Latest news with #Korea-USFreeTradeAgreement
Korea Herald
01-04-2025
- Business
- Korea Herald
S. Korea to continue negotiations with US on trade barrier issues raised in USTR report: ministry
The South Korean government will continue negotiating with Washington on non-tariff measure issues ahead of the planned announcement of US reciprocal tariffs, the industry ministry said Tuesday, shortly after the office of the US Trade Representative released an annual report on foreign trade barriers. The government will work to address US concerns over non-tariff measures with Washington through various communication channels, including working-level consultative bodies and the implementation committee of the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said. Earlier in the day, the USTR issued the 2025 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers, which is expected to play a crucial role in the Donald Trump administration's announcement of country-by-country reciprocal tariffs, set for Wednesday. The ministry said the report assessed South Korea more favorably compared to other US trade partners, noting that some 80 percent of duties on bilateral trade in industrial and consumer goods have been eliminated under the KORUS FTA. The 2025 report mentioned a total of 21 non-tariff barriers by South Korea, which increased from the previous year but is smaller in number compared with reports issued prior to 2023, the ministry explained. The 21 barriers included sanitary and phytosanitary barriers on agricultural products, such as restrictions on US beef products deriving from animals more than 30 months of age, and digital trade barriers, such as network usage fees, proposals to regulate online platform operators for fair competition and restrictions on the export of location-based data. For the first time, the report also mentioned South Korea's defense offset trade program, under which Seoul has set certain conditions for foreign defense contractors to meet for defense industrial cooperation when they engage in key government procurement projects. The ministry said the latest NTE report listed many issues already cited in last year's edition and that it has been working to address Washington's concerns. Earlier this year, Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun and Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo visited Washington to meet with US trade officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and USTR Jamieson Greer. The government will closely analyze the NTE report to devise response measures, while continuing its tariff negotiations with the US, the ministry said. (Yonhap)
Korea Herald
30-03-2025
- Automotive
- Korea Herald
Companies on edge as Trump tariffs loom
As US President Donald Trump's announcement on retaliatory tariffs draws closer, tensions are mounting across Korea's industrial sectors. Fears of increased tariffs are sending shock waves through the domestic market, according to industry sources Sunday. The automobile and steel industries, already hard hit by sector-specific tariffs, are particularly concerned that an additional layer of retaliatory tariffs could be imposed on top of the existing 25 percent duties. It has raised significant alarm among key players in the sector. The semiconductor and battery industries are also wary of expanding uncertainty in the global supply chain. Companies are meticulously reviewing strategies, including increasing local production in the US, to minimize potential losses. Last year, Hyundai Motor Group exported some 1 million vehicles to the US tariff-free under the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement. Even with maximum local production expansion, an estimated 500,000 to 700,000 vehicles would be subject to the tariffs. According to credit rating agency S&P Global, a 20 percent tariff could shrink Hyundai and Kia's operating profits by up to 19 percent. NICE Investors Service further estimated that if a 25 percent tariff is imposed on cars imported from Mexico and Korea, Hyundai and Kia's earnings before interest and taxes could decline by 34 percent. Despite these concerns, Hyundai appears to be taking a wait-and-see approach, having already made substantial investments in the US. Last week, the company announced a $21 billion investment across the US automotive, logistics, steel and future energy industries by 2028. The investment amount surpasses the $20.5 billion the automaker has already invested in the US and marks the first major response from a Korean conglomerate to the Trump administration's second-term policies. Industry watchers are divided on whether the latest investment will help mitigate tariff impacts, with some expecting a positive influence while others remain cautious given the ongoing uncertainties. The steel sector, which was among the first to be hit with a 25 percent tariff, is anxiously monitoring whether additional retaliatory tariffs will be imposed. Hyundai Steel is actively exploring large-scale investments in the US