tariff freeze before its expiration on Aug 12 is a positive, with China pledging stricter controls to curb excessive price-cutting.
Capital flows have begun shifting away from bonds and into equities amid growing optimism about global trade and continued strong corporate earnings, especially in artificial intelligence-related sectors, said the brokerage.
InnovestX shared the consensus view that Thailand will likely reach a trade deal with the US, with tariffs in line with regional peers. Additional tailwinds include expectations for a rate cut by the newly appointed Bank of Thailand governor.
While a prolonged Thai-Cambodian conflict could present some downside risks, InnovestX believes any economic impact on Thailand would be limited.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Bangkok Post
3 hours ago
- Bangkok Post
Trump vows substantial India tariff hike over Russian oil buying
US President Donald Trump said he would be 'substantially raising' the tariff on Indian exports to the United States over the Asian nation's purchases of Russian oil, a move New Delhi slammed as unjustified in an escalating fight between the two major economies. 'India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits,' Trump wrote on social media on Monday. 'They don't care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.' Trump didn't say by how much he would increase the levy. Last week, he announced a 25% rate on Indian exports — one of the highest of any major economy — and vowed more duties if India continued to buy oil from Russia. The US president's warning comes ahead of an Aug 8 deadline for Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine, with the administration threatening so-called secondary sanctions on countries that purchase Russian energy. Ukraine's allies view those purchases as helping to prop up Russian leader Vladimir Putin's economy and undercutting pressure on Moscow to end a war that is now in its fourth year. India has been a top Trump target in the campaign to end the war. Prime Minister Narendra Modi — who previously enjoyed warm relations with Trump — has been defiant, urging Indians to buy local goods and signalling that his country will continue to buy Russian oil. In a social media post later on Monday, India's Ministry of External Affairs hit out at the European Union and the US for continuing to buy energy and other materials from Russia when 'such trade is not even a national compulsion.' It noted that India began buying oil from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the start of the war, and the US 'encouraged such imports.' 'The targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable,' the ministry said. 'Like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security.' India has morphed into a major buyer of Moscow's crude since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, spurred on by discounts. On average, the country has been buying Russian crude at a rate of about 1.7 million barrels a day so far this year, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. India exported about 1.4 million barrels a day of refined fuels in the first half of this year, according to Kpler data compiled by Bloomberg. Diesel or gasoil cargoes made up approximately 40% of total fuel exports, while gasoline and blending components comprised about 30% of the shipments. Still, it's hard to quantify how much of India's oil exports derive specifically from Russian crude because refiners generally consume an array of barrels and then sell an even wider range of fuels. The EU recently launched a package of sanctions that will ban the purchase of fuel made from Russian crude, but traders are still waiting for the body to detail how the measures would work in practice. At least four tankers discharged millions of barrels of Russian crude at Indian refineries at the weekend, a sign the closely scrutinised deliveries are continuing as normal. Any disruption to Indian purchases of Russian oil could force it to look elsewhere for supplies. Last week, the country's largest processor bought several million barrels of crude from the US and United Arab Emirates in sudden large purchases that were set to be delivered relatively quickly, people familiar with the matter said. Under the president's deadline for Putin to halt the fighting in Ukraine, secondary sanctions targeting buyers of Russian oil could be imposed Friday. 'Secondary sanctions and tariffs against those that are paying for this war — like China, India and Brazil — by buying the oil that Russia is producing, is an obvious next step to try and bring this war to an end,' Matt Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, told Bloomberg Television. 'This is really going to hit them where it counts, and that is in their main revenue source, which is the sale of oil to these countries.' Trade talks Trump's escalating tariffs stunned India after months of negotiations. The president has intensified his rhetoric against India, assailing its levies and other barriers to US goods. He's also hit out at the nation's energy purchases from Russia and participation in the Brics group of developing economies, in particular over the bloc's consideration of alternatives to the US dollar. The Indian government has indicated it intends to continue talks with the US in hopes of securing lower tariffs. India is considering ramping up natural gas purchases from the US and increasing imports of communication equipment and gold. Officials see those moves as helping to narrow India's trade surplus with the US, a key concern for Trump. The US had a trade deficit with India of about $43 billion last year, the 11th largest, according to figures from the International Monetary Fund. But there are numerous sticking points, with Modi reluctant to open up sensitive sectors like agriculture and dairy to the US. Relations between Modi and Trump have deteriorated in the president's second term. After clashes earlier this year between India and Pakistan, Trump threatened to block access to US markets if the countries did not halt the fighting. Trump has claimed his actions brought peace, a view that has rankled Modi's government. Pressure on Russia India has been caught in the middle of Trump's enhanced focus on ending Russia's war in Ukraine. The president vowed to quickly end Russia's invasion but those efforts have been stymied by Putin, who has responded with only maximalist demands for Ukrainian territory and refused face-to-face discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with Putin, leading to his latest threats to impose economic penalties on Moscow. He has floated tougher sanctions in the past only to delay action in hopes of preserving negotiations. Trump told reporters Sunday that special envoy Steve Witkoff would go to Russia this week — on Wednesday or Thursday — for further discussions. Tensions between Washington and Moscow intensified last week when Trump said he had moved two nuclear submarines in response to 'highly provocative statements' from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
