Official jobs numbers show it's a bad time to be looking for work—unless you're in this field
The U.S. economy added just 73,000 nonfarm jobs in July, according to the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's below market expectations and the roughly 80,000 benchmark for a healthy economy to support the growing population, says Laura Ullrich, Indeed's director of economic research for North America.
A lot of economists are also paying attention to the latest report, which helps show a monthly picture of where jobs are growing and shrinking, because it downwardly revised its May and June numbers to show the economy added just 33,000 jobs over the two-month period, compared to earlier estimates of 291,000 jobs.
Following the release of Friday's jobs report, President Donald Trump fired BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer, suggesting without evidence that the weaker-than-expected report had been "rigged" by federal workers bent on sabotaging the president.
Revisions are a normal part of the data collection process, and estimates move up or down to become more precise with additional payroll data up to several months after a report releases, Ullrich tells CNBC Make It.
But "these revisions took the prior two jobs report [in May and June] from a range where they looked like pretty healthy job reports to where they looked quite weak," Ullrich says.
The latest numbers confirm the U.S. economy is slowing sharply, experts say. Here's what else job seekers should know about the state of the labor market:
At the beginning of the year, the labor market was primarily held up by jobs across three sectors: health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, and government hiring.
Leisure and hospitality job creation is down, driven in part by business pullback amid economic uncertainty, while government hiring is down following the Trump administration's work to slash the size of the federal government.
Meanwhile, health care and social assistance have accounted for 48.8% of total employment growth over the last year, despite making up just 14.6% of the economy, Ullrich says.
New jobs span nurses, nurses assistants, patient care techs, home health aides and other roles. "Hospitals employ just about everybody," Ullrich says.
Hospitals added 196,000 jobs over the last year, which is 3.5% growth and "pretty strong," Ullrich says. Home health care services grew by 56,900 jobs, or 3.2%, over the last year.
A majority, 78.6%, of employees in this subsector are women, meaning 35% of all employment growth in the U.S. over the past year has been among women in health care and social assistance, Ullrich says.
Experts have long predicted the strength around health-care jobs to take care of an aging Baby Boomer population.
"Growth in that sector has remained robust," Ullrich says.
Other typically high-growth and high-paying sectors are shedding jobs, including professional and business services, manufacturing and government, which all lost more than 10,000 jobs each over the last month.
Some experts have dubbed the current environment a "white collar recession" among office workers. "Business and professional services added a ton of jobs in the post-pandemic period, but over the past year or so, it's been relatively soft," Ullrich says.
As for manufacturing, it's hard to say what combination of factors is keeping jobs down, whether it's new global tariffs, changing consumer habits, or overall economic uncertainty, among other things, Ullrich says.
Ullrich says the latest jobs numbers are just one more data point that add to a broader challenging economic picture, which could impact business plans and consumer spending.
"It's been clear through multiple sources of data, including this jobs report, that the economy is slowing down a bit, and so that can certainly impact sentiment," she says.
Another troubling sign: The number of people who've been unemployed for 27-plus weeks increased by 179,000 people to 1.8 million in July, according to BLS data. Long-term unemployed people make up roughly 1 in 4 people looking for a job right now.
Job postings are down on Indeed, Ullrich says, and economists have seen a disequilibrium in terms of what skills people have and what sectors are hiring.
Currently, "if you are somebody that's trying to find a job in manufacturing or business and professional services, it's likely a pretty tough job market right now," Ullrich says. "If you're graduating with a nursing degree, I feel pretty confident that there's someone out there looking to hire you."