to construct new plants able to produce automotive-grade steel. This move aims to offset the tariff burden on steel shipments to Hyundai's American manufacturing facilities and ensure a stable supply chain. Posco is also considering investments in upstream steelmaking operations in the US, such as blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces, to process raw iron ore into semifinished products. With Trump vowing to impose a minimum 25 percent tariff on imported chips, the Korean chip industry is closely monitoring policy developments. Though direct exports of semiconductors to the US accounted for only 7.5 percent last year — far lower than China (32.8 percent), Hong Kong (18.4 percent), Taiwan (15.2 percent) and Vietnam (12.7 percent) — the potential indirect impact remains a concern. Experts suggest that since Korea leads in advanced semiconductor production, particularly high-bandwidth memory, there are limited alternatives to Korean-made chips. As a result, the direct tariff impact might be less severe. However, if both sector-specific and retaliatory tariffs exceed 25 percent, it could have broader implications. Additionally, many semiconductors undergo assembly and processing in Taiwan before being exported to the US. The extent of the tariff impact will depend on how the US defines and enforces its trade restrictions. Expanding US-based production remains an option, but given the high costs, complex approval processes and long construction timelines, domestic companies are proceeding with caution. Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have committed to building large fabrications in the US, but further investments are under careful evaluation. Battery and consumer electronics manufacturers, particularly those with operations in Canada and Mexico, are also scrambling for contingency plans. Canada, a major source of key minerals, hosts significant investments from Korean battery firms LG Energy Solution, Posco Future M and EcoPro BM. These companies are closely monitoring US trade policies to mitigate operational uncertainties. Higher tariffs on Canadian lithium and nickel could raise battery production costs, affecting product competitiveness. In Mexico, where Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics operate home appliance and TV manufacturing facilities, the risk of increased tariffs is prompting firms to consider shifting production to the US. LG currently produces washing machines and dryers at its Tennessee plant and is prepared to relocate other key operations to the US if Mexican tariffs are imposed. 'We're preparing a diverse supply chain and implementing countermeasures, enabling it to respond promptly to US tariff policies,' said Hwang Tae-hwan, head of sales and marketing of digital appliances at Samsung Electronics, at the tech giant's press briefing Friday.
Korea Herald
30-03-2025
- Automotive
- Korea Herald
Companies on edge as Trump administration's retaliatory tariffs loom
As US President Donald Trump's announcement on retaliatory tariffs draws closer, tensions are mounting across Korea's industrial sectors. Fears of increased tariffs are sending shock waves through the domestic market, according to industry sources Sunday. The automobile and steel industries, already hard hit by sector-specific tariffs, are particularly concerned that an additional layer of retaliatory tariffs could be imposed on top of the existing 25 percent duties. It has raised significant alarm among key players in the sector. The semiconductor and battery industries are also wary of expanding uncertainty in the global supply chain. Companies are meticulously reviewing strategies, including increasing local production in the US, to minimize potential losses. Last year, Hyundai Motor Group exported some 1 million vehicles to the US tariff-free under the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement. Even with maximum local production expansion, an estimated 500,000 to 700,000 vehicles would be subject to the tariffs. According to credit rating agency S&P Global, a 20 percent tariff could shrink Hyundai and Kia's operating profits by up to 19 percent. NICE Investors Service further estimated that if a 25 percent tariff is imposed on cars imported from Mexico and Korea, Hyundai and Kia's earnings before interest and taxes could decline by 34 percent. Despite these concerns, Hyundai appears to be taking a wait-and-see approach, having already made substantial investments in the US. Last week, the company announced a $21 billion investment across the US automotive, logistics, steel and future energy industries by 2028. The investment amount surpasses the $20.5 billion the automaker has already invested in the US and marks the first major response from a Korean conglomerate to the Trump administration's second-term policies. Industry watchers are divided on whether the latest investment will help mitigate tariff impacts, with some expecting a positive influence while others remain cautious given the ongoing uncertainties. The