Latest news with #Laperriere
CNBC
2 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Not in the cards: Why some suspect stable trade may not follow Trump's tariff deals
The White House has signed a number of notable trade deals in the months since President Donald Trump slapped sharply higher tariffs on imports in early April. But some on Wall Street are cautioning that turmoil surrounding relations between the U.S. and its major trading partners is far from over. "Our views have been at odds with the investor consensus all year – and they still are," Andy Laperriere, head of U.S. policy at Piper Sandler, wrote in a report this summer. "The emerging narrative is that even though tariffs are high, we now have deals that will provide stability in trade policy. Therefore, economic actors can adjust to the new reality and move on," he said. In his firm's opinion, however, "trade stability is not in the cards." Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs went into effect on Aug. 7. The president had announced the sweeping levies back on April 2, and their initial size sent stocks reeling before a series of walk-backs from the White House eased investors' concerns. Stocks have since recovered these losses and gone on to score record highs. Lately, investors have been betting that Trump won't implement the most draconian of his trade plans, in what has come to be known as the TACO trade, short for "Trump Always Chickens Out." But the duties that Trump announced in early April have in large part taken hold. An exception is Vietnam, as shown by Piper Sandler data. Though still high, the rate on imports from Vietnam is less than half the level Trump threatened on April 2, Laperriere said. "One of the things that I think is interesting, that I think is underappreciated is that 'liberation day' mostly arrived," Laperriere said during a webinar earlier this month. "When you look at our major trading partners, most of what was put on the board on April 2 is on the board now." Catalysts for instability Trump's tariffs have faced significant legal challenges, with a federal appeals court judge seeming skeptical in late July of the president's claim that he has the authority to impose new tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA), a law that grants the president authority to regulate international commerce in response to a national emergency. Trump later warned U.S. courts against blocking his tariff policy. With the ongoing litigation and unsettled backdrop, uncertainty around the future of tariffs and trade persists. "If the courts find he is overstepping his authority to impose tariffs, which is highly likely, then the deals are null and void," Laperriere wrote in his report. "The Supreme Court is likely to rule against Trump's use of IEEPA within the next 10 months." One reason countries continue to negotiate is the assumption that Trump could pivot to use another authority if his IEEPA claim is struck down, said Ed Mills, managing director and Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. For example, Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 — the original Smoot-Hawley protectionist legislation — allows a president to implement tariffs of up to 50% on imported goods from countries that discriminate against U.S. commerce. Trump "has a history of taking the entire legal process to run out the clock," Mills told CNBC. "Tariffs are here to stay." Another driver of instability is the lack of details about the trade agreements that have so far been reached. For instance, Trump announced trade deals with Indonesia and the Philippines , but the specifics have yet to be confirmed. Additionally, officials from other countries including Japan and South Korea have disagreed with Trump on the terms of their agreements, signaling they have not yet been finalized. Unsettled "Foreign officials describe the few details differently than Trump and his top advisors, so even some of the high-level features have not been ironed out," Laperriere wrote. "These deals aren't settled and are built in part on phony promises. They could easily fall apart." On top of that, some trading partners, such as the European Union, are unlikely to live by their deals for very long, he claimed. Last month, Trump said that he reached a deal with the bloc , one that involves a 15% tariff on most European goods coming into the U.S. But European leaders and analysts criticized the deal shortly thereafter, calling it "unbalanced." Meanwhile, no final agreements have been reached between the U.S. and key partners such as Canada, Mexico and China . In fact, Trump last Monday delayed imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days. The president could meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping "around the [Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation] summit" in the fall, though "what happens at that meeting is a big wild card," Mills said. "There are going to be some countries where they're able to get to a final agreement and other countries where they fall apart," Mills said to CNBC. "I think that the larger the trading partner is, the more likely they are going to find a way to get to yes." 'Priced out' risk Even with some of Trump's tariffs going into effect, the stock market has soared to all-time highs this summer, underscoring optimism that the U.S. economy can withstand threats of high tariffs at home and abroad. Yet, Laperriere believes Wall Street isn't properly accounting for the potential impacts of the duties on the economy. For now, JPMorgan projects that tariffs could result in about a 1% hit to gross domestic product. Prediction markets have been pricing out recession risk, with the likelihood down to 10% over the weekend from about 70% in May. That suggests markets were either pricing in a recession scenario that was "too high in early May or it's too low now," Laperriere said. "The broader tariff risk is arguably completely priced out of markets, though individual companies and sectors that would be adversely impacted by them have generally underperformed," he wrote in a report in early August. Ultimately, perhaps, the biggest unknown remains the quixotic "Trump factor," which can't be quantified, Brian Gardner, Stifel's chief Washington policy strategist, said in an interview. "He can change his mind at any given time, and has, as some of these deals have progressed," he said. "There's nothing to prevent him from changing his mind again down the road."
