
Trump's trade war to weigh on markets again next week as investors struggle to move on
President Donald Trump's latest tariff threat again highlighted the challenge for investors eager to move on from a global trade war that can reassert itself at any moment. Stocks dropped Friday, after Trump in a Truth Social post said he would slap a 50% tariff on the European Union starting June 1, while separately warning Apple that it would have to start paying a 25% levy on iPhones not made in the U.S. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled as much as 505 points, or 1.2%, before bouncing back. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were also lower on the day. The tariff rollercoaster is going to make investors lose their appetite for buying dips because every time the market rebounds, they get kicked in the teeth. President at ClientFirst Strategy Mitchell Goldberg Some investors are finding Trump's threats hard to take seriously, seeing them as a negotiating tactic for a president unhappy with the lack of progress made on trade talks with the EU — even as the latter was the U.S.'s largest trading partner by imports in 2024. "This reaction is probably not going to be as bad as the post-'liberation day' reaction, just because the market now kind of has as part of its assumption the idea that Trump will end up caving," said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. "So, that's kind of part of the playbook at this point." Still, Trump's warning is a reminder that the overarching threat of tariffs, which investors had mostly left on the backburner, will continue to be an issue for the stock market, possibly for the duration of Trump's presidency. Tom Graff, chief investment officer at Facet Wealth, said Trump's instincts to "take a maximalist approach ... ratchets up the risk of a bad outcome." Since the April 7 intraday lows, the S & P 500 has soared more than 20%. On Friday, however, the broader index was headed for a weekly pullback of more than 2%, hurt by the latest trade headlines. Earlier in the week, U.S. deficit concerns drove a spike higher in bond yields that also added pressure to equities. .SPX 5D mountain SPX 5-day chart There are other complications. Horizon Investments' Ladner, who does not expect that stocks will retest the April lows, worries that negotiations with the EU will take longer than investors are currently anticipating. He cited Trump's long antipathy toward the region. Trump posted Friday that the EU was "formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on TRADE." "I don't think he's gonna be as inclined to cave on the European thing that he was on the China situation, just because of his sort of personal feelings," Ladner said. "And we know that Trump shoots from the hip, and his personal feelings and instincts have a lot to do with his decision making process." "There is some chance the Trump will cave, but, you know, it probably is going to take longer than the China deal did to get some sort of resolution on this," Ladner continued. What's more, there's also the impact of Trump's repeated threats on weary investors who have repeatedly bought the dip throughout the tariff market chaos only to suffer through drops tied to the latest news on trade. "The tariff rollercoaster is going to make investors lose their appetite for buying dips because every time the market rebounds, they get kicked in the teeth," wrote Mitchell Goldberg, president at ClientFirst Strategy. Nvidia Nvidia is set to report earnings Wednesday after the bell. Investors are hoping that strong results and a hopeful outlook from the artificial intelligence darling could boost the recent outperformance in tech. Nvidia remains in negative territory for 2025 has rallied 20% this month. A stellar report could add to those gains, but any sign that the Jensen Huang-helmed company is struggling to deliver on its GPUs could dent investor confidence. "Nvidia, and everything surrounding Nvidia: I believe that these stocks can are the really the only ones that have that potential growth to really break us out of this sort of place where we have been, which is sort of struggling to get back to where we were, let's say, last November," said Mark Malek, CIO at Siebert Financial. Strong earnings from Nvidia would also come at an opportune time for the stock market, which has struggled over this week because of higher bond yields. On Friday, the major averages were headed for a losing week, with all three major averages lower by nearly 2%. — CNBC's Michelle Fox and Fred Imbert contributed to this report. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, May 26 NYSE closed for Memorial Day holiday. Tuesday, May 27 8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (April) 9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (March) 9:00 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI (March) 10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (May) 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (May) Earnings: AutoZone Wednesday, May 28 10:00 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (May) 2:00 pm. FOMC Minutes Earnings: Nvidia , HP , Synopsys , Agilent Technologies , Salesforce Thursday, May 29 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (05/17) 8:30 a.m. GDP second preliminary (Q1) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (05/24) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (April) Earnings: Costco Wholesale , Ulta Beauty , Dell Technologies , NetApp , Hormel Foods Friday, May 30 8:30 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (April) 8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (April) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (April) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (April) 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (April) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (April) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (May)
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Yahoo
31 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Meet the Only S&P 500 Stock That Yields Over 10%. Here's Why It Could Be Worth Buying in June.