steel sector, which was among the first to be hit with a 25 percent tariff, is anxiously monitoring whether additional retaliatory tariffs will be imposed. Hyundai Steel is actively exploring large-scale investments in the US to construct new plants able to produce automotive-grade steel. This move aims to offset the tariff burden on steel shipments to Hyundai's American manufacturing facilities and ensure a stable supply chain. Posco is also considering investments in upstream steelmaking operations in the US, such as blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces, to process raw iron ore into semifinished products. With Trump vowing to impose a minimum 25 percent tariff on imported chips, the Korean chip industry is closely monitoring policy developments. Though direct exports of semiconductors to the US accounted for only 7.5 percent last year — far lower than China (32.8 percent), Hong Kong (18.4 percent), Taiwan (15.2 percent) and Vietnam (12.7 percent) — the potential indirect impact remains a concern. Experts suggest that since Korea leads in advanced semiconductor production, particularly high-bandwidth memory, there are limited alternatives to Korean-made chips. As a result, the direct tariff impact might be less severe. However, if both sector-specific and retaliatory tariffs exceed 25 percent, it could have broader implications. Additionally, many semiconductors undergo assembly and processing in Taiwan before being exported to the US. The extent of the tariff impact will depend on how the US defines and enforces its trade restrictions. Expanding US-based production remains an option, but given the high costs, complex approval processes and long construction timelines, domestic companies are proceeding with caution. Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have committed to building large fabrications in the US, but further investments are under careful evaluation. Battery and consumer electronics manufacturers, particularly those with operations in Canada and Mexico, are also scrambling for contingency plans. Canada, a major source of key minerals, hosts significant investments from Korean battery firms LG Energy Solution, Posco Future M and EcoPro BM. These companies are closely monitoring US trade policies to mitigate operational uncertainties. Higher tariffs on Canadian lithium and nickel could raise battery production costs, affecting product competitiveness. In Mexico, where Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics operate home appliance and TV manufacturing facilities, the risk of increased tariffs is prompting firms to consider shifting production to the US. LG currently produces washing machines and dryers at its Tennessee plant and is prepared to relocate other key operations to the US if Mexican tariffs are imposed. 'We're preparing a diverse supply chain and implementing countermeasures, enabling it to respond promptly to US tariff policies,' said Hwang Tae-hwan, head of sales and marketing of digital appliances at Samsung Electronics, at the tech giant's press briefing Friday.
Korea Herald
28-03-2025
- Automotive
- Korea Herald
Trump unlikely to revisit FTA, but tariffs may hit Korea harder: strategist
Ex-US diplomat outlines strategic dos and don'ts for Seoul in navigating Trump 2.0 US President Donald Trump's tariffs on industry-specific tariffs will be more consequential for South Korea than his looming "reciprocal" levies, with core industries like automobiles, semiconductors and steel squarely in the crosshairs, former US veteran diplomat Kurt Tong told The Korea Herald in Seoul. Tong, managing partner at The Asia Group, a Washington-based strategic advisory firm, urged Seoul to adopt a calibrated response — whether through retaliation, selective acceptance, or constructive incentives such as investment pledges — depending on the extent and justification of tariffs, imposed outside the protections afforded by the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement. Tong, however, saw only a slim chance of the Trump administration pursuing a renegotiation of the bilateral FTA, due to political and procedural burdens, particularly with a sharply divided US Congress — despite mounting concerns in Seoul that he would attempt it. Trump's trade blitz, centered on two main axes of sectoral and reciprocal tariffs, has put South Korea on alert. The country is scrambling to stay off a looming list of reciprocal tariffs, which are designed to mirror tariffs and non-tariff barriers faced by US exports. The list is set to be unveiled on April 2 — a date Trump has labeled as "Liberation Day." "I actually think that for Korea, the sectoral tariffs are going to be more important than the reciprocal tariffs," Tong told The Korea Herald on March 21. "Among the nations of the world, Korea has — if you think about the sectoral tariffs that have been proposed on automobiles, steel and aluminum, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals — Korea is a major exporter of three of those four items." In 