CNBC
08-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Trump keeps saying he wants high tariffs, but market is refusing to listen
Wall Street may be taking the wrong lesson from the latest tariff updates. Stocks sold off Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 400 points after President Donald Trump announced steep new tariffs on goods from South Korea and Japan. Subsequent announcements brought that tally up to 14 countries. Trump also moved the "reciprocal" tariff deadline back to Aug. 1 from July. Still, the market response was relatively muted considering the impact sharply higher duties could have on inflation, consumer spending and corporate earnings, underscoring investors' now deeply-held conviction that the worst of the tariffs are behind them. Some market observers are concerned that's the wrong conclusion. "We've observed before that Trump is unusually transparent and keeps a lot more of his campaign promises than most presidents. We've urged investors to listen to Trump on trade and believe him," Andy Laperriere, head of U.S. policy research at Piper Sandler, wrote in a Monday note. "However, we would not recommend taking what his economic advisors say about trade at face value. They have been telling investors what they want to hear over the past 90 days, which is quite a bit different from the truth." "The truth is, Trump wants high tariffs. He has them, and he intends to send them higher. The muted reaction to yesterday's announcement of 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea highlights that investors have turned the page on the tariff story," Laperriere continued. "Investors may be done with tariffs, but we doubt Trump's tariff agenda is done with investors." .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, year to date Stocks accomplished a historic turnaround from their April lows, in part because of messaging out of the White House that convinced investors that Trump is mainly wielding tariffs as a negotiating tool, and will walk back his stance on the highest levies as talks continue. But the new tariffs announced Monday were similar to, or in a few cases even higher than, the duties that Trump initially announced on April 2 — suggesting the president's unwillingness to back down. Japan, for example, was hit with a 25% levy that's a little bit above the 24% rate Trump initially threatened to impose in April. Malaysia, another major trading partner, was hit with a 25% tariff rate that is higher than the previous 24%. "He wants 'deals' that largely or completely leave his tariffs in place. The message he sent yesterday: those who don't accept high U.S. tariffs and make concessions get the reciprocal tariffs," Piper's Laperriere wrote. "The message the market heard: he delayed again because he isn't serious about reciprocal tariffs." Taken together, the latest updates point to an effective tariff rate that will be higher than the consensus 10% the market was pricing in. UBS economists expect the current weighted average of tariffs in place is already around 16%, and said that could rise to roughly 21% if the April 2 rates return. "10% is the floor – and also not a ceiling," Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, wrote Monday, citing the recent deals with the United Kingdom and Vietnam as evidence that "countries are very unlikely to be assigned a baseline tariff rate of less than 10%." Elsewhere, Wolfe Research's Stephanie Roth wrote that the latest updates raise inflation concerns that could have an impact on the stock market rally. "Investors seem to be dismissing the upside risk to inflation. But someone ultimately has to pay the tariffs— likely showing up in CPI, profit margins, or (realistically) a combination of both," she wrote. "While we still expect the economy to hold up, this raises near-term risks to the equity rally so far and reinforces our base case that the Fed stays on hold this year given the looming inflationary impact."
Hamilton Spectator
28-06-2025
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
Mattawa applies for fitness centre upgrades
Mattawa is applying for provincial funds to upgrade the municipality's Fitness Centre. Specifically, the application asks for funding from the Northern Ontario Heritage Fund Corporation. The town is asking for $554,363. If received, the municipality would be responsible for contributing $138,591 towards the project and for covering any overages, if any occurred during work on the building at 1216 John Street. Municipal council passed a motion detailing these responsibilities, which is part of the application process. Mattawa's Chief Administrative Officer, Paul Laperriere, outlined the work to be done if funding is provided. 'There is some structural foundation work required. The foundation of the building is deteriorating.' 'That is a significant part of the cost,' Laperriere said. Washrooms would be upgraded to be fully accessible as well, Laperriere continued, and the entrance doors would also be made accessible. A ramp will also be installed to the front door. Once completed, 'The building will be 100 per cent compliant with the Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act.' Laperriere mentioned the $138,591 the town must contribute, 'Will be reduced by $55,140, which is the HST rebate, bringing our share down to around $83,000. There's another $11,000 in contingency, and if we don't require that, it will bring the cost down to $72,000.' Further, the Fitness Centre is within the same building as the Voyageur Curling Club. If the project gets funding and the upgrades are made, 'We intend to look for a contribution from them.' 'I'm expecting our costs will be in the order of $50,000 for this half-million-dollar project,' Lapierre said. If the project is approved, Lapierre expects work to begin in mid-2026. David Briggs is a Local Journalism Initiative reporter who works out of BayToday, a publication of Village Media. The Local Journalism Initiative is funded by the Government of Canada. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Flyers Offseason: Who Are the Best (or Worst) Candidates to Replace Ian Laperriere?
