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Time of India
26-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Wall St Week Ahead: Tariffs, Fed, tech results headline jam-packed markets week
A looming U.S. deadline for more severe global tariffs is among a barrage of upcoming events threatening to disrupt an increasingly calm U.S. stock market that has set a string of all-time highs. President Donald Trump has extended a deadline to August 1 for when higher levies will take effect on an array of trading partners unless deals are struck. That could boost market volatility heading into next Friday. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category PGDM Design Thinking Data Analytics Technology Others Public Policy healthcare Management Product Management Digital Marketing Healthcare Data Science MBA Degree Finance CXO Operations Management Artificial Intelligence Data Science Cybersecurity Leadership Project Management others MCA Skills you'll gain: Financial Analysis & Decision Making Quantitative & Analytical Skills Organizational Management & Leadership Innovation & Entrepreneurship Duration: 24 Months IMI Delhi Post Graduate Diploma in Management (Online) Starts on Sep 1, 2024 Get Details Much more is on the calendar that could move markets. Investors will watch the Federal Reserve 's monetary policy meeting, the monthly U.S. employment report and earnings reports from megacap companies Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. "There is going to be a lot to digest for markets into next week," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. "Expectations from the markets have gone up relative to several months ago," Miskin said. "So it's just going to be another big week for trying to meet loftier expectations." Live Events RECORD HIGHS, FALLING VOLATILITY The benchmark S&P 500 kept tallying new all-time highs during the week. Equities have recovered from a plunge after Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" tariff announcement set off fears of a recession that have since ebbed. The S&P 500 has surged 28% since its low for the year a week later, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has jumped 38% in that time. "We just got three years of return in three and a half months," said Chris Galipeau, senior market strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute. "The equity market needs to consolidate this move." Market volatility measures have eased considerably. The Cboe Volatility Index spiked to 60 in April, but has been below its long-term median of 17.6 for most of July and on Wednesday posted its lowest close in five months. However, pockets of volatility have emerged in the past week. Eye-popping gains in highly shorted stocks such as Kohl's and Opendoor Technologies heralded the possible return of a "meme stock" craze that could signal some over-exuberance in risk appetite, at least among retail investors. Meanwhile, the record-setting rally has lifted valuations to historically expensive levels. The S&P 500 was trading at 22.6 times earnings estimates, well above its long-term average P/E ratio of 15.8, according to LSEG Datastream, which could make the market vulnerable to disappointments in the coming week. Higher tariffs on the European Union and many other countries could take effect on August 1. Trump had paused many of the most severe of his reciprocal tariffs in April, following the bout of extreme market volatility. "There is a particular belief and conviction that the market has that the administration just won't be as aggressive as they've been threatening because of what was experienced in early April," said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab. "The next hurdle in the trade (situation) is really to see what sticks." FED OFFICIALS AWAIT TARIFF IMPACT The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady in its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, as central bank officials want more data to determine if tariffs are worsening inflation before they ease rates further. But tensions between the White House and the central bank over monetary policy have heightened, with Trump repeatedly denouncing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates. Two of the Fed Board's Trump appointees have articulated reasons for supporting a rate cut this month. A packed week of corporate results includes Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook parent Meta Platforms , four of the "Magnificent Seven," whose stocks heavily influence benchmark indexes because of the companies' massive market values. With about 30% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, overall second-quarter earnings are on track for a 7.7% increase from a year ago, according to LSEG IBES. That would beat a 5.8% estimated rise on July 1. The week ends with the monthly U.S. employment report on Friday. Employment in July is expected to have increased by 102,000 jobs, according to Reuters data as of Thursday, after rising by 147,000 jobs in June. "We've had relatively strong economic data that almost shows a modest re-acceleration in the economy in June and I think markets are priced to reflect this re-acceleration," Miskin said. ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
Kuwait Times
29-06-2025
- Business
- Kuwait Times
Wall St Week AheadInvestors eye US jobs data as stocks hit record highs
