Latest news with #LauraUllrich
CNBC
05-08-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Official jobs numbers show it's a bad time to be looking for work—unless you're in this field
Official economic data is finally catching up to the fact that Americans have been feeling lousy about the job market for months. The U.S. economy added just 73,000 nonfarm jobs in July, according to the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's below market expectations and the roughly 80,000 benchmark for a healthy economy to support the growing population, says Laura Ullrich, Indeed's director of economic research for North America. A lot of economists are also paying attention to the latest report, which helps show a monthly picture of where jobs are growing and shrinking, because it downwardly revised its May and June numbers to show the economy added just 33,000 jobs over the two-month period, compared to earlier estimates of 291,000 jobs. Following the release of Friday's jobs report, President Donald Trump fired BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer, suggesting without evidence that the weaker-than-expected report had been "rigged" by federal workers bent on sabotaging the president. Revisions are a normal part of the data collection process, and estimates move up or down to become more precise with additional payroll data up to several months after a report releases, Ullrich tells CNBC Make It. But "these revisions took the prior two jobs report [in May and June] from a range where they looked like pretty healthy job reports to where they looked quite weak," Ullrich says. The latest numbers confirm the U.S. economy is slowing sharply, experts say. Here's what else job seekers should know about the state of the labor market: At the beginning of the year, the labor market was primarily held up by jobs across three sectors: health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, and government hiring. Leisure and hospitality job creation is down, driven in part by business pullback amid economic uncertainty, while government hiring is down following the Trump administration's work to slash the size of the federal government. Meanwhile, health care and social assistance have accounted for 48.8% of total employment growth over the last year, despite making up just 14.6% of the economy, Ullrich says. New jobs span nurses, nurses assistants, patient care techs, home health aides and other roles. "Hospitals employ just about everybody," Ullrich says. Hospitals added 196,000 jobs over the last year, which is 3.5% growth and "pretty strong," Ullrich says. Home health care services grew by 56,900 jobs, or 3.2%, over the last year. A majority, 78.6%, of employees in this subsector are women, meaning 35% of all employment growth in the U.S. over the past year has been among women in health care and social assistance, Ullrich says. Experts have long predicted the strength around health-care jobs to take care of an aging Baby Boomer population. "Growth in that sector has remained robust," Ullrich says. Other typically high-growth and high-paying sectors are shedding jobs, including professional and business services, manufacturing and government, which all lost more than 10,000 jobs each over the last month. Some experts have dubbed the current environment a "white collar recession" among office workers. "Business and professional services added a ton of jobs in the post-pandemic period, but over the past year or so, it's been relatively soft," Ullrich says. As for manufacturing, it's hard to say what combination of factors is keeping jobs down, whether it's new global tariffs, changing consumer habits, or overall economic uncertainty, among other things, Ullrich says. Ullrich says the latest jobs numbers are just one more data point that add to a broader challenging economic picture, which could impact business plans and consumer spending. "It's been clear through multiple sources of data, including this jobs report, that the economy is slowing down a bit, and so that can certainly impact sentiment," she says. Another troubling sign: The number of people who've been unemployed for 27-plus weeks increased by 179,000 people to 1.8 million in July, according to BLS data. Long-term unemployed people make up roughly 1 in 4 people looking for a job right now. Job postings are down on Indeed, Ullrich says, and economists have seen a disequilibrium in terms of what skills people have and what sectors are hiring. Currently, "if you are somebody that's trying to find a job in manufacturing or business and professional services, it's likely a pretty tough job market right now," Ullrich says. "If you're graduating with a nursing degree, I feel pretty confident that there's someone out there looking to hire you."
Yahoo
04-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The labor market just hit a wall. Here's what it means for the economy.