2024, the US accounted for 50.8 percent of Korea's $68.3 billion of auto exports, up from 47.1 percent a year earlier. Semiconductor exports contributed $141.9 billion to overall exports, with the US portion remaining at around 7.2 percent, according to the Korea International Trade Association. Korea exported $2.9 billion worth of steel to the United States, making it the fourth-largest exporter and accounting for approximately 9 percent of total US steel imports in 2024, according to the US International Trade Administration. Ahead of the rollout of a range of reciprocal tariffs, Trump on Wednesday announced a plan to levy a 25 percent tariff on all imported automobiles. The move follows through on his February pledge to tax big industries, including autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, "in the neighborhood of 25 percent." A 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum is set to take effect on March 12. 'The tariff rates that are being discussed are very high, significantly high rates," Tong underscored. Tong emphasized the need for South Korea to formulate its counterstrategy based on how sectoral and reciprocal tariffs are calculated — and whether the tariff figures proposed by the US are reasonable or excessive. "So, Korea also needs to have a strategy for those tariffs, whether it involves retaliation, whether it involves acceptance, whether it involves positive leverage response," Tong said. "By positive leverage response, for example, the Korean government, Korean industry could work together to make promises about more investment in the United States." Hyundai Motor Group on Monday announced a plan for $21 billion in new investments in the US through 2028 — marking its largest overseas investment — at the White House, drawing Trump's praise. FTA expected to stay intact However, Tong saw little chance of the Trump administration seeking to amend the Korea-US FTA. The agreement already went through changes in Trump's first term to incorporate US demands, including limiting Korean steel exports, relaxing US auto import requirements, and a 20-year extension of US tariffs on Korean trucks, as well as Korean demands. "I actually would be surprised if the Trump administration decides to put more energy into an FTA revision or a new FTA, because they're skeptical about FTAs and the president, politically, wants fast and big victories," Tong said. "The FTA approach takes a long time — it's very complicated. The public doesn't understand what's happening. The president then would have to — if it's a real FTA — get cooperation from Congress, which is complicated and difficult." With Republicans maintaining their slim 53–47 Senate majority and only a five-seat House edge — one of the thinnest margins in modern history — deep partisan fault lines have brought Congress to a standstill, making complex trade negotiations politically fraught and unlikely to move. "The US Congress is very skeptical on trade — but it's mostly skeptical about passing anything, any legislation, because of the sharp political divide between Republicans and Democrats," Tong said. "So I think it's going to be more of a sector-by-sector type negotiation than an FTA negotiation." Dos and don'ts for Seoul When asked what South Korea can do to successfully navigate challenges during the second Trump administration, Tong discussed "the dos and don'ts of the relationship," proposing a list of strategies for Seoul. "On the 'do' side, it's about dealing with the reality of the Trump administration. The good things to do are to be positive in setting the agenda, play to your strengths, emphasize those strengths, be direct and clear in communication — without being excessively confrontational — and seek to communicate directly with President Trump," Tong said. "The don'ts are to assume that Trump and his team understand everything, to reference prior agreements as if those can't be changed, or to be quiet or passive and ask for forgiveness or to be spared." Instead of approaching negotiations defensively, Tong said, Korea should present itself as a partner with leverage: "Going into the Trump conversation with 'Please don't hit me, I'm scared' means you're going to get hit harder. Go in with: 'You shouldn't hit me because you want something from me. Here are some possibilities, let's talk about it — person-to-person, man-to-man negotiation style.'" Tong characterized the two sides' discussion as "more like a bottom-up, zero-based conversation," though he noted a hopeful prospect was in sight. "I think the end result will be the relationship being fine and solid — because it's to the mutual benefit of the United States and Korea to have a strong relationship, to have a deep economic relationship — but that it has to be kind of explained from the beginning, not in a university lecturer kind of style, but rather in a negotiating style," Tong said. "Trump's going to bring a lot of leverage to the relationship. Korea can also bring leverage — both positive leverage and negative