Latest news with #MathieuBoulègue
CBC
a day ago
- Business
- CBC
NATO's rearmament reignites age-old defence debate of quantity vs. quality
Social Sharing As NATO nations, including Canada, ramp up rearmament, they are increasingly confronted with various ghosts of the Cold War, notably the resilience of Russian industry and its capacity to be able to deliver weapons — that while often technologically inferior to the West — are "good enough" to wage war. Moscow's ability to produce en masse drones, missiles, aircraft and other weapons of war has been hampered by sanctions and a long-term erosion of quality is taking place. "Russia is currently struggling to build genuinely new and technologically advanced systems," said the report by Mathieu Boulègue, published last month by the U.K.-based Chatham House think-tank. "Instead, it is relying on Soviet-era legacy systems and research. It is also heavily dependent on third-party suppliers to replace essential Western-made components — with import substitutions and domestic production failing to meet requirements." The report, in part, exposes one of the biggest debates going on in the Western defence community right now. The 32 members of the NATO military alliance have agreed to drastically expand military spending, aiming to deliver five per cent of their gross domestic product for defence spending by 2035. The emphasis, especially for Canada, is in high-tech innovation. WATCH | What's next for Canada's drone industry?: Canada applies lessons from Ukraine in a new arms race for drones 14 hours ago But, experts ask, should NATO nations be investing billions of dollars in expensive, high-tech weapons systems, such as the F-35 stealth jet and the highly sophisticated, recently ordered River Class destroyers? Or, should there be more emphasis on cheaper, disposable technology? While acknowledging the debate is not mutually exclusive, critics of high-spending, high-tech plans point at how multimillion-dollar Russian tanks are being disabled and destroyed by small, inexpensive — in some cases garage-built — drones. The emphasis on quantity over quality is something NATO should be paying closer attention to as it builds out its rearmament plans, said a Canadian arms control expert. "This is a long, long running debate," said Andrew Rasiulis, who once ran the Directorate of Nuclear and Arms Control Policy at the Department of National Defence. "Quantity has a quality of its own, and the Russians have quantity." He said too much should not be made of the fact that Moscow's munitions and equipment are less sophisticated and NATO nations, such as Canada, need to look at their investments not through the lens of spending a certain amount of money, but what makes sense militarily. "What's important is the ability of one side to deter and defend, if necessary, against the other side," Rasiulis said. In many respects, NATO has been here before. When the Cold War reached new heights in the 1980s, the Soviet Union maintained an enormous military presence in Warsaw Pact nations with a ratio of five divisions for every U.S.-led division. NATO made up for that with better technology and nuclear deterrence. Russia was largely equipped with less sophisticated Soviet-designed weapons that benefited from common parts and ammunition, which meant simplified logistics and training. The Chatham House report said despite the Kremlin's record levels of military spending, the current state of its military industry is one of regression — contrary to what the Kremlin would have the world believe. "Production will likely have to be simplified and slowed over the coming years, while Russia will be forced to accept reduced quality of outputs and will suffer from 'innovation stagnation' in its technological research and development," said the report. "These problems are not insurmountable. Russia will continue to muddle through and keep producing systems that are 'good enough' to pose a sustained threat to Ukraine. But being 'good enough' to prolong a war against Ukraine is not the same as being able to keep up with Western (and Chinese) advances in military technology over the longer term." Russian know-how being shared with North Korea It seems, however, the quantity versus quality debate is not only going to be NATO's problem. Defence Intelligence of Ukraine head Kyrylo Budanov said in early June that Russia's proven, basic technological know-how is being shared with North Korea. On July 1, he said Moscow had transferred the first batch of its Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile systems to the regime of Kim Jong-un and had provided technology for mass-producing Iran-designed Shahed-type attack drones. "It will for sure bring changes in the military balance in the region between North Korea and South Korea," Budanov was quoted as saying by Ukrainian media.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
NATO's rearmament reignites age-old defence debate of quantity vs. quality
As NATO nations, including Canada, ramp up rearmament, they are increasingly confronted with various ghosts of the Cold War, notably the resilience of Russian industry and its capacity to be able to deliver weapons — that while often technologically inferior to the West — are "good enough" to wage war. Moscow's ability to produce en masse drones, missiles, aircraft and other weapons of war has been hampered by sanctions and a long-term erosion of quality is taking place. "Russia is currently struggling to build genuinely new and technologically advanced systems," said the report by Mathieu Boulègue, published last month by the U.K.-based Chatham House think-tank. "Instead, it is relying on Soviet-era legacy systems and research. It is also heavily dependent on third-party suppliers to replace essential Western-made components — with import substitutions and domestic production failing to meet requirements." The report, in part, exposes one of the biggest debates going on in the Western defence community right now. The 32 members of the NATO military alliance have agreed to drastically expand military spending, aiming to deliver five per cent of their gross domestic product for defence spending by 2035. The emphasis, especially for Canada, is in high-tech innovation. WATCH | What's next for Canada's drone industry?: But, experts ask, should NATO nations be investing billions of dollars in expensive, high-tech weapons systems, such as the F-35 stealth jet and the highly sophisticated, recently ordered River Class destroyers? Or, should there be more emphasis on cheaper, disposable technology? While acknowledging the debate is not mutually exclusive, critics of high-spending, high-tech plans point at how multimillion-dollar Russian tanks are being disabled and destroyed by small, inexpensive — in