Top 100 MLB prospects 2025: Keith Law's rankings, with Roman Anthony at No. 1

New York Times

27-01-2025

Welcome to this year's ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. I've been compiling and writing such rankings for 18 years now, and those of you who've read them before will find the format here similar to those from the recent past.
My farm reports covering at least 20 prospects in each team's system, plus notes on prospects who might appear in the majors this year or might be breakout prospects for the 2026 rankings, will appear the week of Feb. 3.
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For the second year in a row, the most recent draft class is well-represented in the top 100; last year's list had 20 players from the 2023 draft class, and this year's list has 15, with more appearing on the 'prospects who just missed' column that will run on Wednesday. The 2024 draft was not very good, but the minors right now … the minors are not good, my friends. It's just not very deep, and getting to 100 names I felt good about was as hard as it has ever been.
Some of it is the increasing pace with which teams are calling up top prospects, as 12 of my top 20 prospects from last year's list have graduated, but the bigger cause, in my opinion, is the forced contraction of the minor leagues back in 2021, which has rushed more players to Low A before they were ready and generally shrunk the time teams are giving to prospects who need more development.
Even guys who struggle in A-ball tend to move up because players are coming right behind them who need those at-bats or innings, and the result is more guys stalling out or regressing or just never taking the step forward that scouts and/or analysts expected. With continued rumors that MLB wants to cut yet another entire rung from the minors, this year's top 100 should be a stark warning that the league is trying its best to strangle the goose that lays the golden eggs.
To be eligible for this list, a player must still retain Rookie of the Year eligibility for 2025, and have no experience in NPB/KBO, as those are major leagues and calling, say, Roki Sasaki a 'prospect' is pretty silly (not to mention it takes up the space I'd rather use on an actual prospect).
I also don't include the international free agents who just signed in January, since in nearly all cases those guys haven't been scouted by other teams in a year or more. I know of one such guy who was under a verbal agreement with the team that signed him before he turned 13. No one has an up-to-date scouting report on him. That's just not happening.
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I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn't as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars. After that, I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won't reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures.
I use 'seasonal age' for players, which is their age on July 1, 2025, the midpoint of the calendar. I use the 20-80 scale for tools (or 2-8 — same scale, different dialect), where 50 is average, 60 is plus, 40 is well below average, 80 is Pete Crow-Armstrong's defense, and 20 is Yasmani Grandal's foot speed. I try to discuss players' tools, their frames, their level of athleticism and other physical attributes, as well as their skills, their aptitude, and other mental or intellectual attributes as well.
This is comparable to how major-league teams evaluate players, although they will always have the advantage of access to more and better data than those of us on the outside can get. The least I can do is try to reflect how the industry thinks about players, and give you the most accurate possible picture of the prospects in these rankings through both the lens of my own evaluations and those of the people within the industry whom I most trust.
When referring to starting pitchers, I acknowledge that that role is still evolving and we don't have 200-inning guys anymore, with a lot of 'five-and-dive' (throw five innings and hit the showers) or twice-through-the-order guys, but I will still talk about league-average starters and sometimes refer to back-end (fourth or fifth starters) or above-average (ace, No. 2, and some No. 3) starters. Bear in mind that there is a range around any projection or prediction for a player — if I say I think someone's a No. 4 starter, he might have a ceiling as a No. 3 or more, and the floor of a middle reliever or a bulk reliever, where the No. 4 starter projection is the most likely or median outcome I see.
And now, on to the rankings …
(Top photo illustration by Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos from left to right Jackson Jobe, Samuel Basallo, Roman Anthony, Sebastian Walcott: Tim Warner, Christopher Pasatieri / Getty Images; Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images; Chris Bernacchi / Diamond Images via Getty Images)