Dow Inc. is under pressure due to weak customer demand, global competition, and high costs. Management doesn't want to cut the dividend, but it could be a good choice given cost pressures. Even if Dow cut its dividend in half, it would still have an excellent yield. 10 stocks we like better than Dow › Commodity chemical giant Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) is hovering around a five-year low and is now down around 50% from its spin-off price when DowDuPont split into three separate companies in April 2019. Dow has kept its dividend the same for the last six years. But since the stock has been beaten down so much, Dow's yield has jumped to a whopping 10.3% at the time of this writing -- making it the highest-yielding component in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC). Here's why Dow's challenges persist and why the dividend stock could be worth buying now, even if the company reduces its payout. Dow makes commodity chemicals -- mainly plastics and synthetic rubber. Dow has hundreds of products that are used either directly or indirectly across virtually every industry in the economy -- from electronics to food and beverage packing, textiles, construction, industrial applications, healthcare, cosmetics, household products like detergents and dish soaps, and more. Since these products are commodities, they lack pricing power. This is similar to the dynamic in oil and gas, where a gallon of unleaded gasoline sold at ExxonMobil is virtually the same as a gallon sold at Chevron. Consumers will largely make a purchase decision based on price, not brand. So Dow must achieve scale and operating leverage to ensure it can produce products at a competitive cost relative to its peers. Economic growth typically coincides with higher commodity chemical demand. But lately, two factors have been working against Dow. Demand is low across several end markets due to higher borrowing costs from elevated interest rates and slowing economic growth in key markets -- namely Europe. Another major challenge is competition. China has been ramping up investments in manufactured goods -- from chemicals to solar panels -- to take market share on the global stage. If China can produce chemicals sold by Dow for a cheaper price, it can undercut Dow on pricing. Dow is also working to become a more sustainable company by investing in plastic waste recycling and the world's first net-zero emissions integrated ethylene cracker -- known as its Path2Zero project in Alberta, Canada. However, on its first-quarter 2025 earnings call, Dow said that it is pausing Path2Zero to reduce its spending. Dow estimates that the pause will save the company $1 billion and reduce enterprise spending to $2.5 billion from $3.5 billion. Dow's latest quarter showed some signs of improvement, as it was the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year volume growth. But net sales still fell 3% due to a lack of pricing power -- which illustrates that demand is improving but competition is challenging. Dow's operating margin has gone from pre-pandemic levels around 8%, to 2022 highs in the mid-teens, to just 3.3% currently. As you can see in the chart, Dow's stock price is under pressure due to declining revenue and margins. The company's profit margin, which accounts for interest and taxes, is less than 1%. Dow is converting just $0.69 for every $100 in sales into profit -- which is unsustainable. It's also worth mentioning that Dow is free-cash-flow (FCF) negative, meaning that its operations can't support its dividend expense, so it has to rely on other means, such as debt. Since Dow isn't producing enough cash or earnings to cover its dividend, it can either sell assets, pull back on spending, take on more debt, cut the payout, or a blend of multiple ideas. As mentioned, Dow did pause its Path2Zero project, which could reduce its long-term earnings growth but will save on near-term expenses. On May 1, Dow completed the sale of a 40% equity stake in Diamond Infrastructure Solutions, which has infrastructure assets along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The sale netted Dow with $2.4 billion in initial cash proceeds, with the potential for $600 million more in proceeds if an option is exercised. Dow spent $494 million on dividends in its recent quarter, so the sale alone can cover the dividend expense for roughly