NEW YORK: Investors who have been captivated by recent geopolitical events are poised to shift their attention in the coming week to key economic data and policy developments to see if the torrid rally in US stocks extends higher. The benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both tallied record highs on Friday for the first time in months, helped by optimism about interest-rate cuts and trade deals. Easing tensions in the Middle East also paved the way for the latest bump higher in stocks, as a conflict between the Zionist entity and Iran appeared to calm after missile strikes between the two nations had set the world on edge. Focus will shift to Washington in the coming week. President Donald Trump wants his fellow Republicans to pass a sweeping tax-cut and spending bill by July 4. Investors also get a crucial view into the US economy with the monthly employment report due on Thursday. US stock markets are closed on Friday, July 4, for the US Independence Day holiday. Citigroup's US economic surprise index has been weakening, indicating that data has been missing Wall Street expectations, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. 'After some softer May data, the June data is really going to be under a microscope,' Miskin said. 'If the data deteriorates more, it may get the market's attention.' US employment is expected to have climbed by 110,000 jobs in June, according to a Reuters poll — a slowdown from May's 139,000 increase. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell in the prior week, but the unemployment rate could rise in June as more laid-off people struggle to find work. 'The labor market right now is front and center over the next few weeks,' said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. Employment data could factor into expectations for when the Federal Reserve will next cut interest rates, with investors also watching to see if inflation is calming enough to allow for lower rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been wary that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation, a view he told the US Congress this week. Some Fed officials have talked about a stronger case for cuts. Trading of fed funds futures in the past week indicated ramped-up bets for more easing this year. The level of tariffs could come into sharper view with a July 9 deadline for higher levies on a broad set of countries. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday said trade deals with other countries could be done by the Sept 1 Labor Day holiday, citing 18 main US trading partners. Stocks have rebounded sharply since plunging in April following Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement, as the president pulled back on some of the most severe tariffs. This eased fears about a recession, but markets could remain sensitive to trade developments. Investors also will focus on the US fiscal bill in Congress for indication of the extent of stimulus in the legislation and how much it could widen federal deficits. With a roller-coaster first half nearly complete, the S&P 500 is up about 5 percent so far in 2025. Over the past 15 years, July has been a strong month for stocks, with the S&P 500 increasing 2.9 percent in July on average, Wedbush analysts noted in a report this week. Second-quarter US corporate earnings season kicks off in the coming weeks, with concerns over how much tariffs may be biting into company profits or affecting consumer spending. S&P 500 earnings are expected to have climbed 5.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES data. 'We've been in a geopolitically focused market over the past several weeks,' said Josh Jamner, senior investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. 'I think the dawn of earnings season ... will refocus the market back towards fundamentals.' — Reuters
Economic Times
28-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Wall Street Week Ahead-Investors eye US jobs data as stocks hit record highs
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Investors who have been captivated by recent geopolitical events are poised to shift their attention in the coming week to key economic data and policy developments to see if the torrid rally in U.S. stocks extends benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both tallied record highs on Friday for the first time in months, helped by optimism about interest-rate cuts and trade deals . Easing tensions in the Middle East also paved the way for the latest bump higher in stocks, as a conflict between Israel and Iran appeared to calm after missile strikes between the two nations had set the world on will shift to Washington in the coming week. President Donald Trump wants his fellow Republicans to pass a sweeping tax-cut and spending bill by July also get a crucial view into the U.S. economy with the monthly employment report due on Thursday. U.S. stock markets are closed on Friday, July 4, for the U.S. Independence Day U.S. economic surprise index has been weakening, indicating that data has been missing Wall Street expectations, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments."After some softer May data, the June data is really going to be under a microscope," Miskin said. "If the data deteriorates more, it may get the market's attention."U.S. employment is expected to have climbed by 110,000 jobs in June, according to a Reuters poll -- a slowdown from May's 139,000 on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell in the prior week, but the unemployment rate could rise in June as more laid-off people struggle to find work."The labor market right now is front and center over the next few weeks," said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth data could factor into expectations for when the Federal Reserve will next cut interest rates, with investors also watching to see if inflation is calming enough to allow for lower Chair Jerome Powell has been wary that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation, a view he told the U.S. Congress this week. Some Fed officials have talked about a stronger case for cuts. Trading of fed funds futures in the past week indicated ramped-up bets for more easing this level of tariffs could come into sharper view with a July 9 deadline for higher levies on a broad set of countries. