China's LEI & CEI slip again, raising economic concerns: TCB
China's economic outlook softened as the LEI fell 0.3 per cent in April 2025, marking a 1.3 per cent drop over six months due to weak consumer sentiment, logistics, and export orders. The CEI also declined 0.7 per cent, signalling weaker current activity. However, easing US-China tariffs and new monetary measures may support growth, with 2025 GDP forecast at 4.5â€'5.0 per cent.
Over the six months from October 2024 to April 2025, the LEI dropped by 1.3 per cent, easing from a steeper 1.7 per cent fall in the previous six-month period.
'For at least 6 months, the month-on-month declines in the LEI have primarily been driven by persistent weakness in three components: consumer expectations, logistics prosperity index and new export orders in manufacturing. The new export orders fell to a reading last seen in 2022, likely because of the steep US tariffs first imposed in early April,' Malala Lin, economic research associate, at The Conference Board said in a release.
Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, declined by 0.7 per cent to 152.4 in April, partly reversing March's 1.7 per cent gain. CEI growth over the recent six-month period slowed markedly to 0.7 per cent, compared to 4.0 per cent in the preceding six months.
'However, not captured in this latest LEI reading, most recently, the US and China have reached an agreement to de-escalate tariff impositions, which could alleviate pressure on export driven sectors of China's economy. Additionally, 10 coordinated monetary policy measures were launched in early May to mitigate the impacts of trade tensions. While the negative LEI growth rates still signal headwinds ahead, these extensive monetary actions are expected to support growth going forward. Overall, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth at between 4.5 per cent to 5.0 per cent in 2025,' Lin added.
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