five quarters. But selling assets or taking on debt to cover dividends is like plugging holes in a sinking ship. A preferred approach is to get the ship afloat -- or back to higher margins and consistent FCF -- so that operations can cover the dividend, and ideally, still have cash left over to pay down debt or buy back stock. In addition to savings from Path2Zero and the asset sale, Dow is also receiving around $1 billion in proceeds from a court settlement, and $1 billion in targeted cost savings by 2026, including $300 million in 2025. All told, Dow is on track to receive around $6 billion in additional cash or cost savings, most of which is coming this year. It's also worth mentioning that Dow has just $500 million in debt maturing in 2025 and no substantial debt maturities until 2027. So for now, its debt seems manageable. However, if Dow's margins remain depressed, it will have few choices but to cut the dividend. Dow's 10.3% yield is so high that the company could cut the payout by two-thirds and Dow would still yield 3.4% -- which is a solid source of passive income. When asked about the dividend on Dow's first-quarter earnings call, management responded that the cash and cost savings will help support the dividend, but that the situation is evolving and Dow will have to continue monitoring tariffs and macro factors. Dow may be a worthwhile turnaround play for investors who aren't banking on its dividend yield staying above 10%. If the company can use its cash proceeds wisely and continue managing its expenses, it could help weather the storm until economic conditions improve. However, it remains to be seen how Dow will hold up against the competition, even during a more normal operating environment. Dow has a long-term goal to have its dividend make up 45% of operating income. If Dow can get its operating margin back around the 8% to 9% range or if it cuts its dividend in half, it should be around that goal -- assuming it doesn't lose more pricing power. And if Dow can gradually improve its margins, the stock will begin to look dirt cheap. In sum, Dow has the cash and lack of debt obligations to afford its dividend in 2025. Going forward, I expect the company to cut its dividend at least in half or maybe by two-thirds if conditions don't improve, or it may decide to sustain the payout if there's a significant recovery in macro conditions. Risk-tolerant investors may want to scoop up shares of Dow now, with the stock at multiyear lows. In contrast, other investors may want to take a wait-and-see approach to Dow, as the next year will be pivotal in determining whether the company overcomes its present challenges or goes through with a dividend cut. Before you buy stock in Dow, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Dow wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $674,395!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $858,011!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 997% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 Daniel Foelber has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chevron. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Meet the Only S&P 500 Stock That Yields Over 10%. Here's Why It Could Be Worth Buying in June. was originally published by The Motley Fool
Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Ohio food banks strain as Trump slashes federal aid programs
By P.J. Huffstutter COLUMBUS, Ohio (Reuters) -On a warm spring morning, volunteers at the Mid-Ohio Food Collective plucked cucumbers from a greenhouse where a state psychiatric hospital once stood and the land lay fallow. Now the state's largest food bank is working that ground again, part of an urgent effort to shore up supplies amid shrinking federal support, including deep funding cuts under President Donald Trump. They are planting more. Prepping soil for fruit trees, and installing hives for honey. In the greenhouse, crates of romaine and butterhead lettuce were packed for delivery, bound for a pantry across town. Back at headquarters in Grove City, staff chased leads from grocers, manufacturers, even truckers looking to unload abandoned freight. Every pallet helped. Every pound counted. In a state that handed Trump three straight wins, where Trump flags flap near food aid flyers pinned on bulletin boards, the cost of his austerity push is starting to show. "Food banks