leverage — to the conversation, and then frame it in a way that is like a negotiation, but also touches on the fundamentals." Will Trump attend APEC? The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which South Korea is set to host from late October to early November this year, could be a key platforms for Trump to foster economic and business ties with Korea, and meet with leaders in the Indo-Pacific region, including Chinese leader Xi Jinping. "I don't expect the US to use APEC for any big policy moves. But still, APEC could be useful to the US. The US could be interested in it for specific topics, like if there's a good discussion on AI and AI rules at APEC, the US will participate," Tong said. "I don't think President Trump is personally interested in that. He has more of a big-picture approach." Tong suggested Trump would attend for mainly two reasons, even though his bilateral, transactional style runs against APEC's core mission of free and open trade in the region. "One is because Korea is an important country, and it could be part of his strategy for negotiating with Korea to build a stronger economic relationship that fits more with the America First approach — and that's attractive to the president," Tong said. "And the other is, it's a venue for conducting the China negotiations — because China is an active member in APEC, and President Xi is almost certainly going to come because China is hosting APEC in 2026." Tong further explained that Trump's participation in APEC could be influenced by Russian President Vladimir Putin's potential participation, which is currently prohibited, and by North Korea's actions, which aim to raise the country's priority in US foreign policy. 'If Trump's strategy for a ceasefire and armistice in Ukraine is successful — I don't know whether it will be, as I think it's proving more difficult than he expected — but if it is successful, then maybe he could meet Vladimir Putin at APEC as well," Tong said. "So, there's also a North Korea policy angle to visiting South Korea. I don't think that's a high priority for the United States, but North Korea might try and make it a priority by misbehaving sometime this year. We'll see what their strategy is, whether they want to poke their head up and start messing around again or not. So, I expect he'll come, and a lot of these themes will be happening." On North Korea, Tong said renewed summit diplomacy is unlikely under the second Trump administration — unless Pyongyang takes the initiative. "Right now I see no signs of the US proactively reaching out to North Korea and making them a high priority," he said, adding that Trump's door to communication remains technically open — "he might send them a letter." Tong emphasized that Trump's past efforts to strike a "grand bargain" with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un failed because Kim was unwilling to fully abandon his nuclear program in exchange for a promising future — including economic growth and diplomatic recognition. Given Kim's enduring position, Trump has little incentive to reengage, Tong said. "He (Trump) is not going to put a lot of energy into it. I think if there's going to be a Trump-Kim dance, Kim's going to have to make the first move," Tong said. "It does take two to dance, but somebody's got to ask the other one out, and I don't think it's going to be Trump." Who is Kurt Tong? Kurt Tong, managing partner at the Asia Group, is a veteran US diplomat with three decades of experience in foreign policy and economic diplomacy. He held multiple senior positions at the State Department, including consul general and chief of mission in Hong Kong and Macau, and principal deputy assistant secretary for economic and business affairs from 2014 to 2016. From 2011 to 2014, he served as deputy chief of mission and chargé d'affaires at the US Embassy in Tokyo. In 2011, Tong was appointed US ambassador for APEC, leading the US chairmanship. Earlier in his career, he served as director of Korean affairs at the State Department, where he played a key role in the six-party talks and in negotiations to secure the release of Americans detained in North Korea. From 2006 to 2008, as director for Asian economic affairs at the White House National Security Council, he was one of the principal architects of both the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement. dagyumji@
![[Herald Interview] Trump unlikely to revisit FTA, but tariffs may hit Korea harder: strategist](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwimg.heraldcorp.com%2Fnews%2Fcms%2F2025%2F03%2F27%2Fnews-p.v1.20250327.3ead8a4127704fe295a2005e226fab05_T1.jpg&w=3840&q=100)
Korea Herald
27-03-2025
- Business
- Korea Herald
[Herald Interview] Trump unlikely to revisit FTA, but tariffs may hit Korea harder: strategist
