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New York Times
6 days ago
- Business
- New York Times
Law: Biggest risers and fallers from the newest MLB top-50 prospect ranking
As a companion piece to my re-ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minors — which was almost immediately undercut by the promotion of Jac Caglianone and demotion of Jordan Lawlar within days of the list going live — I've added some further notes below on six players whose outlooks have changed significantly based on the two months we've had so far, both in terms of scouts' notes and what we can see in the data. Lewis probably would have cracked the top 50 had he played more this year, but the Reds' second-round pick from 2024 didn't make his debut this year until May 12, and even now he has barely passed 50 professional plate appearances. They've been elite, though, as he was hitting .383/.444/.574 through Monday's games with only an 18.5 percent strikeout rate, and he's already hitting the ball extremely hard, with several batted balls over 110 mph. He's in the Arizona Complex League now, and that's unusual for teams to do with a high MLB Draft pick, but I'm hopeful other teams will see Lewis' success to date and consider holding some of their teenage prospects back a little to play in the complex rather than pushing them all to Low A. There's no downside to a month in the complex to tune up before facing the better competition of full-season ball. Either way, Lewis would be on a top-75 list right now, and I won't be the least bit surprised if he's in the top 30 next winter. .@BaseballAmerica Reds No. 9 prospect Tyson Lewis HR 434 feet114.8 mph exit velocity He is greeted by Cam Collier with a home run chain that says 'Reds Rehab Dawgs' — Jesús Cano (@Jesus_Cano88) May 15, 2025 Arias was the MVP of the Florida Man League last year at age 18, then ended with a credible .257/.331/.378 line in 36 games in Low A to finish his first season playing in the U.S. He went back to Low A and was so good the Red Sox bumped him up to High A before April was out. He hasn't stopped hitting since, with exceptional contact skills and breaking ball recognition already. He has whiffed on just 10 percent of the pitches he's swung at this year, which would be great for pretty much any player but is wild for a player who'll be 19 all season, playing in High A. His only real … I wouldn't even call it a flaw or a concern, but he does put the ball on the ground more often than you'd like, just over 50 percent on the season. If that improves, then we're looking at a shortstop with a plus hit tool and 20-plus homer upside. That's a prospect who ends up in the running to be No. 1 at some point. Franklin Arias stays hot with another four-hit game! — Red Sox Player Development (@RedSoxPlayerDev) May 31, 2025 Bonemer was the biggest enigma of the 2024 draft for me. He came into the spring a potential high first-rounder, but I got report after report that he wasn't hitting well even against mediocre competition in Michigan, and his swing seemed to change with every video I saw, starting in the fall of 2023. He has shown an advanced approach in his pro debut, with an excellent understanding of the strike zone, and the White Sox have encouraged him to go back to using the middle of the field more. That's a more natural plan for him and an improvement over his attempts to pull the ball in the air more last spring. You have to hit if you're going to hit for power. Bonemer's strong enough that the power will be there, and it's a positive sign that he's hitting as well as he is. Caleb Bonemer goes 106 MPH to LF for his 4th HR on the year. #Ballers up 1-0. — FutureSox (@FutureSox) May 28, 2025 Sproat was at No. 30 on the list coming into 2025, thanks to a strong full-season debut in 2024 that saw him dominate High A and Double A with premium stuff across the board, although he scuffled in seven starts in Triple A to end the year. Those difficulties have continued this year, as he has a 6.02 ERA with Syracuse with just a 16.6 percent strikeout rate and 10.7 percent walk rate. The walk rate is right around the International League average, and the strikeout rate is substantially below (23.6 percent). The quality of his stuff hasn't changed much, if at all, but he now has more than twice the experience at Triple A, and hitters there haven't had much trouble connecting with all of his pitches. Nothing he has thrown has a whiff rate over 28 percent this year, and he has given up too much hard contact, especially on the fastball. Lefties are destroying him, with a .333/.420/.479 line, as his changeup is too firm and he doesn't command it, leaving it up way too often. He probably needs another pitch, or a revised changeup, for lefties so he can stay a starter, even before we get into broader questions of fastball command or what to do with the variety of breaking pitches he throws. Advertisement Smith was the White Sox's first-round pick in 2024, going at No. 5, but his Double-A debut this year hasn't gone well — he made seven starts, and in 25 2/3 innings, he walked 20 batters before hitting the IL with soreness in his left elbow. An MRI didn't show any damage, so the injury isn't a catastrophe, but his 18.7 percent walk rate puts him in the bottom 5 percent among all minor-league pitchers who've thrown at least 20 innings this year. I'm hopeful this is just a matter of a small sample where Smith may have been fighting through some discomfort and thus unable to command the ball as he has in the past. That kind of walk rate, if sustained over a larger sample, will push him to the bullpen. Taylor was No. 89 on my top 100 coming into the year, after getting quite a bit of industry support when I talked to sources before compiling the rankings. He hit the ball consistently hard when he did hit it last year and looked like he'd be a 55 or better defender at third or second. He struck out a lot last year, however, and that's not showing any signs of abating, as he's hitting .183/.287/.327 in Double A with a 28.7 percent strikeout rate, which is at least down from 36.8 percent last year in Double A. He's 23 now and hasn't hit a lick in half a season at this level. I'm not giving up entirely, but the evidence is pretty strong that he's not going to hit. (Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; top photos: Chris Bernacchi / Diamond Images, Nick Cammett / Diamond Images / Getty Images, Jim Rassol / Imagn Images)
