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Los Angeles Times
a day ago
- Business
- Los Angeles Times
Stocks will rally despite extended dollar declines, markets survey finds
US equities will put the worst of this year's trade-war turmoil behind them and rally to fresh highs in 2025, according to a survey of Bloomberg subscribers who attended a panel discussion on macro trends. The S&P 500 will climb to 6,500 — a better than 9% increase from Thursday's close — by year-end, according to 44% of the 27 responses in a Markets Live Pulse survey. The index was seen reaching that level by the first half of next year by 26% of participants, with 11% saying it would happen in the second half and the remainder estimating 2027 or later. A rally to 6,500 would likely mean the market fully moves on from concerns that President Donald Trump's tariffs may severely damage the economy. It would represent a substantial recovery from the impact of the trade war, which currently has the US benchmark hovering just above its starting level for 2025. Expectations for the dollar are gloomier, with 68% of the 25 respondents to that question forecasting the US currency will keep falling at least until the first half of next year. That includes the 40% of participants who expect the depreciation trend to extend into 2027. The MLIV panel discussed both whether US exceptionalism in equities was past its use-by date, and the potential that concerns about how sustainable the dollar's haven role has become. The survey responses may be taken to signal doubts that US equities will be knocked from their perch anytime soon, especially given the still-positive impacts from the AI boom expected to feed through into corporate earnings. The dollar's downtrend is seen as far more sustainable. That signals respondents may be leaning into the idea that the currency channel will go on being the clearest expression of concerns regarding US assets in general. If investors are going to be demanding a greater premium to put their money into the US that will come via a lower US dollar level, rather than via sustained, serious declines in nominal asset prices. As for Treasuries, responses were more evenly split. A modest majority, 56% of the 25 who answered that question, expected the 10-year yield to end 2025 at 4.6% or above. That included the 24% of the total who forecast it would be above 5%. The yield was at 4.39% on Thursday. Some 20% saw it dropping below 4%. The MLIV Pulse survey was conducted among Bloomberg clients immediately after MLIV's Money & Macro panel held Thursday on How to Trade the New Markets Regime. Sign up for future surveys here. Reynolds writes for Bloomberg
Yahoo
24-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Giving workers unlimited time off could help companies outperform the S&P 500, investors say
Businesses grappling with falling stock prices amid an economic downturn like the one the world could be approaching should consider revisiting their vacation policies, an investor survey suggests. Bloomberg's research reveals that approximately two-thirds of investors see potential in companies with unlimited time-off policies, suggesting they could potentially outperform the S&P 500. In a survey of 1,061 participants conducted through Bloomberg's weekly Markets Live Pulse, 65% of professional investors and 57% of retail investors expressed the belief that companies offering unlimited vacation could fare better than the top 500 companies listed on the U.S. stock exchange. The perk, which originated at small Silicon Valley startups, has slowly trickled its way to major corporations like LinkedIn, Netflix, and Microsoft. Even, Goldman Sachs, which is well known for its long hours and always-on culture, introduced the generous holiday package in 2022 (albeit only for senior staff). Currently, just 7% of companies in the States offer unlimited PTO, but demand for it is growing: In 2022, Glassdoor reported that mentions of "unlimited" leave policies in employee reviews were up 75% from pre-pandemic levels. Not only does the policy enable employees to attract top talent, but it also helps cut costs associated with unused vacation. 'If I'm the CFO, I'm loving this. This is a big money saver for me,' Rich Fuerstenberg, senior partner at consulting firm Mercer told Bloomberg, who thinks that its adoption was accelerated by the pandemic lockdowns because unused leave ballooned when employees weren't able to travel. Really, offering unlimited PTO is more than a well-being booster for workers; it also enables firms to eliminate accrued vacation liabilities from their books. What's more, it's unlikely that workers will even make the most of the generous offer. Counterintuitively, offering staff unlimited time off work won't result in staff being endlessly away from their desks. Prior research indicates that many workers do not fully utilize the vacation time offered by their employers. This trend is particularly evident in the United States, where almost 46% of employees do not use all their allocated paid time off. About two-thirds of participants in Bloomberg's survey reported receiving more than 20 paid vacation days per year from their employer. However, less than 40% of respondents actually took more than 20 days off. That doesn't change with the introduction of unlimited PTO: When Bloomberg asked respondents how much leave they would take if they had an unlimited vacation, 41% said that they would take no more than 20 days of leave. 'People feel guilty to take any time off with unlimited PTO lest they get dinged by their manager,' one survey respondent wrote. 'Unlimited PTO is garbage.' Ultimately, more than two-thirds of unlimited vacation companies said the amount of time staff took off after rolling out the policy didn't change, Mercer told Bloomberg—and of those that did report a change, the majority said employees actually took less leave. Despite the little difference unlimited PTO makes to annual leave taken and its positive impact on stock price, investors don't predict it will become the next up-and-coming workplace perk. Only 18%, or less than one in five, believe the trend of unlimited vacation time is likely to take off. Instead, over half of those surveyed believe the four-day workweek will gain the most traction, followed by 20% who think that sabbatical policies would. Plus, Fuerstenberg isn't even sure whether dropping annual leave limits alone will directly lead to a boost in performance, or if it's the culmination of trends that startups can quickly adopt which makes them so attractive on the stock market. 'It's a chicken or the egg sort of question,' he said. 'Are they outperforming the S&P 500 because of their unlimited PTO policy or because they're the type of employer who's going to have an unlimited PTO policy?' A version of this story originally published on on Aug. 15, 2023. More on time off: Companies are making big changes to their leave programs in an effort to hold onto workers Job insecurity from DOGE layoffs and tariffs are shattering Americans' vacation plans The next level of super-luxe travel: what a $100,000 vacation looks like This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
