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Time of India
12-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Markets could Start a Relief Rally amid India-Pak Pause
Equity indices are poised for a relief rally Monday after the weekend announcement of a 'pause' in hostilities with Pakistan, although the breather could well be short-lived if the situation along the border were to worsen yet again. #Operation Sindoor India responds to Pak's ceasefire violation; All that happened India-Pakistan ceasefire reactions: Who said what Punjab's hopes for normalcy dimmed by fresh violations Both benchmark indices declined around 1.3% over the past week, including a 1.1% fall on Friday, as concerns of a full-scale conflict prompted traders to liquidate their bets ahead of the weekend. 'There was apprehension among investors, especially at the fag end of the week, due to the rising tensions between India and Pakistan, which led to lightened positions,' said Lakshmi Iyer, CEO–Investment & Strategy, Kotak Alternate Asset Managers. 'The ceasefire is a big respite and is expected to trigger a relief rally on Monday.' Iyer noted that while markets may react positively to de-escalation, a sharp upmove is unlikely. Trading could remain choppy in the near term as geopolitical developments continue to weigh on sentiment, according to Iyer. The truce between India and Pakistan is shrouded in an uneasy calm, as both countries have accused each other of violating the ceasefire. The Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the market's fear gauge, surged 16.4% to 21.63 over the past five sessions, indicating heightened risk perception among traders. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth a net ₹3,798 crore on Friday—turning sellers for the first time in 16 trading sessions. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth ₹7,278 crore. So far in May, FPIs have bought equities worth ₹9,257.95 crore after purchasing ₹3,416.08 crore in April. 'The markets were holding up despite the geopolitical noise. Now that some uncertainty has receded, they are expected to breathe a little easier,' said Mahesh Patil, CIO, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC. Patil said traders who built bearish positions ahead of the weekend could not rush to liquidate their positions and that could push the markets higher. Still, he warned that current valuations remain elevated, which may limit any sharp rally. Iyer also expects the upside to be capped. 'When the conflict first broke out, the markets didn't crash in a big way. So while there may not be a sharp rebound, respite buying is expected now that some uncertainty is out of the way,' Iyer said. Patil noted that domestic investors had been cautious in deploying funds, and this withheld capital could gradually enter the markets in the coming days.
Economic Times
12-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Markets poised for a relief rally amid India-Pak ceasefire
Mumbai: Equity indices are poised for a relief rally Monday after the weekend announcement of a "pause" in hostilities with Pakistan, although the breather could well be short-lived if the situation along the border were to worsen yet again. ADVERTISEMENT Both benchmark indices declined around 1.3% over the past week, including a 1.1% fall on Friday, as concerns of a full-scale conflict prompted traders to liquidate their bets ahead of the weekend. "There was apprehension among investors, especially at the fag end of the week, due to the rising tensions between India and Pakistan, which led to lightened positions," said Lakshmi Iyer, CEO-Investment & Strategy, Kotak Alternate Asset Managers. "The ceasefire is a big respite and is expected to trigger a relief rally on Monday." Iyer noted that while markets may react positively to de-escalation, a sharp upmove is unlikely. Valuations Remain Elevated Trading could remain choppy in the near term as geopolitical developments continue to weigh on sentiment, according to Iyer. ADVERTISEMENT The truce between India and Pakistan is shrouded in an uneasy calm, as both countries have accused each other of violating the Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the market's fear gauge, surged 16.4% to 21.63 over the past five sessions, indicating heightened risk perception among traders. ADVERTISEMENT Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth a net ₹3,798 crore on Friday-turning sellers for the first time in 16 trading sessions. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth ₹7,278 crore. So far in May, FPIs have bought equities worth ₹9,257.95 crore after purchasing ₹3,416.08 crore in April. Calm After the Storm "The markets were holding up despite the geopolitical noise. Now that some uncertainty has receded, they are expected to breathe a little easier," said Mahesh Patil, CIO, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC. ADVERTISEMENT Patil said traders who built bearish positions ahead of the weekend could not rush to liquidate their positions and that could push the markets higher. Still, he warned that current valuations remain elevated, which may limit any sharp also expects the upside to be capped. ADVERTISEMENT "When the conflict first broke out, the markets didn't crash in a big way. So while there may not be a sharp rebound, respite buying is expected now that some uncertainty is out of the way," Iyer said. Patil noted that domestic investors had been cautious in deploying funds, and this withheld capital could gradually enter the markets in the coming days. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
12-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Markets poised for a relief rally amid India-Pak ceasefire
Agencies Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Mumbai: Equity indices are poised for a relief rally Monday after the weekend announcement of a "pause" in hostilities with Pakistan, although the breather could well be short-lived if the situation along the border were to worsen yet benchmark indices declined around 1.3% over the past week, including a 1.1% fall on Friday, as concerns of a full-scale conflict prompted traders to liquidate their bets ahead of the weekend."There was apprehension among investors, especially at the fag end of the week, due to the rising tensions between India and Pakistan, which led to lightened positions," said Lakshmi Iyer, CEO-Investment & Strategy, Kotak Alternate Asset Managers. "The ceasefire is a big respite and is expected to trigger a relief rally on Monday."Iyer noted that while markets may react positively to de-escalation, a sharp upmove is could remain choppy in the near term as geopolitical developments continue to weigh on sentiment, according to truce between India and Pakistan is shrouded in an uneasy calm, as both countries have accused each other of violating the Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the market's fear gauge, surged 16.4% to 21.63 over the past five sessions, indicating heightened risk perception among portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth a net ₹3,798 crore on Friday-turning sellers for the first time in 16 trading sessions. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth ₹7,278 crore. So far in May, FPIs have bought equities worth ₹9,257.95 crore after purchasing ₹3,416.08 crore in April."The markets were holding up despite the geopolitical noise. Now that some uncertainty has receded, they are expected to breathe a little easier," said Mahesh Patil, CIO, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Patil said traders who built bearish positions ahead of the weekend could not rush to liquidate their positions and that could push the markets higher. Still, he warned that current valuations remain elevated, which may limit any sharp also expects the upside to be capped."When the conflict first broke out, the markets didn't crash in a big way. So while there may not be a sharp rebound, respite buying is expected now that some uncertainty is out of the way," Iyer noted that domestic investors had been cautious in deploying funds, and this withheld capital could gradually enter the markets in the coming days.