Friday's disappointing July employment report delivered a reality check on the U.S. economy, with the data suggesting the job market is wobbling from the uncertainty of on-again, off-again tariffs. What was surprising about the Friday report was that employers not only hired fewer people than expected last month, but the government revised its jobs data sharply downward for the prior two months. With the revisions, the U.S. added 19,000 jobs in May and 14,000 in June, reflecting "paltry" employment growth during those months, according to a research note from EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco. The latest jobs data is shedding new light on the U.S. economy as businesses absorb a multitude of changes — from President Trump's trade deals and fresh tariffs to the new GOP tax law, which provides tax breaks to many Americans but also cuts spending on health care and social programs like food stamps. The jobs data backs up anecdotal evidence from the Federal Reserve's most recent "beige book" — a report that compiles comments from local businesses — that many companies are delaying hiring "until uncertainty diminished." "Based on what I was hearing from a lot of employers, I kept expecting to see a stagnant jobs report at some point, that's what we got today," Laura Ullrich, Indeed's director of economic research for North America and a former official at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, told CBS MoneyWatch. She added, "We know the economy has ups and downs, and we're in a pretty stagnant place right now." In other words, while the labor market isn't seeing massive layoffs, companies also aren't expanding their hiring plans. That can make it difficult for unemployed workers to find new jobs, with the number of people searching for work for more than 27 weeks jumping 11% to 1.8 million last month compared with a year earlier, government data shows. Pockets of strength To be sure, there were pockets of strength in the jobs report, with health care and social assistance adding a combined 73,300 jobs last month, the BLS reported. But many major U.S. employment sectors saw little or no hiring, including leisure and hospitality, transportation and construction, while others — including manufacturing — saw job losses last month, the July data shows. President Trump on Friday claimed without evidence that the jobs report was manipulated for "political purposes," and fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. He also asserted that the downward revisions were "a major mistake," although the BLS revises its data each month to reflect new information, and the numbers frequently move both up and down. "The president's belief that the BLS commissioner personally 'produced' the jobs numbers is preposterous and shows a complete misunderstanding of how government statistical agencies operate," noted Heidi Shierholz, the president of the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute and a former chief economist at the Department of Labor, in a post about McEntarfer's firing. She added, "These data are the product of careful work by hundreds of expert economists, statisticians and civil servants following transparent, well-established methodologies." Tariff uncertainty Businesses have been expressing hesitation given the uncertain impact of the Trump's tariffs, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Beth Hammack told CBS News' Kelly O'Grady. "I'm hearing that uncertainty has really been weighing on businesses," Hammack said of her discussions with business owners in her district, which spans Eastern Kentucky, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania and part of West Virginia. "They've been having a tough time to decide when to invest, how much to invest. Many of them have scaled back plans for investment." For instance, one franchise owner said that they planned to refurbish their existing locations, rather than open new locations, she added. Mr. Trump has said tariffs would revive U.S. manufacturing because companies will reshore or open new factories domestically, rather than pay the import duties. Some Trump officials portrayed the jobs report as a temporary setback as the administration seeks to revive American jobs through its trade policies. "Obviously there were elements of [the jobs report] that we didn't love, but the trade deals are now in place that cover — including the U.S. — almost 60% of the global economy," Stephen Miran, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, told reporters Friday. With the setting of new tariff rates on Thursday for dozens of nations, uncertainty has also been resolved, he added. "There probably were a lot of firms that, you know, sort of sitting there in May and June saying, 'Hey, you know, this tariff stuff's about to be resolved, this bill you know hopefully becomes law within a month or two — maybe I'm just going to hold off on this investment program.'" Also on Friday, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt issued a statement describing a flourishing economy under President Trump. "Inflation has cooled, wages have increased, unemployment is stable, and the private sector is growing. President Trump's America First agenda has ensured new jobs go to American citizens, instead of illegals or foreign-born workers. The tariffs are raking in billions of dollars to make our country wealthy again," the statement read in part. A decline in manufacturing jobs The U.S. lost 11,000 manufacturing jobs in July, and the revisions for May and June also show that the sector shed workers during those months. That's notable given Mr. Trump's promise to revive manufacturing jobs, which has led to new agreements from the likes of Johnson & Johnson and Apple to build new plants in the U.S. But the Trump administration's tariffs have added to the challenges facing the manufacturing sector, especially those producing durable goods such as appliances and automobiles, noted Indeed's Ullrich. For instance, tariffs on imported metals such as steel and aluminum are making it pricier for many manufacturers to create their products, putting pressure on their margins and profits. The downturn in manufacturing jobs "is hardly surprising," said Scott Paul, president of the trade group the Alliance for American Manufacturing, in an email. "It's another 'treading water' number, which has been the case more often than not for the past few years. But it is concerning that we're now 173,000 jobs below the most recent peak in February 2023," when total nonfarm payroll employment rose to 155.4 million. It's possible that manufacturing jobs could reverse the trend now that the Trump administration's tariffs and tax policies are settled, Paul added. Progress on the Trump administration's goal of reshoring American manufacturing jobs may take years, given the cost and time required to build new factories, Ullrich noted. "There are certain products that, even with the tariffs, are still cheaper to make overseas," she added. "This is not a healthy job market," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in an email. "The economy needs certainty soon on tariffs. The longer this tariff whiplash lasts, the more likely this weak hiring environment turns into layoffs." How safe is our Social Security safety net? Texas House votes to arrest lawmakers who fled state to stop redistricting vote What is "most-favored nation" drug pricing and how does it work? 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CBS News
04-08-2025
- Business
- CBS News
The labor market just hit a wall. Here's what experts say it means for the economy and your job.