Bangkok Post
5 hours ago
- Bangkok Post
True IDC lands Alibaba Cloud deal
True Internet Data Center Co Ltd (True IDC), a local data centre and cloud services provider under Charoen Pokphand Group (CP), has been appointed the authorised distributor and managed services provider (MSP) of Alibaba Cloud in Thailand. This strategic partnership aims to strengthen Thailand's digital infrastructure and support local organisations in their transition to the AI and cloud era, while also contributing to the robust growth of the country's digital economy. Thailand's public cloud market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 23.6% between 2025 and 2030, reaching a total market value of US$8.51 billion by 2030. "This collaboration with Alibaba Cloud marks a significant milestone for True IDC in enhancing Thailand's digital capabilities," said Tanawat Konsombat, head of technology at True IDC. In its new roles as both a distributor and comprehensive MSP, True IDC will play a key part in expanding access to Alibaba Cloud's world-class technologies for businesses across all industries in Thailand. The company will also foster a thriving digital ecosystem that promotes knowledge sharing, skills development and end-to-end cloud service delivery, he added. These services include strategic consultation, cloud architecture design, planning, system deployment, ongoing operations management in accordance with international standards, and the establishment of a strong domestic technology partner network. True IDC is committed to helping Thai enterprises maximise the benefits of cloud adoption in terms of operational efficiency, cost control, cybersecurity, IT talent gap mitigation, simplified system management, regulatory compliance and sustainable digital business operations. "Teaming up with Alibaba Cloud will primarily support key industry sectors such as retail, e-commerce, fintech, healthcare and logistics," said Mr Tanawat. In May CP Group announced a strategic partnership with Global Infrastructure Partners, a part of BlackRock, and True IDC, to elevate Thailand's digital infrastructure to world-class standards, supporting the rapid growth of AI and cloud computing and helping to drive Thailand to become Asean's leading digital economy hub. According to True IDC, over the next 3-5 years, it plans to exponentially grow investment in data centre business, targeting the deployment of over $1 billion in capital. In May, True IDC officially launched Thailand's first AI hyperscale data centre, reinforcing its commitment to advancing the nation's digital infrastructure to support the new economy. Edward Liu, director of independent software vendor business development for the South Pacific Region & Japan at Alibaba Cloud, said this collaboration with True ID represents a pivotal step in establishing a solid technological foundation for the nation. It will enable both the public and private sectors to access end-to-end cloud services -- from global technology enablement and IT strategic planning to professional operations and talent development -- under a robust partner ecosystem. Ultimately, the partnership aims to enhance industry-wide competitiveness and fuel the growth of Thailand's digital economy, paving the way for the country to emerge as a digital hub within Asean in the near future. Alibaba recently launched the Qwen3-Coder, its most advanced agentic AI coding model to date.
Bangkok Post
6 hours ago
- Bangkok Post
Chula carries out nation's inaugural 5.5G field test
Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Engineering has initiated the country's first 5.5G field test, paving the way for a real-time navigation system and automated factories as well as 6G development in the near future. The university and related parties jointly conducted this experiment within its 5G-A Spectrum Joint Exploration project in its regulatory sandbox, running from late last year through September 2025. Trairat Viriyasirikul, acting secretary-general of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC), said the NBTC office allowed the university to set up the sandbox for testing new innovations and technologies, including allowing use of the upper band of the 6GHz frequency for the testing phase of the project. Telecom industry operators support the 5.5G network being used in the project. An NBTC source who requested anonymity said Thailand is expected to officially start using 5.5G technology by the end of 2025 through a partnership between Chinese tech giant Huawei and local service providers such as True Corporation and Advanced Info Service. The partnership includes the government sector, in line with the Thailand 4.0 policy. Chulalongkorn University's 5G-A Spectrum Joint Exploration project recently invited related parties to present their test results. The test demonstrated that 5G-Advanced technology can transmit data downlinks at a speed of up to 10 gigabits per second (Gbps), 10 times faster than 5G technology for outdoor usage, and a speed up to 1Gbps for indoor usage. 5.5G, known as 5G-Advanced in full, is a leap in technology that will upgrade the entire mobile network system to be faster, smarter and save more energy than ever. It delivers a peak download speed of up to 100Gbps, compared to 5G's 10Gbps. It is ideal for real-time tasks such as augmented reality or virtual reality, gaming and even remote surgery. Currently, more than 60 network providers around the world, including those in China and Hong Kong, have started offering 5.5G services after 3GPP, the telecommunications standardisation organisation, released the first draft of 5.5G standards this year. Abel Deng, president of Huawei Asia-Pacific's carrier sales business, said earlier that a combination of generative artificial intelligence and 5.5G would unlock new creative and economic potential in the Asia-Pacific region.
