Latest news with #MLIVPulse
Los Angeles Times
06-06-2025
- Business
- Los Angeles Times
Stocks will rally despite extended dollar declines, markets survey finds
US equities will put the worst of this year's trade-war turmoil behind them and rally to fresh highs in 2025, according to a survey of Bloomberg subscribers who attended a panel discussion on macro trends. The S&P 500 will climb to 6,500 — a better than 9% increase from Thursday's close — by year-end, according to 44% of the 27 responses in a Markets Live Pulse survey. The index was seen reaching that level by the first half of next year by 26% of participants, with 11% saying it would happen in the second half and the remainder estimating 2027 or later. A rally to 6,500 would likely mean the market fully moves on from concerns that President Donald Trump's tariffs may severely damage the economy. It would represent a substantial recovery from the impact of the trade war, which currently has the US benchmark hovering just above its starting level for 2025. Expectations for the dollar are gloomier, with 68% of the 25 respondents to that question forecasting the US currency will keep falling at least until the first half of next year. That includes the 40% of participants who expect the depreciation trend to extend into 2027. The MLIV panel discussed both whether US exceptionalism in equities was past its use-by date, and the potential that concerns about how sustainable the dollar's haven role has become. The survey responses may be taken to signal doubts that US equities will be knocked from their perch anytime soon, especially given the still-positive impacts from the AI boom expected to feed through into corporate earnings. The dollar's downtrend is seen as far more sustainable. That signals respondents may be leaning into the idea that the currency channel will go on being the clearest expression of concerns regarding US assets in general. If investors are going to be demanding a greater premium to put their money into the US that will come via a lower US dollar level, rather than via sustained, serious declines in nominal asset prices. As for Treasuries, responses were more evenly split. A modest majority, 56% of the 25 who answered that question, expected the 10-year yield to end 2025 at 4.6% or above. That included the 24% of the total who forecast it would be above 5%. The yield was at 4.39% on Thursday. Some 20% saw it dropping below 4%. The MLIV Pulse survey was conducted among Bloomberg clients immediately after MLIV's Money & Macro panel held Thursday on How to Trade the New Markets Regime. Sign up for future surveys here. Reynolds writes for Bloomberg
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Markets Set for Shock From Disappearing Chinese Goods
(Bloomberg) -- Investors are in for a shock in the next few weeks as the slowing flow of goods from China underscores the risks tariffs bring to the US economy, the latest MLIV Pulse survey showed. NJ Transit Urges Commuters to Work Remotely If Union Strikes NYC Lost $9 Billion of Income to Miami, Palm Beach in Five Years New York City Transit System Chips Away at Subway Fare Evasion NYC's Congestion Toll Raised $159 Million in the First Quarter The Last Thing US Transit Agencies Should Do Now Of the 248 respondents to a poll conducted April 28-30, 82% said the impact of fewer shipments from China to American businesses is either somewhat or heavily underpriced in markets. A large majority also see tariffs triggering a US recession this year. Since President Donald Trump raised tariffs on China to 145% in early April, cargo shipments have fallen sharply. But it takes about 30 days for a shipment from China to get to US ports on the West Coast, meaning the US is still receiving ships that departed before the tariff increases were unveiled. Economic Contraction Businesses have clearly anticipated the impact well before any formal announcement, with first-quarter gross domestic product data showing the US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 as imports surged. 'GDP tells us about the pull forward of demand, not about the potential for a collapse in demand from tariffs — which is what the high-frequency port data is suggestive of,' said Jake Schurmeier, portfolio manager at Harbor Capital Advisors. 'The data is noisy, but directionally consistent with what you would expect if US-China tariffs amount to a de facto trade embargo,' Schurmeier added. While economists expect the sharp widening in the trade deficit to reverse next quarter, they also warn of a risk supply shock resulting from higher levies. In a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, the president argued a recent decrease in cargo flows signaled Beijing would soon need to engage. 'I want China to do well,' Trump said. 'I want every country to do well, but they have to treat us fairly also.' Brace for May Asked when Americans will start seeing the impact of that drastic reduction in shipments, 49% of respondents said in the second half of May, while nearly a third expect it in June or later. Even if trade-war hostilities ease, the ripples are already reverberating. The executive director of the Port of Los Angeles said this week the port is already seeing the flow of cargo slow. Retail stocks will be the most vulnerable to disruptions from a China supply shock, according to more than two-thirds of survey participants. Technology came in a distant second, garnering 12% of responses. Walmart Inc., Home Depot Inc. and Target Corp. told Trump last week they expect goods won't be there when they're needed. Other companies including carmakers, brewers, airlines and packaged food makers also sounded the alarm that the tariffs were beginning to wreak havoc on their businesses. United Parcel Service Inc., long considered a barometer for the wider economy because its delivery network spans the industrial and retail sectors, backed away from its 2025 financial guidance this week. The company refrained from giving an update 'given the current macroeconomic uncertainty.' 'Growth Shock' Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect a significant reduction in tariff threats as the most likely outcome if US markets sell off aggressively due to a supply shock. Trump has shown a willingness to back down from his trade bluster. After unveiling global tariffs of as much as 50% on April 2, the president announced a pause a week later. 'Although the recent reversals reduce some of the tail risk to the global economy, the tariff package that remains in place is massive and there are still threats in the air,' according to ABN Amro Bank NV economists Arjen van Dijkhuizen, Jan Paul van de Kerke and Aggie van Huisseling. 'The unusually large trade-policy related uncertainty remains which by itself hurts growth, and the tariffs will likely cause a large growth shock upon implementation,' the economists wrote in a note on Wednesday. --With assistance from Denitsa Tsekova. Made-in-USA Wheelbarrows Promoted by Trump Are Now Made in China As More Women Lift Weights, Gyms Might Never Be the Same The Mastermind of the Yellowstone Universe Isn't Done Yet How the FDA Helped Ignite, and Then Worsened, the Opioid Crisis Healthy Sodas Like Poppi, Olipop Are Drawing PepsiCo's and Coca-Cola's Attention ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
01-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Vanishing Chinese Goods Will Hit Unprepared Markets, Survey Shows
Investors are in for a shock in the next few weeks as the slowing flow of goods from China underscores the risks tariffs bring to the US economy, the latest MLIV Pulse survey showed. Of the 248 respondents to a poll conducted April 28-30, 82% said the impact of fewer shipments from China to American businesses is either somewhat or heavily underpriced in markets. A large majority also see tariffs triggering a US recession this year.
Bloomberg
11-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
The Risk-Free Asset Class Is Looking a Lot Riskier These Days
As the US has ramped up tariffs on China and offered other countries a reprieve, where are the smart opportunities for investment? Tell us in the latest MLIV Pulse survey. Billed on Wall Street as so rock-solid safe they're risk-free, US Treasury bonds have long served as first port of call for investors during times of panic. They rallied during the global financial crisis, on 9/11 and even when America's own credit rating was cut.
Bloomberg
10-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bond Vigilantes Make Their Presence Known at the White House
Now that the US has issued a reprieve for many of its broad tariffs, what are you doing with your investments? Tell us in the latest MLIV Pulse survey. For all of the attention paid to the slump in stocks since Donald Trump announced his tariffs, in the end it was the bond market that prompted him to reverse course.
