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Trump's trade war to weigh on markets again next week as investors struggle to move on
Trump's trade war to weigh on markets again next week as investors struggle to move on

CNBC

time23-05-2025

  • Business
  • CNBC

Trump's trade war to weigh on markets again next week as investors struggle to move on

President Donald Trump's latest tariff threat again highlighted the challenge for investors eager to move on from a global trade war that can reassert itself at any moment. Stocks dropped Friday, after Trump in a Truth Social post said he would slap a 50% tariff on the European Union starting June 1, while separately warning Apple that it would have to start paying a 25% levy on iPhones not made in the U.S. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled as much as 505 points, or 1.2%, before bouncing back. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were also lower on the day. The tariff rollercoaster is going to make investors lose their appetite for buying dips because every time the market rebounds, they get kicked in the teeth. President at ClientFirst Strategy Mitchell Goldberg Some investors are finding Trump's threats hard to take seriously, seeing them as a negotiating tactic for a president unhappy with the lack of progress made on trade talks with the EU — even as the latter was the U.S.'s largest trading partner by imports in 2024. "This reaction is probably not going to be as bad as the post-'liberation day' reaction, just because the market now kind of has as part of its assumption the idea that Trump will end up caving," said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. "So, that's kind of part of the playbook at this point." Still, Trump's warning is a reminder that the overarching threat of tariffs, which investors had mostly left on the backburner, will continue to be an issue for the stock market, possibly for the duration of Trump's presidency. Tom Graff, chief investment officer at Facet Wealth, said Trump's instincts to "take a maximalist approach ... ratchets up the risk of a bad outcome." Since the April 7 intraday lows, the S & P 500 has soared more than 20%. On Friday, however, the broader index was headed for a weekly pullback of more than 2%, hurt by the latest trade headlines. Earlier in the week, U.S. deficit concerns drove a spike higher in bond yields that also added pressure to equities. .SPX 5D mountain SPX 5-day chart There are other complications. Horizon Investments' Ladner, who does not expect that stocks will retest the April lows, worries that negotiations with the EU will take longer than investors are currently anticipating. He cited Trump's long antipathy toward the region. Trump posted Friday that the EU was "formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on TRADE." "I don't think he's gonna be as inclined to cave on the European thing that he was on the China situation, just because of his sort of personal feelings," Ladner said. "And we know that Trump shoots from the hip, and his personal feelings and instincts have a lot to do with his decision making process." "There is some chance the Trump will cave, but, you know, it probably is going to take longer than the China deal did to get some sort of resolution on this," Ladner continued. What's more, there's also the impact of Trump's repeated threats on weary investors who have repeatedly bought the dip throughout the tariff market chaos only to suffer through drops tied to the latest news on trade. "The tariff rollercoaster is going to make investors lose their appetite for buying dips because every time the market rebounds, they get kicked in the teeth," wrote Mitchell Goldberg, president at ClientFirst Strategy. Nvidia Nvidia is set to report earnings Wednesday after the bell. Investors are hoping that strong results and a hopeful outlook from the artificial intelligence darling could boost the recent outperformance in tech. Nvidia remains in negative territory for 2025 has rallied 20% this month. A stellar report could add to those gains, but any sign that the Jensen Huang-helmed company is struggling to deliver on its GPUs could dent investor confidence. "Nvidia, and everything surrounding Nvidia: I believe that these stocks can are the really the only ones that have that potential growth to really break us out of this sort of place where we have been, which is sort of struggling to get back to where we were, let's say, last November," said Mark Malek, CIO at Siebert Financial. Strong earnings from Nvidia would also come at an opportune time for the stock market, which has struggled over this week because of higher bond yields. On Friday, the major averages were headed for a losing week, with all three major averages lower by nearly 2%. — CNBC's Michelle Fox and Fred Imbert contributed to this report. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, May 26 NYSE closed for Memorial Day holiday. Tuesday, May 27 8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (April) 9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (March) 9:00 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI (March) 10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (May) 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (May) Earnings: AutoZone Wednesday, May 28 10:00 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (May) 2:00 pm. FOMC Minutes Earnings: Nvidia , HP , Synopsys , Agilent Technologies , Salesforce Thursday, May 29 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (05/17) 8:30 a.m. GDP second preliminary (Q1) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (05/24) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (April) Earnings: Costco Wholesale , Ulta Beauty , Dell Technologies , NetApp , Hormel Foods Friday, May 30 8:30 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (April) 8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (April) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (April) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (April) 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (April) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (April) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (May)

Investors Want Clarity From Trump After a Wild April for Stocks
Investors Want Clarity From Trump After a Wild April for Stocks

Yahoo

time30-04-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Investors Want Clarity From Trump After a Wild April for Stocks

