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News18
2 days ago
- Business
- News18
The Smart Economy: Opinion Trading and Indias New Skill Wave
New Delhi [India], August 14 (ANI): I discovered opinion trading when a friend sent me a link to a cricket market. What began as a passing curiosity quickly became a passion. I found myself delving deep into the nuances of the game, learning to interpret match dynamics and time my decisions precisely. Over time, opinion trading became my favourite way to challenge my sports knowledge and stay deeply connected to the action on the field. This journey has shown me how skill, analysis, and engagement can transform a casual interest into a rewarding pursuit rooted in strategy and real-world personal experience reflects a larger trend shaping India's digital landscape. The country's rise as a digital powerhouse is driven by transformative platforms and industries that understand the potential of its vast, young, and tech-savvy population. Among these, opinion trading stands out as a particularly potent force. It not only mirrors India's passion for innovation but also exemplifies its evolution toward a knowledge-led, skill-based economy. What makes this phenomenon especially noteworthy is how it unites data, reasoning, and real-world awareness into a truly participatory economic movement. A Participatory Marketplace for the Digital Age In just a few short years, opinion trading has evolved from a novel concept to a major pillar of India's digital economy. Unlike formats that passively engage users, opinion trading requires participants to analyze real-time information, such as live sporting events, and articulate their conclusions through structured, transparent markets. Leading platforms like Probo and MPL Opinio typify this transformation, inviting users to leverage their expertise and analytical prowess within a regulated framework that favours consistency, insight, and informed segment now commands the attention of more than 50 million Indians, with annual transaction values crossing $6 billion and an infusion of over $500 million in industry investment as of 2025. Such momentum has translated into rapid job creation, technological advancement, and direct fiscal benefits for the Indian state, a trajectory that is only expected to accelerate in the coming years. Skill: The Foundation of Sustainable Growth The true genius of opinion trading lies in its clear distinction from forms of entertainment that hinge on unpredictability. Here, mathematical models, empirical data, and independent research confirm that success is rooted in discernment, critical thinking, and the ability to process and act on ever-evolving streams of information. Seasoned participants display consistent, superior outcomes over time, an outcome explainable only by the accumulation and application of anti-fraud systems, real-time analytics, and thoughtfully curated event markets help sustain the integrity of this structure, ensuring that platforms reward learning, adaptation, and rational decision-making. The best performers are not those who make random choices, but those who demonstrate systematic information analysis and rapidly iterate on feedback, a remarkable alignment with the demands of the 'insight economy." This evolution is underscored by rigorous studies and data from India's leading platforms and independent academic individual achievement, opinion trading is rapidly becoming a testbed for broader financial technologies and digital payment adoption. Every trade on these platforms reinforces trust in UPI and wallet-based payments, a critical leap toward a cashless, seamless economy. The sector's flourishing also fuels the development of cutting-edge AI, data analytics, and risk management systems, introducing Indian engineers and technologists to frontier challenges in automation and computational decision sciences. A Tax and Employment Windfall for the State The economic value generated by opinion trading extends to the public coffers as well. With a flat 30% tax deduction at the source on net winnings, the industry expands the nation's formal tax base, particularly bringing in younger, digitally native users who might not otherwise intersect with traditional tax nets. Platform revenues, already above $120 million annually, are only a part of the story; the state stands to gain from both direct and ancillary taxes as the ecosystem is another significant dividend. The industry has already created more than 10,000 jobs, with robust projections indicating that over 100,000 new roles could emerge in the near future. These opportunities range from product development and risk management to data science, compliance, and customer support, offering a meaningful boost to India's innovation economy. Societal Ripples: Building Decentralized, Data-Literate Networks Perhaps the most transformative benefit of opinion trading is its capacity to create giant, decentralized knowledge networks. As millions of Indians engage with real-time questions, especially within the sports industry, they collectively generate a crowdsourced intelligence layer that businesses and academics can learn from. This democratization of decision science not only fosters individual growth but also provides invaluable insights into public sentiment, societal trends, and emerging opportunities. Global Outlook and the Path Forward With solid foundations in skill, transparency, and technological sophistication, India is now positioned to lead the world in regulated, participatory prediction markets. Ongoing research and detailed technical analyses, such as those presented in 'The Question of Skill in Opinion Trading" and 'Quantifying Skill in Opinion Trading Platforms, provide clarity and rigor, establishing frameworks for responsible regulation and continued innovation. These studies highlight India's ability to adapt global best practices to its unique context, ensuring continued user protection and market integrity. Charting India's Next Digital Chapter Far from being a fleeting trend, opinion trading is redefining how India understands and interacts with its digital economy. It is ushering in an era where reasoning is rewarded, knowledge is monetized, and the collective intelligence of the nation finds a new marketplace. The journey ahead, anchored by user-centric regulation and relentless innovation, could see India become the global capital of skill-based, insight-driven digital a society and an economy, India thrives when it welcomes new forms of engagement, learning, and economic inclusion. Opinion trading, at the intersection of skill, technology, and public participation, is a resounding affirmation of that spirit, one that promises dividends not just for users and platforms, but for the nation as a whole. (ANI)Disclaimer:: Ankush Kumar is a Part-Time educator and small business owner, running a general store while teaching 11th and 12th grade accounting. He is committed to equipping students with essential financial skills and fostering practical entrepreneurship within the community. The views expressed in this article are his own.