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday said trade deals with other countries could be done by the Sept. 1 Labor Day holiday, citing 18 main U.S. trading have rebounded sharply since plunging in April following Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, as the president pulled back on some of the most severe tariffs. This eased fears about a recession, but markets could remain sensitive to trade also will focus on the U.S. fiscal bill in Congress for indication of the extent of stimulus in the legislation and how much it could widen federal a roller-coaster first half nearly complete, the S&P 500 is up about 5% so far in 2025. Over the past 15 years, July has been a strong month for stocks, with the S&P 500 increasing 2.9% in July on average, Wedbush analysts noted in a report this U.S. corporate earnings season kicks off in the coming weeks, with concerns over how much tariffs may be biting into company profits or affecting consumer spending. S&P 500 earnings are expected to have climbed 5.9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES data."We've been in a geopolitically focused market over the past several weeks," said Josh Jamner, senior investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. "I think the dawn of earnings season ... will refocus the market back towards fundamentals."
Time of India
28-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Wall Street Week Ahead-Investors eye US jobs data as stocks hit record highs
Investors who have been captivated by recent geopolitical events are poised to shift their attention in the coming week to key economic data and policy developments to see if the torrid rally in U.S. stocks extends higher. The benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both tallied record highs on Friday for the first time in months, helped by optimism about interest-rate cuts and trade deals . Easing tensions in the Middle East also paved the way for the latest bump higher in stocks, as a conflict between Israel and Iran appeared to calm after missile strikes between the two nations had set the world on edge. Focus will shift to Washington in the coming week. President Donald Trump wants his fellow Republicans to pass a sweeping tax-cut and spending bill by July 4. Investors also get a crucial view into the U.S. economy with the monthly employment report due on Thursday. U.S. stock markets are closed on Friday, July 4, for the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Citigroup's U.S. economic surprise index has been weakening, indicating that data has been missing Wall Street expectations, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. Live Events "After some softer May data, the June data is really going to be under a microscope," Miskin said. "If the data deteriorates more, it may get the market's attention." U.S. employment is expected to have climbed by 110,000 jobs in June, according to a Reuters poll -- a slowdown from May's 139,000 increase. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell in the prior week, but the unemployment rate could rise in June as more laid-off people struggle to find work. "The labor market right now is front and center over the next few weeks," said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. Employment data could factor into expectations for when the Federal Reserve will next cut interest rates, with investors also watching to see if inflation is calming enough to allow for lower rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been wary that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation, a view he told the U.S. Congress this week. Some Fed officials have talked about a stronger case for cuts. Trading of fed funds futures in the past week indicated ramped-up bets for more easing this year. The level of tariffs could come into sharper view with a July 9 deadline for higher levies on a broad set of countries. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday said trade deals with other countries could be done by the Sept. 1 Labor Day holiday, citing 18 main U.S. trading partners. Stocks have rebounded sharply since plunging in April following Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, as the president pulled back on some of the most severe tariffs. This eased fears about a recession, but markets could remain sensitive to trade developments. Investors also will focus on the U.S. fiscal bill in Congress for indication of the extent of stimulus in the legislation and how much it could widen federal deficits. With a roller-coaster first half nearly complete, the S&P 500 is up about 5% so far in 2025. Over the past 15 years, July has been a strong month for stocks, with the S&P 500 increasing 2.9% in July on average, Wedbush analysts noted in a report this week. Second-quarter U.S. corporate earnings season kicks off in the coming weeks, with concerns over how much tariffs may be biting into company profits or affecting consumer spending. S&P 500 earnings are expected to have climbed 5.9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES data. "We've been in a geopolitically focused market over the past several weeks," said Josh Jamner, senior investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. "I think the dawn of earnings season ... will refocus the market back towards fundamentals."