(Bloomberg) -- April gave stock market investors a little bit of everything: Tears as share prices plunged when President Donald Trump started a global trade war, relief as they bounced back when he paused some of his harshest tariffs, and confusion as they rose despite increasing signs of economic turmoil. NYC Lost $9 Billion of Income to Miami, Palm Beach in Five Years New York City Transit System Chips Away at Subway Fare Evasion NYC's Congestion Toll Raised $159 Million in the First Quarter The Last Thing US Transit Agencies Should Do Now At Bryn Mawr, a Monumental Plaza Traces the Steps of Black History Now that the calendar is turning to May, Wall Street simply hopes for some clarity on the Trump administration's trade policies and Corporate America's growth expectations. But investors probably shouldn't hold their breath, as uncertainty appears to be the watchword at this point. Wednesday's trading was a prime example of that uneasiness. The S&P 500 Index plunged at the open, quickly falling as much as 2.3% after reports showed the US economy contracted in April for the first time since 2022 and that hiring slowed at US companies. But it clawed back through the day and then burst into the green about five minutes before the close to end the month on a seven-session winning streak. 'This month was like a classic V-shaped roller-coaster,' said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments LLC. 'We went from very bullish on April 1 to uber-bearish on April 3, and really just one thing changed. From here on the direction of travel needs to be clear.' Looking at the numbers, the stock market's swing in April is pretty remarkable. After Trump's tariff announcement on April 2, the S&P 500 plunged more 12% in four sessions. On April 9, Trump reversed himself, putting a 90-day pause on some of his most onerous levies, which sparked a 9.5% leap, the biggest one-day rally in 17 years. Since then, the market has drifted higher, with the S&P ending the month down less than 1%. Pain Trade Positioning But beneath the cautious rebound lurks an uneasy feeling of what's to come. 'When you look at positioning, it is extremely clear that the 'pain trade' from here is still higher,' said Ladner, who describes himself as a 'low-conviction bear' at the moment. Looking down the road, however, he sees several potentially bullish catalysts, such as one or multiple trade agreements, a tax cut and possibly a lower overall tariff rate after all the negotiations are done. Ladner is selling US equities in favor of international exposure right now, but he isn't moving to cash. And he's not alone. Inflows into equity funds have continue to be strong, but they're gravitating away from the US and into the rest of the world, according to data from Deutsche Bank AG on Friday. Positioning by systematic strategies is still very low, while discretionary investors have returned to almost neutral levels. Still, overall equity positioning has risen over the last two weeks, according to Deustche Bank's Parag Thatte, ticking higher since Trump announced the tariff pause. High Correlations Wall Street's single-minded focus on trade talks has pushed the correlation between S&P 500 members to the highest level since 2020. That means the market is moving as a monolith, which leaves few places for shelter if a calamity strikes. Rising Pessimism Meanwhile, investors are growing increasingly pessimistic. The closely watched American Association of Individual Investors survey shows that bearish sentiment — or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months — is unusually high and above the historical average for the 21st time in 23 weeks. Closing Strong Ironically, extreme bearishness and low positioning are typically a recipe for sharp rebounds, which is what's happening in the S&P 500. Its six-day winning streak was its longest since November, when Trump was elected, and the gain over those sessions was the biggest since March 2022. Still, market pros urge caution. The drawdown in the S&P 500 this year is in line with declines seen in previous shallow recessions or mini-stagflation periods, HSBC strategists wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. Some volatility traders are echoing similar concerns — don't get too comfortable and hedge while it's cheap. Low-Cost Insurance The price of one-month put contracts on the benchmark index, which are used to protect against equity declines, relative to calls — which benefit from rising stock prices — is at its lowest level since April 2. Uncertainty Remains The worry among strategists and investors is that the sharp reversal in stocks from the lows of earlier in the month is flying in the face of still-high levels of uncertainty. While Trump and his administration have relented on more tariffs since the initial pause — such as the reprieve for the auto industry — a resolution to the global trade war he started remains far off. And the president continues to add risks to the mix, like his repeated attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is a trusted figure on Wall Street. On Tuesday, Trump went after Powell again as he doubled down on his economic policies and tariff regime. All of this creates a rebound that may be real but is unlikely to last, said Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. 'This market seems to be in the bottoming/consolidation process we tend to see after sharp declines,' Christopher said. 'While we may not see a complete retest of the recent lows, we will probably revisit that area.' --With assistance from Yiqin Shen, Bernard Goyder and Matt Turner. (Updates trading in third paragaph and S&P 500 montly return in fifth paragraph.) Made-in-USA Wheelbarrows Promoted by Trump Are Now Made in China As More Women Lift Weights, Gyms Might Never Be the Same Why US Men Think College Isn't Worth It Anymore Eight Charts Show Men Are Falling Behind, From Classrooms to Careers The Mastermind of the Yellowstone Universe Isn't Done Yet ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio

