Latest news with #LipowOil
Business Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Oil jumps US$1 after further drone attacks on Iraq oil fields
[HOUSTON] Oil prices rose US$1 on Thursday (Jul 16) after drones struck Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields for a fourth day, pointing to continued risk in the volatile region. Brent crude futures settled at US$69.52 a barrel, up US$1.00, or 1.46 per cent. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at US$67.54 a barrel, up US$1.16, or 1.75 per cent. Officials pointed to Iran-backed militias as the likely source of attacks this week on the oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan, although no group has claimed responsibility. Oil output in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region has been slashed by between 140,000 and 150,000 barrels per day, two energy officials said, more than half the region's normal output of about 280,000 bpd. 'Some of the gains are reaction to drone attacks in Iraq,' said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. 'It shows how vulnerable oil supplies are to attacks using low technology.' Markets have also been jittery while waiting for the imposition of tariffs by US President Donald Trump, which could shift oil supplies from the United States to India and China, Lipow said. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Trump has said letters notifying smaller countries of their US tariff rates would go out soon, and has also alluded to prospects of a deal with Beijing on illicit drugs and a possible agreement with the European Union. 'Near-term prices (are) set to remain volatile due to the uncertainty over the final scale of US tariffs and the resultant impact on global growth,' said Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum. US crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, government data on Wednesday showed, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 552,000-barrel draw. Last week, the International Energy Agency said that oil output increases were not leading to higher inventories, which showed markets were thirsty for more oil. Markets were continuing to look for signals of tighter supply or higher demand, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group. Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico was not expected to develop into a named storm as it makes its way west before moving onshore in Louisiana later on Thursday. Rainfall totals in South-east Louisiana are forecast to be about four inches (10 cm), according to the US National Hurricane Center. REUTERS
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil falls, Trump says both sides violated Israel–Iran ceasefire
Oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) are falling as investors count out war in the Middle East despite uncertainty around the US-brokered Israel–Iran ceasefire. US President Trump told reporters that both sides have violated the agreement, saying he's "really unhappy" with Israel. Lipow Oil Associates president Andy Lipow joins Morning Brief with Brad Smith to discuss the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the impact on the oil market. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here.
The Hill
24-06-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Iran conflict poses minimal threat to US gas prices
Americans could see modest increases in the prices they pay at the pump in the wake of increasing conflict with Iran, analysts say. Andrew Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, told The Hill on Monday that any additional increases in gasoline prices will likely be just a few cents. 'I expect that gasoline prices are going to drift up about three to five cents a gallon over the next couple of weeks,' Lipow said. He added that after an initial 5 percent jump in the price of crude oil, 'the market has sold off since then and now has turned negative.' Oil prices fell on Monday, and U.S. benchmark WTI crude was down to about $69 per barrel on Monday afternoon — after jumping as high as $75 per barrel late last week in anticipation of U.S. strikes on Iran. The U.S. hit Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday night, bringing the country directly into Iran's conflict with Israel. Gasoline prices were higher on Monday, averaging $3.22 per gallon, up from $3.14 a week ago. Austin Lin, principal analyst for refining and oil products at Wood Mackenzie, told The Hill he believed that fuel prices were higher than they would otherwise be as a result of the conflict, but that he did not believe they would rise much further. 'There's a good argument that says Q3 versus everyone's expectations from a month ago is going to see higher pricing,' Lin said. 'I would temper that and say, I don't think there's probably a lot of uplift from where we currently are.' Vincent Piazza, senior energy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said he also 'wouldn't expect any drastic or dramatic change as we move into the summer months.' Piazza said there's 'no reason to panic right now,' noting that there's not currently any new obstructions to Middle Eastern oil and gas. 'The keys, what we want to think about is…is capacity being curtailed? Is the flow of molecules being curtailed? Globally, we're fairly well supplied at this point,' he said. The oil market is a global one, meaning that events around the world can impact what prices U.S. consumers pay at the pump. Iran itself is a significant producer of oil, though it cannot sell to the U.S. or many countries due to sanctions. It does still sell to China. While current conditions do not appear to be having a dramatic impact outside of an initial jump, that could change amid further retaliation, or if Iran decides to try to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's oil flows. 'The market thinks that China, who's already purchasing over 90 percent of Iranian oil exports, along with significant quantities of other Middle Eastern crude oil, is pressuring Iran to avoid shutting the Strait of Hormuz,' Lipow said. Lin said that he believes it's unlikely that Iran will close the strait because doing so would hurt its own economy. 'It would be political suicide, both with their neighbors and with their primary purchasers,' he said. 'The Iranian economy is largely popped up by oil exports,' he said. 'And if you take away China's supply of Middle Eastern oil, not just from Iran, they are pretty quickly going to stop being your friend when it comes to buying sanctioned oil.' The Trump administration, however, appears to be politically sensitive to gasoline prices, as President Trump campaigned specifically on bringing them down. Over the weekend, Secretary of State Marco Rubio encouraged China to tell Iran to keep the strait open. 'I would encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,' Rubio told Fox News. And on Monday, President Trump wrote on Truth Social ''EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN.' 'I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT!' he added.