According to multiple reports, the Philadelphia Flyers are moving on from Ian Laperriere as the head coach of their farm team, the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. But how do they plan on replacing him? And with who? Laperriere, 51, had spent the last four years at the helm of the Phantoms, guiding them to three consecutive playoff appearances, but blowing a 2-1 series lead to the Hershey Bears in this year's Calder Cup playoffs. Notably, when starting goalie Parker Gahagen went down with an injury, Laperriere rolled with exiled journeyman Cal Petersen ahead of promising prospect Carson Bjarnason not once, but twice, losing the series 3-2 and failing to get one of his best youngsters a taste of playoff action. Not to mention that prospects like Massimo Rizzo and Alex Ciernik, two forwards the Flyers have varying degrees of investment in, didn't even play a playoff game for Laperriere. Everything the Flyers have said and done this offseason, especially as it relates to the hiring of Rick Tocchet, has pointed towards player development being of the utmost importance now and in the future. Laperriere couldn't get the job done, at least not consistently enough, and it is now apparently time for a change behind the bench in Allentown. If the Flyers have reason to believe looking internally is a good option, one candidate who could stand out is Phantoms assistant coach John Snowden, who just completed his second season in Lehigh Valley. Snowden, 44, coached his way up from the ECHL ranks, starting his coaching career as an assistant coach of the Orlando Solar Bears back in 2015-16. Snowden served as the head coach of the Newfoundland Growlers for parts of two seasons between 2018-19 and 2019-20, and later took over as their president of hockey operations for the 2020-21 season. For those curious, Flyers GM Danny Briere was the vice president of hockey operations for the ECHL's Maine Mariners at the same time. Report: Flyers Rejected Big Maple Leafs Trade for Rasmus Ristolainen According to a new report, the Philadelphia Flyers received a massive trade offer from the Toronto Maple Leafs for veteran defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen. GM Danny Briere and Co. didn't budge. Snowden's Growlers won the Kelly Cup in 2019 and went 42-17-1 in 60 games under his watch before the 2019-20 season was cancelled, so there's a history of success there, and Briere has gone up against him in the ECHL before. Indeed, Snowden is not the sexiest name or the most well-traveled option, but there's reason to believe he could do the job if called upon. One name that Flyers fans might be more familiar with is Jay McKee, a former Buffalo Sabres first-round pick who was teammates with Briere for parts of three seasons. Oh, and McKee was linked to the Flyers' head coaching job on more than one occasion, though some chalked it up to Briere trying to juice his old pal's name in coaching circles. Even if that was true, I don't think Briere does something like that without truly, honestly believing McKee can coach, and coach well, at that. And, suddenly, Briere has a job opening that makes a lot more sense than a leap from the OHL to the NHL. McKee, 47, has been an OHL head coach since the 2016-17 season, sitting out the 2020-21 season after getting fired by the Kitchener Rangers the year prior. Since then, McKee has spent the last four years in charge of the Hamilton (now Brantford) Bulldogs, coaching talents like Mason McTavish, Arber Xhekaj, Jorian Donovan, Jan Mysak, Artem Grushnikov, Ryan Winterton, Marek Vanacker, Florian Xhekaj, Nick Lardis, Adam Jiricek, and potential Flyers 2025 first-round pick Jake O'Brien. Flyers GM Teases Potential Top Pick Ahead of 2025 NHL Draft Philadelphia Flyers general manager Danny Briere is not ignoring the possibility of selecting Caleb Desnoyers sixth overall at the 2025 NHL Draft in June. In fact, he's embracing it. And for those who might not be aware, Lardis, a 19-year-old Chicago Blackhawks prospect, just exploded for 71 goals, 46 assists, and 117 points in 65 games this year. Lardis' 71 goals rank 11th all-time in single-season OHL history, trailing some guys named Eric Lindros, John Tavares, and Dino Ciccarelli. Ever heard of them? Oh, and a 19-year-old Doug Gilmour 'only' managed 70 goals in an OHL season at the peak of his powers. So, needless to say, McKee is a perfectly capable leader of men who can get the best out of his players. We don't need to go further down the list to prove that. I'd be stunned if McKee is not the clubhouse favorite to replace Laperriere. Taking