will still have food," said Mid-Ohio CEO Matt Habash. "But with these cuts, you'll start to see a heck of a lot less food, or pantries and agencies closing. You're going to have a lot of hungry, and a lot less healthy, America." For decades, food banks like Mid-Ohio have been the backbone of the nation's anti-hunger system, channelling government support and donations from corporations and private donors into meals and logistics to support pantries at churches, non-profits and other organizations. If a food bank is a warehouse, food pantries are the store. Outside one of those – the Eastside Community Ministry pantry in rural Muskingum County, Ohio – Mary Dotson walked slow, cane in hand. The minute she stepped through the doors, her whole body seemed to lift. They call her Mama Mary here, as she's got the kind of voice that settles you down and straightens you out in the same breath. The regulars grin as Dotson, 77, pats shoulders, swaps recipes. She had tried to do everything right: built a career, raised five children, planned for the quiet years with her husband. But after he died and the kids moved away, the life they'd built slipped out of reach. Now her monthly Social Security check is $1,428. She budgets $70 of that for groceries, and she gets $23 in food benefits as well. She started as a volunteer at Eastside. Simple math convinced her to become a customer. 'I figured if I'm going to take these things,' Dotson said, 'I'm going to work here, too.' CAMPAIGN FODDER The Mid-Ohio Food Collective was born out of church basements and borrowed trucks nearly a half-century ago, when factory closures left more families hungry. It's now the state's largest food bank, feeding more than 35,000 Ohio families a week. It supplies more than 600 food pantries, soup kitchens, children and senior feeding sites, after-school programs and other partner agencies. When Trump returned to office in January, Mid-Ohio was already slammed. Pantry visits across its 20 counties hit 1.8 million last year, nearly double pre-COVID levels, and are continuing to grow this year. The biggest surge came from working people whose paychecks no longer stretch far enough due to pandemic-era inflation under Joe Biden's presidency, staff said. Then came the Trump cuts. In March, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cancelled the pandemic-era Local Food Purchase Assistance (LFPA) program, which funded about $500 million annually for food banks; and froze about $500 million in funding for The Emergency Food Assistance Program (TEFAP), one of the agency's core nutrition programs that supplies food to states to pass on to food banks for free. Much of the food Mid-Ohio distributes is donated, but donations alone can't stock a pantry consistently. Its current $11.1 million purchasing budget, built from federal, state and private dollars, helps fill the gaps. The March cuts wiped out about 22% of Mid-Ohio's buying power for next fiscal year – funds and food that staff are trying to replace. In early December, Mid-Ohio ordered 24 truckloads filled with milk, meat and eggs for delivery this spring and summer. The food came through the TEFAP program, using about $1.5 million in government funding. The first delivery was scheduled to show up April 9. The only thing to arrive was a cancellation notice. USDA said in a statement Secretary Brooke Rollins is working to ensure federal nutrition spending is efficient, effective and aligned with the administration's budget priorities. More cuts could come. Last month, the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives passed Trump's tax and spending bill. It called for $300 billion in cuts to food benefits for low income people under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which fed nearly 1.4 million Ohioans in January, according to the latest state data. If the cuts survive the Senate and are passed into law, it annually would cost Ohio at least $475 million in state funding to maintain current SNAP benefits, plus at least $70 million for administrative program costs, said Cleveland-based The Center for Community Solutions, an independent, nonpartisan policy research group. That would consume nearly every state-controlled dollar in Ohio's Department of Job and Family Services budget, roughly 95% of the general revenue meant to help fund everything from jobless claims to foster care. