Latest news with #MalalaLin
Fibre2Fashion
01-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
China's leading index falls again in May, but recession risks ease
The Conference Board's (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China fell by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 148.9, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. The LEI dropped 1.2 per cent over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, though this was a smaller contraction than the 1.6 per cent recorded in the preceding six months. The continued decline was attributed to weakening consumer expectations, a soft logistics prosperity index, and a drop in new export orders. China's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.3 per cent in May 2025, signalling continued economic headwinds from weak consumer expectations, logistics, and export orders. However, recession risks have eased. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.4 per cent. The Conference Board forecasts China's 2025 real GDP growth to remain resilient at 4.5 to 5 per cent. 'The China LEI decreased again in May . Much like previous months, the main drivers of the decline in the LEI were weaknesses in consumer expectations, the logistics prosperity index, and new export orders. Both the semi-annual and annual growth rates of the LEI remained negative, continuing to suggest challenges ahead,' said Malala Lin, economic research associate at The Conference Board. 'However, the 6-month growth rate has become less negative and no longer signalled recession risks since February 2025, despite the persisting weakness among the underlying components of the LEI.' 'Furthermore, it is expected that the de-escalation of the China-US tariffs tensions and the implemented monetary policies will help mitigate risks to growth going forward. Overall, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to remain resilient, between 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent in 2025,' added Lin. In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose by 0.4 per cent in May to 152.8. This follows a sharp 0.8 per cent drop in April. The CEI grew 0.9 per cent between November 2024 and May 2025—substantially slower than the 3 per cent gain observed in the prior six-month period. Despite ongoing weakness in key sectors, The Conference Board maintains a cautiously optimistic forecast, projecting China's real GDP growth to remain resilient at between 4.5 and 5 per cent for 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Fibre2Fashion
30-05-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
China's LEI & CEI slip again, raising economic concerns: TCB
China's economic outlook showed further signs of moderation as The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.3 per cent in April 2025 to 149.2 (2016=100), following an identical decline in March. China's economic outlook softened as the LEI fell 0.3 per cent in April 2025, marking a 1.3 per cent drop over six months due to weak consumer sentiment, logistics, and export orders. The CEI also declined 0.7 per cent, signalling weaker current activity. However, easing US-China tariffs and new monetary measures may support growth, with 2025 GDP forecast at 4.5â€'5.0 per cent. Over the six months from October 2024 to April 2025, the LEI dropped by 1.3 per cent, easing from a steeper 1.7 per cent fall in the previous six-month period. 'For at least 6 months, the month-on-month declines in the LEI have primarily been driven by persistent weakness in three components: consumer expectations, logistics prosperity index and new export orders in manufacturing. The new export orders fell to a reading last seen in 2022, likely because of the steep US tariffs first imposed in early April,' Malala Lin, economic research associate, at The Conference Board said in a release. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, declined by 0.7 per cent to 152.4 in April, partly reversing March's 1.7 per cent gain. CEI growth over the recent six-month period slowed markedly to 0.7 per cent, compared to 4.0 per cent in the preceding six months. 'However, not captured in this latest LEI reading, most recently, the US and China have reached an agreement to de-escalate tariff impositions, which could alleviate pressure on export driven sectors of China's economy. Additionally, 10 coordinated monetary policy measures were launched in early May to mitigate the impacts of trade tensions. While the negative LEI growth rates still signal headwinds ahead, these extensive monetary actions are expected to support growth going forward. Overall, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth at between 4.5 per cent to 5.0 per cent in 2025,' Lin added. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Fibre2Fashion
29-04-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
India's LEI rises slightly in March amid signs of slowing growth: TCB
The Leading Economic Index (LEI) for India increased by 0.1 per cent in March 2025 to 158.7, after decreasing by 0.1 per cent in February, according to The Conference Board (TCB). Overall, the LEI grew by 0.5 per cent over the six-month period from September 2024 to March 2025, half the 1.0 per cent growth over the previous six-month period between March and September 2024. India's Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased by 3.8 per cent in March to 147.7, partially recovering after the steep drop of 6.8 per cent in February. The Index expanded by 2.6 per cent over the past six-month period ending in March 2025, a much faster rate than the 0.9 per cent growth over the previous six months, The Conference Board said in a press release. India's Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose by 0.1 per cent to 158.7 in March 2025, while the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) jumped by 3.8 per cent to 147.7, according to The Conference Board. Despite slight improvements, sluggish LEI growth signals near-term challenges. India's GDP is forecast to slow to 5.9 per cent in 2025, down from 6.6 per cent in 2024. 'The LEI for India ticked up in March. The marginal gain reflects continued improvements in money supply and the interest rate spread, which offset the negative contributions from the other LEI components. Both the six-month and annual growth rates picked up slightly in March, however, they have not recovered all the lost momentum since October of 2024,' said Malala Lin, economic research associate, at The Conference Board . 'These sluggish growth rates for the LEI may indicate economic challenges in the near-term. In line with this, The Conference Board currently forecasts that India's real GDP will moderate after a strong Q1 and slow to 5.9 per cent growth in 2025 from 6.6 per cent in 2024.' Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