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Business Insider
27 minutes ago
- Business Insider
They're in their 80s, still working, and living paycheck to paycheck
After a tedious week of squinting at spreadsheets, Sandy McConnell, 80, makes her way to a restaurant in Nevada for a monthly lunch with former colleagues. "Life is too freaking short," McConnell recalled texting the group chat years ago to kick off the tradition of talking life, family, and the news over a meal. "I'd like to start having lunches." When she returns home, she checks her bank account: it's down to $37. She expects she won't eat at a restaurant again until next month's reunion. McConnell works full-time as a remote accounts receivable specialist, earning about $50,000 annually to supplement $1,784 in monthly Social Security. Between her debt, mortgage, and car insurance payments, her expenses total over $3,000 monthly. She's $70,000 in debt, not including her house, some of which she accrued by helping her oldest son recover from a stroke in 2023. She's found that retirement is not possible. Throughout her career, McConnell, a mother of five, rarely had moments of stability. After a series of divorces, she was financially strapped. She held jobs as a grocery cashier, a nurse's aide, and a credit and collections manager. At one point in the early 2000s, McConnell had 13 family members living with her. She had her own room; her children lived in other bedrooms and in the living room with her grandchildren. It drained her wallet, and she filed for bankruptcy. After years of working and saving what she could, she became a homeowner a decade ago; she estimates her house is worth about $400,000. "I find myself at 80 still needing to work. Part of that is financial, and part of it is because I would be bored," McConnell said. "If you don't have any money to do anything with, what are you going to do? Your house can only get so clean." McConnell is one of nearly 550,000 Americans working past 80 in industries like education, construction, and religious services, a Business Insider analysis of Census Bureau data found. This cohort is one of the fastest-growing demographics in the workforce, and the percentage of people working into their 80s and 90s is expected to grow over the next decade. More than 100 workers in this age demographic have spoken to Business Insider in recent months. Some planned carefully for retirement, before a medical or financial catastrophe tanked their wealth. For others, poor financial choices or low incomes meant they never had much saved. Business Insider's '80 over 80' series draws on interviews with the growing group of Americans working past their 80th birthdays. They discussed their careers, retirement planning, living expenses, healthcare, and life lessons. If you are 80 and older and still work, fill out this form to contribute to the series and read more here: For these older workers, every paycheck counts, and many have limited job prospects. Tracey Gendron, chair of the Virginia Commonwealth University Department of Gerontology, said economic shifts over the last few decades mean savings don't go as far as they once did. "This idea of turning 65 and no longer working is somewhat outdated because people get to 65 and realize they have more that they want to do, but may not have the savings that they thought to live another 30 years," Gendron said. 'I know I can survive' Most older workers with limited savings who spoke to Business Insider said they could manage daily expenses with their savings and earnings. They've developed budgeting strategies and calendars to track their finances. A handful said they've considered selling their homes. Two said they're on the verge of homelessness. Though many have equity in their homes, they tend to view that cash source as a last resort. According to data from Fannie Mae, just 15% of older homeowners said they would consider funding their retirement in part through their home's equity. Connie Martin, 81, owns her house with about $60,000 in equity and a few thousand dollars in her bank account. She keeps her discretionary costs low and sticks to a meticulous budget. Martin said she's always found work, though her income has been sporadic. She's worked at banks, distribution centers, and commercial printers. When she was a single mother, she occasionally lived paycheck to paycheck. "I've been on my own since I was 15, so I've learned how to be a survivor," Martin said. "Even though I don't have a whole lot of money per se, I know how to manage it." Among those 75 and older, the median income in 2022 was around $49,100, down 2% from 2019, according to the most recent Survey of Consumer Finances. Median net worth among people 75 and older was $335,600 in 2022. An AARP survey found that one in five Americans 50 and older has no retirement savings. A large subset of people working into their 80s say they are financially stable and work just a few hours a week for supplemental income or a sense of purpose. Still, many want to earn more but can't find anything beyond a lower-paying retail or nonprofit position. "Savings can quickly be eaten up within a few years, especially if you have a health emergency," said Robert Espinoza, a distinguished fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance. "Working without the money to survive is going to become more and more common as both the size of the older worker population grows in the years to come and as poverty and economic instability become a reality for many people." During the Great Recession, Martin lost her job and applied for Social Security at 62, which lowered her allocation. When she later landed a job, she temporarily paid a penalty for exceeding the earnings limit for early Social Security payments. She used her 401(k) to pay for her health insurance. After experiencing unemployment 16 years ago, she worked part-time as a phone service representative for a credit union, and recently shifted to full-time to cover a colleague's shift. She earns $17.47 an hour, which helps supplement her $1,186 monthly