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Israel stock market shrugs off war concerns as TA-125 trades near record
Even as the West Asia conflict sent shock waves to global stock market and sent crude oil prices soaring, Israel's TA-125 rose 2.7 per cent on Monday to a fresh high of 2,790.07. Since the beginning of the latest attacks on June 13, the index has risen nearly 3 per cent, while the MSCI Asia ex Japan has seen a mere 0.7 per cent gain.
In the year so far, the TA-125 index has risen 14 per cent, while the MSCI Asia ex Japan and MSCI World indices are up 12 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively.
Israel's stock market is at an all-time high, said Jitendra Gohil, chief investment strategist at Kotak Alternate Asset Managers, and it is a preconceived notion that geopolitical tensions may lead to stock market corrections.
"In fact, heightened geopolitical tensions can lead to more fiscal and monetary easing, and the market loves loose policies. This won't be true in the case of countries that face sanctions (Iran, Venezuela, etc.), but today the US's ability to effectively implement sanctions has eroded. Look at Russia. The world is a very different place today, with multipolar forces emerging," Gohil said.
On Friday, the Israeli military began airstrikes against Iran, targeting nuclear locations to block Tehran from developing atomic weapons, in an operation dubbed 'Rising Lion'. Israel's Defence Minister, Israel Katz, declared a state of emergency shortly after the strikes. The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, was killed in the strikes.
The risk-off sentiment soared with oil prices spiking over 10 per cent, making it the biggest weekly gain since 2022. Brent prices can touch $150 a barrel (bbl) — up a whopping 103 per cent from the current levels — in the worst-case scenario if the Israel–Iran geopolitical tensions escalate, suggest analysts. Read more
Back home, stock markets remained cautious on hopes that high oil prices would not always dampen market sentiment. The BSE Sensex index was at 81,604.18, lower by 192 points or 0.23 per cent, while the Nifty50 was at 24,890.2, down 56 points or 0.22 per cent.
Despite the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict globally, stock markets are steady and resilient, according to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments. "The decline in the US volatility index CBOE suggests that markets are unlikely to correct sharply unless the conflict takes a dramatic turn for the worse."
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