Friday's disappointing July employment report delivered a reality check on the U.S. economy, with the data suggesting the job market is wobbling from the uncertainty of on-again, off-again tariffs. What was surprising about the Friday report was that employers not only hired fewer people than expected last month, but the government revised its jobs data sharply downward for the prior two months. With the revisions, the U.S. added 19,000 jobs in May and 14,000 in June, reflecting "paltry" employment growth during those months, according to a research note from EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco. The latest jobs data is shedding new light on the U.S. economy as businesses absorb a multitude of changes — from President Trump's trade deals and fresh tariffs to the new GOP tax law, which provides tax breaks to many Americans but also cuts spending on health care and social programs like food stamps. The jobs data backs up anecdotal evidence from the Federal Reserve's most recent "beige book" — a report that compiles comments from local businesses — that many companies are delaying hiring "until uncertainty diminished." "Based on what I was hearing from a lot of employers, I kept expecting to see a stagnant jobs report at some point, that's what we got today," Laura Ullrich, Indeed's director of economic research for North America and a former official at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, told CBS MoneyWatch. She added, "We know the economy has ups and downs, and we're in a pretty stagnant place right now." In other words, while the labor market isn't seeing massive layoffs, companies also aren't expanding their hiring plans. That can make it difficult for unemployed workers to find new jobs, with the number of people searching for work for more than 27 weeks jumping 11% to 1.8 million last month compared with a year earlier, government data shows. To be sure, there were pockets of strength in the jobs report, with health care and social assistance adding a combined 73,300 jobs last month, the BLS reported. But many major U.S. employment sectors saw little or no hiring, including leisure and hospitality, transportation and construction, while others — including manufacturing — saw job losses last month, the July data shows. President Trump on Friday claimed without evidence that the jobs report was manipulated for "political purposes," and fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. He also asserted that the downward revisions were "a major mistake," although the BLS revises its data each month to reflect new information, and the numbers frequently move both up and down. "The president's belief that the BLS commissioner personally 'produced' the jobs numbers is preposterous and shows a complete misunderstanding of how government statistical agencies operate," noted Heidi Shierholz, the president of the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute and a former chief economist at the Department of Labor, in a post about McEntarfer's firing. She added, "These data are the product of careful work by hundreds of expert economists, statisticians and civil servants following transparent, well-established methodologies." Businesses have been expressing hesitation given the uncertain impact of the Trump's tariffs, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Beth Hammack told CBS News' Kelly O'Grady. "I'm hearing that uncertainty has really been weighing on businesses," Hammack said of her discussions with business owners in her district, which spans Eastern Kentucky, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania and part of West Virginia. "They've been having a tough time to decide when to invest, how much to invest. Many of them have scaled back plans for investment." For instance, one franchise owner said that they planned to refurbish their existing locations, rather than open new locations, she added. Mr. Trump has said tariffs would revive U.S. manufacturing because companies will reshore or open new factories domestically, rather than pay the import duties. Some Trump officials portrayed the jobs report as a temporary setback as the administration seeks to revive American jobs through its trade policies. "Obviously there were elements of [the jobs report] that we didn't love, but the trade deals are now in place that cover — including the U.S. — almost 60% of the global economy," Stephen Miran, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, told reporters Friday. With the setting of new tariff rates on Thursday for dozens of nations, uncertainty has also been resolved, he added. "There probably were a lot of firms that, you know, sort of sitting there in May and June saying, 'Hey, you know, this tariff stuff's about to be resolved, this bill you know hopefully becomes law within a month or two — maybe I'm just going to hold off on this investment program.'" Also on Friday, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt issued a statement describing a flourishing economy under President Trump. "Inflation has cooled, wages have increased, unemployment is stable, and the private sector is growing. President Trump's America First agenda has ensured new jobs go to American citizens, instead of illegals or foreign-born workers. The tariffs are raking in billions of dollars to make our country wealthy again," the statement read in part. The U.S. lost 11,000 manufacturing jobs in July, and the revisions for May and June also show that the sector shed workers during those months. That's notable given Mr. Trump's promise to revive manufacturing