Social Security. She focuses on the silver linings. She's alert, has good hearing and eyesight, and wakes up each morning feeling empowered to better people's lives through her work. "I don't worry about the future. I know that sounds crazy, but things always seem to fall into place," Martin said. "I can always sell my house and get the equity out of it. I know I can survive." Entrepreneurship out of necessity Many older workers opt to work for themselves. A Business Insider analysis found that among workers 80 and older, 27% are self-employed. Americans 65 and older make up about 10.6% of all self-employed workers. "People are working not only because they have to but because they want to, because it brings them purpose and meaning," said Gendron. "People need to hear the message that elderhood doesn't mean any one thing, but it certainly doesn't mean that you have to stop contributing." Some older workers said they chose entrepreneurship out of necessity rather than choice, however. Nearly a dozen self-employed workers in their 80s and 90s told BI that they started their businesses in part for financial reasons. Some couldn't find a well-paying job that fit their medical needs, while others hoped they would earn more managing their own businesses. A decade ago, Bruce Rubin, 81, had the idea to start a company selling solar-powered refrigeration facilities to reduce food waste. He filed for a patent and has worked with engineers on refining the model. However, he's struggled to secure enough funding to put the model on the market. Rubin said he only has enough saved for a few more months at his residential development. He's considered living with his son to save money. He's also battling cancer for a third time, facing higher medical bills and fatigue. Despite a well-paying career in sourcing and product development, he's made some financial mistakes. A few years ago, he said he got scammed out of $280,000, which he couldn't recover. He also wishes he had more financial backing when starting his business. Rubin lives in a 55+ community and takes advantage of social and networking opportunities. He goes to a tavern each Friday and tries to have plans lined up each week. He often plays basketball and trains for the National Senior Games. "I'm not sure what relaxing means," Rubin said. "What keeps me going is keeping active and busy, and not worrying about the cancer. I tell myself it'll get handled and I'll find the right resources." 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She also worked for the affirmative action office in Toledo, Ohio, and sold real estate. "I never had any thought about stopping or retiring when I couldn't afford to do so," Boyd said. "When we get the utility bills, auto insurance, and mortgage, you don't get a discount because you're a senior." She hasn't earned a full public employee's pension because she was three years short of accumulating 30 years of government work. Whenever she had savings that didn't go to a car or her children's tuition, she "blew it" on an unexpected expense, though she had no regrets about her spending, she said. She helps her family during tight periods, including a daughter battling bone cancer, and gives gifts to her 14 great-grandchildren. If she ever needs extra money, she can rely on her family. She lives in a multigenerational household. "I have no doubts about my future, but if I'm unable to work, I know my children will look out for me," Boyd said. 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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Trump says US jobs report was 'rigged' — here's how it actually works
Recent data on the health of the nation's job market cost Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, her own employment after President Trump lashed out when revisions to earlier months' numbers suggested the economy could be in worse shape than previously thought. 'Last weeks Job's Report was RIGGED,' Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday. The July employment numbers, released last week, showed the US added 258,000 fewer jobs in May and June than what was reported previously. Economists were quick to note the changes, while larger than normal, are routine, factoring in survey data from employers that's slower to arrive, while Trump's actions risk politicizing a crucial economic indicator. Here's how the jobs report is pieced together and why data within it is regularly updated. How 'jobs data' works Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes an 'employment situation' report that includes employment, hours, and wage data for workers on nonfarm payrolls from an 'establishment survey' of businesses representing varied sectors of the economy. The report also includes data from a separate 'household survey' on the labor force, employment, and unemployment. The report is closely watched by economists, traders, and businesspeople because it can move markets, influence monetary policy, and reflect the overall health of the economy. The revisions that upset Trump were from the establishment survey, which relies on a survey of about 121,000 businesses and government agencies across the week or pay period that includes the 12th of the month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Estimated data from this survey is always revised twice in the succeeding two months after it's initially published 'to incorporate additional sample receipts from respondents in the survey and recalculated seasonal adjustment factors,' the BLS says in a 'frequently asked questions' page. Put simply, some businesses are slow to respond, so their survey answers are added as they're received, leading to revisions — up or down — in the estimates of new jobs. Importantly, the most recent revisions were within the BLS's confidence interval — the measure of uncertainty in its own estimates — of 'plus or minus 136,000' for the monthly change in total nonfarm employment, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. May payroll data was revised down by 125,000 jobs to 19,000 jobs gained, while June was