Latest news with #MPLOpinio
Mint
23-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Haryana bans opinion trading apps
Haryana has banned opinion trading apps that allow betting on future events retrospectively from 9 April, according to an official Gazette notification reviewed by Mint. Prompted by a public interest litigation and subsequent high court intervention, the move renders platforms like Probo, SportsBaazi, and MPL Opinio illegal within the state. The state government ordered the ban under its Prevention of Public Gambling Act, 2025. This month, the Chhattisgarh High Court also directed geo-blocking of platforms like Probo, SportsBaazi, and MPL Opinio within the state, though it allowed them to operate elsewhere in the country. While companies did not immediately respond to media queries, MPL Opinio stopped operations in Haryana earlier this week — before the formal notification bringing the law into force. Though the Act exempts games of skill, it leaves out formats like fantasy sports, raising concerns over legal ambiguity. The Haryana Prevention of Public Gambling Bill, 2025 is aimed at curbing public gambling, including betting on sports and elections. One of the key provisions of the Act targets match-fixing and spot-fixing in sports, making such offences punishable with a minimum of three years' imprisonment, which may extend to five years, along with a fine of no less than ₹ 5 lakh. Repeat offenders face harsher penalties, with imprisonment of up to seven years. However, while the Act was enacted earlier, it has only now been notified. Previously, the Securities and Exchange Board of India also distanced itself from the opinion trading ecosystem, stating that such platforms do not fall under its regulatory purview. Despite lingering legal ambiguity, the opinion trading space continues to thrive. Industry estimates suggest that over 50 million users now engage with such platforms, generating nearly ₹ 50,000 crore in annual transaction volumes, with projected revenues of ₹ 1,000 crore for FY25. Leading platforms like Probo have attracted significant investor interest, raising $28 million from names such as Peak XV Partners, Elevation Capital, and The Fundamentum Partnership. TradeX counts Y Combinator among its backers, while SportsBaazi, originally a fantasy sports operator, has ventured into opinion trading—highlighting the sector's growing appeal. The Haryana law broadly defines a "bet" as any agreement—oral, written, or otherwise—between parties on the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event with an uncertain outcome, where incorrect predictions result in the loss or payment of a monetary or non-monetary stake.
Mint
02-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Mint Primer: Why Sebi wants investors to skip opinion trading
This week, the markets regulator issued a note advising investors to stay away from 'opinion trading' platforms, warning that it does not regulate these entities. Why is the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) unhappy about opinion trading? Mint explains. Also Read | Mint Primer: US GDP contracts 0.3% in Q1—why the IMF still sees no recession Sebi told investors that 'opinion trading' platforms use the terminology and structures taken from regulated markets, including terms such as 'profits', 'stop loss', and 'trading'. These phrases make opinion trading platforms seem like they are similar to regular trading platforms allowing trade in stocks, bonds, and other financial securities. However, Sebi warned, an opinion or a Yes/No prediction to a question is not considered a financial security and cannot be legally traded like a stock. Sebi does not regulate these platforms and they operate in a legal grey area. In short: 'opinion traders' are on their own. Also Read | Mint Primer: What IT companies' Q4 show means for investors Opinion (or event) trading apps allow users to place bids on the outcome of an event, such as the outcome of a cricket match, the value of assets such as Bitcoin. Globally, 'prediction markets' consider the answer to the question as a 'contract', much like a futures or an options contract. However, India's securities law does not recognise outcomes of events such as cricket matches as a valid contract. Therefore apps like Nandan Nilekani-backed Probo and Sequoia-backed MPL Opinio are not regulated by Sebi. With no specific laws, they are largely considered to be a subset of real money gaming. Also Read | Clicks & growls: Why AI's hearing the call of the wild Yes, in the US. Kalshi is an opinion trading platform that is regulated by the US's Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is legal for all US residents. However, other global firms such as Polymarket are illegal in the country. An older venture named iPredict ran in New Zealand between 2008 and 2016, but shut down following legal challenges. Opinion trading is neither legal nor illegal. But trading apps are making a case to recognise it as skill-based gaming, and not betting. Last week, two papers made this argument; the first was written by a professor from IIT Delhi and commissioned by trading firm Probo, and another by law firm Evam Law and Policy. They used mathematical evidence to show that successfully taking positions on the outcome of events—such as a cricket match—is determined by a user's skills and knowledge, and not by chance. If they can prove it, they could be recognised as real-money skill-based games, much like fantasy cricket or online poker. But that may not resolve their regulatory problems. Last year, India imposed a 28% GST on real money gaming apps. This is applicable on their prize pool (the total amount users spend) and not on the companies' revenue. Taxation has hurt many real-money gaming companies. But Y-Combinator backed opinion trading app Better Opinions pivoted to real-money gaming after the new taxation kicked in.