Yomiuri Shimbun
21-05-2025
- Business
- Yomiuri Shimbun
Moody's Downgrade Ripples through Bond Market, Causes Worries for Stocks
Reuters file photo Signage is seen outside the Moody's Corporation headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 12, 2021. NEW YORK, May 20 (Reuters) – Moody's U.S. debt downgrade is raising concerns that investors could reevaluate their appetite for U.S. government bonds, with the potential for rising yields to put pressure on stocks that are trading at elevated valuations. Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. debt rating by a notch late last week due to mounting government debt and rising interest expenses has rekindled fears of a broader investor reappraisal of U.S. sovereign debt, which could drive up borrowing costs across the economy. 'Every time something like this happens, investors just think maybe they should shift a little more out of the U.S.,' said Campe Goodman, fixed-income portfolio manager at Wellington Management Company. Benchmark 10-year yields, which influence mortgage rates as well as borrowing costs for companies and consumers, rose to over 4.5% early on Monday but the selloff then moderated. Yields move inversely to prices. On Tuesday, the bond market selloff continued, with the 10-year yield last seen at 4.48%, slightly above where it closed on Monday. Longer-dated 30-year yields rose more sharply, hitting a high of over 5% on Monday, the highest since November 2023, and flirting with that level again on Tuesday. Higher yields have repercussions for stocks, analysts and investors say, as they represent higher borrowing costs for companies as well as greater investment competition from fixed income. Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments, said a rise in 10-year yields beyond 4.5% could be a headwind for stocks. 'I think what markets are grappling with, is if the 30-year is breaking out, does that mean the rest of the curve is next?' Miskin said. Over the past few years, stocks have come under pressure during some instances when Treasury yields moved above 4.5%, with sharply rising yields often negatively correlated with stock performance. One prominent example is late 2023 when the S&P 500 slid sharply as the 10-year yield ascended to 5%. In a note on Monday, Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson said 4.5% on the 10-year yield has been 'an important level' for equity market valuation over the past two years, with stocks tending to face valuation pressure when 10-year yields breach that threshold. The price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500, based on earnings estimates for the next 12 months, was at 21.7 as of Monday, well above its long-term average of 15.8, according to LSEG Datastream. Wilson, however, said while a break above 4.5% in the 10-year yield 'can lead to modest valuation compression … we would be buyers of such a dip,' he said in the note, citing the recent U.S.-China trade truce as positive for equity markets. The downgrade has come as Republicans in Congress seek to approve a sweeping package of tax cuts aimed at boosting economic growth that at the same time could add trillions to the $36 trillion U.S. public debt pile, exacerbating concerns highlighted by Moody's over the U.S. fiscal trajectory. It also follows a detente in the trade war sparked by President Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs on U.S. trade partners. While tariffs are largely seen as being a drag for the economy, a recent trade breakthrough with China had sparked market optimism that their impact would be more muted than feared. 'You move from fears of stagflation, which was low growth and tariff-led inflation, to a better growth backdrop but probably not a better inflation or fiscal backdrop, as you still have this big tax bill getting pushed through,' said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird. Federal Reserve officials on Monday said the Moody's downgrade could have repercussions for the U.S. economy by raising the cost of capital. The ratings cut was unlikely to trigger forced selling of Treasuries, as major fixed-income indices only require securities to maintain an investment-grade rating or have no specific sovereign rating guidelines, analysts at BofA Securities said in a note on Monday. Still, it could cause the yield curve to steepen, they said, with long-dated yields rising due to worsening investor sentiment around the long-term prospects of U.S. debt. 'There could be a time when the bond market gets quite worried that we're continuing to stimulate an economy that's not weak,' Goodman said.