some cases garage-built — drones. The emphasis on quantity over quality is something NATO should be paying closer attention to as it builds out its rearmament plans, said a Canadian arms control expert. "This is a long, long running debate," said Andrew Rasiulis, who once ran the Directorate of Nuclear and Arms Control Policy at the Department of National Defence. "Quantity has a quality of its own, and the Russians have quantity." He said too much should not be made of the fact that Moscow's munitions and equipment are less sophisticated and NATO nations, such as Canada, need to look at their investments not through the lens of spending a certain amount of money, but what makes sense militarily. "What's important is the ability of one side to deter and defend, if necessary, against the other side," Rasiulis said. In many respects, NATO has been here before. When the Cold War reached new heights in the 1980s, the Soviet Union maintained an enormous military presence in Warsaw Pact nations with a ratio of five divisions for every U.S.-led division. NATO made up for that with better technology and nuclear deterrence. Russia was largely equipped with less sophisticated Soviet-designed weapons that benefited from common parts and ammunition, which meant simplified logistics and training. The Chatham House report said despite the Kremlin's record levels of military spending, the current state of its military industry is one of regression — contrary to what the Kremlin would have the world believe. "Production will likely have to be simplified and slowed over the coming years, while Russia will be forced to accept reduced quality of outputs and will suffer from 'innovation stagnation' in its technological research and development," said the report. "These problems are not insurmountable. Russia will continue to muddle through and keep producing systems that are 'good enough' to pose a sustained threat to Ukraine. But being 'good enough' to prolong a war against Ukraine is not the same as being able to keep up with Western (and Chinese) advances in military technology over the longer term." Russian know-how being shared with North Korea It seems, however, the quantity versus quality debate is not only going to be NATO's problem. Defence Intelligence of Ukraine head Kyrylo Budanov said in early June that Russia's proven, basic technological know-how is being shared with North Korea. On July 1, he said Moscow had transferred the first batch of its Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile systems to the regime of Kim Jong-un and had provided technology for mass-producing Iran-designed Shahed-type attack drones. "It will for sure bring changes in the military balance in the region between North Korea and South Korea," Budanov was quoted as saying by Ukrainian media. Recent information, he said, indicates that North Korean workers are being trained at Russian plants, including facilities in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, in Tatarstan, where modified Shahed drones are assembled.
Business Insider
23-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Russia is pouring money into its war machine — but it's still struggling to create new, advanced systems
Russia is spending record amounts on defense. But it's falling behind in building the advanced, modern military it needs for future wars, according to a new report. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered sweeping sanctions that not only damaged its ability to procure advanced technology but also weakened its military-scientific base, wrote Mathieu Boulègue, a consulting fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at London-based Chatham House, in a report published on Monday. "This damage, in turn, affects the rate of military innovation and R&D. More importantly, it determines how the Kremlin will wage war in the future," wrote Boulègue, a specialist in Eurasian security and defense issues. Russia is set to spend 6.3% of its GDP on defense this year — a post-Cold War high. However, the country's military-industrial complex has been "degraded" by trade restrictions and the demands of wartime production, according to Boulègue. "Russia's ability to produce military hardware has been severely impacted, and its ability to innovate and adopt modern military technology constrained as a result of these challenges," he added. With sanctions cutting off access to critical imports, Russia has been left scrambling to replace advanced components with inferior stand-ins. As early as August 2022, Russian state-owned carrier Aeroflot began stripping spare parts from working aircraft due to sanctions-induced supply shortages. In October, Russia filmed its troops using a Soviet howitzer, showing its military stockpiles were under strain. Boulègue assessed that the state of Russia's military-industrial complex is one of regression, not progress. "Russia will likely have to simplify and slow its military production, accept reduced quality of outputs and manage a form of 'innovation stagnation' in its research and development," he wrote, referring to Russia's state armament programme from 2025 to 2034. As a result, Russia's pathway to military innovation is likely to remain incremental — built on small tweaks to old systems rather than genuine breakthroughs. "Innovation generally takes the form of integrating technological solutions directly into proven, older-generation systems — which in turn makes them 'modern,'" Boulègue wrote. Russia's military sector has adopted a "retain-and-adapt" approach because military production is no longer innovation-led. "In other words, Russia 'innovates' through 'smart adaptation' under technical and economical constraints that have a negative, cumulative effect at the tactical level," he added. In the short term, Russia's military-industrial complex will likely keep producing systems that are "good enough" to pose a clear and constant threat to Ukraine, NATO, and the West. But its long-term ability to compete with advanced military powers is eroding. The stresses on Russia's military-industry complex also mean the broader economy is under increasing strain, despite initial signs of wartime growth. "The war economy brings 'good' macroeconomic results, but is causing real-world problems such as increased inflation, decreasing wages and purchasing power, and a liquidity crisis in the banking sector," wrote Boulègue. Russia's economy has shown signs of fatigue recently. Manufacturing activity contracted sharply in June as weak demand and a strong ruble affected exports and jobs. Low oil prices are also hitting the country's all-important oil and gas sector. Meanwhile, a demographic crisis and competition for labor with the military are also hurting the economy in the long and short term.