Ex-US diplomat outlines strategic dos and don'ts for Seoul in navigating Trump 2.0 US President Donald Trump's tariffs on specific industry sectors will be more consequential for South Korea than his looming "reciprocal" levies, with core industries like automobiles, semiconductors and steel — pillars of the country's export-driven economy — squarely in the crosshairs, former US veteran diplomat Kurt Tong told The Korea Herald in Seoul. Tong, managing partner at The Asia Group, a Washington-based strategic advisory firm, urged Seoul to adopt a calibrated response — whether through retaliation, selective acceptance, or constructive incentives such as investment pledges — depending on the extent and justification of tariffs, imposed outside the protections afforded by the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement. Tong, however, saw only a slim chance of the Trump administration pursuing a renegotiation of the KORUS due to political and procedural burdens, particularly with a sharply divided US Congress, despite growing concerns in Seoul. Trump's trade blitz, with its two main axes of sectoral and reciprocal tariffs, has put South Korea on alert. The country is scrambling to stay off a looming list of reciprocal tariffs, which are designed to mirror duties and barriers faced by US exports. The list is set to be unveiled on April 2 — a date Trump has labeled as 'Liberation Day." "I actually think that for Korea, the sectoral tariffs are going to be more important than the reciprocal tariffs," Tong told The Korea Herald on March 21. "Among the nations of the world, Korea has — if you think about the sectoral tariffs that have been proposed on automobiles, steel and aluminum, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals — Korea is a major exporter of three of those four items." The US accounted for 50.8 percent of Korea's $68.3 billion of auto exports, up from 47.1 percent a year earlier. Semiconductor exports contributed $141.9 billion to overall exports, with the US portion remaining at around 7.2 percent. The US also took in 21 percent of Korea's steel exports, or around $4.7 billion, and was the fourth-largest destination, according to the Korea International Trade Association. Ahead of the rollout of a range of reciprocal tariffs, Trump on Wednesday announced a plan to levy a 25 percent tariff on all imported automobiles — yet another key axis in his wide-ranging tariff push centered on sector-specific measures. The move follows through on his February pledge to tax big industries, including autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, "in the neighborhood of 25 percent." A 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum is set to take effect on March 12. 'The tariff rates that are being discussed are very high, significantly high rates," Tong underscored. Tong said South Korea must formulate its strategy based on how sectoral and reciprocal tariffs are calculated — and whether the tariff figures proposed by the US are reasonable or excessive. "So, Korea also needs to have a strategy for those tariffs, whether it involves retaliation, whether it involves acceptance, whether it involves positive leverage response," Tong said. "By positive leverage response, for example, the Korean government, Korean industry could work together to make promises about more investment in the United States." Hyundai Motor Group on Monday announced a plan for $21 billion in new investments in the US through 2028 — marking its largest overseas investment — at the White House, drawing Trump's praise. FTA expected to stay intact However, Tong saw little chance of the Trump administration seeking to amend the KORUS FTA, despite rising concerns in Seoul. The agreement already went through changes in Trump's first term to incorporate US demands, including limiting Korean steel exports, relaxing US auto import requirements, and a 20-year extension of US tariffs on Korean trucks, as well as Korean demands. 'I actually would be surprised if the Trump administration decides to put more energy into an FTA revision or a new FTA, because they're skeptical about FTAs and the president, politically, wants fast and big victories,' Tong said. 'The FTA approach takes a long time — it's very complicated. The public doesn't understand what's happening. The president then would have to — if it's a real FTA — get cooperation from Congress, which is complicated and difficult.' With Republicans maintaining their slim 53–47 Senate majority and only a five-seat House edge — one of the thinnest margins in modern history — deep partisan fault lines have brought Congress to a standstill, making complex trade negotiations politically fraught and unlikely to move. 'The US Congress is very skeptical on trade — but it's mostly skeptical about passing anything, any legislation, because of the sharp political divide between Republicans and Democrats,' Tong said. 'So I think it's going to be more of a sector-by-sector type negotiation than an FTA negotiation.' 'Dos and don'ts' for Seoul When asked what South Korea can do to successfully navigate challenges during the second Trump administration, Tong discussed "the dos and don'ts of the relationship," proposing a list of strategies for Seoul. 