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and other lawmakers in this GOP supermajority state capitol, facing a constitutional requirement to pass a balanced budget, told Reuters that extra money for food banks isn't there. The proposed fiscal 2025 Ohio budget would set food bank funding back to 2019 levels – or about 23% less than what it spent this year, in a state where nearly one in three people qualify for help. Federal safety-net programs have become campaign fodder, too. At a recent Ohio Republican Party fundraiser in Richland County, Ohio, voters in suits and Bikers for Trump gear alike listened to Vivek Ramaswamy, the tech millionaire turned presidential candidate now running for Ohio governor. He spoke out against "a culture of dependence on the entitlement state that has festered in our country for 60 years." SAVING A PENNY So what happens when the government pulls back and supplies thin? If you're Victoria Brown and her small team of four, it means working the phones, chasing leads, watching markets, and moving fast. At Mid-Ohio's offices in Grove City, the food bank's director of sourcing sipped her coffee and squinted at her screen, eyes tracking the price-per-pound of cucumbers down to the cent. Saving a penny might seem inconsequential, unless you're trying to buy 40,000 pounds. In a supply chain that has relied on steady government support, food donations have become even more important, even as they grow more haphazard in both timing and what's available. Outside Brown's office, one staffer was trying to track down a shipment of pineapples. The rest were on the road, talking crop conditions with farmers, negotiating delivery times with suppliers and checking with grocers to see what might be sitting in the back, waiting for a second life. Brown glanced at her inbox, where new offers stacked up: At 11:10 a.m., one pallet of frozen chicken. I'll find out why it's being donated, a staffer promised. At 11:13 a.m., four pallets of cereal, bulk packed in industrial totes. Brown jotted a note for the volunteer coordinator: Anyone available to scoop a thousand pounds of cereal into small bags? RACING THE CLOCK Some of that food may be headed for Mid-Ohio's Norton Market, a modern food pantry built to feel like a real store in Columbus. The man in charge here is Denver Burkhart. He moves with the kind of precision the military teaches and life reinforces. At 35, he looks every bit the soldier he still is – broad-shouldered and lean, squared off at the edges. Fifteen years in the Army, two tours in Afghanistan, one in Iraq, now he has a mission back home until he serves overseas again with the Ohio Army National Guard. He started the morning as he always does: at a laptop in the back cramped office, racing to secure whatever free or discounted goods Brown's team had found. He leaned over the keyboard, one eye on the clock, the other on the blinking screen. The inventory system had just refreshed. The race was on to fill his mental list. His fingers clicked fast, steady, practiced. He hovered over baby formula. More moms have been showing up lately. Forty cases into the cart. Maybe too many – but if he waited, they'd be gone. "I rely heavily on the free product," he said. "Without it, we'd be hurting really bad." "WATER DAYS" Across town, Shannon Follins checks on her ice supply. It's for what she calls the "water days." Follins, 37, is raising three kids, including 3-year-old twins. One is autistic; he hasn't found his words yet. Until recently, Follins worked third shift at Waffle House for $5.25 an hour, and now she's studying for a degree in social services. Family brings groceries when they can. But it's the pantry at Broad Street Presbyterian Church, stocked by Mid-Ohio, that lets her make meals that feel like more than survival. One recent night, her daughter Essence twirled barefoot across their kitchen floor, dancing to the sounds of boiling pasta and chicken simmering in the pan. When there was nothing else to eat, she filled her kids' bellies with tap water and a mother's promise that tomorrow might be better. "It gives me a sense of security," she said, nodding toward the plastic jugs stacked in her freezer. If the government cuts food aid? She's prepared for more water days.


Politico
34 minutes ago
- Politico
Graham wants to punish Russia with ‘bone-crushing' sanctions. It could backfire.