Business Times
01-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Oil up 2% as Trump threatens new sanctions on Iran
[HOUSTON] Oil prices settled nearly 2 per cent higher on Thursday after US President Donald Trump threatened secondary sanctions on Iran after a fourth round of US-Iran talks was postponed. Brent crude futures settled at US$62.13 a barrel, up US$1.07, 1.8 per cent, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed US$1.03, or 1.8 per cent, higher at US$59.24 a barrel. Trump said all purchases of Iranian oil or petrochemical products must stop and any country or person buying any from the country would be immediately subject to secondary sanctions. His comments follow the postponement of talks. which had been due to take place in Rome on Saturday, over Iran's nuclear programme. A senior Iranian official told Reuters a new date will be set depending on the US approach. 'If the Trump administration is successful in enforcing secondary sanctions on the purchase of Iranian oil that could lead to a reduction in supply of about a million and a half, barrels per day,' said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. 'These low prices of oil are giving the Trump administration cover to more strictly enforce those sanctions, especially at a time that Opec+ is producing well over their quota and looking to increase production.' BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Several Opec+ members are set to suggest the group accelerates output hikes in June for a second consecutive month, three people familiar with Opec+ talks have said. Eight Opec+ countries will meet on May 5 to decide a June output plan. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is telling allies and industry experts that it is unwilling to prop up the oil market with supply cuts and can manage a prolonged period of low prices, sources told Reuters. On the demand side, however, the US economy contracted for the first time in three years in the first quarter, data showed on Wednesday, swamped by a flood of imports as businesses raced to avoid higher costs from tariffs and underscoring the disruptive impact of Trump's unpredictable trade policy. Trump's tariffs have made it probable the global economy will slip into recession this year, a Reuters poll suggested. REUTERS
Khaleej Times
05-02-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Gold soars amid trade war tensions; oil market remains stable
Gold continued its upward price momentum on Wednesday, posting a higher high for the fifth consecutive session. Commodity analysts and bullion traders attribute this relentless climb to escalating concerns over international trade dynamics, particularly spurred by President Donald Trump's recent tariff announcements. The market remains in strong bullish territory, but with prices pulling away from support at $2,790.17, traders should be mindful of a potential near-term correction. While gold's overall trend remains intact, the risk of a daily reversal is increasing as the rally extends, analysts said. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, emphasised gold's role as a hedge against geopolitical instability. "As international relations grow more chaotic, demand for gold rises, especially among central banks looking to mitigate exposure to U.S. policies," she stated. Analysts now speculate that gold could easily target the $3,000 mark if current trends continue. On Wednesday, the price of gold in the UAE was reported at Dh337.35 per gram, a slight increase from Dh335.89 the previous day. Looking ahead, analysts predict that $2,900 is the next immediate target for gold, with $3,000 becoming a likely point of discussion. Despite recent fluctuations, buyers remain firmly in control, and any significant pullback would need to drop below the $2,800 threshold. 'Taders should watch for potential reversals, especially if upcoming U.S. economic data suggests resilience in the labour market, which could strengthen the dollar and weigh on gold.' Barring any unexpected geopolitical events, gold could see a temporary pullback before resuming its broader uptrend. However, ongoing trade tensions and inflation fears continue to support gold's appeal as a hedge, keeping the metal well-positioned for future gains. In contrast, the oil and gas markets are expected to experience only limited short-term effects from President Trump's new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. The US administration announced on Saturday that tariffs would take effect on February 4, imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Goldman Sachs has maintained its oil price forecasts for this year and next, suggesting that stable oil supply will mitigate immediate impacts on global oil prices. However, the bank cautioned that US gasoline prices could see a short-term spike, particularly in the Midwest, where refineries heavily rely on Canadian crude oil. "Canadian oil producers are likely to bear most of the tariff burden, resulting in a $3 to $4 per barrel discount on Canadian crude," Goldman Sachs analysts noted. They also pointed out that U.S. consumers of refined products might face an additional $2 to $3 per barrel increase. Despite some initial upward movement in crude oil prices, concerns about the broader economic implications of a potential trade war loom large. Andy Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates, warned that retaliatory tariffs could lead to a global recession, causing oil prices to plummet in the medium term. As for the immediate outlook, U.S. crude oil prices recently dipped below $71 per barrel but have since recovered due to renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Analysts predict that crude prices will hover between $73 and $75 per barrel, with the $70 psychological support level becoming a focal point for traders. Looking ahead, CareEdge analysts expect Brent crude prices to average between $75 and $80 per barrel over the next six months, driven by increased U.S. crude production, stable OPEC output, and steady Russian supply. However, a global economic slowdown and a shift towards electric vehicles and alternative fuels could limit any significant increases in demand for crude oil.