'On the 'do' side, it's about dealing with the reality of the Trump administration. The good things to do are to be positive in setting the agenda, play to your strengths, emphasize those strengths, be direct and clear in communication — without being excessively confrontational — and seek to communicate directly with President Trump," Tong said. 'The don'ts are to assume that Trump and his team understand everything, to reference prior agreements as if those can't be changed, or to be quiet or passive and ask for forgiveness or to be spared.' Instead of approaching negotiations defensively, Tong said, Korea should present itself as a partner with leverage: 'Going into the Trump conversation with 'Please don't hit me, I'm scared' means you're going to get hit harder. Go in with: 'You shouldn't hit me because you want something from me. Here are some possibilities, let's talk about it — person-to-person, man-to-man negotiation style.'' Tong characterized the two sides' discussion as "more like a bottom-up, zero-based conversation," though he noted a hopeful prospect was in sight. "I think the end result will be the relationship being fine and solid — because it's to the mutual benefit of the United States and Korea to have a strong relationship, to have a deep economic relationship — but that it has to be kind of explained from the beginning, not in a university lecturer kind of style, but rather in a negotiating style," Tong said. "Trump's going to bring a lot of leverage to the relationship. Korea can also bring leverage — both positive leverage and negative leverage — to the conversation, and then frame it in a way that is like a negotiation, but also touches on the fundamentals." Will Trump attend APEC? The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which South Korea is set to host from late October to early November this year, will serve as one of the key platforms where Trump can foster economic and business ties with Korea, and meet with leaders in the Indo-Pacific region, including Chinese leader Xi Jinping. "I don't expect the US to use APEC for any big policy moves. But still, APEC could be useful to the US. The US could be interested in it for specific topics, like if there's a good discussion on AI and AI rules at APEC, the US will participate,' Tong said. 'I don't think President Trump is personally interested in that. He's more of a big-picture approach.' Tong said his "best guess" would be that Trump will attend for mainly two reasons despite his bilateral and transactional style of trade, which is contrary to the core mission of APEC for free and open trade in the Indo-Pacific region. 'One is because Korea is an important country, and it could be part of his strategy for negotiating with Korea to build a stronger economic relationship that fits more with the America First approach — and that's attractive to the president,' Tong said. 'And the other is, it's a venue for conducting the China negotiations — because China is an active member in APEC, and President Xi is almost certainly going to come because China is hosting APEC in 2026.' Tong further explained that Trump's participation in APEC could be influenced by Russian President Vladimir Putin's potential participation, which is currently prohibited, and by North Korea's actions, which aim to raise the country's priority in US foreign policy. 'If Trump's strategy for a ceasefire and armistice in Ukraine is successful — I don't know whether it will be, as I think it's proving more difficult than he expected — but if it is successful, then maybe he could meet Vladimir Putin at APEC as well,' Tong said. 'So, there's also a North Korea policy angle to visiting South Korea. I don't think that's a high priority for the United States, but North Korea might try and make it a priority by misbehaving sometime this year. We'll see what their strategy is, whether they want to poke their head up and start messing around again or not. So, I expect he'll come, and a lot of these themes will be happening.' On North Korea, Tong made clear that renewed summit diplomacy is unlikely under a second Trump administration — unless Pyongyang takes the initiative. 'Right now I see no signs of the US proactively reaching out to North Korea and making them a high priority,' he said, adding that Trump's door to communication remains technically open — 'he might send them a letter.' Tong emphasized that Trump's past efforts to strike a "grand bargain" with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un failed because Kim was unwilling to fully abandon his nuclear program in return for a promising future, including economic growth and diplomatic recognition, and given Kim's continued stance, Trump is unlikely to pursue negotiations again. "He (Trump) is not going to put a lot of energy into it. I think if there's going to be a Trump-Kim dance, Kim's going to have to make the first move,' Tong said. "It does take two to dance, but somebody's got to ask the other one out, and I don't think it's going to be Trump."