New York Times
27-01-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Top 100 MLB prospects 2025: Keith Law's rankings, with Roman Anthony at No. 1
Welcome to this year's ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. I've been compiling and writing such rankings for 18 years now, and those of you who've read them before will find the format here similar to those from the recent past. My farm reports covering at least 20 prospects in each team's system, plus notes on prospects who might appear in the majors this year or might be breakout prospects for the 2026 rankings, will appear the week of Feb. 3. Advertisement For the second year in a row, the most recent draft class is well-represented in the top 100; last year's list had 20 players from the 2023 draft class, and this year's list has 15, with more appearing on the 'prospects who just missed' column that will run on Wednesday. The 2024 draft was not very good, but the minors right now … the minors are not good, my friends. It's just not very deep, and getting to 100 names I felt good about was as hard as it has ever been. Some of it is the increasing pace with which teams are calling up top prospects, as 12 of my top 20 prospects from last year's list have graduated, but the bigger cause, in my opinion, is the forced contraction of the minor leagues back in 2021, which has rushed more players to Low A before they were ready and generally shrunk the time teams are giving to prospects who need more development. Even guys who struggle in A-ball tend to move up because players are coming right behind them who need those at-bats or innings, and the result is more guys stalling out or regressing or just never taking the step forward that scouts and/or analysts expected. With continued rumors that MLB wants to cut yet another entire rung from the minors, this year's top 100 should be a stark warning that the league is trying its best to strangle the goose that lays the golden eggs. To be eligible for this list, a player must still retain Rookie of the Year eligibility for 2025, and have no experience in NPB/KBO, as those are major leagues and calling, say, Roki Sasaki a 'prospect' is pretty silly (not to mention it takes up the space I'd rather use on an actual prospect). I also don't include the international free agents who just signed in January, since in nearly all cases those guys haven't been scouted by other teams in a year or more. I know of one such guy who was under a verbal agreement with the team that signed him before he turned 13. No one has an up-to-date scouting report on him. That's just not happening. Advertisement I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn't as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars. After that, I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won't reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures. I use 'seasonal age' for players, which is their age on July 1, 2025, the midpoint of the calendar. I use the 20-80 scale for tools (or 2-8 — same scale, different dialect), where 50 is average, 60 is plus, 40 is well below average, 80 is Pete Crow-Armstrong's defense, and 20 is Yasmani Grandal's foot speed. I try to discuss players' tools, their frames, their level of athleticism and other physical attributes, as well as their skills, their aptitude, and other mental or intellectual attributes as well. This is comparable to how major-league teams evaluate players, although they will always have the advantage of access to more and better data than those of us on the outside can get. The least I can do is try to reflect how the industry thinks about players, and give you the most accurate possible picture of the prospects in these rankings through both the lens of my own evaluations and those of the people within the industry whom I most trust. When referring to starting pitchers, I acknowledge that that role is still evolving and we don't have 200-inning guys anymore, with a lot of 'five-and-dive' (throw five innings and hit the showers) or twice-through-the-order guys, but I will still talk about league-average starters and sometimes refer to back-end (fourth or fifth starters) or above-average (ace, No. 2, and some No. 3) starters. Bear in mind that there is a range around any projection or prediction for a player — if I say I think someone's a No. 4 starter, he might have a ceiling as a No. 3 or more, and the floor of a middle reliever or a bulk reliever, where the No. 4 starter projection is the most likely or median outcome I see. And now, on to the rankings … (Top photo illustration by Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos from left to right Jackson Jobe, Samuel Basallo, Roman Anthony, Sebastian Walcott: Tim Warner, Christopher Pasatieri / Getty Images; Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images; Chris Bernacchi / Diamond Images via Getty Images)