Mint
23-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Haryana bans opinion trading apps
Haryana has banned opinion trading apps that allow betting on future events retrospectively from 9 April, according to an official Gazette notification reviewed by Mint. Prompted by a public interest litigation and subsequent high court intervention, the move renders platforms like Probo, SportsBaazi, and MPL Opinio illegal within the state. The state government ordered the ban under its Prevention of Public Gambling Act, 2025. This month, the Chhattisgarh High Court also directed geo-blocking of platforms like Probo, SportsBaazi, and MPL Opinio within the state, though it allowed them to operate elsewhere in the country. While companies did not immediately respond to media queries, MPL Opinio stopped operations in Haryana earlier this week — before the formal notification bringing the law into force. Though the Act exempts games of skill, it leaves out formats like fantasy sports, raising concerns over legal ambiguity. The Haryana Prevention of Public Gambling Bill, 2025 is aimed at curbing public gambling, including betting on sports and elections. One of the key provisions of the Act targets match-fixing and spot-fixing in sports, making such offences punishable with a minimum of three years' imprisonment, which may extend to five years, along with a fine of no less than ₹ 5 lakh. Repeat offenders face harsher penalties, with imprisonment of up to seven years. However, while the Act was enacted earlier, it has only now been notified. Previously, the Securities and Exchange Board of India also distanced itself from the opinion trading ecosystem, stating that such platforms do not fall under its regulatory purview. Despite lingering legal ambiguity, the opinion trading space continues to thrive. Industry estimates suggest that over 50 million users now engage with such platforms, generating nearly ₹ 50,000 crore in annual transaction volumes, with projected revenues of ₹ 1,000 crore for FY25. Leading platforms like Probo have attracted significant investor interest, raising $28 million from names such as Peak XV Partners, Elevation Capital, and The Fundamentum Partnership. TradeX counts Y Combinator among its backers, while SportsBaazi, originally a fantasy sports operator, has ventured into opinion trading—highlighting the sector's growing appeal. The Haryana law broadly defines a "bet" as any agreement—oral, written, or otherwise—between parties on the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event with an uncertain outcome, where incorrect predictions result in the loss or payment of a monetary or non-monetary stake.
Mint
02-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Mint Primer: Why Sebi wants investors to skip opinion trading
This week, the markets regulator issued a note advising investors to stay away from 'opinion trading' platforms, warning that it does not regulate these entities. Why is the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) unhappy about opinion trading? Mint explains. Also Read | Mint Primer: US GDP contracts 0.3% in Q1—why the IMF still sees no recession Sebi told investors that 'opinion trading' platforms use the terminology and structures taken from regulated markets, including terms such as 'profits', 'stop loss', and 'trading'. These phrases make opinion trading platforms seem like they are similar to regular trading platforms allowing trade in stocks, bonds, and other financial securities. However, Sebi warned, an opinion or a Yes/No prediction to a question is not considered a financial security and cannot be legally traded like a stock. Sebi does not regulate these platforms and they operate in a legal grey area. In short: 'opinion traders' are on their own. Also Read | Mint Primer: What IT companies' Q4 show means for investors Opinion (or event) trading apps allow users to place bids on the outcome of an event, such as the outcome of a cricket match, the value of assets such as Bitcoin. Globally, 'prediction markets' consider the answer to the question as a 'contract', much like a futures or an options contract. However, India's securities law does not recognise outcomes of events such as cricket matches as a valid contract. Therefore apps like Nandan Nilekani-backed Probo and Sequoia-backed MPL Opinio are not regulated by Sebi. With no specific laws, they are largely considered to be a subset of real money gaming. Also Read | Clicks & growls: Why AI's hearing the call of the wild Yes, in the US. Kalshi is an opinion trading platform that is regulated by the US's Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is legal for all US residents. However, other global firms such as Polymarket are illegal in the country. An older venture named iPredict ran in New Zealand between 2008 and 2016, but shut down following legal challenges. Opinion trading is neither legal nor illegal. But trading apps are making a case to recognise it as skill-based gaming, and not betting. Last week, two papers made this argument; the first was written by a professor from IIT Delhi and commissioned by trading firm Probo, and another by law firm Evam Law and Policy. They used mathematical evidence to show that successfully taking positions on the outcome of events—such as a cricket match—is determined by a user's skills and knowledge, and not by chance. If they can prove it, they could be recognised as real-money skill-based games, much like fantasy cricket or online poker. But that may not resolve their regulatory problems. Last year, India imposed a 28% GST on real money gaming apps. This is applicable on their prize pool (the total amount users spend) and not on the companies' revenue. Taxation has hurt many real-money gaming companies. But Y-Combinator backed opinion trading app Better Opinions pivoted to real-money gaming after the new taxation kicked in.