Time of India
08-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India to outpace global peers as growth slows worldwide: Kotak Report
Global economic growth is set to slow in the coming months, with major economies such as the United States and China projected to experience notable deceleration. However, India is expected to outpace global peers amid this global downturn, according to a recent report by Kotak Alternate Asset Managers. The report forecasts a 90 basis point slowdown in the US economy and a 60 basis point decline for China, while highlighting that India is expected to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major economy. A key factor supporting India's economic resilience is its strong manufacturing performance, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures continuing to indicate positive momentum—setting India apart from many global counterparts. Operation Sindoor Operation Sindoor: Several airports in India closed - check full list Did Pak shoot down Indian jets? What MEA said India foils Pakistan's attack on Jammu airport: What we know so far Despite mixed signals from high-frequency indicators, India's overall macroeconomic outlook remains robust. Although credit growth and government expenditure have shown some moderation, the report points to other encouraging trends that continue to support economic activity. Among them is a favourable monsoon forecast, which is expected to lift rural demand and improve the inflation outlook, providing a timely boost to the agricultural sector. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Legendary Stars: Timeless Icons Boite A Scoop Undo Indian equity markets have also displayed significant resilience, despite softer-than-expected Q4 FY25 earnings and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. The report notes that markets have rebounded sharply from recent lows. Investor sentiment remains buoyant, with Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continuing as net buyers and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) returning to net buying positions for the second consecutive month. A declining risk premium on Indian assets has contributed to expanding equity valuations. Still, the report cautions that volatility may persist in the near term due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The Indian rupee (INR) has also gained strength against the US dollar, backed by a combination of factors such as a weaker dollar, renewed FPI inflows, and falling oil prices—all of which have improved India's trade balance. However, the upside in the rupee has been partly capped by the Reserve Bank of India, which used the currency's strength as an opportunity to build foreign exchange reserves. These reserves have surged by USD 50 billion, reaching USD 688 billion in just two months. Looking ahead, the narrowing yield gap between Indian and US 10-year bonds, along with sustained dollar weakness, is expected to keep the rupees relatively strong in the short term Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
India Gazette
08-05-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
"Global growth set to decline; India relatively better placed" : Kotak
New Delhi [India], May 8 (ANI): Global economic growth is expected to decelerate in the coming months, with major economies like the US and China likely to see sharp slowdowns. However, India is expected to remain relatively resilient amid this global trend, according to a report by Kotak Alternate Asset Managers. The report noted that the US economy is projected to slow down by 90 basis points, while China's growth could reduce by 60 basis points. However, India ti said is expected to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major economy. One of the key indicators of India's economic strength is its robust manufacturing activity. The report mentioned that the country's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) numbers continue to show strong momentum, setting it apart from many of its global peers. Despite mixed signals from high-frequency indicators, India's macroeconomic outlook remains healthy. While credit growth and government spending have been somewhat subdued, other positive developments are supporting the economy. Notably, a favourable monsoon forecast is expected to boost rural demand and improve the inflation outlook, which could provide timely support to the agricultural sector. The report also added that Indian equity markets have also shown remarkable resilience. Even though the fourth-quarter earnings for FY25 have been softer than expected and geopolitical tensions with Pakistan are brewing, the markets have rebounded sharply from recent lows. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have continued to remain net buyers, and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net buyers for the second consecutive month. A falling risk premium on Indian assets has also contributed to the expansion in equity valuations. However, the report cautions that markets may remain volatile in the near term due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The Indian Rupee (INR) has continued to strengthen against the US Dollar, supported by several factors including a weaker dollar, renewed FPI inflows, and declining oil prices, which have improved India's trade balance. The upside for the INR was somewhat limited as the Reserve Bank of India took advantage of the currency's strength to build up its foreign exchange reserves, which surged by USD 50 billion to reach USD 688 billion in just two months. Looking ahead, the narrowing yield gap between Indian and US 10-year government bonds, combined with persistent USD weakness, is expected to keep the Indian rupee relatively strong in the near term. (ANI)