jobs, which has led to new agreements from the likes of Johnson & Johnson and Apple to build new plants in the U.S. But the Trump administration's tariffs have added to the challenges facing the manufacturing sector, especially those producing durable goods such as appliances and automobiles, noted Indeed's Ullrich. For instance, tariffs on imported metals such as steel and aluminum are making it pricier for many manufacturers to create their products, putting pressure on their margins and profits. The downturn in manufacturing jobs "is hardly surprising," said Scott Paul, president of the trade group the Alliance for American Manufacturing, in an email. "It's another 'treading water' number, which has been the case more often than not for the past few years. But it is concerning that we're now 173,000 jobs below the most recent peak in February 2023," when total nonfarm payroll employment rose to 155.4 million. It's possible that manufacturing jobs could reverse the trend now that the Trump administration's tariffs and tax policies are settled, Paul added. Progress on the Trump administration's goal of reshoring American manufacturing jobs may take years, given the cost and time required to build new factories, Ullrich noted. "There are certain products that, even with the tariffs, are still cheaper to make overseas," she added. "This is not a healthy job market," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in an email. "The economy needs certainty soon on tariffs. The longer this tariff whiplash lasts, the more likely this weak hiring environment turns into layoffs."
Yahoo
01-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Jobs report ‘officially ripped the mask off the market'
This story was originally published on HR Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily HR Dive newsletter. The job market is weaker than previously thought, Friday numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed. Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July, the agency said, with employers adding just 73,000 jobs. The unemployment rate increased slightly, from 4.1% to 4.2%. Those numbers were accompanied by downward revisions for previous months that BLS characterized as 'larger than normal.' Employers were initially believed to have added 144,000 jobs in May, but that number is actually 19,000, the agency said. June's number was similarly moved from 147,000 to 14,000. 'Today's jobs report officially ripped the mask off the market,' Laura Ullrich, Indeed's director of economic research for North America, said in a statement. 'The underlying weakness that had been apparent just under the surface came into full view after major downward revisions showed the past few months of seemingly steady jobs growth to be basically nonexistent.' The data varied by industry, however. Employment continued to trend up in healthcare and social assistance, BLS noted, while the federal government continued to shed jobs. 'The increasing concentration of jobs in certain sectors and an outright contraction of jobs in many others does not bode well for the market going forward,' Ullrich said. 'Unemployment remains low, and layoff activity is still muted, but it's less clear than ever how much longer those saving graces can last.'
Yahoo
01-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
IT positions rise again despite tepid job market growth
This story was originally published on CIO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CIO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: Technology jobs across the economy rose by 54,000 in July, marking the second consecutive month of growth, according to a CompTIA analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data published Friday. Unemployment increased slightly last month to 2.9%, up from 2.8% during the prior month. The increase tracked the national unemployment trend, which grew to 4.2% from 4.1% in June. As tech hires increased across the economy, employer postings for tech positions contracted slightly last month, according to the IT trade group. More than 40% of active postings were added last month. Dive Insight: July's net increase in technology roles contrasts with flagging indicators in the broader U.S. employment market, as employers contend with economic uncertainty and a fluid global trade scenario. National unemployment rates compared to those in IT occupations The BLS data published Friday 'officially ripped the mask off the market,' said Laura Ullrich, Indeed's director of economic research for North America, in an email. 'The underlying weakness that had been apparent just under the surface came into full view after major downward revisions showed the past few months of seemingly steady jobs growth to be basically nonexistent.' Tech sector employment also contracted last month by more than 10,000 positions. Several technology providers have trimmed headcount in recent months, though these shifts are unlikely to be reflected in the most recent report, since data reporting on unemployment lags. Microsoft trimmed around 15,000 positions in two layoffs rounds in May and July. Intel's layoffs surpassed 5,000 last month, with plans to cut nearly 25,000 positions by the end of the year. AWS also cut hundreds of positions, Reuters reported in July. 'Today's report shows we're a long way from the job-switcher's paradise enjoyed in the post-pandemic surge,' Mischa Fisher, head of product analytics and economist at Udemy, said in an email. 'This is not a labor market where one can afford a career misstep.' Sign in to access your portfolio
