Iran conflict poses minimal threat to US gas prices

The Hill

24-06-2025

Americans could see modest increases in the prices they pay at the pump in the wake of increasing conflict with Iran, analysts say.
Andrew Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, told The Hill on Monday that any additional increases in gasoline prices will likely be just a few cents.
'I expect that gasoline prices are going to drift up about three to five cents a gallon over the next couple of weeks,' Lipow said.
He added that after an initial 5 percent jump in the price of crude oil, 'the market has sold off since then and now has turned negative.'
Oil prices fell on Monday, and U.S. benchmark WTI crude was down to about $69 per barrel on Monday afternoon — after jumping as high as $75 per barrel late last week in anticipation of U.S. strikes on Iran.
The U.S. hit Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday night, bringing the country directly into Iran's conflict with Israel.
Gasoline prices were higher on Monday, averaging $3.22 per gallon, up from $3.14 a week ago.
Austin Lin, principal analyst for refining and oil products at Wood Mackenzie, told The Hill he believed that fuel prices were higher than they would otherwise be as a result of the conflict, but that he did not believe they would rise much further.
'There's a good argument that says Q3 versus everyone's expectations from a month ago is going to see higher pricing,' Lin said. 'I would temper that and say, I don't think there's probably a lot of uplift from where we currently are.'
Vincent Piazza, senior energy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said he also 'wouldn't expect any drastic or dramatic change as we move into the summer months.'
Piazza said there's 'no reason to panic right now,' noting that there's not currently any new obstructions to Middle Eastern oil and gas.
'The keys, what we want to think about is…is capacity being curtailed? Is the flow of molecules being curtailed? Globally, we're fairly well supplied at this point,' he said.
The oil market is a global one, meaning that events around the world can impact what prices U.S. consumers pay at the pump.
Iran itself is a significant producer of oil, though it cannot sell to the U.S. or many countries due to sanctions. It does still sell to China.
While current conditions do not appear to be having a dramatic impact outside of an initial jump, that could change amid further retaliation, or if Iran decides to try to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's oil flows.
'The market thinks that China, who's already purchasing over 90 percent of Iranian oil exports, along with significant quantities of other Middle Eastern crude oil, is pressuring Iran to avoid shutting the Strait of Hormuz,' Lipow said.
Lin said that he believes it's unlikely that Iran will close the strait because doing so would hurt its own economy.
'It would be political suicide, both with their neighbors and with their primary purchasers,' he said.
'The Iranian economy is largely popped up by oil exports,' he said. 'And if you take away China's supply of Middle Eastern oil, not just from Iran, they are pretty quickly going to stop being your friend when it comes to buying sanctioned oil.'
The Trump administration, however, appears to be politically sensitive to gasoline prices, as President Trump campaigned specifically on bringing them down. Over the weekend, Secretary of State Marco Rubio encouraged China to tell Iran to keep the strait open.
'I would encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,' Rubio told Fox News.
And on Monday, President Trump wrote on Truth Social ''EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN.'
'I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT!' he added.