Sen. Lindsey Graham has pledged that his expansive sanctions bill would be 'bone crushing' for the Russian economy. But if enacted, the South Carolina Republican's proposal to impose 500 percent tariffs on any country that buys Russian energy would effectively cut the U.S. off from some of the world's largest economies — including allies in Europe. 'A 500 percent tariff is essentially a hard decoupling,' said Kevin Book, managing director of Clear View Energy Partners, an energy research firm. Graham appeared to acknowledge as much on Wednesday, when he proposed a broad carve-out for countries that provide aid to Ukraine. This exemption would spare the European Union, which continues to import almost 20 percent of its gas from Russia. But experts remain skeptical that the sky-high tariffs proposed in the Sanctioning Russia Act are in any way feasible. India and China buy roughly 70 percent of Russian energy exports, but several other countries that buy any oil, gas or uranium from Moscow — and aren't included in the carve-out — could also be exposed to tariffs under the bill. The United States, which is still reliant on imports of enriched uranium from Russia to fuel its nuclear reactors, could also run afoul of the bill. Edward Fishman, a senior researcher with the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, said countries in the crosshairs of the bill would struggle to halt their imports of Russian energy overnight. Tariffs of 500 percent on imports of goods made in China would send prices soaring, disrupt supply chains and could drive up U.S. unemployment to recessionary levels. Most likely, it would lead to a screeching halt in U.S. trade with China. 'It would hurt Americans quite a bit,' Fishman said. The legislation's goal, co-sponsored by Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), is to starve Russia's war economy, which continues to earn hundreds of billions of dollars from energy exports. There is widespread support for the overall objective, with 82 senators signing on to Graham's bill so far, and growing support for a companion bill in the House. The bill is likely to change significantly as it moves through Congress and in consultations with the Trump administration, said Matt Zweig, senior policy director of FDD Action, a nonprofit advocacy organization affiliated with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. It may also take a long time. 'With sanctions legislation, you're also normally dealing with iterative processes where you would want to go through every nook and cranny,' Zweig said. Still, the widespread bipartisan support for the legislation suggests there is a high degree of support among lawmakers for tougher action on Russia. 'What Congress may be doing is pressuring the executive branch to act,' said Adam Smith, a partner at the law firm Gibson Dunn. 'There is a sense in the Senate that more sanctions on Russia need to be imposed, or ought to be imposed,' added Smith, who was a senior adviser to the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control during the Obama administration. Graham, the bill's most vocal Republican advocate, said as much in a meeting with reporters in Paris over the weekend, where he described the bill as 'one of the most draconian sanctions bills ever written.' 'The Senate is pissed that Russia is playing a game at our expense and the world's expense. And we are willing to do something we haven't been willing to do before — and that is go after people that have been helping Putin,' Graham said. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, dismissed concerns that the bill is too harsh. 'We need to make Putin understand he has to stop screwing around and come to the table. But we also need to follow it up and make clear we will be tough,' she said. Not everyone agrees. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who has long been skeptical about the effectiveness of sanctions to change the behavior of U.S. adversaries, bashed the bill on Monday as 'literally the most ill-conceived bill I've ever seen in Washington,' he said. 'It would be a worldwide embargo on 36 countries.' Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine have made little progress on peace talks. Officials from both countries met in Istanbul on Monday and agreed to a further prisoner swap, but failed to achieve any major breakthroughs. Graham and Blumenthal visited Ukraine, France and Germany during last week's congressional recess, where they discussed the sanctions bill, as well as efforts to push Russia to the negotiating table. The proposal has been welcomed by European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, who met with Graham in Berlin on Monday. 'Pressure works, as the Kremlin understands nothing else,' Von der Leyen said in a statement. 'These steps, taken together with U.S. measures, would sharply increase the joint impact of our sanctions.' Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated Monday that the chamber could take up the legislation later this month. Republican senators have said they would like to secure the approval of the White House before moving forward. The proposed use of blanket tariffs to target countries that continue to do business with Russia's energy sector is novel and appears to be pitched to Trump's interests. On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump viewed sanctions as 'a tool in his toolbox,' but declined to comment about his position on the bill. Trump appeared to be inching closer toward supporting the bill in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, which linked to an op-ed in The Washington Post supporting the legislation. Speaking in the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump indicated he wanted lawmakers to secure his approval before moving forward with the bill. 'They're waiting for me to decide on what to do,' he said, describing the legislation as a 'harsh bill.' The president has liberally wielded tariffs to advance his foreign policy agenda, but his implementation has been spotty. Wall Street has even adopted a trading strategy referencing Trump's capriciousness called TACO, which stands for 'Trump Always Chickens Out.' Tariffs of 145 percent on China, imposed in April, lasted a month before being dramatically scaled back to make way for trade talks, which have so far failed to secure a breakthrough. As it stands, the bill includes some levers that Trump could pull to forestall the tariffs, requiring the president to make a formal determination that Russia is refusing to negotiate or has violated any future peace agreement. Nahal Toosi, Joshua Berlinger, Phelim Kine and Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.