Ladner: 'Orderly meetings' necessary after work session ends in chaos
Ladner: 'Orderly meetings' necessary after work session ends in chaos

Yahoo

time30-04-2025

  • Yahoo

Ladner: 'Orderly meetings' necessary after work session ends in chaos

Apr. 30—Council President Jacob Ladner says he is determined to hold "orderly" City Council meetings, and he isn't ruling out ending the public comment period after Monday's work session descended into chaos and at least one arrest. The council had 13 people sign up for public comment, with many more in attendance, to express their frustration over John "LJ" Scott Jr., a man arrested April 15 by Decatur police after a struggle that followed Scott's apparent mental health crisis. Scott was transported to the Morgan County Jail where he had an unspecified medical issue and later died at Huntsville Hospital. An autopsy is pending and the incident is being investigated by the Madison County Sheriff's Office. Only eight of the 13 who signed up got to speak. Obviously frustrated, they focused on the deaths of Steve Perkins, shot to death by a police officer in September 2023, and Scott, both Black men. The last speaker ended her time with a curse word and, when Ladner started to warn her not to use profanity, other audience members began yelling profanity at him. Ladner tried banging his gavel, but the yelling increased, so he ended the meeting. Some people left the council chambers, but a few stood and yelled at Ladner and the council for ending the meeting. One extremely upset woman went to the podium and started yelling, prompting Councilman Billy Jackson to come off the dais and attempt to calm her down. Meanwhile, one person apparently got into a scuffle with police at the council chamber's entrance and was arrested. Later, an officer was seen limping outside of the Police Department. Police charged William Landers, 28, of Trinity, with disorderly conduct and resisting arrest, both misdemeanors. He was released from the Morgan County Jail after posting bond, according to jail records. Many of those in attendance followed Landers and the officers to the Police Department's City Hall entrance and continued to protest. They eventually left City Hall. Ladner said Tuesday that he's trying to stay patient during the council's public comment period, "but we've got to have an orderly meeting." A large number of people have been attending council meetings to question and protest the city's reaction to the fatal police shooting of Perkins. Ladner said audiences at council meetings heard his repeated threats that he would shut down previous meetings over the use of profanity and attacks on individual city employees. "It's always been a rule (against profanity), but the gavel wasn't working Monday night," Ladner said. "This is a business meeting, so there has to be order." Ladner wouldn't rule out ending public comment periods, if necessary. "I'm going to do whatever it takes to get order in the meetings," Ladner said. City Attorney Herman Marks said state law does not require the City Council to allow public comment, "except when there's a public hearing. Of course, it's always better to have public comment." Marks said the City Council can meet as a body and set the meeting format, and then the council president sets the agenda. "(Ladner) has made it clear that a council member can ask or make a suggestion if he or she wants to make an adjustment (to the agenda or meeting format)," Marks said. This City Council, with Ladner as president, holds more public comment time than previous councils. The council didn't hold a public comment period at the work sessions until after the Perkins shooting. It also allows for public comments on agenda items and again after the meetings and work sessions. Previously, a person could speak for three minutes at the council meeting, but Ladner changed public comment so the person would be warned at three minutes to begin wrapping up comments and finish by four minutes. Ladner is usually flexible on time limits. There has been pressure in the last 19 months, especially from Mayor Tab Bowling, to end the public comment period. Jackson and Councilman Kyle Pike declined to comment on Ladner's decision to end Monday's meeting. Councilmen Carlton McMasters and Hunter Pepper were absent from the meeting. — or 256-340-2432

Council to 'move forward' with Mack in police chief hunt
Council to 'move forward' with Mack in police chief hunt