revised down by 133,000 to 14,000 jobs gained. Sweet noted that 'if you look at the size of the revisions relative to total employment, they're not significantly larger than what we've seen historically.' In a blog post earlier this year, Michael Madowitz, principal economist for the Roosevelt Institute, wrote that while revisions can lead to some confusion, it's worth reflecting on 'why incurring some temporary confusion, in this case, contributes to the universally respected economic statistics that are central to the long-term stability of the US financial system.' The BLS is showing its work, he noted, which is a good thing. The payroll estimates from establishment surveys are also revised annually to account for wage and employment data from state unemployment insurance tax records. One of these revisions made waves last August when the BLS announced the economy had 818,000 fewer positions in the 12 months ending in March 2024 than initially reported, though that revision itself was also revised earlier this year to 598,000 fewer jobs. Trump has referenced the 818,000 data point as another example of what he perceives as data manipulation to favor Democrats, though it wasn't exactly great news for the Biden administration. 'We were pretty devastated that in August of 2024 in an election year — right kind of in the home stretch there when people were starting to pay attention — BLS did its annual benchmark revision and found that we had added 800,000 fewer jobs than we had thought at that point,' said Alex Jacquez, a former Biden official and the chief of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive group. Why are the revisions happening? A bigger likely problem than data manipulation is fewer businesses answering the survey. Response rates for the establishment survey have declined sharply in recent years, leading to some worries that the data is becoming more vulnerable to errors. Still, researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco wrote in March of the monthly employment gains through 2024 that 'despite the substantial decline in response rates, the incoming data are reassuringly not subject to greater noise, and thus greater uncertainty, than in the past.' But 'it's becoming less of a clear picture of how the labor market is doing in the first estimate' due to the lower survey responses, Sweet said. That's not a knock on the BLS, he added. 'These revisions are normal,' Sweet said. 'It's the nature of the beast of trying to measure a $30 trillion economy.' Additionally, big revisions have occurred in other times of economic weirdness, including the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. 'This is why we had massive upwards revisions in the early months of the Biden administration, when a ton of people were coming back into the labor force after COVID lockdowns,' Jacquez said. The US indeed has some weirdness right now, including tariffs, business uncertainty, and immigrant workers leaving the labor force. '(Major revisions) tend to coincide with idiosyncratic times in the labor market, which would make sense. If there's a big recession, there's a bunch of churn and a bunch of things happening in the labor market that wouldn't normally be captured by the standard analysis and regressions that you pull out of the data,' he added. Sign up for the Mind Your Money weekly newsletter By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy Keep watch That's not to say the revisions aren't worth examining, though: the two-month revision was the biggest since 1968 when excluding recessions, economists at Goldman Sachs have said, and could point to some strain in the economy. Even before the most recent jobs report, economists had been watching for recession risks and a slowing job market, making reliable data all the more crucial. In a video appearance on Yahoo Finance, William Beach, McEntarfer's predecessor, said the BLS commissioner has nothing to do with the estimation or preparation of the jobs data, but 'the damage is done' — people who don't follow the BLS that closely may struggle to trust the numbers. 'We're going to take a long time to recover from this,' Beach said. Emma Ockerman is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. 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San Francisco Chronicle
4 hours ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
UCSF doctor reinstated at FDA less than 2 weeks after resigning amid MAGA backlash
A divisive UCSF oncologist has reportedly been reinstated at the FDA less than two weeks after he resigned amid criticism from President Donald Trump's allies. Multiple media outlets on Saturday cited Health and Human Services Department officials confirming the reinstatement of Dr. Vinay Prasad, which was first reported by Endpoints News, a biotech-focused news organization. Spokespeople for HHS, which oversees the Food and Drug Administration, did not immediately respond to inquiries from the Chronicle about the news. Prasad resigned as the FDA's chief medical and scientific officer in late July after right-wing provocateur Laura Loomer and former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., accused him of being too liberal. He also drew backlash for criticizing the FDA's 2023 approval of a gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, a degenerative muscle disease that affects boys, who often do not survive past their 20s. In his role at the FDA overseeing vaccines, Prasad announced in May that the agency would limit updated COVID-19 vaccine access to seniors and people with certain people with certain medical conditions. Previously, the FDA had recommended annual COVID shots for all Americans over 6 months old. On social media, Loomer criticized Prasad's reinstatement, calling him a 'longtime progressive Marxist.' 'In the coming weeks, I will be ramping up my exposes (sic) of officials within HHS and FDA so the American people can see more of the pay for play rot themselves and how rabid Trump haters continue to be hired in the Trump administration,' she wrote. 'Should be a good time.'