the next step and joining Briere's Flyers with the Phantoms makes too much sense. Another name to watch, be it at the NHL level or the AHL level, is Cory Stillman. Most Flyers fans probably know Stillman as Jett Luchanko's head coach with the Guelph Storm this past season, but Stillman also has four years of experience as an NHL assistant coach, including as part of Tocchet's Arizona Coyotes staff in 2020-21. The 51-year-old has never coached at the AHL level before, but if Tocchet and/or the Flyers want continuity between the AHL and NHL systems and what is being asked of the young players, hiring Stillman could make perfect sense. This season, Stillman also served as the head coach of Canada's U-18s, which boasted star prospects like Keaton Verhoeff (2026), Brady Martin, Jack Nesbitt, Cole Reschny, Braeden Cootes, and Jack Ivankovic, among many others. If you've paid any attention to national draft coverage lately, you'll know that Martin has been mocked to the Flyers at No. 6 by Craig Button, and Button successfully mocked Luchanko, also coached by Stillman, to the Flyers (with their top draft pick) last year. Those connections, especially with important draft picks, matter. So, while McKee may appear to be the leader for now, watch out for Stillman. The Flyers love their connections, and McKee is not the only one who has them.
Time of India
26-05-2025
- Sport
- Time of India
Philadelphia Flyers coaching search begins after Ian Laperriere's exit: Who takes over next?
Flyers focused on finding Ian Laperriere's replacement (Image via: Getty Images) Ian Laperriere's exit from the Lehigh Valley Phantoms has opened the door to one of the Flyers' most pivotal offseason decisions—who takes over as head coach of their AHL affiliate? With the organization doubling down on player development and system alignment, the choice of replacement could shape the Flyers' future. But early frontrunners suggest this might be less about fresh ideas and more about familiar faces. What's really behind the Flyers' decision to replace Ian Laperriere? Philadelphia Flyers Assistant Coach Rumors: Who's most likely to join Rick Tocchet's Staff? Laperriere may not have delivered a Calder Cup, but three straight playoff appearances with a revolving door of prospects is hardly a failure. Still, a playoff collapse against Hershey and the baffling decision to ride the aging Cal Petersen over top prospect Carson Bjarnason has become the talking point that defined his exit. Add in the benching of promising forwards like Massimo Rizzo and Alex Ciernik, and suddenly Laperriere's 'development-first' narrative crumbled at the worst possible time. But here's where it gets murky. Flyers GM Danny Brière seems to be pushing for a fresh start, but some of the rumored replacements raise more eyebrows than expectations. Top of the list is John Snowden—Laperriere's assistant—whose coaching resume spans from the ECHL to the AHL with modest success. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 12000W лазерен заваръчен апарат (4 в 1) – революция в заваряването! Undo He's a Brière-era peer from their ECHL days, which fuels speculation that this could be less about merit and more about mutual history. Then there's Jay McKee, a name with stronger coaching credentials and a deeper bond with Brière dating back to their NHL playing days. McKee's work with OHL talent like 71-goal scorer Nick Lardis, proves he knows how to maximize young stars. But hiring a buddy from junior hockey might signal the Flyers are prioritizing familiarity over fresh innovation. Even Cory Stillman enters the mix, boasting NHL assistant experience and recent ties to Canada's U-18 program. Conveniently, Stillman coached Flyers prospect Jett Luchanko and potential 2025 draft target Brady Martin. The Flyers claim to be entering a new era of prospect development and accountability. But if they're simply handing the Phantoms' reins to someone from the old boys' club, this shake-up won't signal progress, it'll confirm the same closed-door habits that have plagued the organization for years. Also Read: Los Angeles Kings target Mitch Marner amid 2025 NHL trade rumors and Maple Leafs contract uncertainty One coach is out. A few names are circling. But until the Flyers prove they're hiring based on vision and not connections, fans have every right to question what's really going on behind the bench. Get IPL 2025 match schedules , squads , points table , and live scores for CSK , MI , RCB , KKR , SRH , LSG , DC , GT , PBKS , and RR . Check the latest IPL Orange Cap and Purple Cap standings.