Yahoo

time22-04-2025

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

Council to 'move forward' with Mack in police chief hunt

Apr. 22—The Decatur City Council agreed Monday to "move forward with the process" with the only candidate they've interviewed for police chief. The council instructed Human Resources Director Richelle Sandlin to begin a background check on Birmingham Police Department Capt. Torry Mack. Council President Jacob Ladner said a good result could lead to the city offering the police chief job to Mack. "They will then go forward with offering a contract as part of the process," Ladner said. Sandlin also reported she received two more applications for planning director. She said she hopes that she can schedule interviews in the coming weeks. The application period for Parks and Recreation recently closed. The Youth Services director's application period closes April 30. Ladner said he hopes Sandlin will have background check results on Mack finished by the council's April 28 work session. The city received 18 applicants seeking to replace former chief Todd Pinion, who stepped down in March. The council chose to interview three of six candidates recommended by Sandlin, and two of them withdrew from consideration. Mack was the only candidate to interview Wednesday at Turner-Surles Recreation Center. The City Council interviewed the 30-year veteran of Birmingham PD for almost two hours. He is division manager of Special Operations, which includes tactical operations like SWAT, K-9, explosives, Crime Suppression Unit and snipers. He also has served on special enforcement, a crime-reduction team, an intelligence unit and a recon unit. He also previously was director of Birmingham PD's training program, did a short stint in Internal Affairs and worked in SWAT. However, he has never been a police chief. Mack had a 21-year military career in the U.S. Army and obtained the rank of master sergeant. "I thought Mack did a really good job on his interview," Ladner said. "His resume speaks for itself." Ladner estimated that close to 20 people who worked for Mack or supervised him reached out to him with "a lot of really good feedback." Among those supporters are members of the Standing In Power group. Councilman Billy Jackson said he's good with moving forward with the hiring process. "If it works out that he gets the nod through the process, I don't have any reservations about Mr. Mack at all," Jackson said. "We can always try to turn over everything that we possibly can, but I have no doubts about things we've experienced and seen from him." Councilman Kyle Pike said he appreciates Mack's continued interest in the Decatur Police Department's chief opening when other people were dropping out. "I thought last week he showed a great deal of leadership," Pike said. "He showed his ability to support his department and allow them to do what they're supposed to do. Without a doubt he has the law enforcement background, but he showed Wednesday his leadership ability and his willingness to work with others." Councilman Carlton McMasters said he's OK with moving forward with a background check on Mack, but he still wants to interview a second candidate. He pointed out the city is still accepting applications for police chief. Sandlin said she received two more last week, but they did not meet the qualifications for the police chief opening. "Capt. Mack had a really good interview, but in an ideal situation we would interview more than one person," McMasters said. "We may not have the luxury of an ideal situation, if we don't get any more (qualified) applicants." Councilman Hunter Pepper was absent from Monday's meeting. — or 256-340-2432

Despite TVA holdup, Ingalls Harbor development still in the plans
Despite TVA holdup, Ingalls Harbor development still in the plans

Yahoo

time17-04-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Despite TVA holdup, Ingalls Harbor development still in the plans

Apr. 17—The $30 million development at Ingalls Harbor remains on hold but is getting closer to becoming a reality as the developer seeks approval from the Tennessee Valley Authority, officials said Wednesday. Developer Patrick Lawler, who developed Guntersville's 55,000-square-foot City Harbor, announced in March 2023 that he is planning a roughly 75,000-square-foot mixed-use development with condominiums, restaurants, retail stores and entertainment options on the Tennessee River just west of Ingalls Harbor. A portion of the development, including boat slips, would stretch over the river. The Decatur City Council approved $5 million in economic incentives plus land for Lawler as sole managing partner of Ingalls Harbor LLC. The city is providing 5 acres while Decatur Utilities is adding 2 acres of its property next to the wastewater treatment plant. The City Council voted last week to extend the agreement for three years, although City Attorney Herman Marks said he doesn't believe they will need all of the allotted time. Council President Jacob Ladner said they have been working with TVA on deed modifications to the land policy that the federal utility provider established in 2006. The main issue of discussion related to the development is the problem with strict TVA deed restrictions from 1954. Lawler plans to build and sell about 40 condominiums, but the deed limits how close to the river residential properties can be. According to TVA, "All construction or alterations to the shoreline require TVA approval, even minor changes to the dock. Second stories on docks can be constructed as an open deck with railing, but they cannot be covered with a roof or enclosed with siding or screening." Ladner said he expects movement on the project soon. "There's been a lot of back and forth and a lot of discussion," Ladner said. "The last update I got was very positive that we could get a resolution coming in the next few weeks." Mayor Tab Bowling said one issue that has slowed down approval is the TVA board is unable to get the necessary quorum to meet. President Donald Trump fired Huntsville attorney Joe Ritch as chairman of the TVA Board of Directors on April 1. He fired board member Michelle Moore on March 27. That leaves only four board members. According to the TVA bylaws, the board must have five members for a quorum. Without five members, the board can continue operations that were established when it had a quorum, but does not have the authority to "direct TVA into new areas of activity, to embark on new programs, or to change TVA's existing direction." Ladner said he believes this situation will be solved quickly and the TVA board will resume meeting. If they're unable to solve the issue through TVA and its board, Ladner said there are other alternatives. One is adding some language to the federal Water Resources Development Act, but he said the problem with this law is Congress only considers it every two years. "If we have to go that route, it would be 2026 before the next WRDA," Ladner said. Lawler said he's still committed to the project. "We'll get through this," Lawler said. "It's just a timely process. I'll get to work as soon as I can." He pointed out that Guntersville's City Harbor took five years to complete. — or 256-340-2432

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