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Despite Weak June Performance, China Ends First Half of 2025 with Strongest Gold Price Rally in Nine Years
Despite Weak June Performance, China Ends First Half of 2025 with Strongest Gold Price Rally in Nine Years

See - Sada Elbalad

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • See - Sada Elbalad

Despite Weak June Performance, China Ends First Half of 2025 with Strongest Gold Price Rally in Nine Years

Waleed Farouk According to a report by Ray Jia, Head of Research, China at the World Gold Council, China concluded the first half of 2025 with its strongest gold price performance in nine years. This was supported by robust investment demand and sustained central bank purchases, despite ongoing weakness in consumer and jewelry demand. Record Price Performance in H1 2025 The LBMA Gold Price PM in U.S. dollars rose by 23%, while the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price (SHAUPM) in Chinese yuan climbed 21%, marking the best semi-annual performance since 2016. This strength was driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, escalating geopolitical risks, and continued central bank buying—factors highlighted by the World Gold Council's proprietary return attribution model. Persistent Weakness in Physical Demand Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) dropped 10% month-over-month in June to 90 tonnes. Total H1 withdrawals stood at 678 tonnes, down 18% year-over-year and 22% below the 10-year average. Elevated gold prices, declining consumer confidence, and ongoing restructuring of the jewelry sector weighed heavily on demand for gold products. Retailers remained cautious with inventory restocking due to high price levels. Even bar and coin investment saw a slowdown in June amid limited gold price fluctuations. Record Inflows into Gold ETFs Chinese gold-backed ETFs recorded positive inflows of CNY 1 billion (USD 137 million) in June. The funds attracted CNY 64 billion (USD 8.8 billion) in H1 2025—the highest on record. Total assets under management (AUM) rose to CNY 153 billion (USD 21 billion). Combined gold holdings surged 74% to reach 200 tonnes. Record Futures Market Activity Though SHFE gold futures trading volume dropped 39% in June to 380 tonnes per day, the H1 daily average reached 534 tonnes, an all-time high. High prices, market volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty drove investor activity in futures contracts. PBOC Continues Gold Buying The People's Bank of China (PBoC) added 2 tonnes of gold in June, marking its eighth consecutive month of purchases. Total H1 purchases reached 19 tonnes, bringing official reserves to 2,299 tonnes. The share of gold in total foreign reserves rose from 5.5% in December 2024 to 6.7% by June 2025. Imports Decline Chinese customs data showed net gold imports fell to 89 tonnes in May, down 21% month-over-month and 31% year-over-year. The decline reflects subdued physical demand and reduced withdrawals from the SGE during the same month. Outlook Consumer confidence and the restructuring of China's jewelry industry will likely continue to drag down physical gold demand in H2 2025. However, I believe investment demand for gold will remain strong, driven by global volatility, monetary policy shifts, and fluctuations in alternative asset performance. read more CBE: Deposits in Local Currency Hit EGP 5.25 Trillion Morocco Plans to Spend $1 Billion to Mitigate Drought Effect Gov't Approves Final Version of State Ownership Policy Document Egypt's Economy Expected to Grow 5% by the end of 2022/23- Minister Qatar Agrees to Supply Germany with LNG for 15 Years Business Oil Prices Descend amid Anticipation of Additional US Strategic Petroleum Reserves Business Suez Canal Records $704 Million, Historically Highest Monthly Revenue Business Egypt's Stock Exchange Earns EGP 4.9 Billion on Tuesday Business Wheat delivery season commences on April 15 News Israeli-Linked Hadassah Clinic in Moscow Treats Wounded Iranian IRGC Fighters News China Launches Largest Ever Aircraft Carrier Sports Former Al Zamalek Player Ibrahim Shika Passes away after Long Battle with Cancer Videos & Features Tragedy Overshadows MC Alger Championship Celebration: One Fan Dead, 11 Injured After Stadium Fall Lifestyle Get to Know 2025 Eid Al Adha Prayer Times in Egypt Arts & Culture South Korean Actress Kang Seo-ha Dies at 31 after Cancer Battle News "Tensions Escalate: Iran Probes Allegations of Indian Tech Collaboration with Israeli Intelligence" News Flights suspended at Port Sudan Airport after Drone Attacks Arts & Culture Hawass Foundation Launches 1st Course to Teach Ancient Egyptian Language Sports Get to Know 2025 WWE Evolution Results

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